OPS vs. Batting Average

[sbrylski]

http://i35.photobucket.com/albums/d175/sbrylski06/LP.jpg

 

Here is a graph of relative importance of OBP and SLG by linup position. I have some concerns with the accuracy of the study this is based off, but it's decently close and shows about how it varies.

 

You can see how the 3rd spot is less important than the 2nd and 4th, and also how important OBP is at the top of the order.

[Fatter than Joey]

Don't worry, FTJ. I got your back!

 

What What!!

[BillScottCanRake]

But for a guy like Prince, I'd rather see him try to crush a ball thats off the plate than work pitchers exclusively for BBs. It's like when teams do shifts on batters, and all a batter would have to do is bunt the ball down the third base line to get on base, but they never do it, because that batter probably represents the team's best chance at scoring runs.

 

I definately don't want Fielder going up to the plate looking to walk. If he gets a pitch that he can hit, I want him swinging.

 

That said, I don't want him swinging into out, either, because he won't accept a walk that was pitched to him. I'd rather have him on first with a walk than in the dugout because he tried to hit a ball that he couldn't.

 

Pitchers make a living out of getting guys to hit their pitches. The successful ones, anyways. Sometimes that's a pitch in a part of the strike zone that a hitter can't hit with any authority, and sometimes it's a pitch out of the zone. Either way, trying to hit those pitches is usually exactly what the pitcher wants, and most of the time I don't think it turns out too well.

 

Sometimes you have to go after a pitchers pitch because it is a strike. But if its a ball, I think they are better of taking the pitch and either looking for a better one later in the AB or letting the next guy do their job if you end up walking. I'd be willing to bet that a hit 'ball' turns into a base hit a lot less often, even for a guy like Fielder, than the next guy up who hits a 'strike', regardless of who that next guys is.

[endaround]

Very few hitters can hit balls for any power. Vlad can, but he really is still selective, he just has a bigger zone than most players. Soriano can hit balls for power, but his lack of selectivity kills his OBP.

[TheCouga23]

Maybe the best way to sum it up is:

 

The difference between getting on base in any manner and getting out is FAR greater than the difference between taking a walk and getting a single in terms of having your team score runs. Simply getting on base and not handing the bat over to the next guy with one extra out is the #1 way to score runs. The team that gets out at a slower rate will almost always score more runs. OBP is really just inverted out rate. AVG totally ignores walks, and HBP. But OBP does not ignore base hits. It's just a more complete stat.

[Fatter than Joey]

But OBP does not ignore base hits. It's just a more complete stat.

 

Agreed

[RoseBowlMtg]

Here is an interesting look at some Brewers OBP

In order of average:

 

1: Gwynn: .345

2: Hardy: .312

3: Jenkins: .303

4: Fielder: .293

5: Estrada: .286

6: Hall: .268

7: Mench: .266

8: Hart: .262

9: Weeks: .252

10: Counsell: .239

11: Miller: .222

12: Gross: .205

13: Graffanino: .198

 

Now let's look at OBP rank vs BA rank & difference:

 

1: Gwynn: .410: (1) (-)

2: Fielder: .375: (4) (+2)

3: Gross: .368: (12) (+9)

4: Counsell: .364: (10) (+6)

5: Jenkins: .357: (3) (-2)

6: Weeks: .355: (9) (+3)

6: Hardy: .355: (2) (-4)

8: Hall: .329: (7) (-1)

9: Hart: .323: (8) (-1)

10: Estrada: .306: (5) (-5)

11: Miller: .280: (11) (-)

12: Mench: .270: (6) (-6)

13: Graffanino: .268: (13) (-)

 

OBP skyrockets Gross and Counsell and indentifies people who criticize Ned for putting those two up top as non-OBP readers or believers. Breaking down stats does help you to show Ned's thinking.

 

What do you think is an acceptable OBP?

 

 

('fixed' the emoticon that accidentally appeared --1992casey)

[sbrylski]

OBP skyrockets Gross and Counsell and indentifies people who criticize Ned for putting those two up top as non-OBP readers or believers.

 

That's harsh. Its the small samples and projected OBP's for Counsell and Gwynn that have people criticizing Ned for putting them two up top. I don't believe their rates are sustainable.

[RoseBowlMtg]

Quote:

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That's harsh. Its the small samples and projected OBP's for Counsell and Gwynn that have people criticizing Ned for putting them two up top. I don't believe their rates are sustainable.

---

 

So what's the matter with putting them up there while they are doing what you need up there? Mench's success early this year gave him playing time and now he's not playing as much. Small sample which helped the team so why is this different? So few players on this team work the count that to me is benefitial up front.

[sbrylski]

So what's the matter with putting them up there while they are doing what you need up there? Mench's success early this year gave him playing time and now he's not playing as much. Small sample which helped the team so why is this different?

 

Because having a good week last week doesn't make it anymore likely that the player will do good the next week. Take your Kevin Mench. He did well, so we played him more and he struggled. A hot streak can end at any time, so you can't assume the player will play well that night.

 

This week, Counsell is more likely to hit for his career average OBP of ~.345 than his last weeks ~.410 or whatever it was.

[RoseBowlMtg]

Yes that is the everlasting question. How long to you ride a hot hand. They did it with Mench, they are currently doing it with Gwynn but he is slipping a bit. They did it with Gross for a game after he hit two dingers. All the talk of different lineups Ned has been pretty consistant only starting Counsell yesterday to give JJ a breather. Lefty/Righty and going with the hot hand has been pretty productive imo. Let's see how many Brewers work the count to 6 pitches at least. That would help imo.