RISP question

[markedman5]

For those of you who have done the research here is my question.

 

Over the long haul will a team(or player) that is hitting significantly below average with RISP usually begin to see that number rise toward the average or are the two completely unrelated?

 

I mean it is apsolutely amazing how little we do with our baserunners ......tonight its so bad its almost a joke.

 

I'm hoping we are just kind of unlucky but i'm starting to think its not going to even out this year.

 

You would think we could score a few runs just by accident.......http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/frown.gif

[sbrylski]

A batters BA with RISP should rise, yes. But just because he hit poorly last time doesn't make it more likely he'll get a hit next time.

 

Say .300 is average, and .200 is what the Brewers are currently hitting. You can't expect them to raise their BA w/RISP up to .300, though its possible. The most likely thing to happen is the team hits .300 w/RISP for the rest of the season, raising it to aorund .250. So just because they are batting .200 right now, doesn't mean they'll bat .400 the rest of the way.

 

Does that make sense?

[markedman5]

or I suppose they could close the gap by hitting .200 in all at bats the rest of the season bringing the team average down to .250.......http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/frown.gif

 

Watching this team play is like going to the dentist right now.

[sbrylski]

Watching this team play is like going to the dentist right now.

 

You smile more?

[rluzinski]

Brewers, 2006:

 [b] AB BA OBP SLG OPS[/b] Overall 2358 .265 .328 .445 .773 RISP 576 .240 .323 .391 .714

There is a lot of uncertainty associated with a sample size of 576 AB at the team level. I don't think it would be fair to assume that the Brewers will continue to under perform with runners in scoring position, at least to that degree. Whether they are changing their approach with RISP, I don't know. I hope they aren't being coached to but with Yost's fascination with Estrada's BA, it wouldn't surprise me.

 

Furthermore, I think fans typically have unrealistic expectations in run scoring situations. For instance, I'll see the Brewers string together a single and walk with 2 out, only to see the next batter make the final out in the inning. Far and away, the most common expected result is 2 LOB (about a 67% chance with an average batter up), yet some seem overly disappointed when it occurs. I know it's a cumulative effect from past failures but it tends to inflate the perceived problem.

 

According to BP, the Brewers have scored 12 less run than their raw stats indicate they should have so far. While not insignificant, I think that's a lot smaller than many fans assume.