OPS vs. Batting Average

[billyhallfan2]

you seem to be a very knowledgable baseball fan, that is very impressive...

[AJ Love]

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you seem to be a very knowledgable baseball fan, that is very impressive...

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I suppose, for a Tigers fan at least. (Just kidding). Welcome to Brewerfan.net!!!

[sbrylski]

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As this is something I experienced last year with the Tigers, the advice I can give now is not to worry too much about losing to really good teams on the road. All you need to do is beat up on the bad teams to be good, especially in the NL Central. No team, no matter how good, slaughters other good teams on the road. It didn't matter last year when the Tigers went into Fenway and lost 3 of 4 games. Beating up on the bad teams and sweeping them makes up for it. I'm glad the Brewers got at least one in Shea, and I will be satisfied if they only get one in Philly. Although two would be nice. If they finish this road trip losing more than they won, I wouldn't really be that upset. The fact is that the Brewers are a very talented team, and also a very deep team, so there is no reason why they shouldn't continue winning throughout the season.

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This is the paragraph I'm most impressed with.

 

We may have some very knowledgable people on this board, but we also have quite a few emotional ones. Its a long season guys, relax a bit.

 

Glad to have someone new on the forums that can help keep some people from jumping off bridges. Sometimes I stop visiting when all the doom posts start coming in.

[mothershipconnection]

C'mon guys, I thought this site was supposed to be controlled by a secret "inner circle" of elitests who mock all new posters.

[TheCouga23]

I guess I have yet to find out what blue text means...I've seen it on here before.

 

Edit: I think it means sarcasm, but I could be wrong. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

 

Edit again: I should really refresh my webpage and look at subsequent posts before making future edits http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[mothershipconnection]

Blue=sarcasm

[valpocrewsader]

blue text = sarcasm.

 

EDIT: mothership beat me to it.

[TooLiveBrew]

No it doesn't

[valpocrewsader]

The one thing that bothers me about OBP is that the probability of drawing a walk seems to be very dependent on the hitter's situation, whereas basehits seem to be mostly independent of situation. True, a batter might mentally prepare themselves differently if they are approaching the plate in different situations ... or a pitcher might "bear down" differently if there are runners aboard or something ... but that's practically impossible to measure. On the other hand, it's somewhat predictable to figue that a pitcher might, say, be more prone to walk a #8 hitter in the NL than any other hitter in the lineup.

 

Thus, I can't really put much weight into, say, Counsell's 2007 OBP. There should be some way to weight the fact that he bats #8 so frequently. He's a walk waiting to happen at two times a game. And actually, I almost think along the same situation-dependent lines about Rickie so far this year. It's nice that he's getting the walks, but it's almost like he's only walking with the bases empty. With runners on, it doesn't feel like he's producing OBP number at the same clip. (Would need to see numbers.) If my perception is right -- could easily be wrong -- it seems like there's a flaw in a stat (OBP) that has certain situations (bases empty) that are more batter friendly than compared to AVG which has the same degree of likelihood/difficulty no matter what the basepaths situation is.

 

Then again, batting average won't take into account how good the on deck hitter is, etc, etc. Obviously, there's no perfect stat -- numbers can't tell the whole story. I think everyone understands that, but sometimes I think OPS (and especially the OBP component) gets too much esteem.

 

 

EDIT: I managed to kill my signature. *cries*

[AJ Love]

Here is one thought as to putting OBP into perspective (i.e. it's an important stat but not an all-important stat):

 

Craig Counsell has a better career OBP than Robin Yount

[TheCouga23]

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About 1.8 times as important.

 

Welcome aboard, you'll fit in. Our board is different in the fact that "stat-heads" are the most vocal group!

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I did remember reading about this in the back of my mind somewhere. I never found out how they did this calculation. What I would like to know is how this regression was done. Were the numbers adjusted to reflect the fact that MLB players have a much higher range of SLG than OBP? Since OBP is on a scale of 0 to 1 and SLG is on a scale of 0 to 4, was this taken into account? Also, were these numbers standardized before regressing them against run scoring? Is a 90th percentile SLG equivelant to a 90th percentile OBP in this model?

 

I think I will fit in. I've been reading here for about a month, and I decided this was never going to work if I didn't join. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[valpocrewsader]

Welcome, Couga. Gotta ask ... 23 = Weeks or 23 = MJ?

[TheCouga23]

Just a random number actually. When I first got an account with hotmail 12 years ago or so, the name I wanted was taken, as well as the name with the first 22 numbers in order after it.

 

Also, Kirk Gibson was my favorite player as a kid, so it seemed to fit. But I really didn't think about that until after I got the account.

[RU Rah Rah]

I am still trying to wrap my mind around the idea of an All-Branyan v. All-Sanchez game.

[Fatter than Joey]

I am still trying to wrap my mind around the idea of an All-Branyan v. All-Sanchez game.

 

The most interesting aspect of this proposed matchup would be a bench-clearing brawl.

 

BA is worthless. A .250 hitter can be really good or useless...that's the definition of a stat that means nothing.

 

I disagree -- when used in concert with other stats BA has a use.

Case in point:

 

Thus, I can't really put much weight into, say, Counsell's 2007 OBP. There should be some way to weight the fact that he bats #8 so frequently.

 

Agreed -- Counsell has about as many hits as he does BBs, and as Valpo astutely points out, they are primarily to get to the pitcher, except in the cases where the pitcher hits better than Counsell.

 

Whats bothering me here is that people are saying "Counsell has the 4th best OBP on the Brewers" as if he has offensive value.

 

Also stats like walk/K ratios don't hold a lot of water for a guy like Estrada who doesn't do either very often.

 

I have to admit, I am first and foremost a Tigers fan.

 

I think they have 12 step programs for this. -- (Great posts!)

 

Urbina was getting into drunk fights on the plane,

 

Let's not forget lighting people on fire for using his hot tub...

 

And so far, it looks like Yost is fostering an agressive, winning attitude.

 

Let's hope so -- although I am ready to dial back the agressive baserunning a bit.

 

It is hard for me to compare Leyland and Yost, Leyland has taken 3 different teams to the post-season, Yost I think, has a few more corners to navigate (bullpen management).

 

We may have some very knowledgable people on this board, but we also have quite a few emotional ones. Its a long season guys, relax a bit.

 

Let's not pretend that the "Knowledgable" and "Emotional" sets do not intersect on the BFnet Venn diagram. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

[jwill535]

One thing you have to look at too is that OBP is a more important stat for different players. You are more concerned about RIckie Weeks OBP then you are with Bill Hall. Each player has a different role in the lineup and thus they're OBP will reflect that.

[uecker9]

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Counsell has about as many hits as he does BBs, and as Valpo astutely points out, they are primarily to get to the pitcher, except in the cases where the pitcher hits better than Counsell.

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I don't think that is true at all. About 4 of his 14 walks were to get to the pitcher and 2 times he scored, Bush double and the Victorino error. 3 have come when he was batting 1st or 2nd, 3 when leading off an inning and 4 late in games before a pinch hitter.

[BraunsBoyfriend]

One thing to consider, when discussing AVG and OBP is the difference when you subtract AVG from OBP (OBP - AVG). The larger this gap, the more walks the player is taking. This is a good thing and a bad thing, depending on where they bat and your point of view.

 

Consider two players have an OBP of .350. Player A has an AVG of .320 and player B has an AVG of .280. It's apparent that plater B walks quite a bit more. It's also apparent player A hits the ball better, as a greater part of his OBP is made up from AVG instead of BB.

 

Now consider they have similar SLG as well, so the extra hits player A is generating are basically singles. It would also mean he doesn't hit as many extra base hits as player B, by a slight margin potentially.

 

When deciding who should bat in front of who, you need to consider this. You want player B to bat in front of player A. Player B will draw more walks and get to first. Player A will more likely get a hit and go to first. If player A was on first and B walked, A would be on second. If player B gets to first and player A gets a base hit, player B can likely get to third.

 

So my point is a walk isn't as valuable as a basehit in terms of moving base runners around.

 

This is why, if you move Weeks down the lineup, he should bat in front of Estrada. Estrada hits the ball a lot and is able to move runners around the bases. Weeks walks a lot more (and is quicker). So you want Estradas bat moving him around.

[BillScottCanRake]

One thing you have to look at too is that OBP is a more important stat for different players. You are more concerned about RIckie Weeks OBP then you are with Bill Hall. Each player has a different role in the lineup and thus they're OBP will reflect that.

 

Players are placed in their spot in the batting order (or should be) based upon their skills, as opposed to letting their spot in the order dictate their approach. Instead of hitting someone like Estrada first and asking him to walk (when its obvious he only does so on special occasions), you should find another spot in the order for him.

 

As for the importance of OBP as it relates to a spot in the batting order, I think it's important no matter where you hit. When you don't get on base, you make an out. You only have three outs per inning, and only 27 per game. They are the only limiter to how many runs a team scores, and as such they are precious.

 

Regardless of where a person hits in the order, making outs is bad. Even if the hitter behind you isn't very good, you are almost always better off walking and letting the guy behind you do his job as opposed to trying to hit a pitchers pitch.

 

With regard to Hall, I don't want him not walking as much as he could because it's his job to drive in runs. He needs to drive in runs while still being selective and taking walks if that's what the pitcher gives him. Hall is far better off walking, even if it means he doesn't score the runner from third, than making a bad out trying to be a run producer.

 

This might be my all-time favorite thread... awesome job guys.

[TheCouga23]

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you are almost always better off walking and letting the guy behind you do his job as opposed to trying to hit a pitchers pitch.

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This is another good point. Detractors of OBP seem to see walks as an alternative to hits, when really they are in addition to hits. The fact is, most hitters are very poor at getting hits on pitches out of the strike zone. If you don't walk when a pitcher throws you balls, you are a lot more likely to get out. So if instead of not swinging at balls, you swing at them and get yourself out simply because you don't want to walk and you want to be a run producer, then you are making yourself a worse player. No player ever walked on pitches down the middle of the plate that were easy to get hits on.

 

So it's simple. If a pitcher throws you balls, you are unlikely to get a hit, so it's better to walk. If a pitcher throws you strikes, you are likely to get a hit, unless it is a very good pitcher that can fool you with pitches in the zone. But walks don't replace hits, they are a result of a pitcher giving you nothing to hit, and you making the most of it instead of swinging and missing or popping it up.

[Fatter than Joey]

About 4 of his 14 walks were to get to the pitcher and 2 times he scored, Bush double and the Victorino error.

 

WHOA -- I do not want to awaken and enrage the Craig Counsell fan base, I am only one man http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

I use Counsell as an example, of a guy whose OBP gives people the impression that he is a formidable offensive weapon or asset.

 

I think though my biggest gripe is that anytime my wife is watching the game with me we have the following dialogue

 

"Why does he bat like that".

I have no idea.

"I would think that he would get more hits if he didn't bat like that"

I don't know

"Why doesnt the coach make him change"

That's a good question

"I think the Brewers coach sucks"

He certainly does.

 

etc.

 

It's even happened to me at MP, where some dude will be sitting next to me for 7 innings and say nothing, and then lean over and say "Why does he bat like that?"

 

If a pitcher throws you balls, you are unlikely to get a hit, so it's better to walk.

 

Perhaps. -- In some cases certainly, however again I think it points to your place in the lineup or the game situation. If you are a guy like a TGJ, yeah a walk is as probably as good as most of his hits.

 

But for a guy like Prince, I'd rather see him try to crush a ball thats off the plate than work pitchers exclusively for BBs. It's like when teams do shifts on batters, and all a batter would have to do is bunt the ball down the third base line to get on base, but they never do it, because that batter probably represents the team's best chance at scoring runs.

[davego]

I am still trying to wrap my mind around the idea of an All-Branyan v. All-Sanchez game.

 

 

Clearly, that would be a PPV event.

[don1481]

Wow. I'm late to the party but wow. Nice first post Couga.

 

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I'll take a team full of Russel Branyans any day over a team full of Alex Sanchez. The All Sanchez team will bat over .300, the All Branyan team will bat .230, but the Branyan team will score a ton more runs. And that's not even considering the fielding errors and the baserunning blunders on the former team

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Although you *did* forget the in-fighting caused by the army of Sanchezes on the former team.

 

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OBP is why I think Counsell is under-rated by many here. Granted he doesn't have much of a BA or SLG % but the guy gets on base (.345 lifetime OBP)

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If we look at the 78 batters that qualified for the batting title last season in the NL, a .345 OBP would have him tied with Bill Hall for 53rd. Within the 160 qualified hitters in MLB last year, he would have been tied for 102nd.

 

So... the 25th percentile would be at about .334 (Adam Kennedy/Jaque Jones/Jimmy Rollins), the 75th percentile would be at about .374 (Brian Giles/Jorge Posada/Kevin Millar), and the 50th percentile was at .355 (Troy Glaus/Mike Cameron/Paul Lo Duca). So I'm going to go out on a limb here and say that Counsell's career .345 OBP isn't anything all that special.

 

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WHOA -- I do not want to awaken and enrage the Craig Counsell fan base, I am only one man

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Don't worry, FTJ. I got your back!

[Fatter than Joey]

There should be a way to simulate Branyan v. Sanchez.

 

I trust that the best labratories in Europe are well into cloning Branyan, -- to help rebuild their continent -- I suspect though Sanchez is probably further down the "Who should we clone" list though.

 

In the mean time someone here has to have a sim program that can do this.

[Tbadder]

I'm not a fan of OPS. It's too unweidly for my small mind, and besides I always immediately want to know the break down, so I can understand what kind of hitter I'm looking at. So I prefer to look at SLG and OBP separately, favoring OBP a little more.