Is Carter Stewart about to dramatically change baseball?

[MrTPlush]

Yup, you are probably thinking who Carter Stewart even is and you probably don't unless you follow the draft. Stewart was the #8 pick last year and was set for a big bonus until the Braves lowballed him after a wrist injury. He opted for junior college to go into the 2019 draft. His stock may have dropped, but he was still projected a bonus of around $2mil depending on where he would be drafted. However, he isn't going to the draft....nope, not back to college...JAPAN, the man is going to JAPAN.

 

You may be wondering why on earth this man is going to Japan, $7mil...that is why. 6 years and $7mil. Now he will get paid $7mil (possibly more as there are value enhancers of some sort) to develop over the next 6 years and then have the opportunity to go to the MLB at 25 years old. This vastly different than the 3 years of toiling through the minors for nothing and then league minimum for another 3 years in pre-arby. JUST to be controlled another 3 years.

 

Now coming over from Japan as a free agent isn't the most lucrative...at least not as lucrative as putting up stats stateside and then hitting free agency. However, with that being said Japanese players still get huge contracts if good and even Eric Thames proves you can get a big deal even if you may not be a superstar. Mind you he can hit FA at 25 instead of the 28+ he likely would have taking the MiLB route.

 

And sure maybe living in Japan away from home for the next 6 years kills some vibes, but maybe that sounds fun to some, idk. This guy just went against history to go to Japan where he will double or even triple the earnings he would have made here his first six years...of which would have been all not guaranteed except his ~$2mil signing bonus from the draft. He could totally flop here and have only had the $2mil to his name.

 

Dude could be a star in Japan, come back at 25, sign a contract north of $150mil easily, and still probably hit FA again in his low 30s if he wanted. I am trying to think of a reason why (barring living in Japan for 5+ years is okay to them) more guys shouldn't try and do this. It isn't a fool proof plan, but wow...considering how many guys flame out the fact he could secure $7mil is incredible. That is like Top 3 pick bonus money!

[OnTheBlack]

Doubt it. I don't think many kids want to move to Japan to maybe someday get a chance to play in the Big Leagues.

 

Also, it'll take 6 years to find out if he made the right decision. Or at least if he made a decision that'll pay off in a big way.

 

I think the whole "Stewart revolutionizing the draft," stuff is way overblown.

[sveumrules]

Japanese league has a limit of four foreign players per team, I believe, so only so many guys could go this route before available spots start to dry up.

 

I'd also imagine that most Japanese teams will still prefer to bring in AAAA veteran types to fill those slots over younger players with no pro experience.

[adambr2]

I'd have zero sympathy for MLB if draft prospects start bolting for Japan instead. They've been pinching pennies with minor league players for years without any incentive to change or any pressure from the MLBPA. It wouldn't hurt my feelings a bit to see them all start reaping what they've sewn on that.

[wntrtxn21]

I'd have zero sympathy for MLB if draft prospects start bolting for Japan instead. They've been pinching pennies with minor league players for years without any incentive to change or any pressure from the MLBPA. It wouldn't hurt my feelings a bit to see them all start reaping what they've sewn on that.

 

With Japan's limit on foreign players, they usually prefer proven MLB players. They don't usually have spots for unproven, rookie hitters. This won't become a trend.

[dlk9s]

He's the Brandon Jennings of baseball!

[OnTheBlack]

He's the Brandon Jennings of baseball!

 

 

That was actually far more likely to be a major game changer. You only go for one year and you are able to play yourself in a enormous market. So if you're a star like Zion, that would make sense. And yet you still don't see it. So I see that much less reason to see it in MLB.

[jerichoholicninja]

I'd have zero sympathy for MLB if draft prospects start bolting for Japan instead. They've been pinching pennies with minor league players for years without any incentive to change or any pressure from the MLBPA. It wouldn't hurt my feelings a bit to see them all start reaping what they've sewn on that.

 

The guys going to Japan are almost certainly going to be guys who would get big signing bonuses and not be affected that much by low minor league salaries.

 

I would bet the next CBA will contain some sort of new rule that will make more guys doing this nearly impossible.

[OnTheBlack]

I'd have zero sympathy for MLB if draft prospects start bolting for Japan instead. They've been pinching pennies with minor league players for years without any incentive to change or any pressure from the MLBPA. It wouldn't hurt my feelings a bit to see them all start reaping what they've sewn on that.

 

The guys going to Japan are almost certainly going to be guys who would get big signing bonuses and not be affected that much by low minor league salaries.

I would bet the next CBA will contain some sort of new rule that will make more guys doing this nearly impossible.

 

 

I doubt this is going to be a major focal point. And I don't know how they could really do this. If they did, I think they'd be solving a non-existent problem. I also just can't really think of a realistic way they could try to do this. They already have a rule that you have to be in a professional league recognized by MLB for 6 years before you can become a FA. Isn't that the solution right there? That's enough to deter most people from doing this. That's why the one guy doing this is a major story.

 

It would have been one thing if Strausburg and Harper went over to Japan. This is a guy who's projected to go in the 2nd round this year and who very few people would care about if he wasn't doing this.

[SRB]

Good for him, but I don't see it changing anything. He's in a unique situation where he was a top-10 pick that missed out on his payday and now his consensus value has tanked, so clearly a Japanese team still sees his potential on the higher end of things.

[FVBrewerFan]

Click bait post, got me. Doesn't change anything.

[nodakfan17]

I hope he’s getting $7 million dollars and not $7 million yen (~$600,000 USD). Better double check.

[JosephC]

Time will tell if this is a good investment or not for the Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks. Obviously if Stewart turns out to be a great player they will benefit from having him on the team and then being able to flip him for a posting fee that will probably be 3 times what they just paid for him. But there is always a chance he craps out which would make it a bad investment.

 

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/sports/2000/05/17/baseball/mlb/salaries-in-japanese-baseball-on-the-rise/#.XOXt0ndFxPY

 

So the average player on the highest payroll team makes roughly 885k per season. So let's just say the average player in the Nippon League makes 850k. Stewart gets 7 million over 6 years, so 1.167 million per season....1.3 times higher. As SRB pointed out, Carter's draft stock has significantly slipped since last year. MLB pipeline had him listed at #38 but Baseball America and some other ranking seemed to put him more in the 50-60 range. It just seems like a really big investment for a Japanese club for a player that isn't a real significant prospect anymore.

 

I do take my hat off to Scott Boras and Stewart for getting this deal because it certainly appears to be better than what he would have gotten in the USA. So credit to Boras for working in the best interest of his client. But if Boras really wants to break up the monopoly that MLB has an amateur players, then he better have big-time hope that Stewart is a hit for Fukuoka because if he's a miss then Japan probably won't be so anxious to throw this type of money at 18-19 amateurs in the future.

[JimH5]

I think it's pretty huge. It's certainly a creative way for a guy to get paid.

 

So many high level draft picks end up as busts, and their only real payday is their signing bonus. I'm glad he's getting his money. Hope he forces his way back to MLB.

[jerichoholicninja]

I'd have zero sympathy for MLB if draft prospects start bolting for Japan instead. They've been pinching pennies with minor league players for years without any incentive to change or any pressure from the MLBPA. It wouldn't hurt my feelings a bit to see them all start reaping what they've sewn on that.

 

The guys going to Japan are almost certainly going to be guys who would get big signing bonuses and not be affected that much by low minor league salaries.

I would bet the next CBA will contain some sort of new rule that will make more guys doing this nearly impossible.

 

 

I doubt this is going to be a major focal point. And I don't know how they could really do this. If they did, I think they'd be solving a non-existent problem. I also just can't really think of a realistic way they could try to do this. They already have a rule that you have to be in a professional league recognized by MLB for 6 years before you can become a FA. Isn't that the solution right there? That's enough to deter most people from doing this. That's why the one guy doing this is a major story.

 

It would have been one thing if Strausburg and Harper went over to Japan. This is a guy who's projected to go in the 2nd round this year and who very few people would care about if he wasn't doing this.

 

Isn't already basically forbidden for MLB teams to sign amateur players from Japan and somehow Canadians are eligible for the MLB draft while kids from every other country in the world are considered international free agents. MLB will come up with something. They've shown they're never short on stupid ideas.

[Point Beer Is Best]

So I'm assuming that 6 years is the magic number that would preclude him from being team-controlled when he came back, and would declare him a free agent?. Is that correct?

[MrTPlush]

So I'm assuming that 6 years is the magic number that would preclude him from being team-controlled when he came back, and would declare him a free agent?. Is that correct?

 

Correct, after the six years he is free to sign with anyone. I saw something about the Japanese team needing to post him...but I don't see why they wouldn't if that is the case.

[jerichoholicninja]

So I'm assuming that 6 years is the magic number that would preclude him from being team-controlled when he came back, and would declare him a free agent?. Is that correct?

 

Correct, after the six years he is free to sign with anyone. I saw something about the Japanese team needing to post him...but I don't see why they wouldn't if that is the case.

 

I would guess it's because he would still be under control of his Japanese team which has him for 10 years, even though his contract is up.

[MrTPlush]

So I'm assuming that 6 years is the magic number that would preclude him from being team-controlled when he came back, and would declare him a free agent?. Is that correct?

 

Correct, after the six years he is free to sign with anyone. I saw something about the Japanese team needing to post him...but I don't see why they wouldn't if that is the case.

 

I would guess it's because he would still be under control of his Japanese team which has him for 10 years, even though his contract is up.

 

That is what I assumed, but regardless at that point he is either good enough to draw interest from the MLB (where the Japanese team would take the money for posting him) or he sucks that much and might as well stay in Japan or retire.

[OldHeidelberg]

 

 

Isn't already basically forbidden for MLB teams to sign amateur players from Japan and somehow Canadians are eligible for the MLB draft while kids from every other country in the world are considered international free agents. MLB will come up with something. They've shown they're never short on stupid ideas.

 

I guess I never thought about it before but wouldn't this be because of the existence of the Toronto Blue Jays?

[jerichoholicninja]

 

 

Isn't already basically forbidden for MLB teams to sign amateur players from Japan and somehow Canadians are eligible for the MLB draft while kids from every other country in the world are considered international free agents. MLB will come up with something. They've shown they're never short on stupid ideas.

 

I guess I never thought about it before but wouldn't this be because of the existence of the Toronto Blue Jays?

 

Maybe. I just did a quick google and could find no answer.

[GAME05]

But that also means he's declining a sizeable signing bonus with an MLB team. Sure it's more money with Japan, but when you're rich either way I don't know how that's necessarily a better option. I don't see this becoming a real trend nor changing much of anything about the MLB draft process.

[JimH5]

But that also means he's declining a sizeable signing bonus with an MLB team. Sure it's more money with Japan, but when you're rich either way I don't know how that's necessarily a better option. I don't see this becoming a real trend nor changing much of anything about the MLB draft process.

 

A $6 million guarantee is significantly better than a $1.5 million guarantee.

 

He thinks (and the Japanese team thinks) that he is worth more than the MLB slotting system thinks he should be forced to take.

 

And that $1.5 isn't nearly enough to sustain him over his lifetime.

[JosephC]

But that also means he's declining a sizeable signing bonus with an MLB team. Sure it's more money with Japan, but when you're rich either way I don't know how that's necessarily a better option. I don't see this becoming a real trend nor changing much of anything about the MLB draft process.

 

This probably won't have any impact on how MLB handles the MLB draft because Stewart just isn't high profile enough to change anything. If I was a MLB owner, I could care less if the #50 prospect went off the board to play in Japan. If Joe Gray had done the same last year, the Brewers would have just picked a different player and 99.999999% of MLB fans would have already forgotten all about Joe Gray.

 

It will be interesting to see if an agent could convince the next Harper or Strasburg to give up an 8.5 million dollar signing bonus from MLB if a Japanese team was willing to pay 15 million. That might be a motivator for MLB to handle the draft differently. I very much doubt this would happen though, when seeing the extension a player like Eloy Jimenez got, I think it would make more financial sense for a "can't miss" prospect to take smaller money in terms of a signing bonus in hopes or getting a much bigger extension after 3 years playing baseball in the USA. But we would have to see how that would play out.

 

MLB probably does have concerns about Kyler Murray because that was high profile and Murray will remain in the public eye in the USA. But will that motivate MLB to do a significant overhaul to the draft process? I wouldn't think so, just because there just won't be very many prospects like that, and that would make it pretty foolish to overhaul a system based on something that so rarely happens. Baseball has dealt with high school athletes opting to go to college to play football for decades and it doesn't seem to have hurt their business. If anything, I wouldn't be surprised to see an expansion of the comp rule pick, where teams would not only get a replacement pick if their selection doesn't sign but also if he signs and then opts to play a different sport within 1.5 years of when the pick was initially made (or something along those lines).

 

The biggest thing moving forward will be to see how Stewart performs in Japan. From what I've read, it seems Nippon Professional Baseball is considered either right at or just a notch above AAA baseball. How many first round pitchers don't even see AAA? I can't see too many other Japanese teams continue to make this type of investment if Stewart turns out to be a bust. I would not have made this investment if I was a Japanese team. Not with what I know about Carter Stewart. Now if it was Jackson Rutledge for an extra 1 million dollars (8 million instead of 7 million), that would be a different story.