Bucks off-season thread (non-draft)

[coolhandluke121]

This is one of the most fascinating and compelling off seasons for any team in a long time. It's so rare that a 60-win team has so many free agents... and even when they do, they're often able to keep the best of their free agents with max offers, whereas the Bucks don't have anyone clearly worth a max contract.

 

It's also rare that a young team can be at risk of breaking up so soon after their first year as anything more than a first-round upset hopeful. That's the downside of building a contender with just one perennial all-star and a whole bunch of good-but-not-great players - mostly veterans - supporting him.

 

Here's the guaranteed money, assuming they keep Brown and Pat C, with some rounding (a few 100k doesn't make much difference in the grand scheme of things):

 

Giannis - 25.8m

Bledsoe - 15.6m

Snell - 11.4m

Ersan - 7m

Wilson - 3m

DDV - 2.9m

Pat C - 1.7m

Brown - 1.6m

Hill - 1m (if waived; 18m if they pick up his option)

Spencer Hawes - 2m (dead cap)

Larry Sanders - 1.9m (dead brain cells)

cap holds on vacant roster spots - 1.8m each (times 4, since the above only fills 8 roster spots)

cap hold on pick #30 - 1.6m (I assume this reduces the number of cap holds on vacant roster spots to 3)

 

Since Brown, Pat C, and pick #30 are actually cheaper than a cap hold on a vacant roster spot, I'm including them in the 2019-2020 salary. If having as much cap space as possible is your goal, it makes sense to have a few spots filled by guys making less than the 1.8m cap hold on a vacant roster spot. However, you could free up about 2m more by replacing Pat C, Brown, and pick #30 with rookie free agents on minimum contracts, who only make about 900k... but that would be a terrible decision consider how inconsequential the savings are.

 

So the total guaranteed salary is just under $81m, leaving $28m in cap space. But that's without cap holds on Brogdon, Khris, or Mirotic, and without a cap hold on the exception money that many believe is needed to keep Lopez.

 

So basically, there's probably not enough cap space to justify renouncing all your free agents to pursue an outside free agent. And even if you do unload Snell, which I think will be difficult, you still probably want to keep low cap holds on Brogdon and Lopez, just in case.

 

I will break down each individual's situation, particularly with regard to the ridiculously complicated CBA, in a series of posts over the next few days.

 

Salary cap: 109m

Luxury tax: 132m

MLE: 9.25m

taxpayer MLE: 5.7m

"room MLE" for teams using cap room first: 4.75m

Luxury tax apron (hitting this affects flexibility in playing the cap): 138.3m

[coolhandluke121]

Malcolm Brogdon

------------

Restricted free agent (RFA) - Bucks have 48 hours to match any contract offer he signs.

Low $3m cap hold before he signs an offer sheet, which the Bucks can use to their advantage with Brogdon's cooperation.

Any offer sheet he signs will immediately replace his cap hold, which is just a placeholder estimate of his 2019-20 salary.

Can sign an offer sheet during the moratorium period, before other free agent deals can be made official.

Will surely get more than a 20% raise, meaning the old CBA would call him a "base-year compensation" player and make sign-and-trades much harder because his outgoing salary would differ substantially from the amount of matching salary the Bucks can absorb in a trade.

 

That offer sheet during the moratorium scenario is crucial. I don't remember that being the case in the old CBA, but they needed to make the new CBA more fair for RFA's and this new rule helps. If an RFA signs an offer sheet during the moratorium, the 48 hour deadline doesn't start until the moratorium ends, but his new 2019-20 salary does count unless you renounce the right to match. In other words, don't count on being able to use his low cap hold for wriggle room. RFA's have to get the best offers they can and strike quickly, or they risk a stalemate where nobody will make them an offer because they assume the current team will match. There's no reason to assume Brogdon will cooperate, though he might. He runs too great of a risk of missing out on a good payday as teams spend their cap space elsewhere.

 

Bottom line: There's a good chance Brogdon will eat up a lot of cap space very early. The only obvious way the Bucks can be in control of his cap hold is to preemptively offer him a generous deal so he doesn't go out looking for an offer sheet, but don't make the deal official until they've achieved whatever other free agency objectives they have.

[LouisEly]

The good thing is that with such a good record this past year, better players will be willing to play for the MLE to have a shot at a title.

 

Brook Lopez has already made $117M in his career; he might be willing to come back for the $5.7M MLE.

 

If I'm prioritizing, it's Middleton, Brogdon, Hill, Lopez. I just hope that Middleton doesn't pull a Dallas Keuchel and think he's worth a max contract when he isn't.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

He's worth it if he gets one and stupid if he doesn't take it.

 

I don't hate Middleton by any stretch but if we're prioritizing for me it's Brogdon, Lopez, Hill, Middleton. I'd like them all to come back but that's really how I see it.

[coolhandluke121]

The problem with this off season is that all it takes is one team to really want a guy and overpay him. And if that happens to 3 or 4 different players, the Bucks are in a tough spot. That's why it's such an unusual situation.

 

The talk of needing two true superstars and the right role players has always been an overblown cliche on the court IMO, but your payroll structure is where it really matters. It's so much easier to give, say, Bosh, Wade, and Lebron max deals and fill out the roster with serviceable, experienced vets than it is to figure out how much you can pay all these good players in their primes.

 

ETA: Prime example, if you have to pay Khris Middleton almost as much as OKC had to pay Paul George, that goes to show the real value of guys like George. It's possible to be just as good as the super teams with more 2nd-tier stars like the Bucks had this year, but it's harder to retain so many good players.

[patrickgpe]

 

If I'm prioritizing, it's Middleton, Brogdon, Hill, Lopez. I just hope that Middleton doesn't pull a Dallas Keuchel and think he's worth a max contract when he isn't.

 

I have Brogdon, Middleton, Lopez and Hill. I didn't realize Middleton was only 27. Lopez really fills a need on this team and is only 31. Hill is 33 and while was clutch in the playoffs and down the stretch, the bucks really need Brodgon and Bledsoe to step up into that role.

 

I see a huge payday for Lopez. He is a big guy who can shoot 3's and isn't a pushover inside. There is a value in that. Someone will give him a big deal so the MLE is not really in play IMO.

[GAME05]

Lopez will get good offers, but I could also see it that he recognizes he's getting a little older, he's probably having a ton of fun on the Bucks being able to shoot as much as he does, and he may not get a coach like Budenholzer who sees him go 0-12 from 3 one night and tells him to shoot just as much the next. I wonder if it'll come down to More Money vs. Most Fun for him.

 

I still have a hard time seeing Middleton come back whether Milwaukee is able to find the cash for him or not. He sometimes slipped to the #3 option depending on how Bledsoe was doing, and a new team is also probably going to want him to shoot more than he does here. Plus I think he'll get stupidly paid since there's a lot of Max slots available this offseason without so many Max-deserving players.

[coolhandluke121]

Brook Lopez

---------

Was signed with the bi-annual exemption (BAE)

Cap hold is $4.1m, representing a 20% raise on his current salary - this is the most they can pay him without using cap space or the MLE

Bucks do not have Bird Rights

Bucks have to stay under the tax apron to offer the full MLE (probably not a realistic possibility if they keep everyone else)

Could accept the tax MLE, which would make things a lot easier but is probably a lot less than he can get from several other teams

Could also get the "cap room MLE" if the Bucks renounce their Bird Rights to their other free agents, but the Bucks would lose a lot more talent than they gain by going the cap space route

 

Bottom line: accepting the taxpayer MLE or, better yet, the $4.1m that the Bucks are allowed to offer as an extension of his current deal, would be a godsend for the Bucks. However, that seems like a lot to ask considering the year he's had, so he has to really want to stay. I think he will get full MLE offers from several teams, including some other contenders, and some bigger offers from mediocre teams with more cap space. The Bucks would have to waive Hill or renounce their Bird Rights to Khris or Mirotic to stay under the tax apron and have the full MLE available for Lopez. Even then, as of now they would have to sign him before Brogdon signs an offer sheet (a risky thing to rely on) and/or before they go over the tax apron for some other reason (to re-sign someone else, for example).

 

I think they should just keep Hill and resign themselves to losing Lopez if he won't accept the tax MLE. It would be incredibly dumb to waive Hill only to find that you can't keep Lopez anyway, either because he commands more than the MLE on the open market or because Brogdon signs an offer sheet during the moratorium, putting them over the tax apron. Lopez probably has the most complicated situation, and losing him might be the best way to minimize your losses. There's a pretty decent chance you could make sure he's the only rotation player you lose, simply because you have everyone else's Bird Rights. I think giving up someone's Bird Rights would be a mistake, because they give you more control. Bird Rights in the hand are worth two in the bush, or something.

 

Also, letting Lopez go does save at least the tax MLE for someone to replace him. Don't forget they got Lopez for a lot less than that in the first place, and the system helped him.

[homer]

I think a lot depends on what the Bucks think of guys like DDV, Brown, and Wilson.

[coolhandluke121]

I think a lot depends on what the Bucks think of guys like DDV, Brown, and Wilson.

 

I like them all to varying degrees and I hope they keep them. I think they can all be rotation players next year, and they need rotation players on rookie contracts. I sure hope they don't give any of them away just to save a few million. Having played with the team and coaching staff for a year makes them valuable.

 

I wouldn't complain if they give up Brown or Pat C with pick #30 to get rid of Snell though. That would probably free up enough breathing room to justify the loss.

 

ETA: You may have meant it more as who they can replace with one of those guys, which is crucial. I could see them giving Wilson a chance to replace Mirotic, for example. But even then, I think they should try to retain as many guys as possible, even if it's just to jump at the chance to work with a bigger payroll and have more trade chips.

[homer]

It's a tough spot. First few days of free agency will tell a lot. If Dallas comes in and offers Middleton a max contract what do you do? A lot of moving parts and ripple effects. Owners should wait and see what Horst does this offseason before giving him a big contract extension.

[coolhandluke121]

It's a tough spot. First few days of free agency will tell a lot. If Dallas comes in and offers Middleton a max contract what do you do? A lot of moving parts and ripple effects. Owners should wait and see what Horst does this offseason before giving him a big contract extension.

 

Big catch-22 there. How can you let him make such critical long-term decisions without reassuring him that he's in the team's long-term plans? You don't want someone making those decisions if he isn't necessarily going to be with the team to sink or swim on those decisions. Without a new contract, he has incentive to make more short-sighted decisions that might look good if he goes searching for a new job next summer, but might not look as good in the long run. I don't want that.

[homer]

It's a tough spot. First few days of free agency will tell a lot. If Dallas comes in and offers Middleton a max contract what do you do? A lot of moving parts and ripple effects. Owners should wait and see what Horst does this offseason before giving him a big contract extension.

 

Big catch-22 there. How can you let him make such critical long-term decisions without reassuring him that he's in the team's long-term plans? You don't want someone making those decisions if he isn't necessarily going to be with the team to sink or swim on those decisions. Without a new contract, he has incentive to make more short-sighted decisions that might look good if he goes searching for a new job next summer, but might not look as good in the long run. I don't want that.

 

With Giannis up for free agency soon I don't think he can do anything except short term decisions.

[coolhandluke121]

 

With Giannis up for free agency soon I don't think he can do anything except short term decisions.

 

I have some concerns about that and about Horst's lame duck status. I think a bigger concern is that Marc Lasry is now in charge of the board of governors again, as they take turns in that role. He's the guy who brought us Jason Kidd and all of Kidd's disastrous personnel decisions that he influenced, including some involving his old buddies and players who had the same agent as Kidd (Greivis Vazquez, Mirza Teletovic, Matthew Dellavedova, Rashad Vaughn, MCW).

 

I'll try to do a post on Khris's situation next.

[homer]

Re: Lasry

 

He wanted Messina as coach instead of Bud. He admitted he was wrong and Edens was right so maybe he's changing his tune a bit.

[HiAndTight]

Re: Lasry

 

He wanted Messina as coach instead of Bud. He admitted he was wrong and Edens was right so maybe he's changing his tune a bit.

 

 

Wasn't he also against the hiring of Horst? I thought there was some type of consensus among the owners and then Edens, having control at the time decided to hire Horst to the ire of Edens.

[tmwiese55]

Lasry wanted to stick to the plan which was promoting Zanick to GM. They hired him from Utah to take over for Hammond. Hammond left and he just wanted to stick to the plan. The other guys put up a stink about and they couldn't agree, thus Horst. My recollection of the situation was that Edens was the one making a fight. In hindsight it seems like a good call as Horst has done well, but note Zanick is now GM in Utah so he's probably good too. But really I don't think it's on Lasry for having the opinion of "guys we had a plan a year ago, why are we not sticking to the plan". Plus it's basically stabbing Zanick in the back after you lied to him. Long story short, it seems Edens has been the more disruptive owner thus far, plus he's had some personal life issues publicly as well.

[monkeyman343434]

Not sure how this plays into things, if at all, but Lasry's son is the one who is a VP in the organization as well, correct?

[HiAndTight]

The good thing is that with such a good record this past year, better players will be willing to play for the MLE to have a shot at a title.

 

Brook Lopez has already made $117M in his career; he might be willing to come back for the $5.7M MLE.

 

If I'm prioritizing, it's Middleton, Brogdon, Hill, Lopez. I just hope that Middleton doesn't pull a Dallas Keuchel and think he's worth a max contract when he isn't.

 

 

I think if this team didn't have a superstar the caliber of Giannis, I would agree with you much more that Middleton isn't worth a max deal. However, our decisions this offseason are going to play a huge role in Giannis' decision to sign or to leave. If you take away the only other all-star on this roster, that's certainly not going to help.

 

So I think Middleton's worth the Max. The only upside is there are obviously better players out there, so the teams rumored to be interested in Middleton, Brooklyn, LAL and Indy will probably wait and see what happens with them. The exception being the Pacers who may be resigned to the fact that they're not getting a true superstar and Middleton may be their best option.

 

I do think there is probably about a 75 pct chance Middleton gets offered a Max deal.

 

 

One guy who's getting overlooked is Mirotic. Sure, he was bad in the playoffs, but lets not recency bias impact this too much. Go back a year and he was outstanding in the post-season.

 

Mirotic is 28 years old, he's not quite Lopez in terms of being a rim protector, but he's a good rebounder and a very good shooter. I'd like to see him back, particularly if we aren't able to retain Lopez. No clue what the number is. 13/14 was being thrown out by some writers toward the end of the regular season. I'd imagine he cost himself quite a bit when he was injured down the stretch and then performed poorly in the playoffs.

 

 

This would be a very obvious example of what Homer was talking about. How confident are the Bucks that Wilson can take another step, improve his 3 point shooting as well as be that glue type player that he looked like he could be at times this year? I like Wilson....his shot isn't the prettiest, but if they are high on him, that could make it an easier decision.

 

 

As for my ranking, I'm just going with Middleton/Brogdon 1 and 1A right now. The others could be replaced on an individual basis, but we can't replace them all with just one pick and the depth we have. I don't think the two I named could be adequately replaced.

[coolhandluke121]

Khris Middleton

-------------

Cap hold of $19.5

Bucks have Bird Rights to go over the cap and re-sign him

Is eligible for 30% of the salary cap as starting salary ($32.7m)

Bucks can offer 5 years with 8% raises (5/$190m total)

Other teams can offer 4 years with 5% raises (4/$140m total)

Will almost surely be what used to be called a "base-year compensation" (BYC) player

BYC rules made it harder to abuse Bird Rights just to do sign-and-trades (Bird Rights are meant for keeping teams together)

Bucks can only take back the greater of his current salary or half his new salary in a sign-and-trade (give or take 25%) unless they are far enough under the cap to make up the difference

 

There has been a b.s. rumor all over the internet that you can't combine players in a sign-and-trade. Some second-rate basketball hype site started the rumor. The CBA continues to make sign-and-trades harder every time they update it, but I can't find anything anywhere that prohibits combining players in a sign-and-trade package, and arguably the best online resource for explaining the CBA even goes so far as to explain how combining players can help get around "BYC" restrictions on sign-and-trades.

 

http://www.cbafaq.com/salarycap.htm

 

Anyway, I think a sign-and-trade would be a cool option, but I'm not sure Khris is going to accept it. I think his last interview where he emphasized that family is the most important factor is usually code for trying to maximize earnings, which is fine. And I think some young team like Brooklyn, Dallas, or Orlando wants to take advantage of their cap space while they can, before extensions for some of their young players eats up their cap space. Those teams aren't getting Kawhi, Klay, or KD. They probably couldn't even get Kemba, though Brooklyn has a chance at Kyrie. But Khris is the most realistic target for teams looking to poach an "all-star". (What's with all the K's in free agency? Is this a Travis Shaw highlight reel??)

 

I think the bottom line is that you have to take advantage of the opportunity to go way over the cap and retain as much talent as possible. Under no circumstances do I offer more than 4/$140m (if he wants to leave for the same money, let him), and I would be very reluctant to offer that. I suppose one can hope that Brooklyn, Dallas, and Orlando target other players, making ~4/$110m a viable offer. I think that salary is appropriate for Khris, and depending on the return, they would get some talent back while still taking advantage of the opportunity to play over the cap. I guess I kind of hope that's possible, though it's exceedingly complicated with his BYC status, even if you are getting cooperation from him and his new team.

 

I think I'm pretty even-handed about Khris's impact. I don't get too down on him when he's slumping and I don't hype him excessively when he's hot. He's a pretty good player. However, I think I'd rather lose him than lose any 2 of Hill, Brogdon, Mirotic, and Lopez. And losing him would give you a better chance of getting back under the tax threshold in 2020-21, which is important for keeping the full MLE and the bi-annual exemption.

 

*Edited to delete an incorrect interpretation of sign-and-trade rules - only "Rose Rule" guys are restricted to reduced max salaries in sign-and-trade deals.

[coolhandluke121]

Nikola Mirotic

-----------

Unrestricted free agent with full Bird Rights

Cap hold of $18.75m unless the Bucks renounce his rights (150% of this year's $12.5m salary)

A starting salary of over $15m would make him a "BYC" player, but he would be much easier to sign-and-trade than Brogdon or Middleton, whose salaries will more than double

 

Really tough to judge this on. I think you have to look at his whole body of work and not focus too much on these playoffs. Look at how much better New Orleans got when Cousins tore his Achilles and Mirotic replaced him in the starting lineup. He was a great fit next to Anthony Davis and would theoretically be a great fit with Giannis. He only played 14 regular season games for the Bucks. He was bad in the playoffs, but he played way too many games out of position at SF for some dumb reason. Toronto was a terrible match-up for him because their small-ball lineups were murder on Milwaukee's slow big men, even when they weren't playing out of position, let alone when they were.

 

Unless the price tag is unreasonable, I think this is another case of just retaining as much talent as humanly possible while you have the chance. It will be a long time before the Bucks have another opportunity to retain a bunch of free agents with Bird Rights and push the payroll way over the cap. When you're a contender, you have to jump at the chance. Revenue sharing is adequate in the NBA, and building your brand pays lasting dividends. They got a ridiculous amount of money from the state for building the new arena, and they owe it to the fans. Look at how GSW's ownership is building their arena entirely out of their own money. I respect that, and they're still making a killing on their investment. The Bucks' owners are doing the same, so don't listen to any bullcrap whining about the luxury tax bill. I would give him a small raise on his current deal and worry about fit and playing time later.

 

That said, a sign-and-trade could be an option if you think Wilson is ready for more minutes and you manage to keep Lopez. I'm not even going to suggest any trades because there's too many moving parts this time of year and I'm not privy to any of the conversations teams are having about player movement.

[OnTheBlack]

Nikola Mirotic

-----------

Unrestricted free agent with full Bird Rights

Cap hold of $18.75m unless the Bucks renounce his rights (150% of this year's $12.5m salary)

A starting salary of over $15m would make him a "BYC" player, but he would be much easier to sign-and-trade than Brogdon or Middleton, whose salaries will more than double

 

Really tough to judge this on. I think you have to look at his whole body of work and not focus too much on these playoffs. Look at how much better New Orleans got when Cousins tore his Achilles and Mirotic replaced him in the starting lineup. He was a great fit next to Anthony Davis and would theoretically be a great fit with Giannis. He only played 14 regular season games for the Bucks. He was bad in the playoffs, but he played way too many games out of position at SF for some dumb reason. Toronto was a terrible match-up for him because their small-ball lineups were murder on Milwaukee's slow big men, even when they weren't playing out of position, let alone when they were.

 

Unless the price tag is unreasonable, I think this is another case of just retaining as much talent as humanly possible while you have the chance. It will be a long time before the Bucks have another opportunity to retain a bunch of free agents with Bird Rights and push the payroll way over the cap. When you're a contender, you have to jump at the chance. Revenue sharing is adequate in the NBA, and building your brand pays lasting dividends. They got a ridiculous amount of money from the state for building the new arena, and they owe it to the fans. Look at how GSW's ownership is building their arena entirely out of their own money. I respect that, and they're still making a killing on their investment. The Bucks' owners are doing the same, so don't listen to any bullcrap whining about the luxury tax bill. I would give him a small raise on his current deal and worry about fit and playing time later.

 

That said, a sign-and-trade could be an option if you think Wilson is ready for more minutes and you manage to keep Lopez. I'm not even going to suggest any trades because there's too many moving parts this time of year and I'm not privy to any of the conversations teams are having about player movement.

 

 

 

If Mirotic would have duplicated his success from the post-season last year, the Bucks would be in the finals, and he'd have likely priced himself out of Milwaukee. He went from a guy everyone was talking about how much it'd take to a guy people are kinda writing off. I'm kinda torn on this one. DJ Wilson has hit 3's roughly as well as Mirotic has, though obviously at a significantly lower volume, he's younger and I think will be a better defender and is a bit more athletic.

 

I be in favor of bring Mirotic back at ~9-10 a year. Retaining Lopez or even using a draft pick on a big body who's a bit more athletic and capable of defending other bigs, both near the basket and a guy like Gasol/Ibaka in space a bit more could have an impact on this decision.

 

With Houston looking to re-tool(foolishly IMO) and reportedly shopping Capella, I wonder what they'd be looking for in return. My guess is far more than we have that would interest him, but he is the type of guy you could see them possibly being interested in. I just can't see any package going back that would be worth it for us without a Brogdon type going back. And I don't see the point to that.

[FVBrewerFan]

All of this is a painful reminder how this season very well could have been a one year window. Every day I hear from family, friends, random people about how this was just the first step. Bring everyone back and take the next step.

 

I don't even have the heart anymore to correct them. First, it will near impossible to bring everyone back. Then, even if they could, is that even good enough when it wasn't this year? With no real way to improve the roster. No cap space, no tradeable players to bring back a difference maker.

 

As you can see, I will be pleasantly surprised if they're able to pull off a miracle off-season.

[HiAndTight]

All of this is a painful reminder how this season very well could have been a one year window. Every day I hear from family, friends, random people about how this was just the first step. Bring everyone back and take the next step.

 

I don't even have the heart anymore to correct them. First, it will near impossible to bring everyone back. Then, even if they could, is that even good enough when it wasn't this year? With no real way to improve the roster. No cap space, no tradeable players to bring back a difference maker.

 

As you can see, I will be pleasantly surprised if they're able to pull off a miracle off-season.

 

 

How would you correct people who believe that this was the Bucks first step and they'll be back?

 

I'm not sure why this is so far fetched. Again, every great player has to overcome something. Giannis wasn't able to this year at 24, so that means it was a one year window?

 

And growth from a team can come from it's younger players getting better among other things. DJ Wilson is a 6'10, athletic and active big man who shots about 36 pct from 3. Not sure he's hit his ceiling. I know Giannis hasn't because as great as he is, he struggled in his first time in a big spot in the playoffs. Bringing back Mirotic would almost certainly be growth right there as he played very few games for the Bucks this year and given his track record, would almost certainly be significantly better next season.

 

There will be turnover. As long as we bring back Middleton, Brogdon and can find a competent, veteran PG, I don't see any reason why we won't be back and competitive.

 

I just don't understand the defeatist attitude when we've got a 24-year-old who will most likely be MVP this year and still has a lot of room for growth in his game and we were up 2-0 in the ECF's.

 

I'll start getting upset if Giannis leaves. Past that, I'm pretty confident if he sticks around here, the Bucks are going to be a contender every year he's healthy. I don't know what more you can ask for.

[tmwiese55]

Especially when the other two best teams in Tor/GSW are likely losing their best players.

 

ETA: Odds online currently have the Bucks as the #2 favorite to win the title next year after GSW. Tor is the 2nd East team and they're almost 3x higher payout.