This year's deadline

[Warning Track Power]

Dubon and Burnes will be traded this deadline. This is your HighHeat news.

I would only deal Burnes if it is for a controllable young-ish starter. The only one who fits the bill for me that is known to be available is Syndergaard and I am even having a hard time with that one.

 

Just for clarification, youre having a hard time seeing the value in trading corbin burnes for Thor? or youre having a hard time seeing anyone in their right mind thinking that is a remotely possible scenario?

I’m having a hard time trading 5+ seasons of Burnes for 2+ years of Syndergaard. I love Thor but it wouldn’t just be Burnes. It would be additional significant pieces.

[RollieTime]

What about a guy like Brad Keller from Kansas City? I believe they would have him for 4.5 years. Keeps the ball in the ballpark and just turned 24 years old. He walks quite a few guys, but has a lot of room to grow and mature still. He’s an interesting option that I haven’t seen anybody mention yet. Would be nice to have a guy like him to pair with Woodruff in the rotation for a few years.

 

Why would a team like KC trade a 24 year old?

 

If the Royals were going to be in a rebuild for a number of years still, it would make a lot of sense to sell high on a pitcher. If they aren’t truly competing for 3 years or so, is it worth keeping him through the tough years and now needing to pay him large arby raises and/or him walking away for nothing right when they start competing again? Or they could add a few guys in A or AA, have them make the MLB in 2021 or 2022 and have 6+ years of control of promising young players right when the big club is starting to be competitive.

 

Prospects are only prospects, but it’s something they could consider. If the Brewers were entering a full tear down, I would hope guys like Hader and Davies would be moved. Keeping Hader through a multi year rebuild and paying him $15-$18 million his final year of arbitration right when we are trying to compete again instead of cashing in early and getting a haul would really disappoint me (obviously just an example).

 

I personally don’t see the Royals being much of a playoff threat for a number of years. I just think it’s wise to cash in and get 6+ years of a couple promising prospects than to carry a guy through a rebuild when he has a ton of value and then needing to pay him pretty extensively coming out of a rebuild where he only has 1 or 2 years left of control.

[wntrtxn21]

What about a guy like Brad Keller from Kansas City? I believe they would have him for 4.5 years. Keeps the ball in the ballpark and just turned 24 years old. He walks quite a few guys, but has a lot of room to grow and mature still. He’s an interesting option that I haven’t seen anybody mention yet. Would be nice to have a guy like him to pair with Woodruff in the rotation for a few years.

 

Why would a team like KC trade a 24 year old?

 

If the Royals were going to be in a rebuild for a number of years still, it would make a lot of sense to sell high on a pitcher. If they aren’t truly competing for 3 years or so, is it worth keeping him through the tough years and now needing to pay him large arby raises and/or him walking away for nothing right when they start competing again? Or they could add a few guys in A or AA, have them make the MLB in 2021 or 2022 and have 6+ years of control of promising young players right when the big club is starting to be competitive.

 

Prospects are only prospects, but it’s something they could consider. If the Brewers were entering a full tear down, I would hope guys like Hader and Davies would be moved. Keeping Hader through a multi year rebuild and paying him $15-$18 million his final year of arbitration right when we are trying to compete again instead of cashing in early and getting a haul would really disappoint me (obviously just an example).

 

I personally don’t see the Royals being much of a playoff threat for a number of years. I just think it’s wise to cash in and get 6+ years of a couple promising prospects than to carry a guy through a rebuild when he has a ton of value and then needing to pay him pretty extensively coming out of a rebuild where he only has 1 or 2 years left of control.

 

Keller is a very run-of-the-mill pitcher. 4.31 FIP - 1.36 WHIP - 4 BBs/9. Not a strikeout pitcher. Right now Keller is worth more to the Royals than any of the lower level prospects he would bring unless someone wanted to overpay for a very mediocre pitcher.

[wntrtxn21]

Jon Heyman

@JonHeyman

·

3m

D-Backs, who just fell below .500, could have great sale. Ray, Dyson, Ahmed, Peralta, Chafin, Bradley, Jones are among candidates to go. Greinke’s drawn some interest, but with wisely selected 15-team no-trade list, it’s said to be up to him, “for the most part.”

 

Give me a package deal of Robby Ray and Nick Ahmed...can include Dubon or Arcia(in a package), gotta think that would work for the Dbacks. Would LOVE LOVE LOVE to get David Peralta too..at worst, he and Braun could platoon in left

 

The Brewers don't have the players the D'backs would want for Ray, much less Ray and Peralta/Ahmed.

[Brewcrewin07]

Jon Heyman

@JonHeyman

·

3m

D-Backs, who just fell below .500, could have great sale. Ray, Dyson, Ahmed, Peralta, Chafin, Bradley, Jones are among candidates to go. Greinke’s drawn some interest, but with wisely selected 15-team no-trade list, it’s said to be up to him, “for the most part.”

 

Give me a package deal of Robby Ray and Nick Ahmed...can include Dubon or Arcia(in a package), gotta think that would work for the Dbacks. Would LOVE LOVE LOVE to get David Peralta too..at worst, he and Braun could platoon in left

 

The Brewers don't have the players the D'backs would want for Ray, much less Ray and Peralta/Ahmed.

 

How do you know that?? As of yesterday the Brewers were still "engaged" on Ray.

 

Jon Heyman

@JonHeyman

·

15h

Brewers and Astros remain engaged on Robbie Ray. Yanks and others also interested.

[Eye Black]

The Brewers don't have the players the D'backs would want for Ray, much less Ray and Peralta/Ahmed.

Ray+ may be a stretch, but earlier reports indicated the Diamondbacks wanted something similar to what they got for Goldschmidt. I take that, at least in part, to mean they want young players either in MLB, or on the verge of being major league ready. If you combined one of the Brewers younger pitchers (i.e. Burnes or Peralta), with one of their top close to the majors position prospects (i.e. Dubon or Grisham) that likely gets you pretty close to a deal for 1.5 seasons of Robbie Ray. It actually is probably a bit of an overpay if you take into account that the Blue Jays just got a FV 45+ and FV 45 pitcher in return for Marcus Stroman under the same amount of control. Of those possible combinations, Burnes and Dubon would be my preference in exchange for Ray.

 

The one thing that would give me a slight bit of pause on Robbie Ray is the average velocity on his fastball has been in a pretty steady decline for the past two years (Link). Still, he has remained fairly consistent in terms of results over that span.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Jon Heyman

@JonHeyman

·

3m

D-Backs, who just fell below .500, could have great sale. Ray, Dyson, Ahmed, Peralta, Chafin, Bradley, Jones are among candidates to go. Greinke’s drawn some interest, but with wisely selected 15-team no-trade list, it’s said to be up to him, “for the most part.”

 

Give me a package deal of Robby Ray and Nick Ahmed...can include Dubon or Arcia(in a package), gotta think that would work for the Dbacks. Would LOVE LOVE LOVE to get David Peralta too..at worst, he and Braun could platoon in left

 

The Brewers don't have the players the D'backs would want for Ray, much less Ray and Peralta/Ahmed.

 

How do you know that?? As of yesterday the Brewers were still "engaged" on Ray.

 

Jon Heyman

@JonHeyman

·

15h

Brewers and Astros remain engaged on Robbie Ray. Yanks and others also interested.

 

Unless he works for the Diamondbacks' front office, he most assuredly DOES NOT know this, so you have a point there. In the end, it's a matter of what the Brewers' are willing to give up, and how highly the other team values those pieces. Anything more than that is simply hyperbole, which is exactly what this particular poster is engaging in in this case.

[Brewcrewin07]

To me, the market has been set for Robbie Ray...the Marcus Stroman deal. Same control. They didn't give up a top 100 prospect, so that's the price to me. Brewers can easily do that.

[Fear The Chorizo]

This year's deadline is weird...like really weird. I'm sure activity is going to pick up, but to this point the marquee player moved (Stroman) was dealt to a team that isn't considered a contender. Seems like there is plenty of smoke on some deals, but the glut of NL "contenders" is gumming things up and I'm pretty sure the obvious sellers are trying to hold out until the last minute to drive the pricetags up. That may wind up backfiring, as alot of these teams may just wind up sitting on their hands and grinding out the rest of the year. Particularly in the NL, it's the Dodgers and everyone else - even with picking up a few key pieces, every other NL team would be a huge series underdog against the Dodgers, so the calculus may be to largely stand pat and hope for a 83-win Cardinals-esque postseason run.

 

The AL is much different considering the there are fewer teams in wildcard contention and they have better overall records - they should be jumping at the chance to upgrade their rosters. But to this point that hasn't happened.

[SeaBass]

Yeah, I feel like there's a huge staring contest going on around the league. With the "new" trade deadline being the only trade deadline may have changed things up for the worse, at least in the feeling out stages since MLB hasn't had to deal with this scenario before. Certainly not what most expected, most of the reaction back when it was announced seemed to be along the lines of "the trade deadline is going to be more exciting!" and "teams are going to buy earlier than ever!" That hasn't really happened.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Yeah, I feel like there's a huge staring contest going on around the league. With the "new" trade deadline being the only trade deadline may have changed things up for the worse, at least in the feeling out stages since MLB hasn't had to deal with this scenario before. Certainly not what most expected, most of the reaction back when it was announced seemed to be along the lines of "the trade deadline is going to be more exciting!" and "teams are going to buy earlier than ever!" That hasn't really happened.

 

What's likely to happen is that we're going to likely see a few trades today, and craziness tomorrow.

[SeaBass]

Right, there are definitely going to be trades. I am a little surprised the Stroman deal is the only big trade so far. Next 31 hours should be interesting. I expect at least one big move goes down today.

[tmwiese55]

To me, the market has been set for Robbie Ray...the Marcus Stroman deal. Same control. They didn't give up a top 100 prospect, so that's the price to me. Brewers can easily do that.

 

thing is with how little the Mets gave up MKE should've just beat that deal.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

To me, the market has been set for Robbie Ray...the Marcus Stroman deal. Same control. They didn't give up a top 100 prospect, so that's the price to me. Brewers can easily do that.

 

thing is with how little the Mets gave up MKE should've just beat that deal.

 

How do we really know that the Mets gave up little, though? Both the pitchers they acquired are very highly thought of. Perhaps the Blue Jays had them ranked even higher? Every team is going to value prospects differently, and none of them are using MLB Pipeline's Top 100 or Organizational Top 30 lists, I'll guarantee you that.

[sveumrules]

Fan: we need a stud to anchor our rotation

 

Stearns: let’s get lyles! He’s been complete crap this year, last year and all year before but I see something in him!

 

I'm confused here. Are you actually insinuating that Stearns would run the team better if he made moves based on what the fans think? If so, what is your tolerance for 40 win seasons?

 

Trying to please someone who considers Ben Sheets & Rickie Weeks as All Time Franchise Busts is a fool's errand.

[LouisEly]

Yeah, I feel like there's a huge staring contest going on around the league. With the "new" trade deadline being the only trade deadline may have changed things up for the worse, at least in the feeling out stages since MLB hasn't had to deal with this scenario before. Certainly not what most expected, most of the reaction back when it was announced seemed to be along the lines of "the trade deadline is going to be more exciting!" and "teams are going to buy earlier than ever!" That hasn't really happened.

The "needle-movers" are pretty much all under control beyond this season, thus those teams don't have to trade them - if they can't get the right value at the deadline, they can wait until the off-season to trade them. There is a little bit of injury/performance risk, and less control means less value, but in the off-season more teams feel they can contend, there are more potential buyers, and a team in contention this year might not need that guy now because they have a guy who is an impending free agent but will need the guy next season. The trade deadline isn't the only time that players can be traded.

[tmwiese55]

To me, the market has been set for Robbie Ray...the Marcus Stroman deal. Same control. They didn't give up a top 100 prospect, so that's the price to me. Brewers can easily do that.

 

thing is with how little the Mets gave up MKE should've just beat that deal.

 

How do we really know that the Mets gave up little, though? Both the pitchers they acquired are very highly thought of. Perhaps the Blue Jays had them ranked even higher? Every team is going to value prospects differently, and none of them are using MLB Pipeline's Top 100 or Organizational Top 30 lists, I'll guarantee you that.

 

Well that goes without saying. I guess we should all preface every prospect discussion with that then or something like "based on our best guesses/estimates". Why even have a board to discuss such topics then if it's off limits since we don't know how they value players.

 

I mean, when you saw what they got were not like "really, that's it?" And then compare that to the packages being talked about for Ray, Syndegaard, etc or even Vasquez from Pit. IDK, seems to me Tor could've done better. But yes, I'm not them so I don't know their thoughts.

[pacopete4]

IDK, seems to me Tor could've done better. But yes, I'm not them so I don't know their thoughts.

 

This sounds like a much more reasonable response to the trade. Anyone getting upset that the Brewers don’t nab a guy always seems odd to me because there’s just so many factors involved that we don’t know about. It leads you to a dark place with your mindset of the job Stearns and Co. are doing when in reality they have no idea what it would’ve took from the Brewers to get it done.

[tmwiese55]

My phrase of 'with how little they got we should've just beat it' is not reasonable and is me being upset? While in a discussion using the value set by that trade in another trade for a very comparable player. When imo since Tor took less than they should Ray is gonna cost more than Stroman. Seems rather tepid compared to what goes on around here, haha. I don't see any feet stomping there, people are going more nuts over not keeping Jordan Lyles in the offseason than the one small sentence I said.

 

ETA: If anything the takes of "you don't know how they value guys so can't discuss" seems the more unreasonable one being that we are, you know, on a discussion board designed to do exactly that.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

IDK, seems to me Tor could've done better. But yes, I'm not them so I don't know their thoughts.

 

This sounds like a much more reasonable response to the trade. Getting upset that the Brewers don’t nab a guy always seems odd to me because there’s just so many factors involved that we don’t know about. It leads you to a dark place with your mindset of the job Stearns and Co. are doing when in reality you have no idea what it would’ve took from the Brewers to get it done.

 

Exactly ... thank you for more eloquently stating what I was attempting to convey. I totally get being disappointed that the team didn't acquire the player(s) we wanted them to, but there is always more to the story than what we see and what's reported on.

[pacopete4]

My phrase of 'with how little they got we should've just beat it' is not reasonable and is me being upset? While in a discussion using the value set by that trade in another trade for a very comparable player. When imo since Tor took less than they should Ray is gonna cost more than Stroman. Seems rather tepid compared to what goes on around here, haha. I don't see any feet stomping there, people are going more nuts over not keeping Jordan Lyles in the offseason than the one small sentence I said.

 

Sorry, should’ve phrased the last part of my sentences better as it was not solely directed at you. It was more of a generalization for everyone who tosses out two players the Brewers should’ve traded to get Stroman.

[homer]

Well, we've got roughly 28 hours until the deadline. I'm thinking things are going to get interesting starting late this afternoon.

[tmwiese55]

If Arizona opens up shop like it sounds like they will, they just demoted Holland after one bad game. then in his first game after being demoted he laid an egg. You can probably get him for next to nothing. I'm not saying he's gonna be our last year's Knebel. But in the position we're in where we don't really wanna spend a ton he seems like a competent pitcher you can get for nothing prospects.

[Brewcrewin07]

Well, we've got roughly 28 hours until the deadline. I'm thinking things are going to get interesting starting late this afternoon.

 

What's going to be just as interesting is to see who is in San Antonio's lineup tonight, or if anyone comes out early

[wntrtxn21]

If Arizona opens up shop like it sounds like they will, they just demoted Holland after one bad game. then in his first game after being demoted he laid an egg. You can probably get him for next to nothing. I'm not saying he's gonna be our last year's Knebel. But in the position we're in where we don't really wanna spend a ton he seems like a competent pitcher you can get for nothing prospects.

 

I think they removed Holland for his 5th blown save including his last two appearances. He's a FA at the end of the year so I think you're right. He wouldn't cost much in the way of prospects.