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This year's deadline


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I'm guessing we end up with an innings eater pitcher like Mike Leake (maybe not specifically Leake, but someone like him) who won't cost much. Plus a decent reliever for a reasonable price - like we got Swarzak a couple of years ago.

 

The reason is that this team needs more than just a player or two. They need some of their underperforming guys to step up - like last September when Arcia and Woodruff and Burnes and Gio and others really helped the team. So many guys have struggled of late - and we need that to turn it around. Whether that can happen is a big question, but I'm betting that Stearns fortifies the staff a bit with some modest additions, and gambles his guys get their act together for the final 1/3 of the season.

 

All just a guess. But by doing so you don't surrender any of our best young players, such as Turang and Grisham.

 

I should note that whenever I say stuff like this, Stearns usually turns around and does the opposite. So be prepared for a blockbuster!

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Just that Bauer is now into the NL Central and Trammell is out of the division..

This makes it each of the past three deadlines that a different NL Central team has traded away some of their top young players for a good starting pitcher:

 

July 2017 - Cubs trade prospects Dylan Cease and Eloy Jimenez for Jose Quintana

 

July 2018 - Pirates trade Tyler Glasnow, Austin Meadows, and prospect Shane Baz for Chris Archer

 

July 2019 - Reds trade prospects Taylor Trammel and Scott Moss (along with Yasiel Puig) for Trevor Bauer

Not just “at Night” anymore.
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I'm waiting for the other shoe to drop in Cincinnati. They now have: Castillo, Gray, Bauer, DeScalfani, Mahle, Roark and just activated Alex Wood. I'm assuming they'll ship out Roark and Wood before the deadline. Both could help the Brewers down the stretch.
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Where’s the over pay here?

 

I'll let other, smarter people do the talking:

 

The values from tonight's blockbuster:

 

#Indians get: Franmil Reyes ($32.4M), Logan Allen ($14.7M), Yasiel Puig ($6.5m), Scott Moss ($0.4M), Victor Nova (NR) TOTAL - $54.0M

 

#Padres get: Taylor Trammell ($50.2M)

 

#Reds get: Trevor Bauer ($34.4M)

 

The #Padres values are balanced. This means that we're either severely undervaluing Trevor Bauer, or the #Reds overpaid.

 

We believe it's the latter. Over the past year, we've seen only one overpay in a trade for a starting pitcher - Cincinnati's offseason trade for Sonny Gray.

 

The #Reds have mentioned the difficulties of luring free agent pitchers to Cincinnati, and their willingness to overpay in a trade as a result.

 

This is a higher-variance trade than we're used to seeing, but we've seen other high-variance trades from the Reds in the past.

 

And from our resident 'surplus value' expert, Joseph C:

 

Reds = -42.4 million in surplus value

Added - Bauer (+28.2)

Subtracted - Puig (+3.1), Moss (+5.5), Trammell (+62.0)

 

Indians = +25.4 million in surplus value

Added - Puig (+3.1), Moss (+5.5), Reyes (+27.0), Allen (+15.8), Nova (+2.2)

Subtracted - Bauer (+28.2)

 

Padres = +17 million in surplus value

Added - Trammell (+62.0)

Subtracted - Reyes (+27.0), Allen (+15.8), Nova (+2.2)

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Well there's your deadline. Underwhelming throughout the whole league.

 

Reds make the biggest splash in the Central while Cubs, Cardinals and Brewers pretty much stand pat.

 

Aguilar move is fine getting back a controllable arm. SF move underwhelming and does not put the Brewers over the top on paper for even the 2nd wild card. Wish they would've sold or not made the Dubon move and stand pat.

 

 

EDIT: Final moves being announced. Cubs get Castellanos

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Across MLB this was the lamest trade deadline I can remember. Aside from some teams presumably out of the playoff hunt adding impact pitchers, everyone else mostly just made small moves around the margins. I completely get that teams are making decisions that they think are in their long-term best interests, but it doesn't do much for the entertainment value associated with seeing teams really embrace the concept of an ebb and flow through competitive cycles. The idea of lines of distinction between "buyers" and "sellers" appear to be blurry at best.

 

Edit: Wrote this before the Greinke deal. That one is fun.

Not just “at Night” anymore.
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Across MLB this was the lamest trade deadline I can remember. Aside from some teams presumably out of the playoff hunt adding impact pitchers, everyone else mostly just made small moves around the margins. I completely get that teams are making decisions that they think are in their long-term best interests, but it doesn't do much for the entertainment value associated with seeing teams really embrace the concept of an ebb and flow through competitive cycles. The idea of lines of distinction between "buyers" and "sellers" appear to be blurry at best.

 

Last minute trades making it a little better.

 

Gennett to Giants, Greinke to Houston, Castellanos to Cubs

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So this deadline:

 

Not that WAR is the end all, but the combined WAR of all players we acquired is -0.4.

 

We did not upgrade at SS or find depth there, in fact we lost depth there. We acquired a couple non needle moving starters that hardly qualify as AAA depth. There's some upside, but literally every player we acquired you could debate as to whether they are even worth a 25 man roster spot.

 

The only one I'm even remotely excited about is Faria. I'm not sure Lyles will even be better than Supak/Wilkerson would have been. Black is a 30 year old project. Pomeranz is useless. We lost a good prospect, got stuck with Arcia now for the foreseeable future, and somehow didn't even really improve our MLB team.

 

I guess the best thing about this deadline is that Grisham is still here.

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So this deadline:

 

Not that WAR is the end all, but the combined WAR of all players we acquired is -0.4.

 

We did not upgrade at SS or find depth there, in fact we lost depth there. We acquired a couple non needle moving starters that hardly qualify as AAA depth. There's some upside, but literally every player we acquired you could debate as to whether they are even worth a 25 man roster spot.

 

The only one I'm even remotely excited about is Faria. I'm not sure Lyles will even be better than Supak/Wilkerson would have been. Black is a 30 year old project. Pomeranz is useless. We lost a good prospect, got stuck with Arcia now for the foreseeable future, and somehow didn't even really improve our MLB team.

 

I guess the best thing about this deadline is that Grisham is still here.

 

While I'm not anywhere close to your "glass is half empty" take here, I was underwhelmed by what they managed to do. I am intrigued by the upside of Faria and Black. I think Pomeranz, if deployed as a mid-inning reliever, can have value. We'll see what Lyles can do.

 

The pen, which was this team's major downfall, stands the chance of being better. Can they survive with basically 2 healthy starters and Houser until Gio is fully back? Maybe.

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My take is a bunch of smallish moves that hopefully will work out without mortgaging our future too badly. It's going to be a crapshoot in the NL so makes sense not too "waste" too many prospects on a losing endeavor. Time will tell if the stars align and make it to the playoffs
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While I'm just as upset as anyone we didn't get a big named pitcher, the prices were just to high so we got what we could. It's not like any of these guys have not had success or have potential to have success. Pomeranz has been good out of the bullpen, faria had a good rookie year and won the minor league pitcher of the year award I'm pretty sure, ray throws 100....you can't find those arms often and lyles had in era under 2 in 9 starts. AGuilar didn't really fit this team and who knows whatd dubon would do. Frankly, if those guys mentioned and the guys that aernt having as great of years (cain, shaw, chacine) and play like they can, we make the playoffs, but if they don't, a ace starting 1 good starting pitcher or a relief pitcher still wont get us to the playoffs if guys continue to underperform imo. Non of these guys have played for us yet, I can't be to upset until after the year. Lets see what they can do.
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Given that Dubon is gone, Thames will be seeing a lot more L/L matchups with Aguilar gone, and Pomeranz has miserable numbers in a pitcher friendly park this year and Ray Black was deemed not good enough to make the 25 man roster over the recently DFAed Jay Jackson, I think one could make a pretty reasonable argument that Stearns managed to make both the MLB team and farm system worse on deadline day, not an easy task to pull off.
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And now we get to see which Danny appears on the mound on 8/1/19: The good Danny (Salazar) or the bad Danny (Salad Bar)..

 

Well on the 3rd pitch in, George Springer goes yard. Then a bloop hit. Then a loud out...

I get the sense this is Salad Bar on the mound for the Tribe tonight...

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Apparently there was not much interest in Freddy Galvis. He would have been an upgrade at utility IF, if not starting SSand surely wouldn’t have been a high cost considering the Jays want to play their prospects
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