Sellers at the Deadline?

[coolhandluke121]

Besides the issue of most of their trade chips being rentals of marginal value, the Brewers also don't seem to have the right window for that sort of thing. What I mean by that is they don't appear to have a great young cohort of young players who would justify taking a step backwards now in order to take two steps forward later. Burnes, Peralta, Woodruff... who knows? Yelich and Hader are obviously locks to be very valuable for a while, and Hiura is probably, but Arcia has lost a lot of his shine since skyrocketing up the prospect rankings a few years ago. Knebel lost at least a full season in his pre-arbitration prime to TJ surgery. Everyone else who's actually a decent player is a slightly above average veteran, in his prime or slightly past it, who won't really be that coveted.

 

I think they had some great farm system rankings on the strength of their organizational depth, but they didn't have a lot of can't-miss types and we're seeing that now. The long-term core is probably Yelich, Hader, Hiura, Arcia, and the 3 young staff aces. That's rather thin. It's not the type of core that makes you say "let's give up on this year, after one of the franchise's best seasons ever, trade a few vets, and be that much better off for the next 5 years." One, because you're not getting that much value for the vets you trade anyway, and two, because the handful of young guys you would be building around are few and far between and, frankly, several of them are probably not as good as you had hoped.

 

I just think they'd be better off trying to salvage what is still a pretty solid, deep team with a lot of veterans who are perfectly capable of making the playoffs again, even in a much tougher league.

[bill hAll Star]

Besides the issue of most of their trade chips being rentals of marginal value, the Brewers also don't seem to have the right window for that sort of thing. What I mean by that is they don't appear to have a great young cohort of young players who would justify taking a step backwards now in order to take two steps forward later. Burnes, Peralta, Woodruff... who knows? Yelich and Hader are obviously locks to be very valuable for a while, and Hiura is probably, but Arcia has lost a lot of his shine since skyrocketing up the prospect rankings a few years ago. Knebel lost at least a full season in his pre-arbitration prime to TJ surgery. Everyone else who's actually a decent player is a slightly above average veteran, in his prime or slightly past it, who won't really be that coveted.

 

I think they had some great farm system rankings on the strength of their organizational depth, but they didn't have a lot of can't-miss types and we're seeing that now. The long-term core is probably Yelich, Hader, Hiura, Arcia, and the 3 young staff aces. That's rather thin. It's not the type of core that makes you say "let's give up on this year, after one of the franchise's best seasons ever, trade a few vets, and be that much better off for the next 5 years." One, because you're not getting that much value for the vets you trade anyway, and two, because the handful of young guys you would be building around are few and far between and, frankly, several of them are probably not as good as you had hoped.

 

I just think they'd be better off trying to salvage what is still a pretty solid, deep team with a lot of veterans who are perfectly capable of making the playoffs again, even in a much tougher league.

 

I agree with most of this and will add 2 things:

 

1. You mentioned it but "much tougher league" is very important. I'm not firing everyone/quitting whatever plan I have if the Brewers only win 84 games this year. The NL happens to be very competitive right now and with the way baseball is, I'm not holding it against them unless there was some extremely stupid stuff happening in the front office. Now if it happens for a few years then you have to change course. Of course that's the downside of thinking you're in a contention window. You could be wrong and blow 2-3 years finding out.

 

2. Piggybacking off of #1, I know that Stearns has made some bad moves in his tenure and some think that it is causing some of the struggles this year, but I trust his process. So while we are thin in some areas, I think he will find a way to right the ship if this year is underwhelming. Having some urgency to open up the checkbook a little bit from Mark doesn't hurt.

[coolhandluke121]

 

2. Piggybacking off of #1, I know that Stearns has made some bad moves in his tenure and some think that it is causing some of the struggles this year, but I trust his process. So while we are thin in some areas, I think he will find a way to right the ship if this year is underwhelming.

 

Don't say piggybacking here; it doesn't go over well after all the pitching debates...

 

And yes, they should be given the benefit of the doubt if they just want to tinker a little before they punt on this season. They've earned that. I realize there's some historical baggage here because they didn't always plan for sustainable success and we don't want to go back to that, but the problem was them thinking they could always find enough band-aids to compete every year. This is not about wanting to go back to that; this is about not wanting them to say "we can't compete at all," even though they still can.

[wntrtxn21]

I've refrained from bringing this up because of all the positive vibes from last year, but we really are in a very good position to sell this year.

 

Chacin, Anderson, Grandal, Moose, and Thames are all obvious candidates.

 

The MOST obvious candidate is Hader. Everybody else will give us middling prospects. Package Hader with a couple other guys and we could really get a haul. Royce Lewis, Alex Kiriloff and Brusdar Graterol sounds good to me.

 

Selling high on bullpen arms is a sound long term strategy.

 

Lewis hitting .219/.318 at A+ right now. 2nd year at A+ and he continues to struggle. Highly questionable right now. Kiriloff is a good looking OF prospect currently just moved up to AA. Graterol is really doing well, but again, just started at AA. To give away one of the top relievers in the game plus others, Stearns is going to want people closer to MLB ready.

[adambr2]

I personally don't think this team has enough starting pitching to make the World Series this year. If you dont have the horses to win big, then IMHO, sell.

 

This team is prime for selling:

 

1. Chacin: If he continues to pitch well, he could bring a haul. I don't see many top end pitchers on the market this year. I really think many would be surprised with the return.

 

2. Grandal: He's not Lucroy from a few years ago, but he would bring at least one top notch prospect.

 

3. Hader: Excellent sell high candidate. With many years of control, you are talking the Ken Giles return from a few years ago.

 

4. Moose: Not going to bring a haul, but could at least bring back a Brett Phillips.

 

5. Anderson: If he pitches well someone might be interested. doubt he brings back a haul though.

 

6. Thames. I think someone would bite on him as a pinch hitter, although I think he would be more of a salary dump with little return.

 

As others have stated, if the Brewers sell they will not be in rebuild mode.

 

Instead it will be more of an Athletics mode. Churn some useful players to re-stock the system. Then come back and try to compete in 2020.

 

Other than Hader, I think you are seriously overestimating the trade value of these guys.

[nate82]

A lot of over valuing of some players here.

 

Yelich and Hader are probably the only untouchable players. This is more because of I don't see any team giving up the players needed for the Brewers to part with either Hader or Yelich. In order for the Brewers to trade Hader you are looking at a Chapman to the Cubs type of a deal as the starting point plus more. For Yelich you are talking about a trade like Sale to the Red Sox plus a little bit more.

 

Grandal holds the highest value who could be traded. A Lucroy like return is what I would expect for Grandal maybe a little bit less.

 

Guerra is probably the next player with some value but I wouldn't expect anything more than a B-/C+ type prospect. Think what the Brewers gave up for Soria as the possible return. Thames has some value but 1B/DH types haven't been bringing in much for value maybe a team might get desperate and go after Thames if they need a DH and you get lucky and you can get a C+ type prospect. This is the same issue with trading Moustakas though I think he could bring in a little bit higher prospect in the B- range but a team would have to fall in love with him.

 

Perez may bring in a better return than Thames and Moustakas.

[adambr2]

Grandal is not bringing back a Lucroy type return and I have no idea why people think that. That's essentially a Realmuto type return. Lucroy having that extra year of control was enormous. Grandal is a pure rental. Not even a cheap one. He's a major salary factor for many teams at the deadline. He cost 4 times what Lucroy cost. Also, he's good, but we're not talking the prime of Ivan Rodriguez here. Many teams question his defense, and he's slowed down offensively.

 

I find the idea that 3 months of Grandal could net a package similar to Lucroy's deal to be absolutely absurd. Please name one time in MLB history when a rental catcher was traded for a significant haul.

 

If it were that easy, teams would strategically sign an expensive rental every year just to flip them and restock the farm every summer. We'd go get Kuechel and Kimbrel right now just to pay them for 3 months and trade them.

[nate82]

Grandal is not bringing back a Lucroy type return and I have no idea why people think that. That's essentially a Realmuto type return. Lucroy having that extra year of control was enormous. Grandal is a pure rental. Not even a cheap one. He's a major salary factor for many teams at the deadline. He cost 4 times what Lucroy cost. Also, he's good, but we're not talking the prime of Ivan Rodriguez here. Many teams question his defense, and he's slowed down offensively.

 

I find the idea that 3 months of Grandal could net a package similar to Lucroy's deal to be absolutely absurd. Please name one time in MLB history when a rental catcher was traded for a significant haul.

 

If it were that easy, teams would strategically sign an expensive rental every year just to flip them and restock the farm every summer. We'd go get Kuechel and Kimbrel right now just to pay them for 3 months and trade them.

 

Lucroy brought in one good prospect and two so-so prospects and Lucroy was packaged with Jeffress in case you forgot about that. Grandal could bring in at least one decent prospect not sure how that is absurd.

 

Grandal for a top 25-40 prospect wouldn't be out of the question.

 

Why does there have to be a deal in MLB history seems like you are just randomly spewing out garbage.

[adambr2]

Grandal is not bringing back a Lucroy type return and I have no idea why people think that. That's essentially a Realmuto type return. Lucroy having that extra year of control was enormous. Grandal is a pure rental. Not even a cheap one. He's a major salary factor for many teams at the deadline. He cost 4 times what Lucroy cost. Also, he's good, but we're not talking the prime of Ivan Rodriguez here. Many teams question his defense, and he's slowed down offensively.

 

I find the idea that 3 months of Grandal could net a package similar to Lucroy's deal to be absolutely absurd. Please name one time in MLB history when a rental catcher was traded for a significant haul.

 

If it were that easy, teams would strategically sign an expensive rental every year just to flip them and restock the farm every summer. We'd go get Kuechel and Kimbrel right now just to pay them for 3 months and trade them.

 

Lucroy brought in one good prospect and two so-so prospects and Lucroy was packaged with Jeffress in case you forgot about that. Grandal could bring in at least one decent prospect not sure how that is absurd.

 

Grandal for a top 25-40 prospect wouldn't be out of the question.

 

Why does there have to be a deal in MLB history seems like you are just randomly spewing out garbage.

 

Uh no, your lack of understanding doesn't make it garbage, I supported my points quite thoroughly. "Why does there have to be a deal in MLB history" as you asked, uh gee, perhaps to show that there is some sort of precedence for your suggested trade. Did not think that was an unreasonable ask.

 

Yes, I already mentioned that Jeffress was included had you read my initial post on this on the first page. That supports my point, not yours.

 

Yes, Grandal for a top 25-40 prospect is out of the question. That's more than Manny Machado brought back and even HE was cheaper than Grandal. Unless you think Yasmani Grandal is going to be in the NL MVP conversation in July it's an extreme overvalue.

 

A significant part of Lucroy's worth came from him NOT being a rental AND a far cheaper contract which gave him significantly more surplus value. JosephC could break this down better than me, but surplus value is the main part of this equation that you're missing. It's not just which catcher is better when traded. Lucroy had a 5.25M team option for '17 that probably added $20M alone in surplus value.

[wntrtxn21]

I personally don't think this team has enough starting pitching to make the World Series this year. If you dont have the horses to win big, then IMHO, sell.

 

This team is prime for selling:

 

1. Chacin: If he continues to pitch well, he could bring a haul. I don't see many top end pitchers on the market this year. I really think many would be surprised with the return.

 

2. Grandal: He's not Lucroy from a few years ago, but he would bring at least one top notch prospect.

 

3. Hader: Excellent sell high candidate. With many years of control, you are talking the Ken Giles return from a few years ago.

 

4. Moose: Not going to bring a haul, but could at least bring back a Brett Phillips.

 

5. Anderson: If he pitches well someone might be interested. doubt he brings back a haul though.

 

6. Thames. I think someone would bite on him as a pinch hitter, although I think he would be more of a salary dump with little return.

 

As others have stated, if the Brewers sell they will not be in rebuild mode.

 

Instead it will be more of an Athletics mode. Churn some useful players to re-stock the system. Then come back and try to compete in 2020.

 

If trading Moose only gets a Brett Phillips, please no! Phillips is currently in the minors hitting .186 after a disastious KC stint last year. His days of being a "good" prospect are long gone. Right now he's holding on by a thread. I don't think Grandal would bring nearly as much as you think. Big contract and a FA at the end of the year usually doesn't get much for a catcher. No sense in trading Anderson if he isn't going to bring much in return. Chacin is a maybe, but he isn't good enough to bring a lot because he's a FA in 2020 and would be a rental. You're right about Thames. He would be a salary dump only. Stearns isn't going to trade Hader.

[Brew crew 92]

This thread is hard to read thru with the crew so obviously a big time contender and there being a .008 % chance of us selling anyhow. I wonder if the dodgers or astros fan sites have a sellers thread? But continue on......

[owbc]

[clancyphile]

At this point, I could see the Crew selling one of Thames/Shaw/Aguilar to make room for Hiura this year.

 

My hope would be that it is Thames who gets moved, but it could easily be Aguilar or Shaw, maybe for a return akin to Adam Lind's (Shaw and Aguilar would have more control than Lind).

 

EDIT: Moustakas would stick around, with an $11 million mutual option, with Erceg as his replacement. Moustakas, though, might end up a viable bench option later in the 2020 season.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

At this point, I could see the Crew selling one of Thames/Shaw/Aguilar to make room for Hiura this year.

 

My hope would be that it is Thames who gets moved, but it could easily be Aguilar or Shaw, maybe for a return akin to Adam Lind's (Shaw and Aguilar would have more control than Lind).

 

EDIT: Moustakas would stick around, with an $11 million mutual option, with Erceg as his replacement. Moustakas, though, might end up a viable bench option later in the 2020 season.

 

Clancy, you know that mutual options are very, very rarely ever exercised. It's simply a way for cost-conscious teams to defer money to the next year's payroll. Moose is in essence on a one-year deal.

[clancyphile]

At this point, I could see the Crew selling one of Thames/Shaw/Aguilar to make room for Hiura this year.

 

My hope would be that it is Thames who gets moved, but it could easily be Aguilar or Shaw, maybe for a return akin to Adam Lind's (Shaw and Aguilar would have more control than Lind).

 

EDIT: Moustakas would stick around, with an $11 million mutual option, with Erceg as his replacement. Moustakas, though, might end up a viable bench option later in the 2020 season.

 

Clancy, you know that mutual options are very, very rarely ever exercised. It's simply a way for cost-conscious teams to defer money to the next year's payroll. Moose is in essence on a one-year deal.

 

I know they are rarely exercised, but in the case of Moose... I think it could be.

 

Ideally, the Crew moves Thames this year, and has a Moustakas-Arcia-Hiura-Shaw/Aguilar infield by the end of the year. In 2020, it becomes a Shaw-Arcia-Hiura-Moustakas/Aguilar infield, with the option of moving either Moose or Shaw to make room for Erceg.

[MrTPlush]

Big time sellers this deadline

 

 

 

Of prospects