Win Probability Based on In-Game Events

[ccbrew]

It sounds interesting, but I'm not well-versed in statistics so I figured I'd check to see if you guys think this is legit or not.

 

NY Times Link

 

The actual site is here, although I'm not sure if you have to be a member or not to give it a try.

[rluzinski]

Fangraphs.com updates win probabilities live. It gives you a nice ballpark figure with regard to the probability of a team winning at any point in the game. One limitation that's very important to understand is that it assumes an average team vs. an average team. If the Brewers are up by 1 in the bottom of the 9th, they'll probably have better odds of winning than the WP indicates because Coco is an above average closer (unless, of course, the Brewers are up against an equally above average offense).

 

It can give you a great idea of what situations are better than others (3B with 1 out, vs. 1st and 2nd with no out, for instance).