Keston Hiura called up, Shaw optioned

[Brew crew 92]

Freitas will be 31 next year. How many career minor league catchers in their 30's suddenly do better in the big leagues?

 

Pina

 

How good is Freitas defensively? I wouldn't really mind if they gave him a chance next year by making him the back-up and letting Pina walk (or sign Pina to a MiLB deal). Don't think I would gamble on Freitas starting though...or even a Pina/Freitas combo as that could be a disaster offensively.

 

If he has good defense he could certainly start out backing up and either earn a starting gig by performance or inevitable injury.

 

I assumed when Stearns traded for him he was good defensively, not sure why I assumed that, but, I’ve read a couple posters say he’s average at best, but would like Toby’s opinion on not just his defense, but also his hitting abilities, since I seem to be a minority of one with regards to his having found “it” at the age of 30.

[NYChez]

NL player of the week! When’s the last time a Brewer rookie did that?

 

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

NL player of the week! When’s the last time a Brewer rookie did that?

 

 

The answer to that is never. It has never happened before. Pretty dang cool!

[pacopete4]

NL player of the week! When’s the last time a Brewer rookie did that?

 

 

The answer to that is never. It has never happened before. Pretty dang cool!

 

Shockingly, Braun never got the weekly away but won NL Player of the Month in July of his rookie season.

 

“Braun was voted the National League (NL) Rookie of the Month for June, ranking first in RBIs (21) and tied for first in home runs (6) among NL rookies that month. He also recorded a .716 slugging percentage and a .435 OBP.”

[patrickgpe]

I did look up to see if Listach, Braun or Scotty PO got one, which they didn't.

[sveumrules]

Here's a sampling of how a few of the better hitting 29-31 year olds at AAA have done in their MLB looks...

 

David Freitas AAA 2019 361/446/517 (141 wRC+)

David Freitas MLB career 214/270/313 (62 wRC+) 127 PAs

 

Corban Joseph AAA 2019 375/430/595 (150 wRC+)

Corban Joseph MLB career 208/269/292 (54 wRC+) 26 PAs

 

Jarrett Parker AAA 2019 292/420/694 (144 wRC+)

Jarrett Parker MLB career 249/330/441 (107 wRC+) 397 PAs

 

Ryan Goins AAA 2019 322/406/531 (139 wRC+)

Ryan Goins MLB career 229/276/336 (64 wRC+) 1,528 PAs

 

Yadiel Hernandez AAA 2019 330/404/581 (135 wRC+)

Yadiel Hernandez MLB career 000/000/000 (0 wRC+) 0 PAs

 

Jace Peterson AAA 2019 313/397/514 (132 wRC+)

Jace Peterson MLB career 228/318/330 (77 wRC+) 1,524 PAs

 

As much as I'd love it if Freitas did indeed figure it all out, odds are he is just another old guy having a big year in AAA with the juiced MLB ball.

[Brew crew 92]

Here's a sampling of how a few of the better hitting 29-31 year olds at AAA have done in their MLB looks...

 

David Freitas AAA 2019 361/446/517 (141 wRC+)

David Freitas MLB career 214/270/313 (62 wRC+) 127 PAs

 

Corban Joseph AAA 2019 375/430/595 (150 wRC+)

Corban Joseph MLB career 208/269/292 (54 wRC+) 26 PAs

 

Jarrett Parker AAA 2019 292/420/694 (144 wRC+)

Jarrett Parker MLB career 249/330/441 (107 wRC+) 397 PAs

 

Ryan Goins AAA 2019 322/406/531 (139 wRC+)

Ryan Goins MLB career 229/276/336 (64 wRC+) 1,528 PAs

 

Yadiel Hernandez AAA 2019 330/404/581 (135 wRC+)

Yadiel Hernandez MLB career 000/000/000 (0 wRC+) 0 PAs

 

Jace Peterson AAA 2019 313/397/514 (132 wRC+)

Jace Peterson MLB career 228/318/330 (77 wRC+) 1,524 PAs

 

As much as I'd love it if Freitas did indeed figure it all out, odds are he is just another old guy having a big year in AAA with the juiced MLB ball.

 

.349 .428 last year WITHOUT the juiced ball in AAA. 127 PA doesn’t really scream mlb failure, at least to me it doesn’t. Freitas also doesn’t hit for power so his numbers this year less inflated by the juiced ball. I’m not a pro scout, but in my 55+ years of watching baseball, I can see a good plate approach hitter when I see one, and I’ve seen him hit and he’s a good hitter. Give him 500 PA’s and he’ll hit mlb pitching better than manny Pina.

 

I must say, I don’t know how you get the info you do, but it’s really amazing to me, the amount of information your able to dig up somehow, and it’s appreciated I’m sure by all, even if not said so publicly.

[pacopete4]

I’m not a pro scout, but in my 55+ years of watching baseball, I can see a good plate approach hitter when I see one, and I’ve seen him hit and he’s a good hitter. Give him 500 PA’s and he’ll hit mlb pitching better than manny Pina.

 

Where have you seen him play?

[Brew crew 92]

I’m not a pro scout, but in my 55+ years of watching baseball, I can see a good plate approach hitter when I see one, and I’ve seen him hit and he’s a good hitter. Give him 500 PA’s and he’ll hit mlb pitching better than manny Pina.

 

Where have you seen him play?

 

Saw him twice in person in Omaha back in June, and watched him in the AAA all star game. 4 hits and a couple walks in those three games, so kinda slumped.

[Lathund]

As much as I'd love it if Freitas did indeed figure it all out, odds are he is just another old guy having a big year in AAA with the juiced MLB ball.

 

I have no idea whether it'll translate to MLB, but with Freitas it's worth noting that he did the same thing (better, in league-adjusted numbers, in fact) in 2018 without the juiced balls. And that his offensive numbers aren't a result of a HR surge fueled by the juiced baseballs. Breakout hitters who are mostly the same except with better HR numbers are the ones I'd be really wary of. Improvements that see things like BB/K numbers improve I would put a bit more stock in. That being said, it would still take injuries (To Grandal or Piña, or to two of Thames/Aguilar/Shaw/Moustakas) for him to be up here, as releasing Piña at this point would be a dumb move. That Seattle were willing to let him to despite his 2018 numbers is something to consider though.

 

I just don't like the type of reasoning (Not specifically related to the quoted post, but something that comes up a lot) that "He's a career minor leaguer, therefore will never amount to anything". Everyone is a career minor leaguer until he makes it in the majors or retires. After a certain age a breakthrough is less likely; a genuine improvement in skills starts to get offset by aging, but they do happen. Perhaps more so among catchers, who have so many things to focus on, and who get fewer plate appearances too. Our own Manuel Pineapple isn't a too dissimilar; he had close to 3100 minor league PAs when he got his chance with the Brewers, Freitas is at 3114. Development isn't linear, players don't all age the same way either. Chronological age is just a proxy for biological age that is helpful on a population level but not really individually.

 

Maybe Freitas won't ever amount to anything in the majors, but make that evaluation based on him and his play, and not just on age and 123 MLB PAs. Even in the more optimistic scenarios though, he's not going to be the magic bullet that "fixes" this season. He gets a chance to audition in September and/or if injuries hit (Or if the team trades the impending FAs), and he'll be among the options for the catcher spots on the 2020 roster. With a healthy Grandal on the roster, no other catcher will really get to make a significant impact.

[willie key]

I did look up to see if Listach, Braun or Scotty PO got one, which they didn't.

 

 

Holy pat listach reference

[Pugger]

How serious is Hiura's quad injury?

[AdvantageSchneider]

A nice little article on Fangraphs about (spoiler alert) Hiura. Not sure we technically are in a pennant chase given the performance of the team of late and Woodruff's injury, but I guess I'll take it.

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-most-important-rookie-hitter-in-the-pennant-chase/

[pitchleague]

That was a really good article!

[HiAndTight]

NL player of the week! When’s the last time a Brewer rookie did that?

 

 

The answer to that is never. It has never happened before. Pretty dang cool!

 

 

I'm shocked that Braun didn't.

 

This is pretty cool. I really thought Hiura would hit right out of the gate, but nobody could have expected this(unless you love 30-year-old AAA catchers and bring them up CONSTANTLY despite having one of the better offensive catchers in the game).

[HiAndTight]

I don't trust any of those huge offensive numbers these AAAA guys are putting up in San Antonio. I mean, it's good to see Shaw hitting better, but its hard to trust those considering most of their other previously junk MLB hitters are tearing the cover off the ball down there.

 

AAA#’s

 

Salad > .288 .375

Spang > .317 .385

 

Freitas > .361 .442

Grisham > .353 .426

 

Didn’t show home runs and ops because of the juiced ball.

 

Huge difference statistically between the 2 sets of players. Grisham and Freitas also don’t K and walk a lot.

 

Freitas had about as many ab’s last year in his mlb trial with Seattle when he hit .221 as Pina has this year hitting under .200. And this is Freitas’s second AAA year in a row raking. He’s obviously found his hitting stroke, aka Max Muncy, and I’m assuming will be our starting catcher next year. Good job unearthing this guy by our GM.

 

 

You didn't really just compare him to Max Muncy, did you? The guy's been in AAA since 2013(not figuratively, literally). Pretty sure he's not Max Muncy. I mean, I'm not positive, but man. You seem like an absolute gluten for punishment. Just go like...over the the top ALL-IN on this random guy we got for a bag of balls(despite the fact that he raked in AAA last year) and you throw out Max Muncy who put 4.2 WAR so far this year(and last year) along with a line of.263/.391/.589 with a .973 OPS?

 

 

God help us if they don't bring him up this year and soon, because I've already seen his name SOOOOO many times

 

 

Freitas had about as many ab’s last year in his mlb trial with Seattle when he hit .221 as Pina has this year hitting under .200.

 

I've searched for a reason as to why this would be relevant. You're trying to compare him to Pina, but in doing so your neglect to mention that Pina is an exceptional defensive catcher and you use Pina's worse offensive season(When he's got extremely sporadic playing time? Why not just compare both of their first years in the big leagues?

 

Answer? Because Pina's actually been a pretty solid offensive catcher .264/.320/.409 while playing great D and from 2016-2018...and then your comparison doesn't look quite as good.

[HiAndTight]

As much as I'd love it if Freitas did indeed figure it all out, odds are he is just another old guy having a big year in AAA with the juiced MLB ball.

 

I have no idea whether it'll translate to MLB, but with Freitas it's worth noting that he did the same thing (better, in league-adjusted numbers, in fact) in 2018 without the juiced balls. And that his offensive numbers aren't a result of a HR surge fueled by the juiced baseballs. Breakout hitters who are mostly the same except with better HR numbers are the ones I'd be really wary of. Improvements that see things like BB/K numbers improve I would put a bit more stock in. That being said, it would still take injuries (To Grandal or Piña, or to two of Thames/Aguilar/Shaw/Moustakas) for him to be up here, as releasing Piña at this point would be a dumb move. That Seattle were willing to let him to despite his 2018 numbers is something to consider though.

 

I just don't like the type of reasoning (Not specifically related to the quoted post, but something that comes up a lot) that "He's a career minor leaguer, therefore will never amount to anything". Everyone is a career minor leaguer until he makes it in the majors or retires. After a certain age a breakthrough is less likely; a genuine improvement in skills starts to get offset by aging, but they do happen. Perhaps more so among catchers, who have so many things to focus on, and who get fewer plate appearances too. Our own Manuel Pineapple isn't a too dissimilar; he had close to 3100 minor league PAs when he got his chance with the Brewers, Freitas is at 3114. Development isn't linear, players don't all age the same way either. Chronological age is just a proxy for biological age that is helpful on a population level but not really individually.

 

Maybe Freitas won't ever amount to anything in the majors, but make that evaluation based on him and his play, and not just on age and 123 MLB PAs. Even in the more optimistic scenarios though, he's not going to be the magic bullet that "fixes" this season. He gets a chance to audition in September and/or if injuries hit (Or if the team trades the impending FAs), and he'll be among the options for the catcher spots on the 2020 roster. With a healthy Grandal on the roster, no other catcher will really get to make a significant impact.

 

 

 

Hopefully, he's figured it out. Hopefully, he thrives for us at some point. I doubt it, but maybe. I'm happy either way(happier if the Brewers do better). But the constant deluge of Freitas love from watching him play in 3 games and him putting up a nice box score is what gets a touch old.

 

It really is one absolute obsession and then right on to the next.

[Eye Black]

Keston Hiura has the 4th highest WAR among all position players on the roster (behind only Yelich, Moustakas, Grandal) despite playing in less than 40% of the teams games so far this season (40 of 104).

 

As noted on MLB Network he is also now 2nd All-Time on the Brewers leaderboard of most home runs through the first 40 games in player’s debut:

 

Ryan Braun — 11 HR

Keston Hiura — 10 HR

Khris Davis — 8 HR

Gary Sheffield — 7 HR

[Fear The Chorizo]

Keston Hiura has the 4th highest WAR among all position players on the roster (behind only Yelich, Moustakas, Grandal) despite playing in less than 40% of the teams games so far this season (40 of 104).

 

As noted on MLB Network he is also now 2nd All-Time on the Brewers leaderboard of most home runs through the first 40 games in player’s debut:

 

Ryan Braun — 11 HR

Keston Hiura — 10 HR

Khris Davis — 8 HR

Gary Sheffield — 7 HR

 

There are also only 5 players currently across MLB with a higher OPS and at least the same number of at bats as Hiura - Yelich, Bellinger, Trout, Garver, and Rendon. While his K rate has dropped a bit, he still has 1-2 games/week where he'll strike out multiple times...that's the only reason I'd expect his BA to deflate a bit, because when he puts the ball in play he makes plenty of loud contact.

 

Defensively Hiura's nowhere near GG caliber, but he's serviceable - especially for the pop he has in his bat. A righthanded hitting 2B that comes to mind as a comp for where I think Hiura is headed as a player would be prime Jeff Kent. There's differences in K rate and other offensive stats, but admittedly Hiura's MLB sample size is much too small to just line up statlines. Kent was a guy who played well enough defensively at 2B to win an MVP and live at the AS game because of his bat through the best years of his career, and I recall him having a similar approach in hitting to all fields.

[MrTPlush]

While his K rate has dropped a bit, he still has 1-2 games/week where he'll strike out multiple times...that's the only reason I'd expect his BA to deflate a bit, because when he puts the ball in play he makes plenty of loud contact.

 

He has a BABIP of .438. I don't really care how much loud contact you make...that is waaay inflated. Add in his K% north of 30% and his .327 average is a huge mirage. It isn't like his K% has dropped much either, still nearly 30% the last month. Last two weeks...just as bad.

 

Enjoy it while it lasts because Hiura is probably going to have a hard fall back down to earth eventually. Great player, great future, and great start to his career...but his numbers right now have a whole lot of luck inducing them.

[Fear The Chorizo]

While his K rate has dropped a bit, he still has 1-2 games/week where he'll strike out multiple times...that's the only reason I'd expect his BA to deflate a bit, because when he puts the ball in play he makes plenty of loud contact.

 

He has a BABIP of .438. I don't really care how much loud contact you make...that is waaay inflated. Add in his K% north of 30% and his .327 average is a huge mirage. It isn't like his K% has dropped much either, still nearly 30% the last month. Last two weeks...just as bad.

 

Enjoy it while it lasts because Hiura is probably going to have a hard fall back down to earth eventually. Great player, great future, and great start to his career...but his numbers right now have a whole lot of luck inducing them.

 

There is really nothing at all in Hiura's numbers that has to do with luck based on actual outcomes over a small sample size - no doubt the BABIP will drop at some point, but if that drop happens along with seeing even a slight drop in K rate and increased BB rate, his OPS won't be that impacted. I can think of only a couple base hits Hiura has had resulting from weak contact, and quite a few more loud outs or hard hit grounders right at fielders. The BABIP will drop and normalize after more ABs, as will the batting average - but I fully expect an established Hiura to be a consistent 0.900 OPS player, which I guess would be a hard fall back down considering his MLB production to date is that of a 1.000 OPS player.

[MrTPlush]

While his K rate has dropped a bit, he still has 1-2 games/week where he'll strike out multiple times...that's the only reason I'd expect his BA to deflate a bit, because when he puts the ball in play he makes plenty of loud contact.

 

He has a BABIP of .438. I don't really care how much loud contact you make...that is waaay inflated. Add in his K% north of 30% and his .327 average is a huge mirage. It isn't like his K% has dropped much either, still nearly 30% the last month. Last two weeks...just as bad.

 

Enjoy it while it lasts because Hiura is probably going to have a hard fall back down to earth eventually. Great player, great future, and great start to his career...but his numbers right now have a whole lot of luck inducing them.

 

There is really nothing at all in Hiura's numbers that has to do with luck based on actual outcomes over a small sample size - no doubt the BABIP will drop at some point, but if that drop happens along with seeing even a slight drop in K rate and increased BB rate, his OPS won't be that impacted. I can think of only a couple base hits Hiura has had resulting from weak contact, and quite a few more loud outs or hard hit grounders right at fielders. The BABIP will drop and normalize after more ABs, as will the batting average - but I fully expect an established Hiura to be a consistent 0.900 OPS player, which I guess would be a hard fall back down considering his MLB production to date is that of a 1.000 OPS player.

 

The small sample allows him to hold a higher BABIP to some extent. But it is luck. He is lucky more of his hits aren't getting caught. His hard hit % is similar to Yelich's. Yelich has a BABIP almost .100 points lower. This also despite striking out 33% less than Hiura and being faster than Hiura. All this and their BA is almost identical?

 

It isn't a knock on Hiura, I think he has been amazing so far and will be for a long time. That being said his batting average probably shouldn't even be sniffing .300. It is hard to say where his BABIP will tend to float around, but he isn't that fast so .375ish is probably a lofty expectation. He probably will end up around .340 or so on average.

 

Long term, yes, I think he can have a .900 OPS consistently. However, I would imagine some kind of growing pain reality check eventually and then he works his way back up.

[homer]

Weird thing about Hiura re: his BABIP is he hits more balls in the air than on the ground.