Eastern Conference Finals: Milwaukee Bucks vs Toronto Raptors

[OldSchoolSnapper]

The cruelest way this could end would be to somehow pull off Game 6 and come back home and lose Game 7.

 

That would be the quintessential Wisconsin thing to do. Like going into the NFL's loudest stadium and blowing a 4th quarter lead in the NFCCG. Or forcing an NLCS Game 7 and losing at home. Or taking out an all-time great undefeated Kentucky team to then lose the title by choking away a late lead.

 

So, I guess, brace for it.

[HiAndTight]

I would just say to folks trying to rip or cut down Giannis here to keep it in perspective. He's being guarded by 3 guys. You can't just "want it" enough to score through 3 guys. The issue is they seemed to have abandoned any flow and motion in their offense and are relying to much on him driving straight at 3 guys waiting for him. Need other ways to get going with ball screens, starting him low, have others start with the ball, him kick it before he gets off balance so he can get zip on the pass, etc.

 

IF you have this advantage of a guy being guarded by 3 you have to be able to get countless wide open shots off it. Yet somehow they're not, Mid only got up two 3 balls last night, how is that possible.

 

You aren't wrong, but there have been plenty of times where Giannis draws that and needs to pass but instead Bledsoes his way to the basket and either coughs up the ball or gets fouled and doesn't convert.

 

That's been his biggest weakness in this series. He was able to overcome it in the Boston series after Game 1, but he's still forcing too much.

 

One other thing that's stuck out to me, and again, I didn't coach Basketball, just been a fan for a long time, so I could be wrong on this, but it appears to me that when he's driving and he picks up the ball, he's usually not holding the ball high where he can elevate and either make a pass or shot a 8 footer cleanly. He's going down and trying to come up strong and getting the ball stripped or deflected when he goes to pass. Same thing Bledsoe's doing to a degree, but the difference is about 10 inches. The Raptors, namely Kawhi and to a lesser degree Siakam among their bigs have really good hands, so maybe he's worried about getting it stripped.

 

I don't know, maybe someone who's coached the game can tell me if I'm off on this one or not.

[Pugger]

I would just say to folks trying to rip or cut down Giannis here to keep it in perspective. He's being guarded by 3 guys. You can't just "want it" enough to score through 3 guys. The issue is they seemed to have abandoned any flow and motion in their offense and are relying to much on him driving straight at 3 guys waiting for him. Need other ways to get going with ball screens, starting him low, have others start with the ball, him kick it before he gets off balance so he can get zip on the pass, etc.

 

IF you have this advantage of a guy being guarded by 3 you have to be able to get countless wide open shots off it. Yet somehow they're not, Mid only got up two 3 balls last night, how is that possible.

 

It also hasn't helped that our shooting has been dreadful for stretches in this series - something they didn't do in the regular season. Toronto's D is great but how many long 2s and 3s did we miss? If we aren't hitting our shots or getting rebounds it isn't easy to win Giannis or no Giannis.

[tmwiese55]

I would just say to folks trying to rip or cut down Giannis here to keep it in perspective. He's being guarded by 3 guys. You can't just "want it" enough to score through 3 guys. The issue is they seemed to have abandoned any flow and motion in their offense and are relying to much on him driving straight at 3 guys waiting for him. Need other ways to get going with ball screens, starting him low, have others start with the ball, him kick it before he gets off balance so he can get zip on the pass, etc.

 

IF you have this advantage of a guy being guarded by 3 you have to be able to get countless wide open shots off it. Yet somehow they're not, Mid only got up two 3 balls last night, how is that possible.

 

You aren't wrong, but there have been plenty of times where Giannis draws that and needs to pass but instead Bledsoes his way to the basket and either coughs up the ball or gets fouled and doesn't convert.

 

Agree on that. Kind of what I was thinking with the him passing it earlier before he gets off balance, same notion to basically not force it. This is counter to the joe schmo fans take of "he's the MVP he's just gotta force it and attack and just get it done". If anything I think he's forcing it too much, like you're getting at, whereas they should be playinga s a team and taking advantage of this sag. Like initially go so the help guy sags in but then move the ball quickly to the wing. Then that guy attacks, swings, repeat, until someone is wide open a crease is made for a finish at the hoop. Brog, Hill, Bled are good drivers. Attack those closeouts.

[tmwiese55]

I would just say to folks trying to rip or cut down Giannis here to keep it in perspective. He's being guarded by 3 guys. You can't just "want it" enough to score through 3 guys. The issue is they seemed to have abandoned any flow and motion in their offense and are relying to much on him driving straight at 3 guys waiting for him. Need other ways to get going with ball screens, starting him low, have others start with the ball, him kick it before he gets off balance so he can get zip on the pass, etc.

 

IF you have this advantage of a guy being guarded by 3 you have to be able to get countless wide open shots off it. Yet somehow they're not, Mid only got up two 3 balls last night, how is that possible.

 

You aren't wrong, but there have been plenty of times where Giannis draws that and needs to pass but instead Bledsoes his way to the basket and either coughs up the ball or gets fouled and doesn't convert.

 

That's been his biggest weakness in this series. He was able to overcome it in the Boston series after Game 1, but he's still forcing too much.

 

One other thing that's stuck out to me, and again, I didn't coach Basketball, just been a fan for a long time, so I could be wrong on this, but it appears to me that when he's driving and he picks up the ball, he's usually not holding the ball high where he can elevate and either make a pass or shot a 8 footer cleanly. He's going down and trying to come up strong and getting the ball stripped or deflected when he goes to pass. Same thing Bledsoe's doing to a degree, but the difference is about 10 inches. The Raptors, namely Kawhi and to a lesser degree Siakam among their bigs have really good hands, so maybe he's worried about getting it stripped.

 

I don't know, maybe someone who's coached the game can tell me if I'm off on this one or not.

 

Don't think you're wrong but it's also how he always does it with the Euro step. So it's not like he's doing something different. Main difference is regular season when three guys bump him and reach in and hit him on the arms it's a foul. Now, it's not.

[coolhandluke121]

I've said a few times that the Bucks are overrated shooters. They got so many wide open looks that even an average shooting team would have pretty good percentages. I think we're seeing some of that this series. Another issue is that they don't really move well off the ball and run their defenders through screens. Coaching is part of that, but I think a bigger issue is either lack of speed/energy or lack of basketball intelligence, depending on the player (Lopez lacks speed, Ersan isn't especially quick, Khris lacks energy, Bledsoe lacks the shot, and Mirotic shoots most of his 3's from the most inefficient spot on the floor).

[tmwiese55]

Yup it's a collection of ok shooters but no true sharpshooters. So the whole 3 barrage of the season was just about volume, not that they're particularly great shooters. I assume the %s are very middle of the road as a team, which is probably more glaring considering how open they are. Middleton really should be a better shooter than he is, for some reason he shoots a poor percent on wide open shots.

[coolhandluke121]

Yup it's a collection of ok shooters but no true sharpshooters. So the whole 3 barrage of the season was just about volume, not that they're particularly great shooters. I assume the %s are very middle of the road as a team, which is probably more glaring considering how open they are. Middleton really should be a better shooter than he is, for some reason he shoots a poor percent on wide open shots.

 

They're tied for 14th in the regular season and they're 10th (out of 16 teams) in the postseason. Not good considering how many open looks they get because of Giannis's gravity. I really need to see a breakdown by open looks. I'm convinced that makes it even worse. For example, if one teams hits 37.5% of their open looks and 30% of their contested looks, but 2/3 of their attempts are open, they'll hit 35%, but a team that hits 40% of their open looks and 32.5% of their contested looks, but 1/3 of their attempts are open, will also shoot 35%.

[bucks2281]

Hey, for whatever it’s worth, the 2012 Spurs (with Bud as an assistant coach) won their first two home games in the WCF and then choked away the next four to the Thunder. They then went to the Finals two years in a row and came within a minute of winning back to back titles.

[tmwiese55]

Exactly and I'm fairly sure for some reason Mid shoots poorly on open looks if you find the data. Somehow he's better with a mid range shot and a guy draped on him than he is wide open. Especially when if you remember back when he first got good for us years ago he was just a marksmen from the corner when left wide open.

[HiAndTight]

 

 

As for Hill, let's say for argument's sake, the Bucks do decline his option. Is there any reason they can't offer him the MLE? It would take away a huge weapon in Lopez,

 

The main reason is that it's earmarked for Lopez. You may not recall, but I actually proposed that as an alternative option that might be bearable for everyone when the argument got really heated. But I don't think many people consider Hill that much more important than Lopez, and my argument is still that they should pay the luxury tax through the nose for a year and keep all of them.

 

But a more important reason is that they can't count on having the full MLE, and Hill could easily get some other contender's full MLE. No reason to believe he would settle for the taxpayer MLE from the Bucks. This is the same guy who turned down a 4/$88m extension from the Jazz in an effort to extract every dollar possible. He didn't get the payday he was looking for in free agency, so I would bet against him accepting a bargain deal this time around. He hasn't earned that much. Never had a huge contract like Brooklyn gave Lopez, for example.

 

And even if they free up enough to guarantee the full MLE (Snell + Pat C + pick #30 to a team with cap space for their 2nd-round pick?), they would lose the full MLE as soon as Brogdon signs an offer sheet. There's a lot of moving parts and too much to juggle. They could end up with a lot of egg on their face. Every free agent has the ability to hold them hostage, intentionally or not. Hill is the only one who doesn't because it's a team option, and he's easily worth 1/$18m in a vacuum. It's only the Bucks' cap situation that makes people question whether he's worth it, but that should make them question one of two of the other guys more than they question Hill because he has been their 2nd-best player throughout the playoffs and was arguably 2nd or 3rd when he got more opportunities because of Brogdon's injury in the regular season as well.

 

If a huge tax bill is not an option, I would just pick up Hill's option, accept that you're only going to have the taxpayer MLE, offer it to Lopez, give it to some other big if he declines (I think a lot of serviceable centers would see what the Bucks did for Lopez and love the same opportunity), match offers for Brogdon, and just accept that you're going to lose a good player in free agency. You're losing a good player if you don't pick up Hill's option anyway. Just let whoever asks for too much walk. If Khris is asking for more than $30m a year, keep Niko. If Niko is asking for more than his current contract, keep Khris. Once one walks, you can offer the other one a little more. If both accept team-friendly deals, then keep both, but I'm not holding my breath.

 

 

The main reason is that it's earmarked for Lopez. You may not recall, but I actually proposed that as an alternative option that might be bearable for everyone when the argument got really heated. But I don't think many people consider Hill that much more important than Lopez, and my argument is still that they should pay the luxury tax through the nose for a year and keep all of them.

 

I do not recall. But he's a good fit there. I'd love to bring this exact same team back next year, but they're already sitting at 135 without Brogdon and with Middleton having a cap hold of 13 million IIRC.

 

And that tax is only going to get worse. I don't think you approach Giannis with anything BUT the Super-max. Maybe there's a chance he is willing to take less(I actually don't even know if they could still offer him the "max" and get that 5th year or if they offer less than the supermax can they only get the 4 years), but as much as we love to talk about him living with his parents and being grounded, he's not a naive kid. I don't think he'd pass up on that type of money-super max vs the max-

 

We have 1 1/2 point guards without Hill. I'm not counting Frazier, I'm counting Brogdon. He can run the point, he's a good passer, he's able to penetrate pretty well and he's a bigger physical guard with a big wing span, but he's not really a true PG and I think he works much better starting at the 2 anyway. Not that it means a whole lot with the position-less basketball today.

 

But we ned multiple guys capable of playing the point more than we need a 7 footer who can knock down 3's. I also don't really think Lopez is going to be getting big offers this off-season. There are a lot of solid players on the market.

 

Maybe he likes it here and is willing to sign for the Not-Qualified Vets exemption or whatever which is 120 pct of his current salary. [sarcasm]Maybe talk to the owner of the Harbor Front Condo's into giving him a free one like they're trying to do with Kawhi in Toronto![/sarcasm]

 

 

But a more important reason is that they can't count on having the full MLE, and Hill could easily get some other contender's full MLE. No reason to believe he would settle for the taxpayer MLE from the Bucks. This is the same guy who turned down a 4/$88m extension from the Jazz in an effort to extract every dollar possible. He didn't get the payday he was looking for in free agency, so I would bet against him accepting a bargain deal this time around. He hasn't earned that much. Never had a huge contract like Brooklyn gave Lopez, for example.

 

I was hoping if they signed the players in the right order maybe he'd sign while we still qualified for the regular MLE. Apparently, you can't manipulate the contracts like that?

 

Turning down that 4/88 from Utah has to sting though. That's the off-season where everyone was spending like drunk sailors at a whore house. I remember articles talking about how we signed two pretty good deals(Delly and Telly). And while they weren't, they were compared to some others that were signed.

 

I wouldn't blame him for holding out for every penny. We believe he's got a future as a coach or anaylyst or whatever, but he's gotta get his money now. NBA reference shows his career earnings at about 65 million dollars. If he'd made 150, it'd be different, but that money disappears quickly.

 

And even if they free up enough to guarantee the full MLE (Snell + Pat C + pick #30 to a team with cap space for their 2nd-round pick?), they would lose the full MLE as soon as Brogdon signs an offer sheet. There's a lot of moving parts and too much to juggle. They could end up with a lot of egg on their face. Every free agent has the ability to hold them hostage, intentionally or not. Hill is the only one who doesn't because it's a team option, and he's easily worth 1/$18m in a vacuum. It's only the Bucks' cap situation that makes people question whether he's worth it, but that should make them question one of two of the other guys more than they question Hill because he has been their 2nd-best player throughout the playoffs and was arguably 2nd or 3rd when he got more opportunities because of Brogdon's injury in the regular season as well.

 

Well, that wouldn't be worth it then. Pat C is a valuable rotation guy, we need to hit on that pick and get a good role player. I'm under no illusions that we'll get the next Capella, but the two bigs I mentioned, Fernando and Gafford could be important role players. Worth if it it assures you of being able to offer that, but not if you're going to lose it once Brogdon signs. We don't completely see eye to eye on the exact values of the players on the team, but I think Brogdon made himself some extra money with a great playoff run of his own. And being able to play Kawhi tough and then come back and play smaller quicker PG's adequately. Throw in 44 pct from 3 or whatever he is, and his ability to get to the basket and I think someone's gonna offer him 4/60 or so. And I kinda think the Bucks have to match.

 

And the thing that makes me question if Hill is worth it is very simple. You'd be swapping out one year of a 34 year old PG for 4-5 years of much younger players. The window I'm looking at is Giannis and if the Bucks had any other assets that'd be different. If they had the foresight to make some of the moves Boston did and they were able to add a guy like Tatum to a team that's already contending(not him per say, but a very talented player or high draft pick).

 

But they bungled the rebuild so badly up until Horst took over, he's been working on fumes and making things appear out of almost nowhere. The Mirotic trade felt like a video game trade. "These two young guys and 4 second round picks."

 

It's kinda ridiculous. MY bottom line is this, they have almost zero assets for the next couple years. They'll have this years pick and they don't have the assets to make any moves after that. Any of consequence anyway. Maybe they sign a guy who was just bought out at some point, but the future will be very tough on Horst. So I can't justify passing on the younger guys in favor of the older guy for one year. I think Middleton and Brogdon are better, but it's impossible to quantify the value of having an experienced backup PG.

 

If a huge tax bill is not an option, I would just pick up Hill's option, accept that you're only going to have the taxpayer MLE, offer it to Lopez, give it to some other big if he declines (I think a lot of serviceable centers would see what the Bucks did for Lopez and love the same opportunity), match offers for Brogdon, and just accept that you're going to lose a good player in free agency. You're losing a good player if you don't pick up Hill's option anyway. Just let whoever asks for too much walk. If Khris is asking for more than $30m a year, keep Niko. If Niko is asking for more than his current contract, keep Khris. Once one walks, you can offer the other one a little more. If both accept team-friendly deals, then keep both, but I'm not holding my breath.

 

 

I just don't see how you replace Middleton. He isn't a great player, but he's a very-very good player. I think he's quite a bit better than Hill personally. I understand you don't see it that way, but they had Kawhi on him for long periods last night for a reason. And he is normally fine shooting contested shots.

 

If you take him away from this team, I think it fundamentally alters the trajectory of the franchise moving forward. 6'8 SG/SF's who have the length he has, the ability to defend, rebound, and perhaps most importantly, score in the half court on this team, one of the few guys who can do it. I'll gladly let Mirotic go and overpay Middleton. I know Ersan can't do quite what Mirotic can, but between he and Wilson, you can cover that loss far better than you can with say, Snell and Brown. Snell was signed because he played so good when Middleton was hurt, but that was both a couple years ago and a big drop off.

 

I can't see them getting past the loss of Middleton.

 

I'd prefer Hill back, but we just differ when it comes to the sacrifices we think we should make in order for that to happen. Hill's primary value at this point is as a veteran, playoff experienced PG. If he can't be had, I'd try my luck with Rondo who has been a really good PG in the playoffs, Rubio, or Patrick Beveryly. They're different PG's, Rondo is obviously not the on-ball defender he once was and that was never great, but he's great at getting in the passing lanes. He is a brilliant passer along with Rubio. This wouldn't even be that big of a concern is Bledsoe hadn't looked so lost at times in this post-season.

 

I'd then be all for drafting a PG, but I just don't know enough about the PG's that could be available, but I wouldn't want to count on them in crunch time. I suppose if things don't work out with Hill, they'll have a full season to try and find a dependable backup PG so Brogdon doesn't have to serve in that role.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

Yeah this team would benefit tremendously from a Dell Curry type. Just some vet who doesn't miss open shots. He'd get plenty of them.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

I'm take it or leave it on Middleton. I believe his value to the Bucks is considerable and higher than it is elsewhere. It's reasonable you take a step back if he leaves. But that dude disappears way too often for how good he's supposed to be. We need a Robin and he is just so inconsistent. I'd understand it if they go either way and I'd embrace going in another direction.

[HiAndTight]

 

Don't think you're wrong but it's also how he always does it with the Euro step. So it's not like he's doing something different. Main difference is regular season when three guys bump him and reach in and hit him on the arms it's a foul. Now, it's not.

 

 

Right, but I'm not talking about his Euro step per say. Just when he's riving to the lane. Part of it is that he's out of control and he losses the dribble a bit and has to go down to get it, but I also feel like I remember him kinda tucking it away or holding it chest high when he starts his steps and in this serires if feels like he has to bring the ball all the way up when he's ready to explode to the rim.

[MrTPlush]

Middleton has the Bucks right where he wants the Bucks...just like an NFL team and a QB. Either they pay him to try and stay relevant or become good but it great.

 

I think the Bucks has their golden opportunity this year...sadly for them. Maybe Giannis finds a shot to be a true elite top of the hill player...but without it I think it will be hard for them to win a championship with him. Only because I am not convinced they can recruit the players needed to come pair with him. They want LeBron or Curry.

[lcbj68c]

How VanVleet was given so many wide open shots in half court play, I'll never know. After two or three, you can't leave him alone. We had guards leaving him when 34 was in the lane contesting. Crazy nuts..

 

Can't tell anybody that here. So long as they don't make layups, you let the other team take every uncontested 3 they want. Who cares if they make em. They won 60 games with that method, you didn't know?

[OldSchoolSnapper]

How VanVleet was given so many wide open shots in half court play, I'll never know. After two or three, you can't leave him alone. We had guards leaving him when 34 was in the lane contesting. Crazy nuts..

 

Can't tell anybody that here. So long as they don't make layups, you let the other team take every uncontested 3 they want. Who cares if they make em. They won 60 games with that method, you didn't know?

 

Sweet straw man. But for the millionth time, literally none of the data in this series would support the argument that leaving guys "wide open for threes" is why they are going to lose. TOR is hitting them at about the same clip everybody else did. You know what isn't happening the same? The Bucks making their own shots.

[HiAndTight]

Exactly and I'm fairly sure for some reason Mid shoots poorly on open looks if you find the data. Somehow he's better with a mid range shot and a guy draped on him than he is wide open. Especially when if you remember back when he first got good for us years ago he was just a marksmen from the corner when left wide open.

 

 

I would be shocked to find that's the case. The Raptors used Kawhi on Middleton probably more than they did Giannis. He didn't have room to breathe all game long and as such, he just didn't take many shots.

 

He's definitely capable of making the contested shots, but when I see him with an open look...something you very seldom see, I probably feel better with him taking it than anyone not named Brogdon.

 

The good news is the one type of player you can pretty much always find is that Kyle Korver type shooter. At least if you're a contender.

It just doesn't always work out. I think that's what the Raptors thought they were getting in Danny Green who hit 46 pct of his 3's this year yet has been awful in the playofs.

[coolhandluke121]

Sorry but that's just too long to reply to everything. I will say this though: why aren't all the worries about long-term financial health an argument in favor of keeping the guy on a 1-year deal? You would have Ersan and Hill off the books next summer, and it would be much easier to get out of Snell's contract with one year left than with two. If they did it right, they could get back under the tax threshold after just one year. Avoiding the repeater tax is a pretty big deal. They'd have the full MLE back, wouldn't lose the BAE, and would avoid some of the most severe escalating penalties.

 

To the question about giving someone the full MLE before going over the tax threshold, I never said it isn't possible; it's just very unlikely and there's too much stuff out of your control that could go wrong. And they have to get rid of some salary or renounce some Bird Rights to even make it possible in the first place (right now their cap holds and salary have them over the tax line). And you run the risk of Brogdon signing an offer sheet or one of their free agents insisting that they want to sign early or they will go elsewhere rather than be in limbo. The bottom line is that there are a lot of moving parts and they aren't in control of what their free agents want to do.

 

It really comes down to needs though. They need Hill desperately. He's been the only consistent, poised player in the playoffs (except Brogdon but he missed some games and was a mess in game 4). He plays two positions of need. He can do whatever the team needs him to do and fit in any lineup. Experience matters. Bledsoe is not always reliable, and I could not disagree more about Brogdon playing pg. If he has another position besides SG, it's SF. In fact, one could even argue that it's his best position. He's not nearly quick enough to play PG in this day and age, he often dribbles with his head down against pressure, and he has to turn his back to protect his dribble against quick defenders. It's not even remotely an option IMO. I would play him as a small-ball PF more than a PG honestly.

 

Just give me Hill, a solid center on the taxpayer MLE (whether Lopez or someone else), Brogdon (because they can match offers and have control), and one of Niko or Khris depending on the market. I truly think that's the best team they can have next year if they refuse to have a top-5 payroll. I'll try Brown, Brogdon, DDV, and Snell at sf if Khris walks. I'll give Wilson and sometimes Brown time at PF if Niko walks. I don't see who they're getting at PG with a minimum contract if they cut Hill though.

[homer]

How VanVleet was given so many wide open shots in half court play, I'll never know. After two or three, you can't leave him alone. We had guards leaving him when 34 was in the lane contesting. Crazy nuts..

 

Can't tell anybody that here. So long as they don't make layups, you let the other team take every uncontested 3 they want. Who cares if they make em. They won 60 games with that method, you didn't know?

 

You picked the Celtics in 5.

[homer]

How VanVleet was given so many wide open shots in half court play, I'll never know. After two or three, you can't leave him alone. We had guards leaving him when 34 was in the lane contesting. Crazy nuts..

 

Can't tell anybody that here. So long as they don't make layups, you let the other team take every uncontested 3 they want. Who cares if they make em. They won 60 games with that method, you didn't know?

 

Sweet straw man. But for the millionth time, literally none of the data in this series would support the argument that leaving guys "wide open for threes" is why they are going to lose. TOR is hitting them at about the same clip everybody else did. You know what isn't happening the same? The Bucks making their own shots.

 

Yup other than game 4, defense has not been the issue.

[HiAndTight]

 

Can't tell anybody that here. So long as they don't make layups, you let the other team take every uncontested 3 they want. Who cares if they make em. They won 60 games with that method, you didn't know?

 

Sweet straw man. But for the millionth time, literally none of the data in this series would support the argument that leaving guys "wide open for threes" is why they are going to lose. TOR is hitting them at about the same clip everybody else did. You know what isn't happening the same? The Bucks making their own shots.

 

 

I don't know how much clearer we could have made it. We both posted the stats that disprove this theory at almost the exact same time. We laid out the pct's from the first four games and pointed out that there was very little difference and he just persists. He also seems to think that you can be successful playing man D on every single player, no matter if that's Kawhi or VanVleet.

 

Oh, and didn't you know, the Bucks just didn't WANT to get a hand in his face. It's not that they were helping out on Kawhi and the Raptors did a good job-making the extra pass and a guy who was shooting 12.....TWELVE pct from 3 until game 4 of the ECF's suddenly hit 7 out of 9.

 

Once you've decided something is the problem, you just find a walll...preferably brick, bend at the waste and get a 5-6 foot head start and run into it as hard as you can. Rinse and repeat(and repeat and repeat and repeat).

[HiAndTight]

 

Sweet straw man. But for the millionth time, literally none of the data in this series would support the argument that leaving guys "wide open for threes" is why they are going to lose. TOR is hitting them at about the same clip everybody else did. You know what isn't happening the same? The Bucks making their own shots.

 

Yup other than game 4, defense has not been the issue.

 

 

Even in that game, the Raptors only shot 34 pct from 3. For a point of reference, they shot 35 pct from 3 the 1st game when we beat them.

 

The difference? We had 15 more rebounds than them.

 

Not saying the defense wasn't a problem in game 4, just not in the way some just keeps repeating.

[HiAndTight]

Sorry but that's just too long to reply to everything. I will say this though: why aren't all the worries about long-term financial health an argument in favor of keeping the guy on a 1-year deal? You would have Ersan and Hill off the books next summer, and it would be much easier to get out of Snell's contract with one year left than with two. If they did it right, they could get back under the tax threshold after just one year. Avoiding the repeater tax is a pretty big deal. They'd have the full MLE back, wouldn't lose the BAE, and would avoid some of the most severe escalating penalties.

 

To the question about giving someone the full MLE before going over the tax threshold, I never said it isn't possible; it's just very unlikely and there's too much stuff out of your control that could go wrong. And they have to get rid of some salary or renounce some Bird Rights to even make it possible in the first place (right now their cap holds and salary have them over the tax line). And you run the risk of Brogdon signing an offer sheet or one of their free agents insisting that they want to sign early or they will go elsewhere rather than be in limbo. The bottom line is that there are a lot of moving parts and they aren't in control of what their free agents want to do.

 

It really comes down to needs though. They need Hill desperately. He's been the only consistent, poised player in the playoffs (except Brogdon but he missed some games and was a mess in game 4). He plays two positions of need. He can do whatever the team needs him to do and fit in any lineup. Experience matters. Bledsoe is not always reliable, and I could not disagree more about Brogdon playing pg. If he has another position besides SG, it's SF. In fact, one could even argue that it's his best position. He's not nearly quick enough to play PG in this day and age, he often dribbles with his head down against pressure, and he has to turn his back to protect his dribble against quick defenders. It's not even remotely an option IMO. I would play him as a small-ball PF more than a PG honestly.

 

Just give me Hill, a solid center on the taxpayer MLE (whether Lopez or someone else), Brogdon (because they can match offers and have control), and one of Niko or Khris depending on the market. I truly think that's the best team they can have next year if they refuse to have a top-5 payroll. I'll try Brown, Brogdon, DDV, and Snell at sf if Khris walks. I'll give Wilson and sometimes Brown time at PF if Niko walks. I don't see who they're getting at PG with a minimum contract if they cut Hill though.

 

 

Because that's not my argument. My argument is that because we're going to be over the cap for the foreseeable future and because we have very few assets, it's either keep the guys now, or lose them forever and we're not going to be able to clear cap room to sign anyone while we still have Giannis here.

 

That's what it comes down to. I'm not worried about long term financial health, I'm worried about keeping our team together long term and this is the summer that is going to determine that.

 

And I just don't agree with you on Hill or entirely on Brogdon. We've been through that enough, it's not worth going back and forth. He's been a very steady player in the post-season, he's had some very poor games himself, but he has been a much better post-season player and a vet with experience. I think Brogdon has shown he can play the point. He does not have the on ball quickness, but he's longer and he's more physical and that can make up for that. And it's certainly not as if Hill is equal to Bledsoe at this point in his career in terms of quickness. But I've said this time and time again. Offensively, we just disagree. Brogdon is a very good passer, he's very good at beating his guy and getting into the lane and finishing there or kicking it out. Hill has performed much better in the playoffs than regular season. Compare what they've both done. Claiming he has to turn his back to the defender to protect the ball is a gross exaggeration. He's had to do it at times if Lowry or someone gets a hand in there, but Hill had to do the same thing multiple times in game 4.

 

But again, this is becoming more positionless basketball. Both guards handle the ball regularly. Brogdon has a assist rate of nearly 21 pct while on the floor up from Hill at 16. He's averaging 3.9 asst per game to 2.7 I think for Hill. If Brogdon was a comically bad with the ball in his hands as you're suggesting, it's fair to say he'd have gotten exposed a bit more.

 

Now mind you, I never said he was a better PG than Hill and those stats are obviously very small snippets, but they're not quite telling the story you're telling of a guy who is woefully incapable of handling the ball against pressure and who is waaay too slow to defend PG's. He has to defend differently than Bled and Hill, but he can get physical with them and stop them and contest every shot because he's stronger and longer and much quicker than you give him credit for.

 

 

But really, my foot is almost through this horse. We don't' agree. I respect that. You see something different than I do. I see a deceptively quick defender who's stronger, you see far less with regard to that position. Let stop arguing what really does appear to be the few things we don't agree on.

 

But for the long term health of the Bucks, I'm prioritizing multiple years of Middleton and Brogdon, then Mirotic over 1 year of Hill.

 

And I think we can agree that Middleton is probably going to be overpaid and Hill is going to be overpaid. So I'd rather keep the All-Star who's overpaid, not the backup PG who's overpaid-AS IMPORTANT as a veteran PG is and a good one like Hill. I still value that #2 option more.

Edit-If Hill was 27 and we were talking about him being an effective player for the next 4-5 years, that'd be different, but in this scenario, we're talking about ONE year of Hill vs 5 years of Middleton. Again, I don't care about the Bucks long term financial health as it's pretty much sealed after this off-season. It's just a matter of who they sign and who they decide to let go. I think letting go Middelton in favor of Hill would be short sighted.

 

I think we probably disagree about Middleton as well. Unless I'm mistaken, you said something about him not having the energy to run off screens and move without the ball. I don't agree. He looks very nonchalant out there, but he's often defending the other teams best player and I think he plays smart and hard. And I think he'd be FAR tougher to replace. I don't think that a group of Snell, Brown, Wilson or whoever else was mentioned could come close.

 

But you're also forgetting this. Regardless of what we think of him, the one person's opinion who's probably the most important about Middleton is Giannis. I'm sure there will be people who want to dismiss what he has to say because it's not his job to decide who we keep, etc..etc.., but you come back to Giannis after just falling short of the finals and say, "we thought Middleton was worth 26 million, not 30 million so we let him go and the guy who's going to take his place is Tony Snell for the time being," well then he gets more upset. More upset than when Thon or Kidd left, more upset than when Monroe left. That's the second best player on his team according to him at the very least(and I think that's generally the consensus).

 

Now Giannis who was happy staying in the small market and wasn't the type to go looking for the big city may change is mind as his first priority has always been winning.

 

 

As for who they could get if they decline Hill's option, I listed quite a few quys who'd be options for the MLE. You're talking about the minimum. I don't know what position you can plan to get someone at the minimum.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

One of the domino effects of this series, IMO, if they do end up losing, is that Giannis can kiss future MVPs goodbye until they win a title. Or at least a conference. Missing more than half your FTs and air balling two of them in a conference finals is the kind of thing that sticks with people. Fair or not, there will be a playoff monkey on his back, whether or not there actually is one. But the "he's not a closer" thing will reach fever pitch until they finish the job. That hasn't really gained traction to this point but once the honeymoon phase is over people move on to bagging on guys. It happened to James, it happened to Rodgers, it's just part of the superstar role.