Dominic Smith as 1B of the future?

[Eye Black]

I honestly never thought I would be advocating for a first baseman addition this season. I was certain one of Thames or Aguilar could at least be passable at the position, but now more than one-third of the way through the season the Brewers have gotten almost no production from the 1B position. Only the Rockies, Orioles, and Royals rank worse according to Baseball Reference’s Position Performance by Wins Above Average.

 

So what about looking for a 1B for not only now, but the next few years as well?

 

That question brings me to a possible trade option. There is a good chance first baseman Dominic Smith will get traded this season.

 

Dominic Smith’s route to regular playing time with the Mets is blocked for the foreseeable future with the emergence of Peter Alonso. Smith is at the stage where he is a post-hype prospect, but is still just 23 years old (turns 24 in June). The Mets have tried to play him briefly in the outfield in past seasons, but have been hesitant to go that route with him long term. I can’t imagine they will carry a 1B only bench bat on their roster the entire season. There are rumors they are trying to build up his trade value (for which he is obliging by hitting for a 176 wRC+ and 1.006 OPS, albeit in just 70 plate appearances).

 

I don’t think he will be dirt cheap, and the requested return of either MLB ready players or prospects will likely be somewhat dependent upon how the Mets season goes between now and mid-July. I think the Brewers would be better suited to matchup on prospects (Turang, Ray, Brown, etc.), than MLB ready contributors (maybe Burnes?).

 

I am not sure if the Brewers would prefer their 1B of the future to have greater positional flexibility than their current iterations. If that is the case, Smith is probably not their guy. Smith could however represent an opportunity to add a player that could be penciled in as a regular for the foreseeable future (he isn’t eligible for free agency until 2025).

 

I know 1B is usually an easier position to fill from the scrap heap than most, but it seems to have dogged the Brewers in more seasons than not since the end of Prince’s reign. Is it crazy to look for longer term solutions at 1B? Could Dominic Smith be the answer?

[MrTPlush]

Dominic Smith is nice in theory, but probably way to complicated to match up and agree on. Not to discount his age, but before his small sample this year he has been pretty bad. We need an upgrade and someone we can be confident will be an upgrade. I don’t know Smith can be that. Last thing we need is to trade meaningful value for a guy and watch him struggle too...we just can’t.

 

I think there will likely be easier to acquire, cheaper, and more reliable options out there.

[DHonks]

Just looked at his numbers and he’d be a great candidate to acquire. He’s young, always been very young for his levels, has a track-record of producing, and left-handed. What’s fair value?

[pacopete4]

Not sure they’ll want to part with him. They have two young, possibly productive, bats that are controlled for awhile. Smith can play LF so that helps them out.

[Eye Black]

Smith can play LF so that helps them out.

They just recently started playing him in left field over the past week, but only once left him there for an entire game so far. He looked awkward in LF when they experimented with it in past years, and it seems Mickey Callaway has been hesitant to play him there until basically being forced to figure out how to get his bat in the lineup more often. I am skeptical having him play in LF with regularity is a viable option, it would seemingly be the equivalent of Eric Thames playing in the outfield on a daily basis.

[SRB]

All depends on what the Brewers scouting department thinks, because his stats certainly are not inspiring for a 1B-only prospect, even if he is still young. If we are giving up a big prospect haul, I'd rather target an established veteran under team control for a shorter period of time. (Would San Francisco consider shopping Brandon Belt?)

[Brew crew 92]

The idea of parting with the prospects required to acquire Smith when the first base position is the easiest position in baseball to upgrade doesn’t make sense to me. If the Brewers decide to upgrade at that position for this year, would think the rental route, higher salaried, middling prospect return would be the preferred route.

[MNBrew]

I'm not convinced Thames is anything more than he's been the past 2+ years: Good power when he actually connects, but he just doesn't make enough contact in general. Aguilar has enough of a better track record that I'm more willing to think he's still part of the long-term picture.

 

If 1-year contract (with an option) guys Moustakas and Grandal like Milwaukee enough that they could be here for a while, and with Shaw still a very viable part of the mix, we have plenty of guys who can cover 1B sufficiently for this year & next without having to go get someone else for a while, plus he's pretty deft fielding-wise.

[Smichaelis9]

I'm not convinced Thames is anything more than he's been the past 2+ years: Good power when he actually connects, but he just doesn't make enough contact in general. Aguilar has enough of a better track record that I'm more willing to think he's still part of the long-term picture.

 

If 1-year contract (with an option) guys Moustakas and Grandal like Milwaukee enough that they could be here for a while, and with Shaw still a very viable part of the mix, we have plenty of guys who can cover 1B sufficiently for this year & next without having to go get someone else for a while, plus he's pretty deft fielding-wise.

I'm sorry but how does Aguilar have any more of a track record than Thames does? Aguilar's had one very good first half and one other decent half of a season. Thames is OPSing .838 in his three years here (before the home run today) and Aguilar is OPSing .833 in those same three years. They have extremely similar track records.

 

I can buy the part that he's more of the long term picture, but for this year, when we are competing for a serious playoff run, we might not have the luxury of affording Aguilar the time to keep working through this as a right handed hitting, first base only player...

[coolhandluke121]

Thames actually has a much better overall track record in his professional career. Aguilar had an .800 OPS for nearly 10 years in the minors, and wasn't especially young at any stop. That is horrible. He also had a sub-.800 OPS away from Coors in 2017, with pretty favorable platoon chances to boot, so even this talk of him having 2 good years under his belt is completely overblown.

[adambr2]

Thames must have the quietest. 850 OPS you'll ever see. We definitely don't win today without his offense.

[timpep]

Thames must have the quietest. 850 OPS you'll ever see. We definitely don't win today without his offense.

 

Amen. Every time I see talk about how we need to move Thames I just shake my head.

[rickh150]

Thames, Aguilar, Shaw, Braun... we have 1B covered with big league sluggers, albeit with many struggling at this moment.

[MrTPlush]

Thames, Aguilar, Shaw, Braun... we have 1B covered with big league sluggers, albeit with many struggling at this moment.

 

Can he though? Aguilar has been the biggest pile of dinosaur dung this year and Braun has yet to appear there. I am just really questioning the validity of Braun being an option there.

[JohnBriggs12]

Too bad Stearns gave up on Garrett Cooper. Two years ago Brewers had Thames, Aguilar in the majors and Cooper raking at AAA. Right now of those three, I'm not sure Cooper isn't the best bet going forward.

[stoutdude04]

Too bad Stearns gave up on Garrett Cooper. Two years ago Brewers had Thames, Aguilar in the majors and Cooper raking at AAA. Right now of those three, I'm not sure Cooper isn't the best bet going forward.

 

Possibly, but we probably wouldn't have said that during the first half of last year.

 

I dont think we should spend the prospects to get Smith. Considering 1b is typically a position easy to find players/an upgrade.

[Eye Black]

Bump.

[billymac]

Surplus:

D. Smith - 6.9

 

Lutz - 7.8

Claudio - 6.4

Corey Ray - 4.8

 

Trade simulator site would have Lutz as a slight overpay, Claudio as a little below value.

 

I'd trade Claudio and a lower level prospect for sure for Smith. I think Stearns making a deal with Mets in general works out no matter which way it goes.

[long ball]

Interesting name. I'd be cool with it. Might need to add a RH bench bat as insurance, but I'd be interested.

[JohnBriggs12]

Mets are said to be wanting to unload a bad contract in a package with Smith. One such contract is that of Jed Lowrie who's owed $10 million. Lowrie was out most of last year with only token appearances in September. Since the Brewers are also without a 3B at the moment, and Lowrie has fair amount of experience there, it might not be a bad idea to take on that contract to get Smith assuming it means Brewers would not have to offer much in return. If Lowrie should show he's healthy in Arizona and he could return to something close to his 2018 form, then the Brewers will have filled two holes. If he doesn't look up to it in Arizona, then they can look to deal for a 3B, or they could bring in a Jake Lamb as competition for Lowrie and perhaps he can rebound to his past prowess.

[Oxy]

Getting Lowrie and Smith for very little would be pretty ideal. Arcia, Urias, and Hiura all have options so we could still pursue better FAs. Lowrie can't seem to stay healthy anyway, but getting Smith with him would be worth the salary and the age/injury problems. When he is healthy there should be a place for a versatile veteran switch hitter, particularly on a 26 man roster.

[Smichaelis9]

Mets are said to be wanting to unload a bad contract in a package with Smith. One such contract is that of Jed Lowrie who's owed $10 million. Lowrie was out most of last year with only token appearances in September. Since the Brewers are also without a 3B at the moment, and Lowrie has fair amount of experience there, it might not be a bad idea to take on that contract to get Smith assuming it means Brewers would not have to offer much in return. If Lowrie should show he's healthy in Arizona and he could return to something close to his 2018 form, then the Brewers will have filled two holes. If he doesn't look up to it in Arizona, then they can look to deal for a 3B, or they could bring in a Jake Lamb as competition for Lowrie and perhaps he can rebound to his past prowess.

I’ve had a very similar scenario running through my head all day. I’d definitely be a fan of a move like this...

[Eye Black]

From CBS Sports yesterday, MLB hot stove: 10 teams that could take advantage of Mets' desire to unload salary and trade for Dominic Smith. The Brewers make much more sense to me than most of the other teams on that list, and they are definitely overstating the Brewers “tight budget” this offseason. Now that the Brewers have cleared a bunch of payroll space this is the perfect example of how payroll flexibility can be used to their advantage in adding talent.

 

It seems like the acquisition cost of Dominic Smith paired with Jed Lowrie should be very low. Maybe something along the lines of Tyrone Taylor or C.J. Hinojosa, and an lower level org arm in return?

[PeaveyFury]

Mike Axisa (who wrote this and another Brewers article yesterday) and Nightengale seem to be the two guys that have run with this 'tight budget' nonsense....

[pacopete4]

Boy would this be a great trade if they can make it happen. Smith could be the answer at 1B while giving us another younger/controlled player.