Bucks off-season thread (non-draft)

[wallus]

What in the heck is Al Horford thinking?

 

He likely has a team that will offer him a multi year contract worth quite a bit more. At his age, this will likely be his last chance for a good deal.

[tmwiese55]

Yea Horford is locking in more guaranteed money than 30 mil, that's all he's worried about and he's going to be right. Sounds like he's getting at least a 3 year if not a 4 year deal from someone.

 

For Ball, my take is that he's capped out due to next to chance of him ever being a good shooter. His shot form is an absolute trainwreck. Does a lot of other things well but probably capped out as a role player imo/borderline starter

[FVBrewerFan]

Yea Horford is locking in more guaranteed money than 30 mil, that's all he's worried about and he's going to be right. Sounds like he's getting at least a 3 year if not a 4 year deal from someone.

 

For Ball, my take is that he's capped out due to next to chance of him ever being a good shooter. His shot form is an absolute trainwreck. Does a lot of other things well but probably capped out as a role player imo/borderline starter

 

Which is ironic, because he could have been a good fit with LeBron, Davis, and whoever the 3rd guys is they bring in. Just play great defense and feed the ball to the three scorers.

[tmwiese55]

Yea Horford is locking in more guaranteed money than 30 mil, that's all he's worried about and he's going to be right. Sounds like he's getting at least a 3 year if not a 4 year deal from someone.

 

For Ball, my take is that he's capped out due to next to chance of him ever being a good shooter. His shot form is an absolute trainwreck. Does a lot of other things well but probably capped out as a role player imo/borderline starter

 

Which is ironic, because he could have been a good fit with LeBron, Davis, and whoever the 3rd guys is they bring in. Just play great defense and feed the ball to the three scorers.

 

I could see that. However, I'd greatly value shooting/spacing next to LBJ/Davis. you need that lane as unlogged as possible. And I'd say Ball to be his best would need the ball in his hands and obviously LBJ is going to be doing most of that. But yea with Ball's seemingly strong bball IQ and vision yea I could see him finding a way to help and of course he'd be great open court. Best role if in LA probably off the bench getting most of his mins when LBJ is resting.

[monkeyman343434]

(regarding the Bucks current FAs)

Hey CLH or anyone who knows the CBA rules, if the Bucks hypothetically let Khris walk, does that affect at all what the Bucks can offer Lopez or Mirocic? I'm guessing that doesn't affect Brogdon at all because he's a RFA, and also doesn't affect Hill at all considering his is an option.

 

I absolutely HATE letting an asset walk for nothing, but I'm wondering if taking a step backwards, by letting Midds walk, for next year would allow them to reload better for the next, say 3 year window after that? I would think if they exercised Hill's 18M option, that 18M expiring contract would be very valuable at the trade deadline next year - if that's the direction they decided to go at that point - didn't look like they were true contenders. Also same could be said for Ersan's expiring next year as well? Just throwing out thoughts. My guess is they will resign Midds to that 5yr/190M contract (yuck, imo), and do what they can to resign Brogdon, but sounds like they might let Lopez (can't afford/can't fit due to CBA) and Mirocic walk. I'm just not seeing how that team competes next year. How do they fill out the rest of the roster? Does the rest of the roster have to be minimum salary guys?

[coolhandluke121]

(regarding the Bucks current FAs)

Hey CLH or anyone who knows the CBA rules, if the Bucks hypothetically let Khris walk, does that affect at all what the Bucks can offer Lopez or Mirocic? I'm guessing that doesn't affect Brogdon at all because he's a RFA, and also doesn't affect Hill at all considering his is an option.

 

I absolutely HATE letting an asset walk for nothing, but I'm wondering if taking a step backwards, by letting Midds walk, for next year would allow them to reload better for the next, say 3 year window after that? I would think if they exercised Hill's 18M option, that 18M expiring contract would be very valuable at the trade deadline next year - if that's the direction they decided to go at that point - didn't look like they were true contenders. Also same could be said for Ersan's expiring next year as well? Just throwing out thoughts. My guess is they will resign Midds to that 5yr/190M contract (yuck, imo), and do what they can to resign Brogdon, but sounds like they might let Lopez (can't afford/can't fit due to CBA) and Mirocic walk. I'm just not seeing how that team competes next year. How do they fill out the rest of the roster? Does the rest of the roster have to be minimum salary guys?

 

Technically Hill's non-guaranteed salary is not the same as a team option. That means they actually have to waive him to save $17m.

 

Letting Khris walk absolutely affects what they can offer others. With all the cap holds on everyone, they have to lose at least one key guy (and probably two) in order to stay below the luxury tax apron. Otherwise, they can use only the tax-payer MLE, which is about $3.5m less than the full MLE. In other words, letting Khris walk probably allows them to pay Lopez $3.5m more.

 

It's real simple to me if Khris is getting max offers elsewhere and pushing the Bucks for the Bird Rights max. You let him walk because that could very well mean he's the only one of your "B" players you have to lose, as opposed to 2 or (god forbid) 3 of them.

 

ETA: Letting Khris walk would also make it much easier to eventually get back under the tax threshold and save your BAE and full MLE for future seasons. You also probably wouldn't have to give up multiple assets to unload Snell. It's just much more sustainable.

[monkeyman343434]

Thanks for your answer, I'm just not knowledgeable when it comes to all the mid-level exemptions, trade exemptions, etc.

 

Basically, I feel like it boils down to if they resign Midds, they just need to bring him, Brogdon, Mirocic, and Hill back and just pay the tax and bring it back. Also seems like under this scenario, Lopez wouldn't resign unless he would be willing to take way less money than he could get anywhere else.

 

If they let Midds walk, could they keep Hill, and still resign Brogdon and Lopez? Maybe if Midds walks, Lopez and Mirocic wouldn't want to come back either though?

 

I guess this is why Horst is getting paid $$$$

[coolhandluke121]

The most they can give Lopez is the full MLE, which is about $9m. I mean, there are ways to create cap space and give him more, but it's pretty much absurd to consider because of how much talent they would have to lose.

 

I want them to pay all the tax as well. That said, if Khris actually gets a 5-year max deal, even I would be willing to accept that the owners just can't pay that much luxury tax.

 

I'm not convinced Lopez gets more than the MLE anywhere except maybe a bad team. He already had one max deal and I think the MLE keeps him in Milwaukee. He seems to like it, and the chemistry did a lot for his image. He has adjusted to the modern NBA better than most lumbering big men, but he's still a lumbering big man and those guys aren't getting paid these days.

 

I think they should be able to keep everyone else if they let Khris walk. They need Hill as a back-up PG and potentially as a trade chip. His expiring contract is valuable to the Bucks or some other team. They need Lopez and they would have the full MLE for him if Khris walks. Brogdon and Mirotic will probably make a combined ~$35m next year. And you don't have to worry about wasting assets to unload Snell. I think that's the best compromise if Khris gets max offers.

[OnTheBlack]

Yea Horford is locking in more guaranteed money than 30 mil, that's all he's worried about and he's going to be right. Sounds like he's getting at least a 3 year if not a 4 year deal from someone.

 

For Ball, my take is that he's capped out due to next to chance of him ever being a good shooter. His shot form is an absolute trainwreck. Does a lot of other things well but probably capped out as a role player imo/borderline starter

 

I remember people saying similar things about Kidd and even Nash. I refuse to believe a 21 year old, 6'7 kid who's an elite passer and a very good defender could be maxed out already. And even if he doesn't turn into a better than 33 pct 3 point shooter, with his ball handling, passing and defense, that right there is extremely valuable. But I guess how highly you think of him depends on what the chances are you think he can overhaul his shooting. You can't have a PG who shoots like Shaq at the line.

 

As for Ingram, I have no idea what his career ends up looking like. But I do know he's got every attribute you need to become a superstar. He's an explosive athlete and he's soooo long. And again, 21 years old.

 

And I think the arrow is pointing up on both of them playing in New Orleans now and getting out and away from LeBron and the Lakers mess. Put them under the radar a bit with a really good-underrated head coach and I think they could really develop.

 

 

As for Horford, I guess maybe some team will surprise me and give him a 3/4 year deal at 20 million per, but if I were him, I'd take the 30+ million this year and then go into free agency next year. Being two years younger than Gasol, I'd think he'd likely get at least the MLE for a few more years meaning he'd end up with 30 this year, and then ~10 the next 2-3 years. So 4 years 60 million. Not sure he's worth more than that.

 

What I did find interesting were all the reports that Horford was headed to Milwaukee right after that came out and then the two wide eye emoji's that Giannis posted that had a lot of people getting worked up. I guess we could trade Hill+Ersan for Horford and sign him for 4 years and 75 million, but I'm pretty sure it was just a story that was created out of almost thin air.

[OnTheBlack]

(regarding the Bucks current FAs)

Hey CLH or anyone who knows the CBA rules, if the Bucks hypothetically let Khris walk, does that affect at all what the Bucks can offer Lopez or Mirocic? I'm guessing that doesn't affect Brogdon at all because he's a RFA, and also doesn't affect Hill at all considering his is an option.

 

I absolutely HATE letting an asset walk for nothing, but I'm wondering if taking a step backwards, by letting Midds walk, for next year would allow them to reload better for the next, say 3 year window after that? I would think if they exercised Hill's 18M option, that 18M expiring contract would be very valuable at the trade deadline next year - if that's the direction they decided to go at that point - didn't look like they were true contenders. Also same could be said for Ersan's expiring next year as well? Just throwing out thoughts. My guess is they will resign Midds to that 5yr/190M contract (yuck, imo), and do what they can to resign Brogdon, but sounds like they might let Lopez (can't afford/can't fit due to CBA) and Mirocic walk. I'm just not seeing how that team competes next year. How do they fill out the rest of the roster? Does the rest of the roster have to be minimum salary guys?

 

 

No, not really. Giannis will making about 35 pct of the salary cap in the near future. The only way they could free up room in order to reload would be by letting pretty much everyone walk this year, try to unload Snell. And then you're left with Giannis, whoever you'd get to sign for 1 year deals(maybe Lopez does, but more likely he goes elsewhere if he sees that we're going to basically tank, which is what we'd be doing if we tried to create cap space next year).

 

And then you'd have to deal with Giannis who has stated he wants to stick around on numerous occasions, but he's also talked about how winning is his top priority and how he wants everyone back.

 

So now you've let Middleton walk because you don't want to overpay him much, you've let Brogdon walk, Hill is almost certainly going to be waived, Lopez may come back at the MLE, but I think you'd create an incentive for him to look elsewhere since the team likely wouldn't be competitive. And you'd do all this in the hopes that you could get a max level player to come to Milwaukee in what is NOT a good looking FA class. AD is almost a given to sign an extension in LA, after that you've got guys like Draymond Green, Andre Drummond and players like that who are the next best players available.

 

So you'd have to tear down this team that won 60 games and was up 2-0 in the ECF's and you'd do so with the hopes that you'd be able to get someone better than Middleton...which is unlikely given the FA class. Your best bet would be Otto Porter and that's really not enough of an upgrade over Middleton to give up all the rest of the guys you'd have to renounce or let go and also risk losing Giannis.

 

So the only logical option(IMO) is to just suck it up and overpay Middleton a few million, agree with him to sign after they conclude the rest of their off-season business so they can still use the full MLE on whomever, re-sign Brogdon and hope that Horst can pull out a couple more rabbits from his hat like he did last year when he dumped some big salaries.

 

But this is why I hope they don't have to part with their 1st rounder. Even being the 30th pick, you at least have a chance to get someone who can contribute and eventually develop. This roster is always going to be real top heavy unless you can get lucky and somehow acquire another All-Star caliber player with Giannis.

[OnTheBlack]

Thanks for your answer, I'm just not knowledgeable when it comes to all the mid-level exemptions, trade exemptions, etc.

 

Basically, I feel like it boils down to if they resign Midds, they just need to bring him, Brogdon, Mirocic, and Hill back and just pay the tax and bring it back. Also seems like under this scenario, Lopez wouldn't resign unless he would be willing to take way less money than he could get anywhere else.

 

If they let Midds walk, could they keep Hill, and still resign Brogdon and Lopez? Maybe if Midds walks, Lopez and Mirocic wouldn't want to come back either though?

 

I guess this is why Horst is getting paid $$$$

 

 

Regardless of the message board opinions, there's almost no chance that Hill is back next year at his salary. He has said he winning is his priority over money and I doubt he ever seriously expected anything other than free agency this year. I'd honestly rather see the Bucks let Lopez go and use their MLE on a PG. Patrick Beverly is younger and a better 3 point shooter. I think because of how bad Bledsoe was on catch and shoot 3's and how erratic he was in the playoffs, people forget that George Hill was bad last year in the post-season and was not very good with the Bucks. He shot 28 pct from 3, and had the worst year of his career. That's not a guy that the Bucks are giving 18 million to next year. They'll find a way to get a veteran backup PG. Hill's more likely to sign for the vets minimum than he is to have the Bucks pay the non-guaranteed money this year.

[nate82]

Reports of Snell and the 30th to the Pistons for Leuer.

 

[FVBrewerFan]

They will waive/extend Leuer creating roughly $6mm in cap space next season. Another very astute move by Horst.

[homer]

Bucks cut $2.1 million off their 2019 cap number and $12.4 million off 2020.

[HiAndTight]

They will waive/extend Leuer creating roughly $6mm in cap space next season. Another very astute move by Horst.

 

Not a particular fan myself. I initially thought he could be protection if we lost Lopez and Mirotic. A stretch 4/5 who can help Giannis. That was based on my memory of him as a Badger. He has not been a good 3 point shooter in the NBA.

 

I saw the debate about draft picks vs cap room....I'm with Patick on this and OTB said he'd be in favor of it if we could get someone of value for Snell and a 1st. Instead, we got just...a guy. Maybe if we extend him, he rediscovers his 3 point shot that he had in college and to be fair, he only attempted more than 1 per game three times in his career and he shot 47 pct, 38 pct and then 29 pct roughly and he's a good rebounder. He's also played on teams that don't exactly use their bigs in that type of role in Memphis and then in Detroit.

 

 

Snell though...he's underrated. He's a guy who can defend the guards and forwards, he's long and he's a 40 pct 3 point shooter during his time in Milwaukee. I feel like if you're going to make this deal, you should be getting back someone better than John Leuer and you should at least get a 2nd rounder coming back.

 

But I'm sure I'll be in the minority on this one.

 

Pretty clear sign that you have an agreement in place with at least Middleton though. I can't see moving Snell, the guy who would be best suited to take over for Middleton(though obviously not as good) to dump salary if you don't have a deal in place with Midds.

[HiAndTight]

Bucks cut $2.1 million off their 2019 cap number and $12.4 million off 2020.

 

I guess it gives you an expiring deal that you could possibly turn around and trade at the deadline as well.

[HiAndTight]

I don't like the trade for New Orleans, but they had no leverage. They didn't do a good job surrounding AD with talent and now he's gone. Those are the breaks. This reminds me of the KG-to-Boston trade. Looks like a stockpile of assets on the surface, but one by one they all end up being poop. Not a fan of Ingram or Ball at all. I honestly think they're awful. Efficiency matters a lot. Those distant future picks could be okay, but I'm sure other stars force their way to LAL and make it unlikely.

 

 

It's almost always underwhelming when a top 5 player in his prime gets traded. It rarely happens, but even then, it's rare.

 

But I don't recall any superstar getting his former team this type of haul. You may not like the young guys, but their upside and talent is totally undeniable. And having a guy like Lonzo Ball running the point for your team gives you SO many options in the backcourt.

 

If I'm the Pelicans, I'm all over the Vandy Guard Garland. That guy only played 4 games last year, but had he played more, I think he'd be in the discussion for 2nd pick with Ja. And you can play the two together because Ball can guard the larger guards(very well) and he's such a great passer your other guard can be the type of player player that's usually forced into playing "PG" because he's not big enough to be a 2. That's one thing that Giannis has done for us. We don't have to worry about positions as much. When Parker was here, it wasn't as important if he was the 3 or 4 because Giannis could handle the tougher assignment. Same idea here.

 

 

There was one team last year in the West that I thought had the chance to really become the next home grown powerhouse, the Kings. They are SOO dangerous.

 

I think the Pelicans could be in that group if Garland ends up being as good as I think he could. And UN-like the Bucks, when their core is hitting its stride, they're just going to keep getting extra picks. Those picks could be top 5 picks or they could be picks in the 20's.

 

The Lakers paid the price for impatience here. They wanted AD this year rather than wait until next year in free agency.

 

 

Oh, and what got me thinking about this again, the Pelicans have them over a barrel again because the Lakers weren't smart enough to make this trade official at the end of July instead of July 6th so they could have enough room to sign another max contract. So now they have to go back to the Pelicans after they gave them everything they had except for that second kidney and try to sweeten the pot even further. The Pelicans will probably end up getting the Lakers 1st rounder from last year or ~5.5 million from the Pelicans.

 

And honestly, if I was New Orleans, I would pass. With so much young talent either on that team are coming into that team, and the disdain that the owners CLEARLY have for the Lakers, I would just straight out refuse to help them acquire another superstar. There is a very real chance that in 3 years the Pelicans are a contender. You want to be playing the Lakers with a 38, but still great LeBron, a prime AD and Kemba Walker/Kyrie/Jimmy Butler or whomever they get?

 

Because if they could get another guy who can handle the ball and defend, I'm thinking Butler in particular, you could REALLY save a lot of milleage on LeBron. If you can't and you're forced to bring in second tier players, LeBron's gonna have to do what LeBron does and it's just going to take that much more of a toll on him. And of course, there's always the risk to AD.

 

 

So actually, I think if I was the Pelicans, I'd be really difficult. I'd make them give up Kuzma also if the Lakers want them to help accommodate them in adding a 3rd superstar.

[nodakfan17]

What bothers me about trading Snell/30 for Leuer is that this is exactly the type of move the Bucks should’ve been on the other side of from 2014-2017 (absorbing salary in exchange for assets when there’s no realistic shot at a championship). I know they traded for Jared Dudley in what appeared to be a shrewd move, but they used the pick they acquired on 30 games of Greivis Vasquez.

[coolhandluke121]

What bothers me about trading Snell/30 for Leuer is that this is exactly the type of move the Bucks should’ve been on the other side of from 2014-2017 (absorbing salary in exchange for assets when there’s no realistic shot at a championship). I know they traded for Jared Dudley in what appeared to be a shrewd move, but they used the pick they acquired on 30 games of Greivis Vasquez.

 

They got a pick swap from Chicago for taking John Salmons off their hands too. Your point stands though. Amazing that they didn't attempt moves like that more often considering how well it worked out when they acquired Dudley and Salmons (giving Salmons an extension that didn't work out was a separate issue).

 

I supposed it's likely that they stretch Leuer, but at some point you have to stop kicking the can down the road. Also, his expiring contract, along with Ersan's and Hill's, could come in handy.

 

In a vacuum, this is decent. Detroit basically paid about $14m for pick #30 ($2m difference this year + Snell's 2020-21 salary). That's a lot. I could have lived with Snell at 15 mpg, but this is a no-brainer considering the Bucks are at risk of being in cap hell.

[tmwiese55]

They will waive/extend Leuer creating roughly $6mm in cap space next season. Another very astute move by Horst.

 

Not a particular fan myself. I initially thought he could be protection if we lost Lopez and Mirotic. A stretch 4/5 who can help Giannis. That was based on my memory of him as a Badger. He has not been a good 3 point shooter in the NBA.

 

I saw the debate about draft picks vs cap room....I'm with Patick on this and OTB said he'd be in favor of it if we could get someone of value for Snell and a 1st. Instead, we got just...a guy. Maybe if we extend him, he rediscovers his 3 point shot that he had in college and to be fair, he only attempted more than 1 per game three times in his career and he shot 47 pct, 38 pct and then 29 pct roughly and he's a good rebounder. He's also played on teams that don't exactly use their bigs in that type of role in Memphis and then in Detroit.

 

 

Snell though...he's underrated. He's a guy who can defend the guards and forwards, he's long and he's a 40 pct 3 point shooter during his time in Milwaukee. I feel like if you're going to make this deal, you should be getting back someone better than John Leuer and you should at least get a 2nd rounder coming back.

 

But I'm sure I'll be in the minority on this one.

 

Pretty clear sign that you have an agreement in place with at least Middleton though. I can't see moving Snell, the guy who would be best suited to take over for Middleton(though obviously not as good) to dump salary if you don't have a deal in place with Midds.

 

Yes your value on Snell is drastically off from the league. He was for sure one that you had to attach something in order to dump his salary, not one to get anything back. Granted, he's probably gotten too bashed here as he is a competent NBA rotation player and at this point we all view him so badly that we think he's unplayable (you know, ignoring that he just did play a bunch for a 60 win team). But at 11ish per year it's way out of line and why you had to attach an asset to move him.

[FVBrewerFan]

Yea, if they really are trying to bring back all of Middleton, Brogdon, and Lopez then something has to give. You free up $6MM in cap space for the 2019-20 season, plus Patty C and Brown have already passed up Snell. Kind of a no-brainer, and Detroit is obviously raking up expiring contracts, which is smart for their situation.

[coolhandluke121]

plus Patty C and Brown have already passed up Snell.

 

Don't forget DiVincenzo. He was ahead of both of them when training camp ended, and I expect him to be again. I don't think his shooting struggles were any indication of what type of shooter he's going to be over the course of the career.

[adambr2]

Snell being packaged with the #30 pick for Leuer. 4M saved for next season and 12M for 2020-21.

[tmwiese55]

Snell being packaged with the #30 pick for Leuer. 4M saved for next season and 12M for 2020-21.

 

Presumably they'll waive Leuer(if can't find another trade) which would bring this years savings down closer to 10 mil, which could be important for resigning everyone else. Would obviously slightly lower next years savings though too. I'm sure they're exploring using his contract in trades right now too.

[monkeyman343434]

With the 30 and Snell now gone, how do they fill out the rest of the roster this year?

9 spots seem to be given: Giannis, Middleton, Bledsoe, Brogdon, Ersan, Donte, Wilson, Brown, and Pat C.

Hopefully 2 more in Lopez and Mirocic. Maybe Gasol? Do they get a couple other vets to sign for the minimum? UDFAs? - find another Christian Wood perhaps but actually keep him?

 

That's the one issue of having to deal away the #30 this year, and seemingly having dealt away a lot of future picks, is it becomes a lot more difficult to find cheap role players to balance out the roster with Giannis' and Khris' max deals, as well as Bledsoe and Brogdon's larger contracts. (If they don't do whatever it takes to re-sign Brogdon after this trade, I'll lose my mind)