Nationals Assets

[ThisIsMyCrew]

Nationals continue to struggle. Despite there high payroll they are 9 games below .500 and how some very expensive assets.

 

I’m going to assume the Brewers will be out on Scherzer/Strasburg based on the obscene numbers they are still owed. And filtering the needs of the team. Two names pop up as reasonable options that probably won’t come cheap.

 

Anthony Rendon:

Thought here is you get an all star level player for half a year. He’s owed $19 mil in his walk year, which obviously would be prorated. He’s currently batting .320 with an obp of 424. Ops of 1.079. Between him and moose could one play 1st and solve that issue?

 

Sean Doolittle:

He’s been talked about a few times on this board and is having a relatively solid season. He’s owed $6 mil this year and $6 TEAM option for 2020 (this becomes mutual if he finishes 100 games combined in 2018 and 2019). Currently sitting with a 3.52 era / 1.39 whip / 11 k/9 ratio. Would be nice to have another lefty in the pen not named Claudio.

 

Either of these two realistic gets? Do the fix our needs? What would it take to get them?

[KeithStone53151]

Definitely names I would have at least some interest in. I think the Nationals are going to want to try and keep Rendon, they have an advantage there if they keep him the entire year. Doolittle has the option and they are contending, so my guess is they'd rather keep him. Overall, I don't think either guy gets traded...so I don't really see a match here personally.

[HiAndTight]

Nationals continue to struggle. Despite there high payroll they are 9 games below .500 and how some very expensive assets.

 

I’m going to assume the Brewers will be out on Scherzer/Strasburg based on the obscene numbers they are still owed. And filtering the needs of the team. Two names pop up as reasonable options that probably won’t come cheap.

 

Anthony Rendon:

Thought here is you get an all star level player for half a year. He’s owed $19 mil in his walk year, which obviously would be prorated. He’s currently batting .320 with an obp of 424. Ops of 1.079. Between him and moose could one play 1st and solve that issue?

 

Sean Doolittle:

He’s been talked about a few times on this board and is having a relatively solid season. He’s owed $6 mil this year and $6 TEAM option for 2020 (this becomes mutual if he finishes 100 games combined in 2018 and 2019). Currently sitting with a 3.52 era / 1.39 whip / 11 k/9 ratio. Would be nice to have another lefty in the pen not named Claudio.

 

Either of these two realistic gets? Do the fix our needs? What would it take to get them?

 

 

I don't think Rendon is realistic personally. That's also not where I'd be looking. He'd likely cost Hiura or Burnes+.

 

 

If I was the Nats, I'd be desperately looking for BP help as their starters are very good, but their BP is just abysmal. Seemingly every night they get 7/8 solid innings out of Scherzer/Stausburg/Corbin and their pen, which is on a historically bad pace kills them.

 

But Doolittle is exactly the type of guy I'd be looking at. I'd love to never see Claudio pitch for the Brewers again. I disliked that move when it happened and he always seems to be the guy who blows it(I know he's not, but it feels that way).

 

But yeah, Doolittle is perfect. He's not the final piece, but he'd be a very nice fit in our BP.

 

 

As for the guys you said we can't afford, I'd gladly take Scherzer if the Nats ate his deferred salary. Problem is, that would start to get really expensive. If the Nats had it their way, they'd be paying 70 million a year in 2050 for players who retired 25 years earlier.

[jerichoholicninja]

No player is going to cost Hiura or Burnes+ for 3 months of work. Those days are long gone.

[trwi7]

No player is going to cost Hiura or Burnes+ for 3 months of work. Those days are long gone.

 

It would for us because we don't have a second tier to choose from that would be at all enticing for the Nationals.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

No player is going to cost Hiura or Burnes+ for 3 months of work. Those days are long gone.

 

It would for us because I personally don't believe we have a second tier to choose from that would be at all enticing for the Nationals.

 

Fixed ... unless you work in the Nats front office, then by all means, go with the original.

[trwi7]

No player is going to cost Hiura or Burnes+ for 3 months of work. Those days are long gone.

 

It would for us because I personally don't believe we have a second tier to choose from that would be at all enticing for the Nationals.

 

Fixed ... unless you work in the Nats front office, then by all means, go with the original.

 

I'm sure the Nats would be thrilled to get Corey Ray (still not a top 100 prospect btw) and Lucas Erceg for Rendon.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

 

I'm sure the Nats would be thrilled to get Corey Ray (still not a top 100 prospect btw) and Lucas Erceg for Rendon.

 

Maybe ... maybe not. The only ones who truly know that work in the Nationals front office and scouting department.

[trwi7]

 

I'm sure the Nats would be thrilled to get Corey Ray (still not a top 100 prospect btw) and Lucas Erceg for Rendon.

 

Maybe ... maybe not. The only ones who truly know that work in the Nationals front office and scouting department.

 

I think we can confidently say they would not. If I said we could offer Hernan Perez for Mike Trout would you say we don't truly know how the Angels front office would feel about that? Nobody knows but we can certainly make educated guesses and a pretty easy educated guess is that the Nats would say no to our second tier of prospects for Rendon.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

 

I'm sure the Nats would be thrilled to get Corey Ray (still not a top 100 prospect btw) and Lucas Erceg for Rendon.

 

Maybe ... maybe not. The only ones who truly know that work in the Nationals front office and scouting department.

 

I think we can confidently say they would not. If I said we could offer Hernan Perez for Mike Trout would you say we don't truly know how the Angels front office would feel about that? Nobody knows but we can certainly make educated guesses and a pretty easy educated guess is that the Nats would say no to our second tier of prospects for Rendon.

 

I suppose that depends on how the Nats value prospects like Aaron Ashby or Payton Henry. The upside in this system is certainly skewing younger now than it has in previous years. It certainly doesn't help that several of the front-line prospects like Ray, Brown and Erceg are having mediocre to poor seasons so far. Being that he's a rental, the value the Nats will be able to recoup on Rendon would be limited. I imagine it would fall somewhere in excess of what the Brewers gave up for Moustakas, but likely not by a whole heck of a lot.

[Brew crew 92]

Imo, Rendon’s value will be similar to Machado’s at Last year’s deadline, he’s a much much better player than moose.

 

Rendon > Turang & Ashby

 

This is probably pretty close to what it would take, would you do it?

[TURBO]

Imo, Rendon’s value will be similar to Machado’s at Last year’s deadline, he’s a much much better player than moose.

 

Rendon > Turang & Ashby

 

This is probably pretty close to what it would take, would you do it?

 

No freaking way!

 

Not a chance.

 

Nope.

[JosephC]

Taking the average bWAR/fWAR from 2017-2019 (projecting 2019 out to a full season), and Rendon is a solid 6 WAR player. With 1/3 of the season gone, he still should be good for 4 WAR the rest of the way. At 1 WAR = 9 million, that's 36 million in value minus the 12.5 million he's due for the rest of the season puts his surplus value at 23.5 million. That would put his value at about the #80 hitter on the top 100 prospects list or the #69 pitcher on the top 100 prospects list. Ray might have actually been a pretty decent fit as piece number one in a deal but no reason to even try to debate that now as the injury (although it sounds minor) and his poor start has probably dropped his value by at least 25% (just to pull a number out of my rear). The Brewers really don't have a good comparable at this time. They would have to hope that Rendon just wouldn't have many other team interested (impossible!) and would have to open it up to the Nationals to hand-pick three or four players out of the system. I'd put Turang + Lutz value at about 23 million, so the numbers say it would be a fair swap. Rendon would likely be bid higher than that on the market. If the Nationals were willing to go quantity over quality in a deal, I'd guess a Turang plus Lutz plus Rasmussen plus one of the young Latin American players on the top 30 list would be at least a competitive offer.

[Fear The Chorizo]

No player is going to cost Hiura or Burnes+ for 3 months of work. Those days are long gone.

 

It would for us because we don't have a second tier to choose from that would be at all enticing for the Nationals.

 

I know, stinks we don't still have all those great prospects we traded away the past few years...if only we held onto brinson, Diaz, Yamamoto, Phillip's, ortiz, Lopez, Harrison, and others we could have a AAA team full of AAAA guys to trade again...

 

We have a second tier...its actually better than what our second tier has been previously - it's just much younger, which carries increased boom or bust risk by trading those type of guys away.

[adambr2]

Imo, Rendon’s value will be similar to Machado’s at Last year’s deadline, he’s a much much better player than moose.

 

Rendon > Turang & Ashby

 

This is probably pretty close to what it would take, would you do it?

 

No freaking way!

 

Not a chance.

 

Nope.

 

I think you're really underestimating how good Rendon is or overestimating Turang and Ashby. Rendon is an elite player. Turning and Ashby are nice prospects but a long, long ways away.

 

It's fine that you wouldn't do it, everyone has their own opinion on it but if anything it's probably not enough. It's less than the Machado sale price last year. I'd probably do Turang+Ashby without much hesitation. That's an absolute game changing bat at a position of need. I'd much prefer that over Burnes for Bumgarner.

[Brew crew 92]

Taking the average bWAR/fWAR from 2017-2019 (projecting 2019 out to a full season), and Rendon is a solid 6 WAR player. With 1/3 of the season gone, he still should be good for 4 WAR the rest of the way. At 1 WAR = 9 million, that's 36 million in value minus the 12.5 million he's due for the rest of the season puts his surplus value at 23.5 million. That would put his value at about the #80 hitter on the top 100 prospects list or the #69 pitcher on the top 100 prospects list. Ray might have actually been a pretty decent fit as piece number one in a deal but no reason to even try to debate that now as the injury (although it sounds minor) and his poor start has probably dropped his value by at least 25% (just to pull a number out of my rear). The Brewers really don't have a good comparable at this time. They would have to hope that Rendon just wouldn't have many other team interested (impossible!) and would have to open it up to the Nationals to hand-pick three or four players out of the system. I'd put Turang + Lutz value at about 23 million, so the numbers say it would be a fair swap. Rendon would likely be bid higher than that on the market. If the Nationals were willing to go quantity over quality in a deal, I'd guess a Turang plus Lutz plus Rasmussen plus one of the young Latin American players on the top 30 list would be at least a competitive offer.

 

No way is Stearns giving up the prospects that it would take to land Rendon. He didn’t for Machado last year. Imo, it will be higher salaried non-elite Quality bats/arms closer to the deadline, so as not to give up the Turang’s and Ashby’s And Rasmussen’s of the farm.

[MrTPlush]

It would cost Burnes, Yusnial Diaz>Corbin Burnes. That being said the Dodgers gave up a bunch of low level not highly ranked guys after that. I think you could have a shot starting with Turang if they like him, but you are probably then giving up 3 in the Top 10 or so. Our system is pretty sad these days. Without the premium guy being offered we probably get outbid unless we offer quite a few quality guys.

 

Would I give up Burnes for Rendon? If he keeps it up, 1B continues to be a disaster, and otherwise this team looks really legit...yah I would probably consider it. The impact of swapping Aguilar/Thames/other trash for Rendon would be pretty insane.

 

Would I do it now the way the team has looked collectively? No, I would have to be confident in my hypothetical postseason roster and out ability to win the division to make that kind of move. The Dodgers risked it on Machado because they were confident they weren't going to get stuck in some fluky WC game.

[OldHeidelberg]

Imo, Rendon’s value will be similar to Machado’s at Last year’s deadline, he’s a much much better player than moose.

 

Rendon > Turang & Ashby

 

This is probably pretty close to what it would take, would you do it?

 

Are you saying a rental of Rendon has more value than Turang and Ashby? No I wouldn't do that.

[JosephC]

I'd put the prospect surplus value of Turang and Ashby at 18.7 million and 4 months of Rendon's surplus value at 23.5 million.

[jerichoholicninja]

We're talking a couple months of Rendon. I don't think there's any way Stearns gives up any prospects of real value for that. What he's worth in a trade is a whole other discussion.

[adambr2]

We're talking a couple months of Rendon. I don't think there's any way Stearns gives up any prospects of real value for that. What he's worth in a trade is a whole other discussion.

 

I don't think we definitely know that to be true. I do believe we were definitely in on Machado last summer.

 

Is Hiura going in a rental, no way, but beyond that, I don't think Stearns has shown any aversion to rentals.

 

Also I think an overlooked value in rentals is a chance to sell a player on extending their stay in Milwaukee if all other options are equal. We've seen that with Moose and Gio. I doubt either are Brewers now if we hadn't rented them.

[Jaylyn]

We're talking a couple months of Rendon. I don't think there's any way Stearns gives up any prospects of real value for that. What he's worth in a trade is a whole other discussion.

 

I don't think we definitely know that to be true. I do believe we were definitely in on Machado last summer.

 

Is Hiura going in a rental, no way, but beyond that, I don't think Stearns has shown any aversion to rentals.

 

Also I think an overlooked value in rentals is a chance to sell a player on extending their stay in Milwaukee if all other options are equal. We've seen that with Moose and Gio. I doubt either are Brewers now if we hadn't rented them.

Your last point is very profound and appears to be true. My question is does Milwaukee have a bad rep among players until they actually play there? And Why?

[ThisIsMyCrew]

We're talking a couple months of Rendon. I don't think there's any way Stearns gives up any prospects of real value for that. What he's worth in a trade is a whole other discussion.

 

I don't think we definitely know that to be true. I do believe we were definitely in on Machado last summer.

 

Is Hiura going in a rental, no way, but beyond that, I don't think Stearns has shown any aversion to rentals.

 

Also I think an overlooked value in rentals is a chance to sell a player on extending their stay in Milwaukee if all other options are equal. We've seen that with Moose and Gio. I doubt either are Brewers now if we hadn't rented them.

Your last point is very profound and appears to be true. My question is does Milwaukee have a bad rep among players until they actually play there? And Why?

 

 

I’m not sure it has much to do with a bad rap as it does 1) Brewers being terrible for a long time 2) location is not on the coasts/big market

 

I think winning cures a lot of the recruitment gaps we’ve had in the past. Just my opinion that those are two of the gaps we’ve had as an organization.

[wntrtxn21]

I'd put the prospect surplus value of Turang and Ashby at 18.7 million and 4 months of Rendon's surplus value at 23.5 million.

 

How about surplus value in the following years? The Brewers have to look at the future too. They don't have the cash nor the farm system to lose high end prospects for a 3 month rental.

[trwi7]

I'd put the prospect surplus value of Turang and Ashby at 18.7 million and 4 months of Rendon's surplus value at 23.5 million.

 

How about surplus value in the following years? The Brewers have to look at the future too. They don't have the cash nor the farm system to lose high end prospects for a 3 month rental.

 

That is the following years. Now probably would be the time to go for it. The farm system sucks and most of the talent is in the low minors anyways. Might as well cash in for as much as you can and try to win in the next few years.