What can Dubon get us?

[Madhawk23]

I saw someone mentioned Dubon in the "Giants relievers" thread as a trade piece in a trade for Will Smith. Personally, I think that seems a bit steep to be giving up one of our top prospects for a reliever rental - but maybe I'm wrong? If I'm not wrong though - what type of player could we use Dubon this summer to go get that would help us in the 2nd half? With Dubon blocked by Arcia and Hiura, he would seem to be a great trade piece for us - but I'm curious what type of value he would have in a trade?

[jerichoholicninja]

Not much. A utility guy with average at best bat isn't worth much in a trade.

[coolhandluke121]

Can they trade him to ESPN for something? I bet they'd give up a lot.

 

http://www.espn.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/77174/who-will-be-the-next-hall-of-famer-for-each-mlb-team

[MrTPlush]

Can they trade him to ESPN for something? I bet they'd give up a lot.

 

http://www.espn.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/77174/who-will-be-the-next-hall-of-famer-for-each-mlb-team

 

"Milwaukee Brewers: Mauricio Dubon (2047). In one of the great heists in trade history, Dubon came over from the Red Sox as part of the Tyler Thornburg trade in 2016 and ends up winning four batting titles, stealing more than 300 bases and playing good shortstop for more than a decade with the Brewers."

[Roderick]

Can they trade him to ESPN for something? I bet they'd give up a lot.

 

http://www.espn.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/77174/who-will-be-the-next-hall-of-famer-for-each-mlb-team

 

"Milwaukee Brewers: Mauricio Dubon (2047). In one of the great heists in trade history, Dubon came over from the Red Sox as part of the Tyler Thornburg trade in 2016 and ends up winning four batting titles, stealing more than 300 bases and playing good shortstop for more than a decade with the Brewers."

 

Maybe Dubon saves the presidents life in 2046 or cures cancer or some such after his baseball career.

[And That]

Dubon has more than a little value, how much depends on how other teams value him as an MLB prospect. At a 45 OFP (utility/part-time starter), he's worth about $10.5 MM in excess value. If you're more bullish and think he's a 50 OFP (average MLB starter), he's worth about $26MM in excess value.

[coolhandluke121]

Can they trade him to ESPN for something? I bet they'd give up a lot.

 

http://www.espn.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/77174/who-will-be-the-next-hall-of-famer-for-each-mlb-team

 

"Milwaukee Brewers: Mauricio Dubon (2047). In one of the great heists in trade history, Dubon came over from the Red Sox as part of the Tyler Thornburg trade in 2016 and ends up winning four batting titles, stealing more than 300 bases and playing good shortstop for more than a decade with the Brewers."

 

While searching for that old blog post, I found a recent post (March 2019 on mlb.com) that had Braun as the Brewers' next HOF player, which is even dumber because now that they have Yelich it should be a much easier choice.

[trwi7]

Personally, I think that seems a bit steep to be giving up one of our top prospects for a reliever rental

 

Our top prospects are a lot worse than other teams' top prospects. We're not giving up Wander Franco or even a Cole Tucker here.

[wntrtxn21]

Dubon has more than a little value, how much depends on how other teams value him as an MLB prospect. At a 45 OFP (utility/part-time starter), he's worth about $10.5 MM in excess value. If you're more bullish and think he's a 50 OFP (average MLB starter), he's worth about $26MM in excess value.

 

The scouting report I saw on Dubon had him at a 34 OFP. A fringe MLB bench player at best. Little value in a trade. I guess it depends on how you see Dubon.

[adambr2]

The best I could see for Dubon is being a Will Smith type reliever headliner.

 

There just isn't a lot of trade value on the farm anymore. Turang is probably our most valuable piece but far too raw to not be trumped by somebody else's better offer for anything significant. Guys like Ray, Erceg, and Lutz could probably bring back a secondary helpful piece.

 

Frankly we probably won't be seeing the ace pitcher type trade proposals that we normally see in July because we simply don't have the arsenal anymore without including some solid MLB talent.

[nodakfan17]

Can they trade him to ESPN for something? I bet they'd give up a lot.

 

http://www.espn.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/77174/who-will-be-the-next-hall-of-famer-for-each-mlb-team

The same article listed Yordano Ventura as the Royals next HOF player. Between that and Dubon, I briefly thought I was reading a really awful piece of satire. Then I realized it was published 2 weeks before Ventura passed away. Sad.

[And That]

The scouting report I saw on Dubon had him at a 34 OFP. A fringe MLB bench player at best. Little value in a trade. I guess it depends on how you see Dubon.

OFP is generally given in increments of 5, so I would be curious to see where you saw a 34. I haven't seen a 35 or even 40 on him.

 

Some of Dubon's publically available recent OFP grades:

BA: 45

BPro: 50

MLB Pipeline: 50

FG: 45

Prospects Live: 45

Baseball HQ: 50

 

Basically, either 45 or 50, depending on who you talk to. FanGraphs are more conservative than most on their OFP (they call it FV) ratings, so if they have a 45 on him, that's basically the baseline.

[MrTPlush]

Can they trade him to ESPN for something? I bet they'd give up a lot.

 

http://www.espn.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/77174/who-will-be-the-next-hall-of-famer-for-each-mlb-team

 

"Milwaukee Brewers: Mauricio Dubon (2047). In one of the great heists in trade history, Dubon came over from the Red Sox as part of the Tyler Thornburg trade in 2016 and ends up winning four batting titles, stealing more than 300 bases and playing good shortstop for more than a decade with the Brewers."

 

While searching for that old blog post, I found a recent post (March 2019 on mlb.com) that had Braun as the Brewers' next HOF player, which is even dumber because now that they have Yelich it should be a much easier choice.

 

I think I would bet on Ryan Braun resurrecting his career over Yelich not only staying one of the best in the bigs, but resigning with us at this point.

 

Braun is at 46.8 WAR on BRef….which ~60ish usually points to HOF. If PEDs become a thing of the past among a few other mini miracles he could make it. Of course I am not that serious...but I also think Yelich in the HOF and as a Brewers is crazy ridiculous too.

[Outlander]

I wouldn't, Braun has none of the counting stats to ever be a hall of fame player, basically has no shot anymore. Yelich is around 15-20% to get 3,000 hits. Whether Yelich stays with the Brewers is another story but for sure the best bet to be inducted as a Brewer into the Hall of Fame.

[JohnBriggs12]

I wouldn't, Braun has none of the counting stats to ever be a hall of fame player, basically has no shot anymore. Yelich is around 15-20% to get 3,000 hits. Whether Yelich stays with the Brewers is another story but for sure the best bet to be inducted as a Brewer into the Hall of Fame.

 

Braun still has at minimum 2 1/2 more years to accumulate counting stats and he's on pace for 30 HR this year. 400 for his career is not totally out of reach. His 5 best years, 07, 08, 09, 11 and 12 are comparable to many HOFers. He's got 2 others, 10 and 16 that approach those. If he can add 3 more seasons on par with 2016 (admittedly a long shot), he's in the discussion if not for his PED suspension and his failure to come clean after failing the test.

He's 2 points shy of being a career .300 hitter and 6 points shy of a career .900 OPS. Should he stay relatively healthy and manages to bump those career numbers up to those levels, a case can be made if not for the PED issues regardless of his counting stats.

[adambr2]

I wouldn't, Braun has none of the counting stats to ever be a hall of fame player, basically has no shot anymore. Yelich is around 15-20% to get 3,000 hits. Whether Yelich stays with the Brewers is another story but for sure the best bet to be inducted as a Brewer into the Hall of Fame.

 

Braun still has at minimum 2 1/2 more years to accumulate counting stats and he's on pace for 30 HR this year. 400 for his career is not totally out of reach. His 5 best years, 07, 08, 09, 11 and 12 are comparable to many HOFers. He's got 2 others, 10 and 16 that approach those. If he can add 3 more seasons on par with 2016 (admittedly a long shot), he's in the discussion if not for his PED suspension and his failure to come clean after failing the test.

He's 2 points shy of being a career .300 hitter and 6 points shy of a career .900 OPS. Should he stay relatively healthy and manages to bump those career numbers up to those levels, a case can be made if not for the PED issues regardless of his counting stats.

 

Braun has 1 1/2 more years left minimum, not 2 1/2.

 

Yelich has a far better chance on the sole basis that he's (assumed) to have a clean career. If he continues to maintain that status and averages 5 WAR or so for the next 6 seasons or more he is likely a HOF player.

 

If Braun had a clean past with his current numbers, finishing out strong would probably put Braun on the borderline of HOF discussion. As a player who wasn't clean, PED speculation alone has disqualified far better resumes than Braun so there's really no point in discussing his credentials further.

[coolhandluke121]

 

I think I would bet on Ryan Braun resurrecting his career over Yelich not only staying one of the best in the bigs, but resigning with us at this point.

 

Braun is at 46.8 WAR on BRef….which ~60ish usually points to HOF. If PEDs become a thing of the past among a few other mini miracles he could make it. Of course I am not that serious...but I also think Yelich in the HOF and as a Brewers is crazy ridiculous too.

 

I couldn't disagree more. Yelich started younger, won his MVP younger, posted numbers equal to our better than Braun's best numbers ever as soon as he got the privilege of playing in Miller Park, is putting up even better numbers this year, is under contract at a bargain for 3 more years, will probably have his best years in Milwaukee, plays in an era where offense is harder to come by, has no PED stain, will have 5 full years in Milwaukee unless they trade him, and is already on pace for a HOF career if he stays healthy. Braun wouldn't have half the chance Yelich does even if he didn't have a history of PEDs. Yelich could literally have more WAR in 5 years as a Brewer than Braun has in his entire career.

 

Braun's absolute best-case scenario puts him as a borderline HOF player if he somehow magically produces two near-MVP seasons after age 35 despite being 1-2 WAR player for years now. Yelich just has to stay healthy. What's more likely? If Yelich stays healthy, he could be a first-ballot HOFer easily at the rate he's going.

[PeaveyFury]

Soooooo.... Dubon?

[JohnBriggs12]

I don't get the excitement about Dubon. Until he proves he can outperform Tyler Saladino, he's at best a marginal prospect with marginal trade value as a piece of a broader package. As for utility value, unlike Perez, who's more than adequate in all 3 OF spots, Dubon has never played the OF and both Perez and Saladino have better career fielding percentages in the middle infield spots than does Dubon.

[Warning Track Power]

The best I could see for Dubon is being a Will Smith type reliever headliner.

Can we do this trade right now? Dubon for Will Smith sounds amazing.

[adambr2]

The best I could see for Dubon is being a Will Smith type reliever headliner.

Can we do this trade right now? Dubon for Will Smith sounds amazing.

 

Not necessarily by himself. It's a really weak farm system.