2019 All Star possibilities [Latest: Yelich will NOT participate in HR Derby]

[jjfanec]

It is an off day so I thought this would be an interesting discussion. As of right now what Brewers would make the All-Star game

 

Locks

Yelich. No doubt. Outside of Bellinger he is the easiest pick in the NL right now

 

Close to Lock

Davies - 2nd in ERA and 5th in wins.

Hader - There are a few relievers with better numbers but his peripheral numbers are ridiculous. Personally I would call him a lock but relievers can be a place where subpar teams get a guy. He does have the name recognition to be a lock too.

 

In the hunt

Cain. His batting has been subpar but his fielding is so good. WAR has him easily second of guys with over 100 plate appearances.

Grandal. Look at his numbers compared to other catchers. His WAR is lower than Realmuto but his OPS is second behind Contreras.

Moose. It depends if he is considered a 2b. If so he is right there with the top guys. I think Wong and McNeil are the most likely right now with Muncy and Moose right there.

Woodruff. His early season struggles put his ERA maybe too high. But he does have a lot of wins and is pitching great lately. Tied for the league lead in wins and 7th in K's.

 

Am I missing anyone?

[MrTPlush]

Christian Yelich - Lock

Josh Hader - Almost a Lock (name recognition and he is widely considered one of the best relievers)

Yasmani Grandal - Likely (He is good, catchers suck...some name recognition)

 

 

Zach Davies - If He Can Keep it Up (He only gets there if he keeps his ERA crazy low, his stats are way too boring after inevitable regression)

Lorenzo Cain - Needs a Hot Streak

 

 

Mike Moustakas - Probably Should (I just don't see it for some reason)

Brandon Woodruff - Long Shot (Started off way too rough stats wise)

 

 

Moose, Davies, and Woodruff are all interesting cases. Davies and Woodruff would obviously need to continue to light the world on fire and Moustakas may depend on being taken seriously as a 2B. He definitely is one this year, but I could see the manager not seriously considering him.

[DuWayne Steurer]

I don't think Davies is close to a lock yet. He's got a ridiculously low ERA, but his strikout numbers aren't "sexy", and there's still a lot of time for that ERA to climb back to a relatively normal level. Lots of room for fluctuation with a number like ERA still this early.

 

Yelich is a lock. Hader is probably a lock, unless he keeps giving up 9th inning/extra inning dingers. If Woodruff's ERA keeps going down and he keeps racking up K's and wins, he's going to be in consideration.

 

Extreme dark horse -- Braun.

[jjfanec]

I don't think Davies is close to a lock yet. He's got a ridiculously low ERA, but his strikout numbers aren't "sexy", and there's still a lot of time for that ERA to climb back to a relatively normal level. Lots of room for fluctuation with a number like ERA still this early.

 

Yelich is a lock. Hader is probably a lock, unless he keeps giving up 9th inning/extra inning dingers. If Woodruff's ERA keeps going down and he keeps racking up K's and wins, he's going to be in consideration.

 

Extreme dark horse -- Braun.

 

Would Davies make it if they picked today? I was more looking at it that way. I know his strikeout numbers are meh but I think he would have a very good chance.

[MrTPlush]

Alright lets regroup here:

 

Locks:

Christian Yelich

Mike Moustakas

Josh Hader

Yasmani Grandal

 

If the star keeping aligning:

Zach Davies

 

Needs one heck of a hot streak:

Lorenzo Cain

 

Davies is pretty much the only question mark at this point. Contreras and Grandal are the only catchers hitting, no one else is even in the same universe. Moustakas should definitely make it at this point. He is the best offensive 2B in the NL and after Marte the offense at 2B pretty much falls off sharply. Zach Davies just keep chugging along and if he keeps his crisp looking ERA I imagine he will make it via actually being picked or eventual injury/not eligible to pitch replacement.

 

Four guys...maybe five. Not bad.

[topper09er]

Alright lets regroup here:

 

Locks:

Christian Yelich

Mike Moustakas

Josh Hader

Yasmani Grandal

 

If the star keeping aligning:

Zach Davies

 

Needs one heck of a hot streak:

Lorenzo Cain

 

Davies is pretty much the only question mark at this point. Contreras and Grandal are the only catchers hitting, no one else is even in the same universe. Moustakas should definitely make it at this point. He is the best offensive 2B in the NL and after Marte the offense at 2B pretty much falls off sharply. Zach Davies just keep chugging along and if he keeps his crisp looking ERA I imagine he will make it via actually being picked or eventual injury/not eligible to pitch replacement.

 

Four guys...maybe five. Not bad.

 

I think Woodruff has a better shot than Cain at this point. He is top 10 in the NL in K rate, could be mid 3 ERA with 10+ wins and top 10 in Ks by the AS break, still outside chance but Cain would need to hit .500 in June to have a shot

[Eye Black]

Jonah Keri picked the All Star Game teams for The Athletic, Let the virtual brawls begin: Jonah Keri picks his early All-Star rosters.

 

The article from Keri is full of analysis of each pick and I recommend subscribing for those considering it. Below are the players in his National League squad.

 

STARTERS

 

C Yasmani Grandal, Brewers

1B Josh Bell, Pirates

2B Derek Dietrich, Reds

3B Nolan Arenado, Rockies

SS Javier Báez, Cubs

OF Cody Bellinger, Dodgers

OF Christian Yelich, Brewers

OF Joc Pederson, Dodgers

SP Max Scherzer, Nationals

 

RESERVES

 

C Willson Contreras, Cubs

1B Anthony Rizzo, Cubs

1B Pete Alonso, Mets

1B Freddie Freeman, Braves

2B Ketel Marte, Diamondbacks

2B/3B Mike Moustakas, Brewers

3B Anthony Rendon, Nationals

3B Kris Bryant, Cubs

SS Paul DeJong, Cardinals

SS Trevor Story, Rockies

OF Ronald Acuña Jr., Braves

OF Bryce Harper, Phillies

 

P Hyun-Jin Ryu, Dodgers

P Mike Soroka, Braves

P Stephen Strasburg, Nationals

P Kyle Hendricks, Cubs

P German Márquez, Rockies

P Caleb Smith, Marlins

P Luis Castillo, Reds

P Zack Greinke, Diamondbacks

P Kirby Yates, Padres

P Will Smith, Giants

P Josh Hader, Brewers

 

He referred to Padres starting pitcher Chris Paddack as his biggest snub.

[pacopete4]

Cain has no business being mentioned in the all star status. Could turn out to bring a rotten contract.

[The stache]

Yelich

Moustakas

Grandal

Hader

 

Let's be realistic. No Brewer starter is going to go, even though at least one, if not two, merit consideration.

 

Davies is 7-0, and started the day with an ERA + of over 200. His ERA now stands at 2.41. But he's only striking out 5.8 natters per 9 IP. Woodruff is 8-1 with a much higher ERA of 3.87. But Woodruff has pitched better. His 3.09 FIP is fifth best among all qualifying pitchers in the NL. Davies' was 3.92 coming into today. And Woodruff is averaging 10.9 K/9 IP.

[adambr2]

Cain has no business being mentioned in the all star status. Could turn out to bring a rotten contract.

 

He's still going to be a pretty darn good value this year even with the mediocre offense. He's on pace to be about a 4 WAR player because his defense is that good.

 

Could he end up being the worst contract on the team the last year or two of his deal, very possible. But for what he's produced in the contract so far already it would be almost impossible for it to turn out to be overall a bad contract. He would have to completely nosedive and soon.

[coolhandluke121]

I think it's going to be hard for any pitcher besides Hader to set himself apart from the other candidates enough to claim a spot. The Brewers already have 4 spots, and there's just not enough spots if every team has to have an all-star. Moustakas and Grandal are locks by default, but the competition at their positions is dramatically different.

[MrTPlush]

Yelich

Moustakas

Grandal

Hader

 

Let's be realistic. No Brewer starter is going to go, even though at least one, if not two, merit consideration.

 

Davies is 7-0, and started the day with an ERA + of over 200. His ERA now stands at 2.41. But he's only striking out 5.8 natters per 9 IP. Woodruff is 8-1 with a much higher ERA of 3.87. But Woodruff has pitched better. His 3.09 FIP is fifth best among all qualifying pitchers in the NL. Davies' was 3.92 coming into today. And Woodruff is averaging 10.9 K/9 IP.

 

I think they have a way better chance than you give them credit for. Many years there is an All Star staff of replacements after injuries and Sunday pitchers are taken out. Zach Davies could definitely make it in that way with a super low ERA. Woodruff I think would need to string together a lot of stellar starts to drop his ERA. While his supporting stats are amazing a 3.50+ ERA likely isn’t punching you a ticket with zero track record.

 

How those replacements are picked is very hard to judge because the manager gets to choose them. Some managers will chase the supporting stats (Woodruff), the low ERA (Davies), and the less stellar guy with a track record (Cain).

 

Cain could always make noise to get himself in. His defense is so widely touted and he is well liked around MLB. If he went on a tear and had more respectable numbers it isn’t crazy for him to make it.

[nodakfan17]

Moose’s stock has probably gone up since this thread started.

 

Certainly a little bit today.

[BruisedCrew]

Davies isn’t the kind of pitcher they like to use in All Star games. If he makes the team he probably wouldn’t get in or would be saved for extra innings.

 

Hader is a lock if for no reason other than they like to throw out a succession of hard throwing closers. Not to mention that he qualifies solely on merit.

 

Moose and Grandal should be no brainers.

[BrewCrewForever]

A year after we got five guys in, seems a good bet to get four or maybe five again. Pretty cool.

[AJOHNSON104]

Probably should get Yelich, Moose, Hader, and Grandal. Hard to argue against any of them, but still not clear how the new voting will affect things. Also, still a month to go and lots can change before the rosters selected, including slumps by these guys and huge hot streaks by other players.

Its realistic to think that Davies and Woodruff could be considered if they continue pitching well, but hard to see them getting in over so many other good pitchers in the league and hard to get 5 players from the same team.

[MrTPlush]

Probably should get Yelich, Moose, Hader, and Grandal. Hard to argue against any of them, but still not clear how the new voting will affect things. Also, still a month to go and lots can change before the rosters selected, including slumps by these guys and huge hot streaks by other players.

Its realistic to think that Davies and Woodruff could be considered if they continue pitching well, but hard to see them getting in over so many other good pitchers in the league and hard to get 5 players from the same team.

 

All four are locks at this point slump or not in my mind. They are just so widely dominant at their positions.

 

Offensive rankings at 2B (fangraphs):

 

1) Mike Moustakas 12.7

2) Ketal Marte 6.6

3) Ozzie Albies/Cesar Hernandez 0.8

4) Negative Value here and beyond.

 

at C:

 

1) Wilson Contreras 11.2

2) Yasmani Grandal 10.6

3) J.T. Realmuto 3.3

4) Negative value or not even qualified to be on the leaderboard.

 

There are only 5 qualified catchers due to plate appearances. Even expanding it to include anyone with 100 PAs didn't make the offensive picture any prettier. Realmuto is actually #1 overall on fangraphs, but that is due to a crazy defensive rating. Which is nice, but not going to make a great AS case.

[KeithStone53151]

I tend to agree with consensus here. Yelich, Hader, Moose, Grandal are all likely...I listed in order or likelihood to get in. Davies has a chance and Arcia might have a chance as a sub if he can boost his OPS over 800 over the next couple weeks(unlikely). I can't see anyone else having a chance at all.

 

I'll add, if Moose was primarily a 3rd baseman...he might not even make the top 5 in voting. The NL is ridiculously stacked with good 3b. At 2b though, much more thin and much easier to make it.

 

Everyone laugh at how comical it is that Almora/Heyward/Schwarber are all in the top 9 for nl allstar OF voting. I'm not sure any of them belong in the top 20. Are any of them more valuable than Ben Gamel?

[tmwiese55]

With all the negativity Harper has been getting, Machado is flying under the radar for so far resorting back to his just good/ok hitting, not his outlyer half season he had last year. Currently at a 730 OPS and .327 obp. Popped into my head when someone mentioned depth at NL 3B.

 

Yea have to view Yeli, Grandal, Moose as locks. Hader near lock and then it's just very difficult to get a 5th guy due to every team rules. Maybe Woodruff or Davies as replacements if they finish strong and guys need to pull out due to starting Sunday.

[xisxisxis]

Extreme dark horse -- Braun.

Does "Extreme dark horse" = measles strain that only infects the top 150 players? Then yes he might have a chance.

[xisxisxis]

With all the negativity Harper has been getting, Machado is flying under the radar for so far resorting back to his just good/ok hitting, not his outlyer half season he had last year. Currently at a 730 OPS and .327 obp. Popped into my head when someone mentioned depth at NL 3B.

While both are having some pretty crappy years compared to their contracts/previous years, [sarcasm]the good thing is that they are signed to 10/+ year guaranteed contracts. So they can make it up in volume...[/sarcasm]

[MrTPlush]

With all the negativity Harper has been getting, Machado is flying under the radar for so far resorting back to his just good/ok hitting, not his outlyer half season he had last year. Currently at a 730 OPS and .327 obp.

 

This really isn't true. He was pretty darn good three of the last four years. Which really is no good thing for the Padres because, in my opinion, he has been a surprise bust this year. I didn't think .950 OPS Machado was going to be a thing...but wow, sub .800? I don't think anyone expected that.

 

Teams really sell out for these young FAs....and it has not been going too good.

[long ball]

I think Yelich is going to be voted in as a starter.

 

Moustakas has a solid chance to be voted in as a starter as well even though Atlanta fans have been voting heavily so far. Moustakas should get in as a reserve if he's not voted in as a starter.

 

Grandal will hopefully get into the top three to move on, but I don't see him beating out Willson Contreras for the starting role. Even if he isn't voted in as a starter, I'd be shocked if he isn't selected as a reserve.

 

Hader will probably be selected.

 

I don't really think Davies or Woodruff will get in. I think Davies, as of today, is the more likely selection.

[rickh150]

Yelich is a starter, and I can see four more Brewers in.

 

I miss the World Series home field attachment that the All Star Game brought. Without it, it is more like Pre-season football, Spring training baseball, and the NBA regular season. Very little meaning or importance attached to winning the game. Before it, I remember more and more guys leaving the dugout early to go home. Expect the same.

[MrTPlush]

Yelich is a starter, and I can see four more Brewers in.

 

I miss the World Series home field attachment that the All Star Game brought. Without it, it is more like Pre-season football, Spring training baseball, and the NBA regular season. Very little meaning or importance attached to winning the game. Before it, I remember more and more guys leaving the dugout early to go home. Expect the same.

 

It wasn't very good even when the World Series home field was attached. I agree that it was a nice thought in theory, but there was no way to have everyone take it seriously and have everyone available. It was a fluky weird way to decide home field advantage.