The Madison Bumgarner Thread: Burnes for Bumgarner [and other trade ideas]: would you do it?

[Point Beer Is Best]

I'm not sure he and Braun could co-exist after the incident last year which was completely brought on by Bumgarner.

[adambr2]

I'm not sure he and Braun could co-exist after the incident last year which was completely brought on by Bumgarner.

 

I don't really want him, but I wouldn't be too concerned about that. Bumgarner probably has a similar incident with half the teams in baseball. These guys are professionals and understand the expectation as teammates to move on from things like that.

[Madhawk23]

I came into this year hoping that Mad Bum would put up good numbers and that we'd make a run at trading for him at the deadline, but I just don't know now if I could get on board with this guy being a Brewer? He's got to be one of the biggest d-bags in the game today, and I just would really worry that he'd be the type of guy that would kill the great chemistry that this group seems to have again this year. There has to be better options out there, for guys that can help us - both on the field and in the clubhouse. Not sure if Mad Bum is that guy anymore?

[nate82]

Don't want to start a new thread but what would it take to get Strasberg? Strasberg could potentially be a rental as he has an opt out after this season.

[JosephC]

Also worth noting:

Madison Bumgarner-

bWAR = 2016 = 4.8, 2017 = 3.1, 2018 = 2.4, 2019 = 0.2 (projects to 0.6 over full season)

fWAR = 2016 = 4.3, 2017 = 1.6, 2018 = 1.2, 2019 = 1.2 (projects to 3.6 over full season)

 

Biggest WAR number one can get is taking Fangraphs current 1.2 WAR and pro-rating that over a full season. That would put him as being worth 2.4 WAR for the rest of this season. However, run prevention would definintely not support that high of a number (ERA currently 4.01), and there is not one other single number from 2017 forward that would support 2.4 WAR in value (for 2/3s of a season). Taking full season projections for 2019 and then adding in 2017 and 2018 numbers, Bumgarner is a 2.1 bWAR/fWAR pitcher. Since 2/3rds of the season is left, IMO a solid estimate for Bumgarner for the rest of 2019 would be 1.4 WAR. At 9 million per WAR that would be 12.6 million in value - 8 million salary for remainder of season = 4.6 million in surplus value. Even if one takes the most optimistic number, the 2.4 WAR I noted above, that would put his surplus value at 13.6 million. IMO, even the most optimistic number for Bumgarner does not put his value at a depressed surplus value for Ray, although it is in the ballpark and would be reasonable (Ray = 17.1 million, Bumgarner = 13.6 million).

I'm not sure you can even go with most optimistic number as his consistency the last 3 years and over 300IP is a 1.4 fWAR/100IP player. That's not horrible, but as your number crunching indicates, given contract status, he's really not worth much of anything. How about the rights to Victor Roache... Is he even still playing? What happened to Dykstra? Rights to Dave Krynzel? A pair of season tickets to the Brewers? I can't think of something tangible that would not be an overpay...

 

I calculated the numbers again yesterday and the most optimistic number had been the 2019 fWAR projected over a full season. He had a 1.2 fWAR on May 31, but now we are nearly two weeks down the road and he still has the same 1.2 fWAR. So now instead of pro-rating to a 3.6 fWAR over a full season, and then being worth 2.4 WAR from May 31 to the end of the season, now his season fWAR pro-rates to 3.0 and with 97 games remaining (for San Francisco), now he is only worth 1.8 fWAR from June 12 to the end of the season. Most optimistic number = 1.8 fWAR * 9 million = 16.2 million - 7.19 million in remaining salary = surplus value of 9 million (down 4.6 million just over the last two weeks).

 

I have a feeling that most offers will top out in the 8-12 million in surplus value range and the Giants will decide they don't even want to move him for that. A comp A pick is not worth 8-12 million but the Giants might be just as content to take a draft pick instead and be happy they don't have to face any fan backlash from trading him. Then Bumgarner gets the QO and ends up just re-signing with the Giants for the simple reason that they will value him more than any other team and will give him the best offer. We'll see what happens but that would be my best guess. If they put a price on him like a back end top 100 player plus another "role-player prospect," I'd be pretty stunned if a team would step up and meet that price. But we'll see. Most of the time this math comes close to matching what actually happens, but there is always one or two trades every year that seems pretty lopsided.

[DHonks]

I've never really wanted us to target MadBum because I think he's spent. So many long seasons due to his incredible postseasons have me very wary of having him. Take away his massive ballpark and the numbers might be pretty scary too.

 

Seems like Brewers fans feel this way every time a veteran comes around. The vast majority declared Hamels and Verlander done and washed up. Often times these veterans get re-invigorated with being on a good team.

[adambr2]

I've never really wanted us to target MadBum because I think he's spent. So many long seasons due to his incredible postseasons have me very wary of having him. Take away his massive ballpark and the numbers might be pretty scary too.

 

Seems like Brewers fans feel this way every time a veteran comes around. The vast majority declared Hamels and Verlander done and washed up. Often times these veterans get re-invigorated with being on a good team.

 

Kind of amazes me that it takes playing on a contender to motivate some of these guys. (I don't put Verlander in this category, but Hamels I definitely do). Anyone can be invigorated playing on a contender. If you still had that ace ability and you're sitting there going through the motions on a losing team and performing poorly, what does that tell me about how you're going to handle adversity?

[OnTheBlack]

I've never really wanted us to target MadBum because I think he's spent. So many long seasons due to his incredible postseasons have me very wary of having him. Take away his massive ballpark and the numbers might be pretty scary too.

 

Seems like Brewers fans feel this way every time a veteran comes around. The vast majority declared Hamels and Verlander done and washed up. Often times these veterans get re-invigorated with being on a good team.

 

 

I was a fan of Hamels. There were peripherals that suggested he was better than some thought. I liked Verlander, but I definitely thought he was on the downside of his career.

[OnTheBlack]

 

Kind of amazes me that it takes playing on a contender to motivate some of these guys. (I don't put Verlander in this category, but Hamels I definitely do). Anyone can be invigorated playing on a contender. If you still had that ace ability and you're sitting there going through the motions on a losing team and performing poorly, what does that tell me about how you're going to handle adversity?

 

 

It doesn't amaze me. The adrenaline that comes with pitching when it actually matters can make a huge difference. It's actually pretty easy for me to see how hard it would be to "get up" to pitch every 5 days and be at your best when your team isn't trying to win, ie, in a rebuild like the two mentioned above.

 

I think Bumgarner would be a great addition. I don't think pitchers with his type of pedigree can just be plugged into a formula and place his "surplus" or negative value into dollar amounts.

 

I'm not giving up Burnes for him, but I'd definitely like to see him. And if we're advocating for Bauer, can we really complain about Burmgarner? Is there something that makes him unlikable that I don't know about? Or are we just talking about him yelling a guys who watch their HR's? Because if it's the later, I actually gained more respect for him by saying basically, "well, he can do that, that's fine, but then let me be me and not like that he's doing that."

 

A helluva lot better than Mr. "what do I tell my kids," and then watch him scream and cuss out players on Baseball's biggest stage.

[DuWayne Steurer]

And if we're advocating for Bauer, can we really complain about Burmgarner? Is there something that makes him unlikable that I don't know about? Or are we just talking about him yelling a guys who watch their HR's? Because if it's the later, I actually gained more respect for him by saying basically, "well, he can do that, that's fine, but then let me be me and not like that he's doing that."

.

 

I won't advocate for Bauer because he literally stalked a girl on Twitter for 72 hours because she said something mildly mean about him in one Tweet.

 

Bumgarner, I would understand if the dude was just a "fiery competitor", but it's not about "letting kids be kids" and letting "madbum be himself", he is literally pitching a fit because people on the diamond won't conform to imaginary rules that he has created in his own head. It's stupid, silly, and absolutely unnecessary. That doesn't make him a fiery competitor, it just makes him a super intolerable jerk who behaves like a red-assed immature baby.

 

The other day Max Muncy hit a massive drive, LAID his bat down, took two walking steps, and Bumgarner was screaming at him to RUN, DONT WALK, until the cords on his neck were standing out, and the umpire had to get between him and Muncy. I mean......why?? Just to show everyone how fiery and awesome and what a protector of the game he is? What even is the point of that? If his feelings are that hurt by bat flips and guys watching homeruns, maybe he just needs some frickin anger management....

[DuWayne Steurer]

And if we're advocating for Bauer, can we really complain about Burmgarner? Is there something that makes him unlikable that I don't know about? Or are we just talking about him yelling a guys who watch their HR's? Because if it's the later, I actually gained more respect for him by saying basically, "well, he can do that, that's fine, but then let me be me and not like that he's doing that."

.

 

I won't advocate for Bauer because he literally stalked a girl on Twitter for 72 hours because she said something mildly mean about him in one Tweet.

 

Bumgarner, I would understand if the dude was just a "fiery competitor", but it's not about "letting kids be kids" and letting "madbum be himself", he is literally pitching a fit because people on the diamond won't conform to imaginary rules that he has created in his own head. It's stupid, silly, and absolutely unnecessary. That doesn't make him a fiery competitor, it just makes him a super intolerable jerk who behaves like a red-assed immature baby.

 

The other day Max Muncy hit a massive drive, LAID his bat down, took two walking steps, and Bumgarner was screaming at him to RUN, DONT WALK, until the cords on his neck were standing out, and the umpire had to get between him and Muncy. I mean......why?? Just to show everyone how fiery and awesome and what a protector of the game he is? What even is the point of that? If his feelings are that hurt by bat flips and guys watching homeruns, maybe he just needs some frickin anger management....

[rickh150]

No Burnes for Bum..... yet, I would consider other options for a playoff tested arm and mind like Bums.

[rickh150]

Since this trade for Bumgarner topic will be with us until July 31, how about a different title for this?

[Invader3K]

Since this trade for Bumgarner topic will be with us until July 31, how about a different title for this?

 

Done.

[coolhandluke121]

In a good trade, both teams get value. Thus, I'd give the Giants a three-day-old paper bag of dog crap for Bumgarner.

 

Oh sure, it's easy to say they should do this when you're talking about someone else's poo. Pretty obvious that the same people pushing for stuff like this would change their tune if it came to lighting their own poo on fire in deals like this though.

[KeithStone53151]

Bumgarner has been very mediocre this year. 3.87 ERA, 3.97 FIP and 4.07 xFIP...in one of the more pitcher friendly venues in baseball. I'll also add most of his road starts were in pitcher friendly environments as well if you look at his game log. His hard hit rate of 46.4% is 5% higher than last year, 11% higher than 2017, and 15% higher than any prior year. Overall, I would argue he's probably been a bit lucky this year...and who knows how much worse that would all be in a hitter friendly park.

 

All that said, looking at his gamelog is basically a dream for this team. He's worked at least 6 innings all but 1 start(5.2 innings) and has allowed 5 runs twice, 4 runs twice, 3 runs four times, 2 runs four times, 1 run twice, and 0 runs once. None of his starts were those dreadful 2-3 innings of 5+ run baseball type starts that we get on occasion. If he pitched roughly like that for the Brewers, that's incredibly valuable.

[HiAndTight]

And if we're advocating for Bauer, can we really complain about Burmgarner? Is there something that makes him unlikable that I don't know about? Or are we just talking about him yelling a guys who watch their HR's? Because if it's the later, I actually gained more respect for him by saying basically, "well, he can do that, that's fine, but then let me be me and not like that he's doing that."

.

 

I won't advocate for Bauer because he literally stalked a girl on Twitter for 72 hours because she said something mildly mean about him in one Tweet.

 

Bumgarner, I would understand if the dude was just a "fiery competitor", but it's not about "letting kids be kids" and letting "madbum be himself", he is literally pitching a fit because people on the diamond won't conform to imaginary rules that he has created in his own head. It's stupid, silly, and absolutely unnecessary. That doesn't make him a fiery competitor, it just makes him a super intolerable jerk who behaves like a red-assed immature baby.

 

The other day Max Muncy hit a massive drive, LAID his bat down, took two walking steps, and Bumgarner was screaming at him to RUN, DONT WALK, until the cords on his neck were standing out, and the umpire had to get between him and Muncy. I mean......why?? Just to show everyone how fiery and awesome and what a protector of the game he is? What even is the point of that? If his feelings are that hurt by bat flips and guys watching homeruns, maybe he just needs some frickin anger management....

 

Isn't this most of the best white pitchers who do this? Or actually just more established pitchers? Especially against your biggest rival.

 

I don't care enough about the yelling at guys to run or stupid baseball unwritten rules to nix a trade for him. I mean..I care in that I hate that pitchers whine about it and I hate that hitters have to do their stupid little bat flip and then some of them take SOOO absurdly long to get around the bases(Machado) that you do kinda want to smack them. But this is Baseball. Dealing with grown men throwing temper tantrums whilst making millions of dollars playing a game is pretty much standard.

 

It's stupid, I agree. I was always on Gomez's side, but I'll still take an older vet like him. We can't just close off our list to pitchers we like. That's CC and...I don't know, Kershaw seems like a pretty good dude?? Obviously, there are others, but a lot of pitchers act like idiots.

[coolhandluke121]

Lots of pitchers are like Bumgarner? Really? The guy is a damn disgrace. Not sure anyone else I've seen in my lifetime comes close to his levels of douchebagging.

[AKCheesehead]

I'd love it if somebody would hit a HR of Bumgarner and then stick the bat between their legs and gallop around the bases on their bat horsey. Maybe take off their hat and yell "yee haw" at the ol' Madbum too while they're at it.

 

There's just something about seeing a hothead jerk get antagonized that I'll always love.

 

Back on topic, I concur with having no interest whatsoever in seeing him wear a Brewers uniform.

[rickh150]

I'd love it if somebody would hit a HR of Bumgarner and then stick the bat between their legs and gallop around the bases on their bat horsey. Maybe take off their hat and yell "yee haw" at the ol' Madbum too while they're at it.

 

There's just something about seeing a hothead jerk get antagonized that I'll always love.

 

Back on topic, I concur with having no interest whatsoever in seeing him wear a Brewers uniform.

 

Maybe pitchers should start showboating a bit more in the name of "just let the players play" and see how the batters react to it. The "hothead jerk" pitcher would then be cool and the ticked off batter would be a hothead? It would be interesting to see the double talk and hypocrisy of all the Bryce Harpers in the game.

 

Bum is just what this team needs..... a starter who routinely throws a solid 6IP with some fire in his belly and ice water in his veins for late season baseball. Put him on a meaningful stage, ala Verlander, and his performance will get better as well.

[Jaylyn]

I'd love it if somebody would hit a HR of Bumgarner and then stick the bat between their legs and gallop around the bases on their bat horsey. Maybe take off their hat and yell "yee haw" at the ol' Madbum too while they're at it.

 

There's just something about seeing a hothead jerk get antagonized that I'll always love.

 

Back on topic, I concur with having no interest whatsoever in seeing him wear a Brewers uniform.

Someone needs to start a GoFundMe for that sole intent. The player that carries out the scenario gets the bank!

[OnTheBlack]

I'd love it if somebody would hit a HR of Bumgarner and then stick the bat between their legs and gallop around the bases on their bat horsey. Maybe take off their hat and yell "yee haw" at the ol' Madbum too while they're at it.

 

There's just something about seeing a hothead jerk get antagonized that I'll always love.

 

Back on topic, I concur with having no interest whatsoever in seeing him wear a Brewers uniform.

 

Maybe pitchers should start showboating a bit more in the name of "just let the players play" and see how the batters react to it. The "hothead jerk" pitcher would then be cool and the ticked off batter would be a hothead? It would be interesting to see the double talk and hypocrisy of all the Bryce Harpers in the game.

 

Bum is just what this team needs..... a starter who routinely throws a solid 6IP with some fire in his belly and ice water in his veins for late season baseball. Put him on a meaningful stage, ala Verlander, and his performance will get better as well.

 

 

Well, Verlander's that rare pitcher that just doesn't seem to be slowing down. Bumgarner, I don't mind him all that much. I'm sure I'd feel the same way about him if he were a Cardinal that everyone else does, I just am kinda numb to the whole "unwritten rule," nonsense.

[OnTheBlack]

Lots of pitchers are like Bumgarner? Really? The guy is a damn disgrace. Not sure anyone else I've seen in my lifetime comes close to his levels of douchebagging.

 

 

You ever see John Rocker, Chris Carpenter, Curt Schilling?

 

I don't know what the definition of "a lot" here is, but he's hardly rare that a pitcher throws a temper tantrum because of a perceived slight.

 

Oh, Dallas Braden just came to mind. Carlos Zambrono. It's actually quite easy to think of pitches who act like clowns.

 

Remember when Kenny Rodgers attacked a couple camera men? I seem to remember Papelbon in the middle of all types of nonsense.

[OnTheBlack]

And if we're advocating for Bauer, can we really complain about Burmgarner? Is there something that makes him unlikable that I don't know about? Or are we just talking about him yelling a guys who watch their HR's? Because if it's the later, I actually gained more respect for him by saying basically, "well, he can do that, that's fine, but then let me be me and not like that he's doing that."

.

 

I won't advocate for Bauer because he literally stalked a girl on Twitter for 72 hours because she said something mildly mean about him in one Tweet.

 

Bumgarner, I would understand if the dude was just a "fiery competitor", but it's not about "letting kids be kids" and letting "madbum be himself", he is literally pitching a fit because people on the diamond won't conform to imaginary rules that he has created in his own head. It's stupid, silly, and absolutely unnecessary. That doesn't make him a fiery competitor, it just makes him a super intolerable jerk who behaves like a red-assed immature baby.

 

The other day Max Muncy hit a massive drive, LAID his bat down, took two walking steps, and Bumgarner was screaming at him to RUN, DONT WALK, until the cords on his neck were standing out, and the umpire had to get between him and Muncy. I mean......why?? Just to show everyone how fiery and awesome and what a protector of the game he is? What even is the point of that? If his feelings are that hurt by bat flips and guys watching homeruns, maybe he just needs some frickin anger management....

 

 

Yes, I know this. I made a reference to it in my post you quoted. I paraphrased, but that's what he essentially said about the Muncy situation.

 

I just don't see this as being that rare. Pitchers are often clowns. I guess there have been a lot of pitchers that have set the bar pretty low for me. There's a lot of dog whistle talk that comes out of some of these guys mouths or just flat out calling out Latin American players for not playing "their game" the right way...or allowing them to come over there.

 

But I was genuinely asking. Like I said, you do see some pretty openly racist stuff come from some of these guys, so I was curious if it was just a grown man playing a kids game and throwing a tantrum because someone didn't conform to their set of unwritten rules or if he had done other things.

 

I understand if you think the temper itself is enough to call him a clown. I was just wondering if there was more to it that I hadn't heard.

[TURBO]

I hope this isn't getting traction. I'm no fan of this guy, or what it will end up costing to get him...Wonder if there is a chance that Will Smith will come along with him if a deal does get done?

 

 

According to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, the Astros, Twins, Braves, and Brewers are among the teams showing interest in Giants starter Madison Bumgarner.

 

Bumgarner made an early exit from his final start of the first half after getting hit on the left elbow by a line drive, but X-rays came back negative and he is lined up to pitch Saturday in Milwaukee. The 29-year-old impending free agent has registered a 4.03 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, and 115/24 K/BB ratio in 111 2/3 innings (19 starts) this season. The Astros, Braves, and Brewers are on his no-trade list -- the Twins are not -- but that shouldn't have much of an impact on the Giants' ability to conduct trade negotiations. Rosenthal notes that Bumgarner compiled the list "strategically" based on "the teams he figured might want him most."

 

Source: The Athletic

Jul 8, 2019, 11:15 AM ET