Hader-Closing Out Games

[bill hAll Star]

Outside of the Yankees, it seems every teams' bullpen sucks this year. I wonder if MLB hitters have finally adjusted to everyone throwing 95+. Since the majority of relievers now are guys who throw hard with little control and not much for secondary pitches, it makes sense that bullpens are getting hammered.

 

As for Hader, I'm not really worried about him long term yet. The homeruns are obviously ridiculous but his K/9, BB/9, and WHIP are all career bests, not to mention outstanding numbers simply on their own. For a guy who everyone was concerned about throwing enough strikes when he came up, I honestly think he's throwing too many right now. Batters can get comfortable because they know he's coming with a fastball and it's probably going to be over the plate. I think back to last year and he had guys swinging at pitches that weren't even close to strikes a la Daniel Murphy. If you look at all the failed Brewer closers over the years, their downfall has been walks. That is not the issue for Josh. Even in his current disastrous second half, his BB/9 is still 1.4. Which is borderline elite. That would be 3rd best in all of baseball right now for the season.

 

A lot of the best relievers are guys that have high K/9 but a lot of them have a very low GB%.

 

Juice the baseball and keep telling more and more guys to launch the ball and there is a dropoff from some of the elite relievers.

[thebruce44]

Outside of the Yankees, it seems every teams' bullpen sucks this year. I wonder if MLB hitters have finally adjusted to everyone throwing 95+. Since the majority of relievers now are guys who throw hard with little control and not much for secondary pitches, it makes sense that bullpens are getting hammered.

 

As for Hader, I'm not really worried about him long term yet. The homeruns are obviously ridiculous but his K/9, BB/9, and WHIP are all career bests, not to mention outstanding numbers simply on their own. For a guy who everyone was concerned about throwing enough strikes when he came up, I honestly think he's throwing too many right now. Batters can get comfortable because they know he's coming with a fastball and it's probably going to be over the plate. I think back to last year and he had guys swinging at pitches that weren't even close to strikes a la Daniel Murphy. If you look at all the failed Brewer closers over the years, their downfall has been walks. That is not the issue for Josh. Even in his current disastrous second half, his BB/9 is still 1.4. Which is borderline elite. That would be 3rd best in all of baseball right now for the season.

 

When you consider that he is being asked to secure a lot of multi inning saves, it makes sense that he is looking to be as efficient as possible with his pitches. I think its a reasonable to assume that Hader would have better HR numbers if Knebel wasn't out the whole year, or the rest of the bullpen was better in general.

[thebruce44]

Outside of the Yankees, it seems every teams' bullpen sucks this year. I wonder if MLB hitters have finally adjusted to everyone throwing 95+. Since the majority of relievers now are guys who throw hard with little control and not much for secondary pitches, it makes sense that bullpens are getting hammered.

 

As for Hader, I'm not really worried about him long term yet. The homeruns are obviously ridiculous but his K/9, BB/9, and WHIP are all career bests, not to mention outstanding numbers simply on their own. For a guy who everyone was concerned about throwing enough strikes when he came up, I honestly think he's throwing too many right now. Batters can get comfortable because they know he's coming with a fastball and it's probably going to be over the plate. I think back to last year and he had guys swinging at pitches that weren't even close to strikes a la Daniel Murphy. If you look at all the failed Brewer closers over the years, their downfall has been walks. That is not the issue for Josh. Even in his current disastrous second half, his BB/9 is still 1.4. Which is borderline elite. That would be 3rd best in all of baseball right now for the season.

 

When you consider that he is being asked to secure a lot of multi inning saves, it makes sense that he is looking to be as efficient as possible with his pitches. I think its a reasonable to assume that Hader would have better HR numbers if Knebel wasn't out the whole year, or the rest of the bullpen was better in general.

[Lathund]

Outside of the Yankees, it seems every teams' bullpen sucks this year. I wonder if MLB hitters have finally adjusted to everyone throwing 95+. Since the majority of relievers now are guys who throw hard with little control and not much for secondary pitches, it makes sense that bullpens are getting hammered.

 

I know at least earlier in the season (Maybe 2 months in?) bullpen ERA was higher than starter ERA for, I believe, the first time ever. IIRC removing openers/"followers" from the data set didn't alter the numbers significantly, if at all. At the start of todays game, they were identical, a league average of 5.52 ERA.

 

I do think that adapting to fireballers is part of it, but I think it has more to do with usage. Fewer innings pitched by starters, who are generally better pitchers, means more innings by relievers. And up to a point that results in better run prevention as starters can avoid the third time through the order, and relievers can go all out for short stints. But more relief innings also means the average quality of relief innings goes down, both as a result of extra workload and due to worse pitchers seeing more innings. All those innings not pitched by starters with their 4 days of rest will be needed to be covered by others, and that leads to the AAA carousel for many teams, which again means more bad pitchers getting playing time. I'm pretty sure that the # of pitchers used in an MLB season has steadily increased as well. Will be interesting to see what teams do about this, if the trend towards more relief innings continues but with different usage, or if we've reached an equilibrium and will remain here.

[Brewcrewin07]

Maybe this has something to do with it...thought this was interesting...

 

Buster Olney

@Buster_ESPN

·

14h

As Josh Hader looks for answers to his HR issue this year, tempo might be one thing to consider. His pace on the mound has slowed dramatically this year, from 24.8 seconds in ‘18 between pitches to 30 seconds (157th of 164 mlb relievers).

[clancyphile]

Outside of the Yankees, it seems every teams' bullpen sucks this year. I wonder if MLB hitters have finally adjusted to everyone throwing 95+. Since the majority of relievers now are guys who throw hard with little control and not much for secondary pitches, it makes sense that bullpens are getting hammered.

 

As for Hader, I'm not really worried about him long term yet. The homeruns are obviously ridiculous but his K/9, BB/9, and WHIP are all career bests, not to mention outstanding numbers simply on their own. For a guy who everyone was concerned about throwing enough strikes when he came up, I honestly think he's throwing too many right now. Batters can get comfortable because they know he's coming with a fastball and it's probably going to be over the plate. I think back to last year and he had guys swinging at pitches that weren't even close to strikes a la Daniel Murphy. If you look at all the failed Brewer closers over the years, their downfall has been walks. That is not the issue for Josh. Even in his current disastrous second half, his BB/9 is still 1.4. Which is borderline elite. That would be 3rd best in all of baseball right now for the season.

 

MLB.com had a good rundown on Hader... and it makes sense.

https://www.mlb.com/news/josh-hader-has-a-home-run-problem

 

Some of the problem is this year's baseball. Some of it is a LOT of reliance on the four-seam fastball.

 

It may be too late for this season, but perhaps what Hader needs is to add the two-seam fastball to the four-seam, and to throw the slider and change-up more.

 

The fact is, hitters are sitting on the fastball, and combined with the new ball, the HRs went way up. Hader can't control the ball, but he can control what he throws, when.

[sveumrules]

For the month (0828-0928) prior to Game 163 last year, Hader finished the season allowing 11 ER in 14 IP.

 

He then pitched 2 scoreless IP in Game 163 & followed that up with 10 scoreless innings in the playoffs.

 

He started this year with 9 scoreless IP before giving up 6 ER over his next 5.2 IP. He followed up that two week rough patch with 36 IP/6 ER before his most recent 5 IP skid.

 

I think that Hader will once again bounce back & be back to his old self to close out the season. I'll say under 5 ER the rest of the way.

[tomwopat]

Would love to see some data on if there's any correlation between fastball location and the uptick in HR.

 

I have two hypothesis:

 

1) His release point and arm slot is inconsistent, possibly due to fatigue, which has diminished the late life and rise his FB needs to be deceptive to hitters

 

2) The consistency of his location is unchanged, but hitters have learned to recognize and sit on the FB lower in the zone

 

So as his armchair pitching coach, I think his FB is still a plus pitch, but he either needs to dial in the control, or develop a minimally effective second pitch.

[clancyphile]

For the month (0828-0928) prior to Game 163 last year, Hader finished the season allowing 11 ER in 14 IP.

 

He then pitched 2 scoreless IP in Game 163 & followed that up with 10 scoreless innings in the playoffs.

 

He started this year with 9 scoreless IP before giving up 6 ER over his next 5.2 IP. He followed up that two week rough patch with 36 IP/6 ER before his most recent 5 IP skid.

 

I think that Hader will once again bounce back & be back to his old self to close out the season. I'll say under 5 ER the rest of the way.

 

I have no doubts there will be some bounce-back, but there are steps that could be taken this off-season that could help minimize the slumps. Adding a two-seam fastball, and more use of the slider and change-up would make Hader that much more unhittable.

[jerichoholicninja]

You can't just say learn a new pitch and you'll be fine. Especially a 2-seamer which is very much a "you have it or you don't" pitch. His slider has shown to be very good at times. He just needs to throw it more, or at all.

[tmwiese55]

You can't just say learn a new pitch and you'll be fine. Especially a 2-seamer which is very much a "you have it or you don't" pitch. His slider has shown to be very good at times. He just needs to throw it more, or at all.

 

Exactly. He only throws 94-95. If they know it's coming MLB hitters are going to figure it out eventually. If you're at 101 like Chapman, not so much. I don't know why he's shyed away from the slider, it's a very good MLB pitch.

 

On this topic though, since he was starting in the minors. I'd assume he at least used to throw a changeup of some kind but can anyone verify any information on it? Just wondering if he's done it before then maybe it would be easier to add in at least a bit next year.

[clancyphile]

You can't just say learn a new pitch and you'll be fine. Especially a 2-seamer which is very much a "you have it or you don't" pitch. His slider has shown to be very good at times. He just needs to throw it more, or at all.

 

Exactly. He only throws 94-95. If they know it's coming MLB hitters are going to figure it out eventually. If you're at 101 like Chapman, not so much. I don't know why he's shyed away from the slider, it's a very good MLB pitch.

 

On this topic though, since he was starting in the minors. I'd assume he at least used to throw a changeup of some kind but can anyone verify any information on it? Just wondering if he's done it before then maybe it would be easier to add in at least a bit next year.

 

This is the purpose of the whole offseason. He can work the slider and change in, then add a two-seamer.

[Smichaelis9]

You can't just say learn a new pitch and you'll be fine. Especially a 2-seamer which is very much a "you have it or you don't" pitch. His slider has shown to be very good at times. He just needs to throw it more, or at all.

 

Exactly. He only throws 94-95. If they know it's coming MLB hitters are going to figure it out eventually. If you're at 101 like Chapman, not so much. I don't know why he's shyed away from the slider, it's a very good MLB pitch.

 

On this topic though, since he was starting in the minors. I'd assume he at least used to throw a changeup of some kind but can anyone verify any information on it? Just wondering if he's done it before then maybe it would be easier to add in at least a bit next year.

He actually was throwing changeups in the majors his rookie year. It was not nearly the pitch the slider is (or the fastball of course) but he mixed three pitches that year.

[RollieTime]

He needs to go back to using the changeup. Even if it’s just 8-10% of the time, with the slider being used 10-15% of the time, it would make him that much more effective. If he could spin a changeup over for a strike, it gives the hitter another pitch to keep in the back of their mind. Right now, they know they will see a fastball the majority of the time and won’t even bother swinging at anything other than the fastball. They just sit on it and wait. He doesn’t even need to locate the changeup that well for it to be effective. The change in speed will get the hitter way out in front thinking it’s a fastball.

[adamds22]

Maybe this has been said already but last year he mixed in his slider much more, I remember a post or an article on how his release slot was so similar between his fastball and his slider which was one of the reasons why he gave hitters such fits. It doesn't seem like he throws it much at all anymore so hitters are sitting on his fastball.

 

Armchair coach here but I'd like to see him only work true save situations, no more of this two inning stuff and have Albers/JJ/Freddy operate as setup based on situation, then see him mix in his slider much more often, especially vs lefties which seems to be a devastating pitch.

 

Maybe he's having issues with the slider though?