The Madison Bumgarner Thread: Burnes for Bumgarner [and other trade ideas]: would you do it?

[pacopete4]

Last year, the Cubs acquired Cole Hamels from Texas for Eddie Butler (since released), and two lower level minor league players. The return wasn't much for Texas however, the Cubs took on 14 million dollars in salary last year, plus another 20 million this year after picking up the club option.

 

In 2017, the Dodgers acquired rental starter Yu Darvish. The Dodgers sent Willie Calhoun (#60 prospect in MLB) plus two other minor league players.

 

Also in 2017, the Astros acquired Justin Verlander from Detroit for Franklin Perez (#41 prospect in MLB) and two other minor league players.

 

In 2015 when David Price was traded from Detroit to Toronto as a rental starter. Toronto sent their #1 prospect Daniel Norris, their #16 prospect Jairo Labourt and Matthew Boyd to Detroit.

 

Any sort of front line starter is going to cost either the Clubs top prospect or a legitimate top 100 prospect in MLB, plus other pieces.

 

#88-Corey Ray would be your man then. Not Burnes. If your post was about giving up Ray for MadBum, you might've had some better responses.

[MadThinker88]

But an injured Corey Ray (as he is now) is not worth much at all.

[Jopal78]

#88-Corey Ray would be your man then. Not Burnes. If your post was about giving up Ray for MadBum, you might've had some better responses.

 

That's kind of the point though. Nobody is going to trade for Corey Ray, he's hurt all the time, and hasn't exactly lit the world on fire with his play when he is healthy. With respect to Burnes, what other chips do they have that another team would actually covet?

[endaround]

#88-Corey Ray would be your man then. Not Burnes. If your post was about giving up Ray for MadBum, you might've had some better responses.

 

That's kind of the point though. Nobody is going to trade for Corey Ray, he's hurt all the time, and hasn't exactly lit the world on fire with his play when he is healthy. With respect to Burnes, what other chips do they have that another team would actually covet?

 

With Ray not hitting and injured, Dubon not hitting, and Brown pitching poorly the Brewers have Turang and Lutz as guys teams could build a deal around for top talent assuming Burnes and Hiura aren't being moved.

[OldHeidelberg]

I am sure Ray still has pretty good value. We have a small sample size bad start and a jammed finger that may have contributed, for a rental a lot of rebuilding teams would love to take a shot with his ceiling. Whether he fits for a trade with SF I don't know but like a lot of top Brewer prospects I would prefer they use him as part of a bigger trade with longer term value then flipping him for a couple of months of someone like MadBum. I just don't think he is as good anymore as some of the deadline rentals mentioned above, I guess it depends on needs and how close the team thinks they are for deals like this, as of today starting pitching doesn't seem like a critical need.

[wntrtxn21]

I am sure Ray still has pretty good value. We have a small sample size bad start and a jammed finger that may have contributed, for a rental a lot of rebuilding teams would love to take a shot with his ceiling. Whether he fits for a trade with SF I don't know but like a lot of top Brewer prospects I would prefer they use him as part of a bigger trade with longer term value then flipping him for a couple of months of someone like MadBum. I just don't think he is as good anymore as some of the deadline rentals mentioned above, I guess it depends on needs and how close the team thinks they are for deals like this, as of today starting pitching doesn't seem like a critical need.

 

Ray has little value as a prospect now. He has been terrible at all three of the high minor lgs.. A+ .238/.307/156 Ks -- AA .239/.323/176 Ks -- AAA .178/.259/49 Ks in only 101 ABs. He maybe a throw-in with other prospects, but certainly not the major part of the trade.

[wntrtxn21]

#88-Corey Ray would be your man then. Not Burnes. If your post was about giving up Ray for MadBum, you might've had some better responses.

 

That's kind of the point though. Nobody is going to trade for Corey Ray, he's hurt all the time, and hasn't exactly lit the world on fire with his play when he is healthy. With respect to Burnes, what other chips do they have that another team would actually covet?

 

With Ray not hitting and injured, Dubon not hitting, and Brown pitching poorly the Brewers have Turang and Lutz as guys teams could build a deal around for top talent assuming Burnes and Hiura aren't being moved.

 

I agree about Turang. I saw him play on the 28th. He looks pretty darn good. He went 2 for 4 with a 3B and a RBI. Smooth fielder. He has a high ceiling. You're right about Ray. He has been awful, but Dubon hasn't been doing badly. .285/.327.. He doesn't K very much and plays good defense. Lutz is struggling at Carolina right now. .228/.307. Not sure how he is viewed by other teams.

[OldHeidelberg]

I am sure Ray still has pretty good value. We have a small sample size bad start and a jammed finger that may have contributed, for a rental a lot of rebuilding teams would love to take a shot with his ceiling. Whether he fits for a trade with SF I don't know but like a lot of top Brewer prospects I would prefer they use him as part of a bigger trade with longer term value then flipping him for a couple of months of someone like MadBum. I just don't think he is as good anymore as some of the deadline rentals mentioned above, I guess it depends on needs and how close the team thinks they are for deals like this, as of today starting pitching doesn't seem like a critical need.

 

Ray has little value as a prospect now. He has been terrible at all three of the high minor lgs.. A+ .238/.307/156 Ks -- AA .239/.323/176 Ks -- AAA .178/.259/49 Ks in only 101 ABs. He maybe a throw-in with other prospects, but certainly not the major part of the trade.

 

As noted above Ray is ranked #88 overall at pipeline and that terrible year at AA last year somehow got him Southern League most outstanding player honors. It's been talked about here plenty that the hit tool is a concern but with his power and speed he only needs to be a .250 hitter to be a quality ML CF. I have no idea what MLB teams really think of his value but I doubt it is anywhere near as bleak as you make it sound.

[JosephC]

Ray definitely has value right now, but it's currently dipped because of the poor start and injury. I think if he was healthy and performing at an "average" level in AAA (say something like .235/.320/.460/.780), then the majority of MLB teams probably would view him as a #90 type player (surplus value = 22.5 million). But in the current situation, I'd guess that his average ranking if polling MLB teams would put him in the #150 range (surplus value = 17.1 million). So if you are Stearns, do you want to sell low on him now, and hold him and wait for him to get healthy and see if he can build on the 27 HR/37 SB season he had last year? If I'm Stearns, Ray is basically off the board for this reason. If some other team was willing to give back 22.5 million in surplus value, I'd be willing to trade Ray. But I don't think those offers would be forthcoming with the current situation.

 

Also worth noting:

Madison Bumgarner-

bWAR = 2016 = 4.8, 2017 = 3.1, 2018 = 2.4, 2019 = 0.2 (projects to 0.6 over full season)

fWAR = 2016 = 4.3, 2017 = 1.6, 2018 = 1.2, 2019 = 1.2 (projects to 3.6 over full season)

 

Biggest WAR number one can get is taking Fangraphs current 1.2 WAR and pro-rating that over a full season. That would put him as being worth 2.4 WAR for the rest of this season. However, run prevention would definintely not support that high of a number (ERA currently 4.01), and there is not one other single number from 2017 forward that would support 2.4 WAR in value (for 2/3s of a season). Taking full season projections for 2019 and then adding in 2017 and 2018 numbers, Bumgarner is a 2.1 bWAR/fWAR pitcher. Since 2/3rds of the season is left, IMO a solid estimate for Bumgarner for the rest of 2019 would be 1.4 WAR. At 9 million per WAR that would be 12.6 million in value - 8 million salary for remainder of season = 4.6 million in surplus value. Even if one takes the most optimistic number, the 2.4 WAR I noted above, that would put his surplus value at 13.6 million. IMO, even the most optimistic number for Bumgarner does not put his value at a depressed surplus value for Ray, although it is in the ballpark and would be reasonable (Ray = 17.1 million, Bumgarner = 13.6 million).

[pacopete4]

I've never really wanted us to target MadBum because I think he's spent. So many long seasons due to his incredible postseasons have me very wary of having him. Take away his massive ballpark and the numbers might be pretty scary too.

[wntrtxn21]

Ray definitely has value right now, but it's currently dipped because of the poor start and injury. I think if he was healthy and performing at an "average" level in AAA (say something like .235/.320/.460/.780), then the majority of MLB teams probably would view him as a #90 type player (surplus value = 22.5 million). But in the current situation, I'd guess that his average ranking if polling MLB teams would put him in the #150 range (surplus value = 17.1 million). So if you are Stearns, do you want to sell low on him now, and hold him and wait for him to get healthy and see if he can build on the 27 HR/37 SB season he had last year? If I'm Stearns, Ray is basically off the board for this reason. If some other team was willing to give back 22.5 million in surplus value, I'd be willing to trade Ray. But I don't think those offers would be forthcoming with the current situation.

 

Also worth noting:

Madison Bumgarner-

bWAR = 2016 = 4.8, 2017 = 3.1, 2018 = 2.4, 2019 = 0.2 (projects to 0.6 over full season)

fWAR = 2016 = 4.3, 2017 = 1.6, 2018 = 1.2, 2019 = 1.2 (projects to 3.6 over full season)

 

Biggest WAR number one can get is taking Fangraphs current 1.2 WAR and pro-rating that over a full season. That would put him as being worth 2.4 WAR for the rest of this season. However, run prevention would definintely not support that high of a number (ERA currently 4.01), and there is not one other single number from 2017 forward that would support 2.4 WAR in value (for 2/3s of a season). Taking full season projections for 2019 and then adding in 2017 and 2018 numbers, Bumgarner is a 2.1 bWAR/fWAR pitcher. Since 2/3rds of the season is left, IMO a solid estimate for Bumgarner for the rest of 2019 would be 1.4 WAR. At 9 million per WAR that would be 12.6 million in value - 8 million salary for remainder of season = 4.6 million in surplus value. Even if one takes the most optimistic number, the 2.4 WAR I noted above, that would put his surplus value at 13.6 million. IMO, even the most optimistic number for Bumgarner does not put his value at a depressed surplus value for Ray, although it is in the ballpark and would be reasonable (Ray = 17.1 million, Bumgarner = 13.6 million).

 

Are you saying an average AAA player is a #90 type player? Ray hit some HRs, but his BA/OBP and 179 whiffs say he's not close to a top 100 type player. Look at his A+ numbers. Again very low BA/OBP and extremely high whiff rate. Before he got hurt his AAA numbers were horrible. The Giants would take about a 1/2 second to turn down a Ray for Madbum deal.

[HiAndTight]

 

I agree about Turang. I saw him play on the 28th. He looks pretty darn good. He went 2 for 4 with a 3B and a RBI. Smooth fielder. He has a high ceiling. You're right about Ray. He has been awful, but Dubon hasn't been doing badly. .285/.327.. He doesn't K very much and plays good defense. Lutz is struggling at Carolina right now. .228/.307. Not sure how he is viewed by other teams.

 

Turang looks amazing and it's just so hard for me to fathom that he was in High School last year if you get a chance to watch him. I've seen him a couple times when I've been in Appleton. It'd be shocked if he didn't turn into at least a Brandon Crawford level player and I think he's got a real chance to be a Trea Turner type talent. I'd definitely be targeting him if I was another team and I would have him right up there with Hiura and Burnes as the guys I have as untouchable. Not sure if there would be a 4th player on list of young guys.

[Brew crew 92]

 

I agree about Turang. I saw him play on the 28th. He looks pretty darn good. He went 2 for 4 with a 3B and a RBI. Smooth fielder. He has a high ceiling. You're right about Ray. He has been awful, but Dubon hasn't been doing badly. .285/.327.. He doesn't K very much and plays good defense. Lutz is struggling at Carolina right now. .228/.307. Not sure how he is viewed by other teams.

 

Turang looks amazing and it's just so hard for me to fathom that he was in High School last year if you get a chance to watch him. I've seen him a couple times when I've been in Appleton. It'd be shocked if he didn't turn into at least a Brandon Crawford level player and I think he's got a real chance to be a Trea Turner type talent. I'd definitely be targeting him if I was another team and I would have him right up there with Hiura and Burnes as the guys I have as untouchable. Not sure if there would be a 4th player on list of young guys.

 

Rasmussen would be that 4th.

[jerichoholicninja]

I've never really wanted us to target MadBum because I think he's spent. So many long seasons due to his incredible postseasons have me very wary of having him. Take away his massive ballpark and the numbers might be pretty scary too.

 

I feel the same about him. He's been ridden hard every year and for a few deep postseason runs. Maybe's he's one of the exceptions but he's bound to crash at some point after so much mileage. Plus he's a turd who blows a gasket if a batter cracks the tiniest of a smile after homering off of him.

[dlk9s]

In a good trade, both teams get value. Thus, I'd give the Giants a three-day-old paper bag of dog crap for Bumgarner.

[A Swing and A Drive]

In a good trade, both teams get value. Thus, I'd give the Giants a three-day-old paper bag of dog crap for Bumgarner.

 

Well Burnes has been pitching like fresh poo.

 

I’d rather give that up than the 3 day old stuff.

[dlk9s]

Why would I want to trade for a player who gets ******** if someone gets a base hit off of him or takes it as a personal insult if an opponent (or teammate, probably) has the gall to enjoy playing baseball? Screw that guy. He's not Cy Young.

[xisxisxis]

Also worth noting:

Madison Bumgarner-

bWAR = 2016 = 4.8, 2017 = 3.1, 2018 = 2.4, 2019 = 0.2 (projects to 0.6 over full season)

fWAR = 2016 = 4.3, 2017 = 1.6, 2018 = 1.2, 2019 = 1.2 (projects to 3.6 over full season)

 

Biggest WAR number one can get is taking Fangraphs current 1.2 WAR and pro-rating that over a full season. That would put him as being worth 2.4 WAR for the rest of this season. However, run prevention would definintely not support that high of a number (ERA currently 4.01), and there is not one other single number from 2017 forward that would support 2.4 WAR in value (for 2/3s of a season). Taking full season projections for 2019 and then adding in 2017 and 2018 numbers, Bumgarner is a 2.1 bWAR/fWAR pitcher. Since 2/3rds of the season is left, IMO a solid estimate for Bumgarner for the rest of 2019 would be 1.4 WAR. At 9 million per WAR that would be 12.6 million in value - 8 million salary for remainder of season = 4.6 million in surplus value. Even if one takes the most optimistic number, the 2.4 WAR I noted above, that would put his surplus value at 13.6 million. IMO, even the most optimistic number for Bumgarner does not put his value at a depressed surplus value for Ray, although it is in the ballpark and would be reasonable (Ray = 17.1 million, Bumgarner = 13.6 million).

I'm not sure you can even go with most optimistic number as his consistency the last 3 years and over 300IP is a 1.4 fWAR/100IP player. That's not horrible, but as your number crunching indicates, given contract status, he's really not worth much of anything. How about the rights to Victor Roache... Is he even still playing? What happened to Dykstra? Rights to Dave Krynzel? A pair of season tickets to the Brewers? I can't think of something tangible that would not be an overpay...

[MrTPlush]

I don't think Bumgarner is good enough to warrant having him on a team with his douche bag self. He has always been a big douche bag, I don't need one that isn't elite.

[long ball]

I'd trade Burnes+ for Trevor Bauer if the Indians shop him.

 

I wouldn't trade him for a half season of Bumgarner though.

[adambr2]

There are so many reasons to say no to Bumgarner. He's been trending toward good-- not great the last few seasons. Despite that, the Giants are going to ask for the moon based on his name. They want four solid prospects for him. For a rental. Doesn't mean they'll get that, but it would cost much more than he's worth. He comes from a very pitcher friendly park and would be heading to a very hitter friendly park. Also, he's an extremely unlikeable dude. Normally I can look past that, but in his case it'd be tough.

 

I think CC Sabathia has really thrown expectations out of whack for a midseason rented big name.

[DuWayne Steurer]

Bumgarner's "play the right way" act is old and tired, and he's just not good enough to warrant putting up with his ego and tantrums, let alone giving up anything of value to get him.

[adambr2]

Bumgarner's "play the right way" act is old and tired, and he's just not good enough to warrant putting up with his ego and tantrums, let alone giving up anything of value to get him.

 

 

Exactly. The guy is averaging about a 4.00 FIP since the beginning of the 2017 season. He's not aging like Scherzer. He'll be expensive anyway. And as mentioned a million times, his personality sucks. Let the Yankees waste their prospect capital on him.

[brewmann04]

I don't think he even wants to come here.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I don't think he even wants to come here.

 

His "no trade" list is not representative of where he wants to or doesn't want to go. He included pretty much every playoff contender on it. It's a ploy that gives him a little power over his next destination. He included probable playoff teams become those are the only ones who would theoretically be interested.