Eastern Conference Finals: Milwaukee Bucks vs Toronto Raptors

[OldSchoolSnapper]

I think that's pretty revisionist. I'd rather Middleton make the shot and take my chances we hold on a final possession. Quite an assumption to say him missing that three made little difference.

[tmwiese55]

Yea, lead taking 3 with under 10 seconds left makes a huge difference on the potential outcome of the game, that's not even debatable.

 

the overall point wasn't that specific shot, but any number of things that could've went different in game 3 to get that W. Any of them happens and you're up 3-0 and possibly done right now.

[adambr2]

I think that's pretty revisionist. I'd rather Middleton make the shot and take my chances we hold on a final possession. Quite an assumption to say him missing that three made little difference.

 

Obviously, I'd rather have had him hit the shot, there's many things I would have rather had happen in these last two games, but I felt like the logic here was well explained.

 

In any event, this back and forth isn't productive anymore. Agree to disagree.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

I'll freak out if they lose tomorrow. Until then there is plenty of reason to believe they can get this right. I hope Drakes comes to town but doubting he will.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

I think that's pretty revisionist. I'd rather Middleton make the shot and take my chances we hold on a final possession. Quite an assumption to say him missing that three made little difference.

 

Obviously, I'd rather have had him hit the shot, there's many things I would have rather had happen in these last two games, but I felt like the logic here was well explained.

 

In any event, this back and forth isn't productive anymore. Agree to disagree.

 

 

If he makes it there is probably about a 40% chance the Bucks win in regulation, maybe higher?. Versus OT being essentially the best-case scenario once he missed. I'm not seeing what there is to disagree on there. Yes they still could have and arguably should have won after the miss, but him hitting that shot likely tips the scale more in their favor than any other point in that game.

 

But yeah, the point was it's a very thin line when you get to this point in the year. A couple moments can dictate a sweep or a 2-2.

[adambr2]

I'll freak out if they lose tomorrow. Until then there is plenty of reason to believe they can get this right. I hope Drakes comes to town but doubting he will.

 

I won't be freaking out if they end up losing tomorrow. I'll be resigned to the mindset that we won't be going to the NBA Finals and will be tuned into Game 6 with no expectations at all.

[tmwiese55]

If you have a 1 pt lead but the other team the ball with under 10 seconds I'd guess you're around 70%-80% to win. The chances of them scoring isn't great and even if they do you're probably getting a timeout and another shot at it on your end.

 

ETA: Googled a win prob calculator and put it a 1 pt lead with 8 seconds left and it said 68%

[OldSchoolSnapper]

Anything short of winning the East with this team is a massive disappointment even though I genuinely thought they'd lose to Boston before that series began. It'll be pretty crushing. Just last year I never thought I'd see the Bucks in a Finals, so to see them get this close and not do it would be devastating as a fan. I'm not really excited about the whole "imagine how good they'll keep getting!" thing because 60 wins is pretty damn good and it won't get easier to replicate that success. They were a dominant 1 seed and they need to capitalize on this. Just like the Brewers should have last year.

 

01 is very fresh for me and I've lamented it since.

[adambr2]

If you have a 1 pt lead but the other team the ball with under 10 seconds I'd guess you're around 70%-80% to win. The chances of them scoring isn't great and even if they do you're probably getting a timeout and another shot at it on your end.

 

ETA: Googled a win prob calculator and put it a 1 pt lead with 8 seconds left and it said 68%

 

Is that 68% chance of winning with a 1 pt lead with 8 seconds left assuming the other team has the ball? Because that's a huge difference in situations of course.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

A 32% chance of the other team scoring in that scenario or scoring and you missing a potential follow-up sounds about right to me. The natural thing as a fan is to be convinced the opponent will score with no/little time left but reality is that happens less often than it does.

[tmwiese55]

If you have a 1 pt lead but the other team the ball with under 10 seconds I'd guess you're around 70%-80% to win. The chances of them scoring isn't great and even if they do you're probably getting a timeout and another shot at it on your end.

 

ETA: Googled a win prob calculator and put it a 1 pt lead with 8 seconds left and it said 68%

 

Is that 68% chance of winning with a 1 pt lead with 8 seconds left assuming the other team has the ball? Because that's a huge difference in situations of course.

 

Yes they let you choose that. Yea just quick google shooting percents on crunch time shots. Even the best guys are poor %s. I mentioned that in regards to iso hero ball too, guys shooting contested jumpers vs set Ds is very low %.

[Pugger]

Whoever wins Game 5 is taking the series...which I am sure odds would agree with, so not that bold. I surely can’t see the Bucks losing that game at home and then expecting to go win two in a row. I just can’t see that. If they lose three in a row I think they are dead meat.

 

If they continue to play this sloppily tomorrow night they are toast. How disappointing to see them play this poorly in these finals. Perhaps they aren't seasoned enough to get to the finals. The Raptors will go into the game tomorrow night full of piss and vinegar and confidence. The Bucks are now the team with their backs against the wall. It will be interesting to see how they respond...

[adambr2]

I definitely admit that's higher than I thought. Personally I would feel quite nervous with a 1 point lead with 8-10 seconds left on the road with the other team having the ball, and somewhat confident with a 1 point deficit at Fiserv in the same situation with our offense having a chance to win.

 

Game 3 is the one that is really going to hurt if we drop the series. That will be the pivotal game, because we had so many chances. If Middleton had his hot shooting Game in Game 3 instead of 4, we're up 3-1. Game 4 we just never really had a chance. Anything remotely resembling a rally was quickly snuffed out.

 

The scary part about Game 4 to me is that Leonard was not all that great. Getting not only beaten but pummeled soundly by Toronto's secondary players was probably not something we felt too concerned about happening.

[Pugger]

Just flip the FT percentages alone and it's a 5 point game instead of 18. We're getting killed at the line.

 

Giannis gets the most attention for it but it's more than him. Brogdon is 30% under his season average in the playoffs. Mirotic, Bledsoe, Ersan, are all giving us 1 for 2.

There's a big free throw problem with this team right now.

 

This has been an issue all season long but is magnified in the post season.

[tmwiese55]

Found one example that showed up right away, there is more out there. here you go: http://www.82games.com/gamewinningshots.htm . This is a few years old but I'm sure it's not terribly different now.

 

Yes, of course you should be nervous since it's so late in the game and if it doesn't go your way you're likely in big trouble but it's clearly less than 50% they make the shot

[OldSchoolSnapper]

The stats don't really bear out the FT thing. Most of the guys are right where you'd expect. Mids is 8/11, Lopez 8/10, Hill 11/12, Mirotic 13/15. Brogdon has only shot 7. Giannis is 10% below his 73% season average and he's shooting most of them, but even if he's 80% that's 33/41 up from the 26/41 he is now. I don't think it'd make any difference is where we are right now. He absolutely needs to be better, not arguing that, but the real issue here is the half-court game they've been forced to play and the overall lackadaisical play of last night.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

The Raptors have however been very smart with when and how they foul Giannis. It's something you can't really do with Leonard as he hits 90%+.

[FVBrewerFan]

Yes, Raptors have been playing very smart basketball. Making it hard for Middleton, Brogdon, and Hill to get open 3s. Not caring much about Mirotic, Lopez, and of course Bledsoe and Giannis. But they pay attention to the three they think can hurt them the most. Very disciplined in building the Giannis wall, and fouling him when they can to make him earn it. All to frustrate him, which has pretty much worked.

 

So basic, but so true, the Bucks just have to get back to playing the way they played all year on both ends. I do expect the defense to pick up tomorrow. Still very concerned about all the dribbling and standing around on offense instead of moving the ball quickly. They're making it very easy for Toronto to react and help.

[HiAndTight]

Bucks aren't a great half-court team and do best by pushing the pace and getting up the court quickly. They've been allowing Toronto to slow down the pace and get back on defense. Especially considering they have the much deeper bench, there's absolutely no reason for it. I wouldn't be opposed to seeing Snell and DJ get six minutes per game for nothing else than telling them to sprint up and down the court to tire their defenders out.

 

The Bucks get aggressive when they know they're the dominant team, but they play scared and slow when they're not sure of that. Their spread offense works when the opposing three guys making the Giannis Wall either haven't all gotten back in time to set up, or Giannis has teammates who run ahead to set up on the corners to be open for a kick-out once the Giannis Wall commits to defending him at the top of the key. They're running mostly even with Giannis when he brings the ball up. Or just as bad, guards have been bringing the ball up the court a lot more in this series than they did in the regular season. Of course Giannis will be passed the ball at the top of the key right away to start the offense, but their open offense really isn't predicated on starting off that late. If they're going to do that, Giannis shouldn't be getting the ball at the top, but he should be trying to set up closer to the basket--it would require two guys on him which should open up kick-outs as well as open things up for Bledsoe to drive. Plus Bledsoe might actually have someone to pass to when he does, which he's been lacking these past few games.

 

Toronto should be tired and Milwaukee should have energy, but you allow opponents to still have energy after 40+ minutes in a game when you've allowed them to slow-jog down the court all night.

 

Plus Bledsoe tends to do best driving to the lane when it's early enough in the shot clock, when the defense hasn't entirely established itself. It's not so much having a man right on him, but having a second defender near the basket to cut him off, and that man has always been there. He at least got the message last night and declined a ton of open 3s and open long shots that Playoff-Bledsoe otherwise would have taken. He's been completely taken out of the series and I don't think it's entirely his fault.

 

Bucks are holding Toronto to basically the same 3-pt percentage that they held all teams to in the regular season, the same % which made them the #1 defense in the League. The success of their defense isn't predicated on the opposing team shooting a low percentage of those shots, but of the Bucks being able to give up just that one shot and then rebounding the ball. It's the rebounding numbers and points in the paint which have been the biggest key. Points in the paint because if they're not getting many, that's allowing the non-Wall defenders to play two or three steps more toward the corners to guard the 3 instead of needing four guys to commit to defending the lane.

 

 

I think this is the root of the issue with the Bucks right now. This is also part of learning how to win. I get what Snapper is saying about how we can't count on next year, especially after 2001 when it looked like we'd have that team together for a while and all the sudden it was just blown up, but that's not the case here.

 

But call it playing scared or playing tight, they're not being decicive and they're making poor, lazy passes, they're dribbling into a crowd out of control(mainly Giannis at times and Bledsoe most of the time) and they seemed timid in the two road games.

 

Honestly, they didn't play great in game 1 either. They were lucky that Lopez came up so big for them.

 

Still, we've got too good of a coach and our players are smart enough that I'm pretty confident going into game 5 at home. I still think it's a 6 game series...

[OldSchoolSnapper]

I guess one of Giannis's reps went after Drake on Twitter. He wasn't wrong, but probably should've been left unsaid. He deleted the Tweet. Basically said it was unprofessional of security to allow Drake to roam around and at one point rub Nurse's shoulders. Can't really say he's wrong there.

 

That should ratchet up the noise for Game 6.

[FVBrewerFan]

I guess one of Giannis's reps went after Drake on Twitter. He wasn't wrong, but probably should've been left unsaid. He deleted the Tweet. Basically said it was unprofessional of security to allow Drake to roam around and at one point rub Nurse's shoulders. Can't really say he's wrong there.

 

That should ratchet up the noise for Game 6.

 

I hate The Drake. That said, he did nothing wrong. He's an Owner, so he can rub Nurse's shoulders all he wants if it's alright with Nurse.

[adambr2]

The thing they need to keep in mind is that we only need to play 1 more game in Toronto, and they have to beat us twice. Protect your homecourt, where you've won 81+% of your games this year and can expect a hostile environment for your opponents, and you're moving on.

 

If we can't, Toronto is a more deserving East rep.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

Drake is not an owner. That's come up several times now. He gave a lot of money to build the training facility and is an employee of the team as their ambassador or something, but he doesn't have a stake in ownership.

 

Even if he did, it is weird if not wrong to be rubbing the coach's shoulders in game. He's also probably the most famous person in Canada so I don't think anyone will tell him to stop.

[FVBrewerFan]

Drake is not an owner. That's come up several times now. He gave a lot of money to build the training facility and is an employee of the team as their ambassador or something, but he doesn't have a stake in ownership.

 

Even if he did, it is weird if not wrong to be rubbing the coach's shoulders in game. He's also probably the most famous person in Canada so I don't think anyone will tell him to stop.

 

Ok, pretty sure the guys on TNT said he was, bad source ; ) Oh yea, i's weird alright. I think it happened so fast Nurse couldn't react. Hopefully he told him privately to respect his space and job as coach and never do it again. But that's on him from now on, maybe he likes it who knows. I would like to see Gruber rub Bud's shoulders. Better yet, Pop's.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

Pop was the first guy I thought of. I don't think he would hesitate to tell somebody to get away from him. Gruber on Bud, lmao. Oh man do I wish that would happen.