Moving Eric Thames

[clancyphile]

With Hiura forcing his way up, it's now time for the Crew to put Eric Thames on the trading block.

 

Which team might be a good match for the Crew, and what sort of return might they get?

 

I'm thinking Cleveland makes for a good match, they have holes at DH and the corner outfield spots:

 

Indians get:

OF/1B/DH Eric Thames

C Max McDowell

 

Brewers get:

3B Nolan Jones

RHP Nick Gallagher

LHP Jake Miednick

[monkeyman343434]

There is zero chance Thames nets Nolan Jones as a return.

[And That]

There is zero chance Thames nets Nolan Jones as a return.

Yep, nope.

 

No idea who those other two players are, but Nolan Jones is a 55 OFP prospect, meaning he has about $42 million in excess value.

 

The most realistic optimistic case I can make for Thames would that he'd be worth 4 WAR between now and then end of 2020, assuming his option is picked up. That would give him about $28 million of excess value, still far short of Jones. I think, however, there are a)very few people in baseball who would assume Thames is worth that much and b)if he was, you keep him anyway.

 

More likely, Thames would be valued at 1 WAR for the remainder of 2019 only, which gives him under $5 million of excess value. The Brewers would have to "kick in" something along the lines of Aaron Ashby, Trey Supak, and Jake Gatewood (at least) to make it work.

 

If you take out McDowell and Jones from the trade proposal, that might work.

[tmwiese55]

Might have missed their opportunity with NYY trading for Morales yesterday.

[clancyphile]

There is zero chance Thames nets Nolan Jones as a return.

Yep, nope.

 

No idea who those other two players are, but Nolan Jones is a 55 OFP prospect, meaning he has about $42 million in excess value.

 

The most realistic optimistic case I can make for Thames would that he'd be worth 4 WAR between now and then end of 2020, assuming his option is picked up. That would give him about $28 million of excess value, still far short of Jones. I think, however, there are a)very few people in baseball who would assume Thames is worth that much and b)if he was, you keep him anyway.

 

More likely, Thames would be valued at 1 WAR for the remainder of 2019 only, which gives him under $5 million of excess value. The Brewers would have to "kick in" something along the lines of Aaron Ashby, Trey Supak, and Jake Gatewood (at least) to make it work.

 

If you take out McDowell and Jones from the trade proposal, that might work.

 

Thames for Gallagher and Miednick would be a return I could live with... I think there is a much better chance of seeing both emerge as major league contributors. A lower-ceiling, higher-floor version of the Lind-for-Peralta trade.

[MadThinker88]

I don't see a match with Cleveland, even for a PTBNL..

 

Cleveland is LHB heavy so Thames does not help with that.

It already has 1B covered for this and multiple future years by Carlos Santana and Jake Bauers (along with prospect Bobby Bradley). Heck, the afore mentioned Nolan Jones might get shifted over to 1B if his D at third continues to be shaky/ problematic.

 

As for the OF situation, Cleveland is using the idea of D & speed 1st, Offense after. They are finally giving time to younger players (Luplow/ Mercado, with the group of Allen/ Zimmer & Daniel Johnson on the horizon). Even Jake Bauers has been surprisingly good in LF when not at 1B/ DH.

 

Additionally Cleveland has limited funds so I doubt they would spend any of it on Thames (even with his reasonable contract). There are even whispers of the club selling off more pieces (for a quick retool).

 

Its a nice thought on the surface but digging into it, this trade possibility is not a match.

[coolhandluke121]

Shaw can't even hit like a good pitcher right now, Aguilar is a RHB below .650, and you want them to be the 1B's instead of Thames? That doesn't make any sense at all.

 

Let Shaw play in AAA all summer unless he turns it around. They did it with Santana and they can do it with him. The team comes first.

[Outlander]

Maybe the Twins would be a match as we get closer to the deadline and extended rosters since they are relying on Cron to play 1B and he is righty. Of course if Thames is still producing at that point and the Brewers are in it I don't know if there is enough to gain by trading him.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I think any idea of moving Thames is predicated on the idea that Shaw finds his swing quickly when he goes on a rehab assignment, and can come up to provide at least a serviceable LHH option in a platoon with Aguilar at 1B/occasional 2B/3B/LF bat. Given Shaw's age, production and years of control remaining, he needs to continue to be looked at as part of the present and future.

 

A lot of assumptions here, though. If Shaw doesn't go down to AAA and hit well, there is no way I trade off Thames.

[Lathund]

Having two 1B only players without options hasn't been an ideal situation over the last two years (Well, before September that it, at that point it's an advantage), so having one of your 1B options be a more versatile player is a very good thing. And while I certainly think Shaw is better than he has been so far and will rebound (To what degree remains to be seen) I also wouldn't want to bet too much on it right now.

 

I think it's still too early in the season to lose players permanently, especially when there is not much of a return. Shaw and Hiura can be optioned, and the team could go with a 12-man pitching staff when/if the schedule and pitching performance allows it. All three things more likely than trading Thames at this point.

[Roderick]

Thames My best estimate would be someone would take him off our hands for straight salary dump. No prospects, not even a bag of used balls. If we paid salary and sent him out then we can get whatever level of prospect you are essentially paying for.

 

You have to wonder if he will fade and his defense is going to subtract from his bat.

[KeithStone53151]

I think we can get a little something for Thames if we look to trade him. One of those 25 year old AA mashers or something to help the system depth a bit. Maybe an 18 year old project type. Nolan Jones has more value than Turang, no chance would Thames even net Turang. I think the Yankees are probably the best fit. They are so RH, and their 1b situation is nothing to write home about...he could soft platoon with Voit and DH a bit until Judge/Stanton are back. All that said, he's a modest upgrade at best and primary value comes from being LH to complement all their RH hitters.

 

I really don't see another match. Maybe the Angels if Pujols gets hurt and/or they start to climb into contention. Maybe Colorado if they climb back in and Murphy continues to struggle to hit. Outside chance the White Sox like his option and look at him as a solid player at 1b when Abreu leaves and someone that can maybe help with a surprise contention. The White Sox especially are an incredible reach. It's really Yankees or bust...and best case you're getting a 45 OFP prospect and salary relief.

[KeithStone53151]

I still think Aguilar is a good fit for the Indians, there's also familiarity there. So a corner IF trade with the Indians would probably be Aguilar, not Thames. Not sure why they'd trade for a 1b that isn't hitting though.

[SRB]

Why exactly would we trade Thames when Aguilar and Shaw have both been atrocious?

[JosephC]

The absolute best the Brewers would get for Thames is a couple fringe prospects. I wouldn't be interested in trading a .241/.385/.458/.842 bat for a couple long-shots. Both the OBP and OPS currently rank 2nd on the team among players that have enough at-bats to "count." Aguilar's performance could head south again. Moustakas could get hurt. Lots of things could happen. Why be so anxious to dump a guy who has done a nice job with the bat so far?

[Brew crew 92]

The absolute best the Brewers would get for Thames is a couple fringe prospects. I wouldn't be interested in trading a .241/.385/.458/.842 bat for a couple long-shots. Both the OBP and OPS currently rank 2nd on the team among players that have enough at-bats to "count." Aguilar's performance could head south again. Moustakas could get hurt. Lots of things could happen. Why be so anxious to dump a guy who has done a nice job with the bat so far?

 

Agree, I’m sure Stearns does too, the way Shaw has slumped all year, Thames isn’t going anywhere, unless Stearns trades for a first baseman at the deadline.

[Roderick]

The absolute best the Brewers would get for Thames is a couple fringe prospects. I wouldn't be interested in trading a .241/.385/.458/.842 bat for a couple long-shots. Both the OBP and OPS currently rank 2nd on the team among players that have enough at-bats to "count." Aguilar's performance could head south again. Moustakas could get hurt. Lots of things could happen. Why be so anxious to dump a guy who has done a nice job with the bat so far?

 

Agree, I’m sure Stearns does too, the way Shaw has slumped all year, Thames isn’t going anywhere, unless Stearns trades for a first baseman at the deadline.

 

Yeah, I wasn't saying I want to trade Thames, but if we do, I don't think we get anything for him unlike what some people are saying.

 

As long as he is taking walks like crazy, leads team (even better than Yelich), he is fine with me.

[mlloyd10]

Why exactly would we trade Thames when Aguilar and Shaw have both been atrocious?

 

Aguilar hasn't been atrocious - He's batting .319 over the last three weeks

[wallus]

I'm thinking it is more likely Cleveland is sellers versus buyers.

[JohnBriggs12]

If they could somehow land a serviceable LH reliever for Thames, I'd do a deal today. Claudio's been plain awful and Counsell continues to trust him in high leverage situations more than trusting a starter go another inning.

[JohnBriggs12]

Why exactly would we trade Thames when Aguilar and Shaw have both been atrocious?

 

Aguilar hasn't been atrocious - He's batting .319 over the last three weeks

 

Yeah, he's been better, but just 3 HR (all in one series and none since??)

[TURBO]

Nobody is going to want Thames. Moving him for anything other than a salary dump is a pipe dream.

[wntrtxn21]

Nobody is going to want Thames. Moving him for anything other than a salary dump is a pipe dream.

 

Thames does have a .393 OBP, but he is whiffing at a 45% rate. I don't see him bringing anything more than a low level prospect.

[adambr2]

Nobody is going to want Thames. Moving him for anything other than a salary dump is a pipe dream.

 

Thames does have a .393 OBP, but he is whiffing at a 45% rate. I don't see him bringing anything more than a low level prospect.

 

39 K's / 112 PA's, 34.8% K rate.

[Brew crew 92]

I believe Stearns needs to get another first baseman by trade. Neither Aguilar or Thames is the answere.