Eastern Conference Finals: Milwaukee Bucks vs Toronto Raptors

[OldSchoolSnapper]

You guys still chirping about the 3 point defense are never going to give up, but that has next to nothing to do with these losses. They are getting out hustled, Giannis is out of rhythm completely and instead of the usual cadence, they are just kind of dribbling into traffic and launching prayers. And they are bricking waaaaaay too many good looks.

[OnTheBlack]

I know its the recency bias, but in 2 games I went from believing they had a legit chance to beat GS to now Im not sure they win another game.

 

 

We somehow thought it'd be easy after the Boston series and the game 2 blowout. We stomped the Raptors at home in game 2 by 20+ as well.

 

Three game series going back to Milwaukee. I'm still confident. Bucks can't play with this level of effort or energy though.

[OnTheBlack]

You guys still chirping about the 3 point defense are never going to give up, but that has next to nothing to do with these losses. They are getting out hustled, Giannis is out of rhythm completely and instead of the usual cadence, they are just kind of dribbling into traffic and launching prayers. And they are bricking waaaaaay too many good looks.

 

 

Or dribbling into traffic and bouncing the ball off their knees and giving the Raptors a run out. It's got almost nothing to do with our 3 point defense OTHER than our D as a whole has not been good.

 

Bad decision making, not getting the offensive board and not getting the 50/50 balls.

 

 

The Raptors aren't a joke though. They've got one of the greatest defensive players in recent memory who's hit like 35 of 36 FT's and can actually man up on Giannis. It shouldn't be easy. But we go back to Milwaukee and we should get rolling again.

[PinaMadness]

I'm totally convinced now that whoever comes out of this is getting waxed by GSW.

Yeah, if the Bucks defend the three like this, they'll lose every game by 30.

 

 

The Raptors have hit 35 pct of the threes. If you think THAT is the primary problem, you're not watching the same game I am.

You think the Warriors are only going to shoot 35% against this defense?

[MrTPlush]

Whoever wins Game 5 is taking the series...which I am sure odds would agree with, so not that bold. I surely can’t see the Bucks losing that game at home and then expecting to go win two in a row. I just can’t see that. If they lose three in a row I think they are dead meat.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

You think the Warriors are only going to shoot 35% against this defense?

 

Shot 35 and 41% in a 23 point loss and a 10 pt win against the Bucks.

 

The Bucks shot 25 and 18% in those two games, interestingly enough. 9/35 and 7/39, ouch.

 

The "3 pt defense" thing is just lazy surface level analysis. You sound like the people who turn on a Packer game and just say the team needs someone like Ray Nitschke to solve their problems.

 

That is not even on the radar of the Bucks issues right now. Their offense isn't gelling at all in large part due to the Raps. There are a few problems, but most of them are on offense. And an overall lack of effort tonight.

[OnTheBlack]

You guys still chirping about the 3 point defense are never going to give up, but that has next to nothing to do with these losses. They are getting out hustled, Giannis is out of rhythm completely and instead of the usual cadence, they are just kind of dribbling into traffic and launching prayers. And they are bricking waaaaaay too many good looks.

 

 

Toronto 15/42 from 3 for 35.7 pct

10/32 for 31.3 pct

14/41 for 34.1 pct

 

Won the 1st game by getting 15 more rebounds and basically equal in turnovers.

Won by 22 in the 2nd game by getting 14 more rebounds and just 7 turnovers.

Lost the 3rd game getting out rebounded by 4.

 

Explain to me how it comes down to 3 point shooting? Not you Snapper, those who would have you believe it's the defensive philosophy.

 

 

 

But again, the Raptors were down 2-0 after being bounced by 22(25 before a late 3). That's why home court is so important.

[adambr2]

Whoever wins Game 5 is taking the series...which I am sure odds would agree with, so not that bold. I surely can’t see the Bucks losing that game at home and then expecting to go win two in a row. I just can’t see that. If they lose three in a row I think they are dead meat.

 

If the Bucks lose on Thursday they are cooked. No doubt. The mulligans are used up.

 

They had the opportunity to basically finish this thing on Tuesday and cruise and they couldn't get it done. Now they have to win a battle.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

Whoever wins Game 5 is taking the series...which I am sure odds would agree with, so not that bold. I surely can’t see the Bucks losing that game at home and then expecting to go win two in a row. I just can’t see that. If they lose three in a row I think they are dead meat.

 

I basically agree. The Bucks did do just that in 01 though, going up 2-0, down 3-2, then won in 7, against Charlotte. They lost game 5 in Philly in a game many thought decided the series, went right down to the wire, 89-88. Still remember the photo on the front of the JS.

[OnTheBlack]

You think the Warriors are only going to shoot 35% against this defense?

 

Shot 35 and 41% in a 23 point loss and a 10 pt win against the Bucks.

 

The Bucks shot 25 and 18% in those two games, interestingly enough. 9/35 and 7/39, ouch.

 

The "3 pt defense" thing is just lazy surface level analysis. You sound like the people who turn on a Packer game and just say the team needs someone like Ray Nitschke to solve their problems.

 

That is not even on the radar of the Bucks issues right now. Their offense isn't gelling at all in large part due to the Raps. There are a few problems, but most of them are on offense. And an overall lack of effort tonight.

 

 

You beat me to it. Giannis and this Bucks team will not get out worked again. I don't believe there's any chance. I'm done for now. This "3 point thing," is gonna get too annoying.

[adambr2]

I do wonder how much of the lack of effort is a reflection of this team becoming too laxidasical, if the team started to believe some of the things that were being said. I read an article after Game 2 about the Bucks being a dynasty in the making. I do wonder how much they started hearing, and believing how much better they were. If so, tonight should have been the wakeup call. Here, many of us seemed to have that same attitude after Game 2. This was all over but the crying, and a sweep or gentleman's sweep was inevitable. You'd think we were the 90s Bulls.

 

That's all fine and dandy, fans can believe or say whatever they want, but I wonder how much the team believed it themselves. There's been a real lack of respect for the Raptors in general.

[FVBrewerFan]

I wish I believed they won't get out worked again.

[adambr2]

I wish I believed they won't get out worked again.

 

I do believe it (cautiously). This game reminded me a lot of Game 1 against Boston. I expect them to respond the same as they did from that one.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

I think it's just two really good teams going at it and a reminder that a play or two can shift things drastically when you're talking about the best athletes in the world. Middleton hits that three in G3 and this is possibly a lay down game and sweep. But he didn't. Then all it takes is a discouraging moment or two early on and you're back where you were again.

 

I have no read on this. I could see the Bucks coming home and regaining form or just farting out and losing the next two. It's a young team. Nothing would surprise me after this flat tire.

 

There has to be some adjustment made to get the offensive cadence back though. They've got to get Giannis better looks somehow. That's Bud's job though.

[young guns]

I think I know how Boston fans feel now.

[brwrsfan]

The non charge call in 2OT that fouls Giannis out was one of those moments too. But the Bucks just looked lost and lazy on both ends. Doesn’t make much sense with so much on the line. Gotta hope this serves as a wake up call or that might be it.

 

If you take out game 2, it feels like the Bucks have been down 6-10 points basically every minute of the other 3 games. Hard to play from behind constantly. Games 3 and 4, we cut it to 4, then have a brain fart and give up a breakaway or miss open shots, Raptors hit another finely three (they can’t seem to miss at big moments) and it’s back to 10. Frustrating.

 

I know a lot of looks have been open, but at some point Lowry and Powell have to come back down to earth. Lowry in particular...35% on the season, 25% against the Sixers...is 17-31 so far this series behind the arc.

 

It also probably didn’t matter tonight, but it certainly did in game 3...the difference at the FT line is killing them. Raptors are 45-53 the last two games...bucks are 39-59. That’s a lot of points to leave on the floor. Raptors making more than they should percentage wise, Bucks way less. That stuff adds up in a hurry.

[adambr2]

Just flip the FT percentages alone and it's a 5 point game instead of 18. We're getting killed at the line.

 

Giannis gets the most attention for it but it's more than him. Brogdon is 30% under his season average in the playoffs. Mirotic, Bledsoe, Ersan, are all giving us 1 for 2.

 

There's a big free throw problem with this team right now.

[adambr2]

I also think the evidence is also becoming pretty overwhelming that Eric Bledsoe is going to be a guy who can't perform in the playoffs, rather than the guy we saw in the regular season. That's troubling after just extending him.

 

In the short-term, that's been mitigated because Brogdon and Hill have been terrific. Unfortunately, they were not tonight.

[adambr2]

Middleton hits that three in G3 and this is possibly a lay down game and sweep.

 

You have mentioned this before, but there was 10 seconds left in the game when he put up that shot and would have given us a 1 point lead. No guarantee whatsoever that the Raps don't come down and win it on the final possession. Probably similar chance to winning an OT game which we still had an opportunity to do despite the miss.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

Key word is possibly.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

Bud has to find a way to speed this thing up. I don't have anything in front of me but did the Bucks have a single fast-break bucket last night? It didn't feel like it.

 

The Raptors have forced the Bucks into half-court basketball, which is a battle they will lose with Toronto every time. Those of you lamenting the "lack of depth" chatter, I would just say that it's a relevant issue for TOR, they know it, and have game-planned as such. They know if they run for 48 minutes they will gas, but if they're forcing the Bucks to stop and set up an offense 95% of the time they can hang and that's exactly what they've done. It is a LOT easier to play 35 minutes doing that than it is to run up and down constantly with 7-8 guys.

 

On a lesser note, one thing that really stood out last night was the amount of lazy passes the Bucks had stolen or tipped. Somebody at the top of the key making a routine pass and having it swatted or tipped. Seemed like TOR was diving at everything for life and I didn't see that energy at all from our guys.

 

The box score last is night is strikingly similar between both teams. The Bucks just did not look very hungry.

[adambr2]

Key word is possibly.

 

It was the same possibly as when he missed since the game still went to OT after that. I was assuming you meant possibly the Raps would lay down in 4 if they lost in 3, possibly they wouldn't.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

Key word is possibly.

 

It was the same possibly as when he missed since the game still went to OT after that. I was assuming you meant possibly the Raps would lay down in 4 if they lost in 3, possibly they wouldn't.

 

Huh? I don't have the numbers, but I'm safely assuming the odds of winning are better when +1 with 10 seconds left than they are if you're -2.

[GAME05]

Bucks aren't a great half-court team and do best by pushing the pace and getting up the court quickly. They've been allowing Toronto to slow down the pace and get back on defense. Especially considering they have the much deeper bench, there's absolutely no reason for it. I wouldn't be opposed to seeing Snell and DJ get six minutes per game for nothing else than telling them to sprint up and down the court to tire their defenders out.

 

The Bucks get aggressive when they know they're the dominant team, but they play scared and slow when they're not sure of that. Their spread offense works when the opposing three guys making the Giannis Wall either haven't all gotten back in time to set up, or Giannis has teammates who run ahead to set up on the corners to be open for a kick-out once the Giannis Wall commits to defending him at the top of the key. They're running mostly even with Giannis when he brings the ball up. Or just as bad, guards have been bringing the ball up the court a lot more in this series than they did in the regular season. Of course Giannis will be passed the ball at the top of the key right away to start the offense, but their open offense really isn't predicated on starting off that late. If they're going to do that, Giannis shouldn't be getting the ball at the top, but he should be trying to set up closer to the basket--it would require two guys on him which should open up kick-outs as well as open things up for Bledsoe to drive. Plus Bledsoe might actually have someone to pass to when he does, which he's been lacking these past few games.

 

Toronto should be tired and Milwaukee should have energy, but you allow opponents to still have energy after 40+ minutes in a game when you've allowed them to slow-jog down the court all night.

 

Plus Bledsoe tends to do best driving to the lane when it's early enough in the shot clock, when the defense hasn't entirely established itself. It's not so much having a man right on him, but having a second defender near the basket to cut him off, and that man has always been there. He at least got the message last night and declined a ton of open 3s and open long shots that Playoff-Bledsoe otherwise would have taken. He's been completely taken out of the series and I don't think it's entirely his fault.

 

Bucks are holding Toronto to basically the same 3-pt percentage that they held all teams to in the regular season, the same % which made them the #1 defense in the League. The success of their defense isn't predicated on the opposing team shooting a low percentage of those shots, but of the Bucks being able to give up just that one shot and then rebounding the ball. It's the rebounding numbers and points in the paint which have been the biggest key. Points in the paint because if they're not getting many, that's allowing the non-Wall defenders to play two or three steps more toward the corners to guard the 3 instead of needing four guys to commit to defending the lane.

[adambr2]

Key word is possibly.

 

It was the same possibly as when he missed since the game still went to OT after that. I was assuming you meant possibly the Raps would lay down in 4 if they lost in 3, possibly they wouldn't.

 

Huh? I don't have the numbers, but I'm safely assuming the odds of winning are better when +1 with 10 seconds left than they are if you're -2.

 

In that moment and in a vacuum, of course. But those aren't the situations to compare. If Middleton hits the 3, Siakim isn't fouled, doesn't miss the two FTs and we don't get the ball back and tie it. The Raptors are down 1 and likely either win or lose on a last shot instead of going to OT.

 

All I'm saying is that the Middleton 3 gets brought up as a pivotal game moment when in reality it probably ended up making little difference. We still had a chance after that and could have and should have put it away in OT. I thought the Giannis block/charge call ended up being much bigger in hindsight.