Can Yelich hit 50 home runs this season?

[TURBO]

I think he can!

 

Discuss...

[TigerUppercut]

The way he's gotten out of the gates, I think it would be a mild disappointment if he didn't. Also, I think he may need to get there for the Crew to have a shot at the division.

[owbc]

He's a contender in all three triple crown categories so that will be something to watch as well. Although Cody Bellinger is still batting over .400 (!!!) so he'll have to come back down to earth at some point for Yelich to have a chance.

[rickh150]

He can. Yet, he probably is not the MVP yet, sitting at runner up at the moment.

[pacopete4]

My money is on Braun.

[MrTPlush]

It’s going to be real hard for him to not do it. Two more in May and he would only need to average 7 a month after that (well 7,7,7,8 is essentially what he would need)

 

If he doesn’t he will get darn close unless he reverts back to pre breakout power.

[BruisedCrew]

I don’t really care about 50 home runs. I just hope Yelich doesn’t mess himself up trying to hit home runs at the expense of hitting the ball to all fields.

[MrTPlush]

I don’t really care about 50 home runs. I just hope Yelich doesn’t mess himself up trying to hit home runs at the expense of hitting the ball to all fields.

 

Well seeing as he hit the homer today opposite field and is hitting better than last year I think he will be fine. I don’t care where he hits it, I just want results.

[jjfanec]

I don’t really care about 50 home runs. I just hope Yelich doesn’t mess himself up trying to hit home runs at the expense of hitting the ball to all fields.

 

Well seeing as he hit the homer today opposite field and is hitting better than last year I think he will be fine. I don’t care where he hits it, I just want results.

 

Yeah yelich doesn't seem like the guy who will screw up his swing to hit home runs.

[torts]

Yes

[BruisedCrew]

I would be interested in seeing Yelich’s spray chart. It seems to me that he isn’t getting as many hits to left and left center as he did last year.

[dlk9s]

I don’t really care about 50 home runs. I just hope Yelich doesn’t mess himself up trying to hit home runs at the expense of hitting the ball to all fields.

 

lolwat

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Wow, some of you guys are too much. Yelich is batting .325, has a .440 OBP (!!!), has 19 HRs by May 19(!), and is OPSing an other-worldly 1.172, and you are finding holes? Sheesh.

[jjfanec]

I would be interested in seeing Yelich’s spray chart. It seems to me that he isn’t getting as many hits to left and left center as he did last year.

 

Does that really matter? His numbers are off the charts and that is with a very sustainable BABIP. The best thing about Yelich's start is it really seems like he could sustain it for much of the year. I am not sure what the spray chart would say but he definitely hasn't become a dead pull hitter.

[Fear The Chorizo]

I think the bigger question is could Yelich hit 50 HR at Miller Park alone this season - the one thing I'll be interested in tracking as the year progresses and sample size expands is the disparity between Yelich's home and road splits. I'm guessing they'll normalize a bit from each direction...although having him maintain a ~1.700 OPS and 1.141 SLG at home obviously would be a good thing!

[pacopete4]

I would be interested in seeing Yelich’s spray chart. It seems to me that he isn’t getting as many hits to left and left center as he did last year.

 

[sarcasm]The other team should probably put their left fielder in the second deck of right field.[/sarcasm]

 

Btw, 8 of his 19 have come to left-center to center field. 5 of 7 doubles to the left side as well.

[long ball]

I would be interested in seeing Yelich’s spray chart. It seems to me that he isn’t getting as many hits to left and left center as he did last year.

 

Most of his ground balls are to the pull side, but his balls in the air are well distributed including ~half his homers up the middle or opposite field.

 

Source: https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/christian-yelich-592885?stats=career-r-visuals-mlb

[wntrtxn21]

I would be interested in seeing Yelich’s spray chart. It seems to me that he isn’t getting as many hits to left and left center as he did last year.

 

Most of his ground balls are to the pull side, but his balls in the air are well distributed including ~half his homers up the middle or opposite field.

 

Source: https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/christian-yelich-592885?stats=career-r-visuals-mlb

 

Thanks for finding and posting the charts. Answers the above questions.

[MrTPlush]

Yelich has progressively pulled it more on the ground the last few years when hitting grounders. The notable thing this year is the LD% is way down, but his FB% is way up compared to 2018. So yah, if that stays true then I would expect him to get past 50 homers. Also while a notable regression in LD% may sound bad his hard hit contact is still up so obviously he is hitting his fly balls pretty darn hard.

 

Pretty small sample size to really get into advanced stats though. Kind of fluky at this stage in the year.

[BruisedCrew]

Thanks for the charts.

 

Comparing 2019 to 2018 they do seem to confirm my impression that a lower percentage of his hits so far this year have been to left and left center, but probably not in a dramatic way.

 

One other thought on this is that teams may be pitching him inside more than they did early last season. The Dodgers really did that in the NLCS with their never ending string of lefties. Throw him hard stuff inside and don’t worry if you walk him. The RHP throw him low inside breaking balls that are impossible to hit to left field. Those produce a lot of the ground balls to the right side, but if they aren’t low enough or inside enough they are ending up in the seats.

[JohnBriggs12]

I don't think he'll be pitched to enough to get to 50. He's intentionally walked and pitched around at least once or twice a game. But he'll get close, likely 45-47. Much more likely is that he walks at least 100 times.

[KeithStone53151]

He definitely COULD get to 50, heck he's on pace for over 60 I believe. If I had to bet over/under on 50...I'd bet pretty heavily on the under. If that line was 45 instead of 50...I'd have to think about it but would probably take the over.

[MrTPlush]

He definitely COULD get to 50, heck he's on pace for over 60 I believe. If I had to bet over/under on 50...I'd bet pretty heavily on the under. If that line was 45 instead of 50...I'd have to think about it but would probably take the over.

 

70...he is on pace for 70.

[jerichoholicninja]

I would be interested in seeing Yelich’s spray chart. It seems to me that he isn’t getting as many hits to left and left center as he did last year.

 

Most of his ground balls are to the pull side, but his balls in the air are well distributed including ~half his homers up the middle or opposite field.

 

Source: https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/christian-yelich-592885?stats=career-r-visuals-mlb

 

Seems to me he doesn't really turn on and drive inside pitches very often. His swing seems to be very much up the middle or the other way. Which is certainly odd for a guy who's hitting so many homeruns.

[KeithStone53151]

He definitely COULD get to 50, heck he's on pace for over 60 I believe. If I had to bet over/under on 50...I'd bet pretty heavily on the under. If that line was 45 instead of 50...I'd have to think about it but would probably take the over.

 

70...he is on pace for 70.

 

Danggggggggg. I'll take your word for it. I'm still going to stick with my response in general...but crazy that he's on pace for 70.