SABR FAQ - First Draft

[rluzinski]

Win Expectancy Finder

 

Fun to play with.... um.. that guy uses this to make those Brewer charts. Help me out here!

[brettac1]

Baseball Musings Day by Day Database

Baseball Reference

Baseball Prospectus

 

EDIT: Since I asked for it, I'll post it. I imagine rluz will delve into this much deeper than just a link, but:

 

Article about Bill James' Log5 Equation

[ILBrewerFan]

Does anybody know where you can download statistics (preferably at the lowest level possible (i.e. Player/Game/AB). Any format (.txt, .db, .xls, etc).

 

Thanks,

Shannon

[bball123h2]

I used this for my senior paper in college (of course, about the Brewers):

 

Baseball Statistics

 

Hope this helps!

[ILBrewerFan]

I used this for my senior paper in college (of course, about the Brewers):

 

Thanks. I found that one, but I believe those are yearly numbers. I was looking for something a little more disaggregate. It's a nice history however so I think I'll grab it anyway. Thanks again.

[bball123h2]

Yea, sorry bout that. Misread your post...

[rluzinski]

Does anybody know where you can download statistics (preferably at the lowest level possible (i.e. Player/Game/AB). Any format (.txt, .db, .xls, etc).

 

The easiest thing to do (that I've found):

 

1. Copy stats from ESPN.com or where ever and save in notepad (take spaces out of team names, WhiteSox for instance).

 

2. Open in excel (make sure to choose .txt) and choose "delimited" then "next" then "space".

 

At the end of the season I'll do it for league team stats and Brewer stats, so I can shoot them to you if you like.

[rluzinski]

This really needs to get cleaned up. We need a single pinned thread with just links, organized by topics (like what 1992casey did earlier in this thread).

 

Isn't there a way to open up a single post to editing by all?

[Time for a Miller]

Uhhh, I hope someone out there hears this. The last post on this thread was over a year ago. Can someone clean this up and just post some good links?

[fitz19]

Underestimating the Fog - Bill James

[rluzinski]

"In baseball, the danger of using small sample sizes boils down to a a phenomenon called regression to the mean. Most of you have at least heard of this concept, and practically everybody utilizes it intuitively in their everyday lives. Regression to the mean, simply put, is the tendency for any observation to be less extreme on subsequent observations."

Staturday: Small sample size

 

This is a must read.

[TooLiveBrew]

"I think I've been called, indirectly at least, a small sample size Nazi. I don't have the patience to discuss with anybody who insists on using small sample sizes as the basis for their argument. It's dangerous, it's wrong, and you should never, ever do it. Let's talk about why that is.

...

...for any player, you have "true skill" and "actual performance." We too often think that "actual performance" is "true skill." That's incorrect. A player has a true skill, and he utilizes that true skill to accumulate actual performance data. But those data are only random samples from his true skill."

 

This should be posted as a banner atop the forums... especially the bold part.

 

 

Forecasting performance based on regressing to the major league mean is actually remarkably accurate. Projecting a player's performance by simple regression to the league mean is almost as good as systems like PECOTA, Chone, or ZiPS.

Who knew? http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

 

Great read; thanks for sharing that rluz.

[RyDogg66]

Where can I find current BABIP and LD% for players this season?

[sbrylski]

Where can I find current BABIP and LD% for players this season?

Fangraphs.com is where I go.

 

[logan82]

This site has it as well.

 

http://www.hardballtimes.com/

[rluzinski]

Great "Regression to the Mean" Article:

 

http://www.countthebasket.com/blog/2008/05/19/regression-to-the-mean/

[zurch1818]

I'm relatively new to Sabermetrics, but I did just stumble upon this blog which I would like to deem "for dummies." I read it and feel much more confident in the use of SABR.

[rluzinski]

I'm relatively new to Sabermetrics, but I did just stumble upon this blog which I would like to deem "for dummies." I read it and feel much more confident in the use of SABR.

Nice find!

[rluzinski]

Strikeouts are absolutely bad for a batter. The point is that an out on a ball in play is almost equally as bad. The key is to compare an out with an out, not an out with a BIP.

[homer]

RUSS. Welcome back!

[Baldkin]

Strikeouts are absolutely bad for a batter. The point is that an out on a ball in play is almost equally as bad. The key is to compare an out with an out, not an out with a BIP.

 

First a BTA sighting now a Russ sighting.... wow. Who's next?

[Oxy]

Right here:

 

www.tangotiger.net/RE9902.html

 

There may be a newer one, but this is usually the one I reference when I mention Run Expectancy.

 

Is there an update to this chart, or perhaps even a reference to a previous time in baseball (that wasn't 1935-1938....really just anytime that isn't those two times).

[Oxy]

Strikeouts are absolutely bad for a batter. The point is that an out on a ball in play is almost equally as bad. The key is to compare an out with an out, not an out with a BIP.

 

pffft. Sometimes a BIP out is twice as bad as a K, especially if the bases are loaded with 1 out and Yasmani Grandel is catching a forkballer in the playoffs. Then maybe a K isn't so bad.

 

Timing is everything.