Sellers at the Deadline?

[Jopal78]

I know its kind of tongue in cheek since its May 2nd, but the 2019 Brewer offense is far from dynamic in terms of runs scored (156). Half the teams in the NL have 149 or more runs scored.

 

Meanwhile the pitching staff is now dead last in the league in terms of runs allowed with 172 and only the Mets have allowed more than 150.

 

But more importantly I don't see where the needed improvement comes from? I assume Chacin will pitch better, but Peralta, Burnes are not merely rookies taking lumps as they learn on the job, they're going out there and handing the team an automatic loss. Then the collection of Barnes, Wilson, Wilkerson, Hart, Jackson, Petricka, and Houser have pitched 55+ innings or, put another way, over six games worth of innings with mostly terrible results.

 

Nelson isn't even currently pitching so there is no timetable for his return, let alone the expectation that he will be the same pitcher he was before a significant shoulder injury. Nor are their any arms with nothing left to prove at AAA.

 

So maybe last year was a fluke, and the Brewers go back to rebuilding come July.

[RobDeer 45]

There is a chance we'd be sellers but we wouldn't be in "rebuild" mode. I could see us dropping guys like Moose or Yaz if we are out of it. Of course any pitchers we could get rid of. Braun???? Ha. But we wouldn't be getting rid of our core for the coming years to start over.

[RollieTime]

There is a chance we'd be sellers but we wouldn't be in "rebuild" mode. I could see us dropping guys like Moose or Yaz if we are out of it. Of course any pitchers we could get rid of. Braun???? Ha. But we wouldn't be getting rid of our core for the coming years to start over.

 

This. Grandal would be traded and Moose would be another option to be moved. Braun isn’t going anywhere, Shaw, Cain, and Yelich are all staying. Arcia could maybe be a trade candidate if the price is right. Otherwise I don’t see too many guys on the move.

[owbc]

How about we wait until they play the easy part of their schedule?

 

I believe we will see continued roster tinkering regardless of record and history suggests that Stearns is good at making incremental improvements.

[3and2Fastball]

I posted this in the IGT today so I apologize for the duplicate post but thought it applicable here:

 

I'll admit I've been really down on this team in the last few weeks, however looking at the parity in the NL this season, I think they'll be in playoff contention all year. I trust they'll upgrade the pitching staff at the trade deadline (hopefully not sacrificing Hiura or Ray). Is this pitching staff frustrating? Of course, however just about every NL team has a glaring weakness at times...

[coolhandluke121]

Wouldn't rule it out. There are too many good teams in the NL to get away with being mediocre. The downside of so much parity is that there are so many teams you have to leapfrog in the standings. There's a huge difference between being, say, 4 games behind one team for the last wild card and 4 games behind four different wild card chasers.

 

I like this team and would be more inclined to trade a prospect or two as long as you get meaningful help and don't give up too much surplus value but yeah, selling should be an option if this keeps up. And I wouldn't exclude Cain from any trade proposals if it comes time to sell. How much longer is he going to be an acceptable value on his contract? Legging out infield singles has saved his OBP from crashing pretty hard the last two years and that's not a formula for being good in your mid-30's.

[3and2Fastball]

On the flip side, if they are out of it at the trade deadline (again, I don't think they will be) they could certainly get a nice return for Grandal and could get additional prospects for Moustakas, Thames, and possibly Chase Anderson...

[jerichoholicninja]

I agree the team has looked like crap all year but right now they are 1 game-ish out of a Wild Card spot. I really don't know how much worse they realistically could have played this season but yet they still have a top third record in the NL. I really can't see them reaching "sellers" level bad this season unless Yelich and Hader miss big chunks of time.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

On the flip side, if they are out of it at the trade deadline (again, I don't think they will be) they could certainly get a nice return for Grandal and could get additional prospects for Moustakas, Thames, and possibly Chase Anderson...

 

Chacin is a free agent after this season as well. He'd be a prime trade candidate.

[adambr2]

I don't see any really good trade chips on this team. Yelich and Hader obviously but these guys are going nowhere. No one else in the pen is really going to bring back anyone of significance. Grandal, I doubt it. Wilson Ramos was basically given away at the deadline last year and he cost far less than Grandal. There's not usually a big market for rental catchers at the deadline. Contenders don't like messing with that position at the deadline, generally.

 

Moose might be able to bring back close to what we got last year, which isn't much. Chacin is nice but he's just a guy. Rental players who are "just a guy" bring back prospect fodder. You really need to be a star at your position, a Machado or Chapman type deal, to bring back significant value as a rental.

 

I just don't see that on this team. Anyone who is realistically going to be dealt is going to bring back filler.

[3and2Fastball]

Disagree strongly re Grandal. Lucroy brought back Brinson & Ortiz and Grandal is unquestionably more valuable than Lucroy was at that time...

 

Moustakas' value at the trade deadline last year was Jorge Lopez (while not great, still an MLB pitcher) and Brett Phillips.

 

And Chacin isn't a Cy Young candidate but there likely won't be a ton of reliable starting pitchers available at the deadline. Of course it depends on how well he pitches between now and July 30th

[coolhandluke121]

Yeah, I see the point. In this hypothetical scenario, if they're not winning, how many good players could they really have? That's why I mentioned Cain, but more importantly, it's why I would be more inclined to trade a few prospects for immediate help. I don't think it would take much to really transform the bullpen. There's also the issue of some regression to the mean for several of the trade candidates, like Moustakas, Thames, and Grandal.

 

And while I don't overly value Moustakas, Shaw, Aguilar, Thames, Chacin, Chase, Jeffress, Grandal, Davies, or Pina, I do think it's pretty hard to put together a team with this many slightly above average players when you're in a small market and I want the team to build on this opportunity. Even though most of these guys aren't even close to being premium talent as individuals, they are still a pretty talented team.

[shanedog19]

This pitching staff is dreadful. Shocking how many journeymen have taken the mound this year already coming off of an ALCS team. I just don’t see how it turns around short of major internal improvement. I would not have a problem being sellers this year knowing some of the pieces that would look appealing to other contenders.

[adambr2]

Disagree strongly re Grandal. Lucroy brought back Brinson & Ortiz and Grandal is unquestionably more valuable than Lucroy was at that time...

 

At the time we traded Lucroy in 2016, he was one of the best catchers in baseball. His offensive production about matched what Grandal has given us this year, but Lucroy had a good defensive reputation with no stigma attached to his defense. Just as importantly, Lucroy had a massively cheap contract compared to Grandal (about $4M vs. $18M), and even more importantly, Lucroy wasn't a rental -- he had an additional year of control for 2017 at only $5.25M.

 

Furthermore, Jeffress was included in that deal to Texas, who was a very effective closer for us at the time. In no way is Grandal more valuable than Lucroy was at the time nor is he bringing anything close to the 2016 value of Brinson + Ortiz + Cordell.

[HiAndTight]

I know its kind of tongue in cheek since its May 2nd, but the 2019 Brewer offense is far from dynamic in terms of runs scored (156). Half the teams in the NL have 149 or more runs scored.

 

Meanwhile the pitching staff is now dead last in the league in terms of runs allowed with 172 and only the Mets have allowed more than 150.

 

But more importantly I don't see where the needed improvement comes from? I assume Chacin will pitch better, but Peralta, Burnes are not merely rookies taking lumps as they learn on the job, they're going out there and handing the team an automatic loss. Then the collection of Barnes, Wilson, Wilkerson, Hart, Jackson, Petricka, and Houser have pitched 55+ innings or, put another way, over six games worth of innings with mostly terrible results.

 

Nelson isn't even currently pitching so there is no timetable for his return, let alone the expectation that he will be the same pitcher he was before a significant shoulder injury. Nor are their any arms with nothing left to prove at AAA.

 

So maybe last year was a fluke, and the Brewers go back to rebuilding come July.

 

 

Well, when you're struggling, you seldom see it. We didn't see Knebel, Jeffress, Burnes, Woodruff and Perealta all coming up last year and making enormous contributions at times. The young guys you never expect to come and pitch in the playoffs like that, Knebel looked awful and was sent down to AAA at one point...

 

But Aguilar walked...what, 3 or 4 times last night? That's following a 3 hit game and 2 HR's the previous two games. Walks are usually the first indication someone's coming out of a slump. So right theree for one.

 

Braun-Last year he was one of the most unlikely hitters in the game. I'm not giving up on him providing a great deal of improvement yet.

 

Burnes, Peralta, Woodruff, Nelson-

First of all, Nelson is throwing. He was scheduled to start in AAA, but I believe the birth of his child got in the way. But he's up to 90 pitches. Probably a benchmark they wanted to get to with him feeling good before they put him in AAA.

 

Not hard at all to see Burnes, Peralta and Woodruff throwing the ball MUCH better than they have since we've seen it before.

Shaw's put up back to back ~4 WAR seasons. I see every reason he'll improve.

Yelich is out. He's...Yelich.

 

Hirura(last I checked) was hitting ~.330 with an OPS around 1.100. He could certainly help.

 

Gio just got here. I'd expect him to be a stabilizing force in the rotation.

 

It's plausible that Zach Brown, Daniel Brown, Rasmussen get called up at some point this year, the Brewers could sign a Kuechel or Kimbrel.

 

Oh yeah, and then there's the part where they're still just finishing up their toughest month and they're right in playoff contention. And yes, while it's hard to jump over 4 teams in the playoff race with a week or two to go down only a couple games,

 

 

I could absolutely envision this team selling off some players at the deadline. I could see them being 5-6 games out, a looking really bad and concluding that selling Grandal for a couple of young relievers(I'm talking a couple of really talented guys in AAA and maybe AA) or getting a nice lotto ticket for Moose, much more if he continues to perform as he is, and then Chacin, Anderson, maybe even Davies depending on the prospects.

 

But I don't know how you look at how this team is performing now and can't see how they could improve just from within the 25 man, the 40 man or the farm system.

 

 

I will say I don't want to see the Brewers trade away Cain. I don't think a big dropoff is imminent and lets say they did decide to sell. Well, then they'd put Burnes, Peralta and Woodruff right back in the pen, possibly with Zach Brown for a while, Keston would be playing everyday, any number of young prospects could come up and get time in the big leagues.

 

Next year you'd be looking at a formidable lineup with Hirura and possibly a couple of other pieces, the BP would have Wahl, Knebel at some point, Hader, hopefully, Rasmussen, but almost certainly a few guys we have in the system right now. You'd have to hope that the Brewers young arms would have grown from pitching out of the rotation for half a year. We'd have slashed our payroll, so we'd have some money to make some additions. Those would likely be on the pitching side as the position player field is scarce next off-season, but after being in on Kuechel, Kimbrel and pushing our payroll to 130 and willing to go higher, maybe they pick up a starting pitcher. They already look like they have a good pen and a lineup with Aguilar, Hirura, Arcia, Shaw, Yelich, Cain, Braun/Taylor/Gamel/Ray/FA/Trade-whatever.

 

 

The point is it's easy to envision a lot of different scenario's. One I certainly did NOT envision at this point last year was watching game 7 of the NLCS vs the Dodgers with the Brewers arguably out playing the Dodgers in the series for a shot at only the 2nd World Series in franchise history and 1st in my lifetime.

 

 

So I'm sure Stearns will takewhat comes, he probably has contingencies for his contingencies-contingencies. So...we'll all just take it as it comes, we what happens and hopefully if it doesn't go well, regroup next year stronger. Stearns has proven he'll adjust on the fly and figure it out.

[FVBrewerFan]

Behind closed doors, there's got to be a lot of disappointment that Burnes, Peralta, and Woodruff have failed in the starters role and not much behind them. Houser got rocked in his one start, and Brown hasn't been that good in AAA.

 

Far too early to know where this season is headed, but if they are out of it come August, I'm open to selling anyone for the right price. Chacin and Grandal are the most obvious since they're FA after this year, and have enough value to get a nice return. I would not rule out trading Cain, all about what you can get back.

[Oxy]

I've refrained from bringing this up because of all the positive vibes from last year, but we really are in a very good position to sell this year.

 

Chacin, Anderson, Grandal, Moose, and Thames are all obvious candidates.

 

The MOST obvious candidate is Hader. Everybody else will give us middling prospects. Package Hader with a couple other guys and we could really get a haul. Royce Lewis, Alex Kiriloff and Brusdar Graterol sounds good to me.

 

Selling high on bullpen arms is a sound long term strategy.

[3and2Fastball]

I've refrained from bringing this up because of all the positive vibes from last year, but we really are in a very good position to sell this year.

 

Chacin, Anderson, Grandal, Moose, and Thames are all obvious candidates.

 

The MOST obvious candidate is Hader. Everybody else will give us middling prospects. Package Hader with a couple other guys and we could really get a haul. Royce Lewis, Alex Kiriloff and Brusdar Graterol sounds good to me.

 

Selling high on bullpen arms is a sound long term strategy.

 

Strongly agree. Relief pitchers are just so unpredictable. Hader is already showing signs that he might not be as good this year as he was last year. There is no guarantee that he is even going to be good at all in 2020, or healthy... If you can get a haul for Hader this July that can really help in future years, absolutely I'd do that

 

I suspect Mark might meddle and put the kibosh on dealing Hader though. Just a guess

[folly412]

I've refrained from bringing this up because of all the positive vibes from last year, but we really are in a very good position to sell this year.

 

Chacin, Anderson, Grandal, Moose, and Thames are all obvious candidates.

 

The MOST obvious candidate is Hader. Everybody else will give us middling prospects. Package Hader with a couple other guys and we could really get a haul. Royce Lewis, Alex Kiriloff and Brusdar Graterol sounds good to me.

 

Selling high on bullpen arms is a sound long term strategy.

 

See Thornburg, Tyler.

 

Agree that the haul we could get from selling is really appealing. Probably enough to get us right back to the top farm system again. I'd rather be in first place and be adding another star with the objective of winning it all, but standing pat with a mediocre team built to win this year with very questionable longevity would be the worst option of all.

[Ennder]

I've refrained from bringing this up because of all the positive vibes from last year, but we really are in a very good position to sell this year.

 

Chacin, Anderson, Grandal, Moose, and Thames are all obvious candidates.

 

The MOST obvious candidate is Hader. Everybody else will give us middling prospects. Package Hader with a couple other guys and we could really get a haul. Royce Lewis, Alex Kiriloff and Brusdar Graterol sounds good to me.

 

Selling high on bullpen arms is a sound long term strategy.

 

Most of these guys won't bring back anything. But this is just a silly discussion in genera. there is nothing about this season that suggest we are selling other than happening to have 2 bad games in a row that people are overreacting to because they are silly.

[wildcat2237]

I personally don't think this team has enough starting pitching to make the World Series this year. If you dont have the horses to win big, then IMHO, sell.

 

This team is prime for selling:

 

1. Chacin: If he continues to pitch well, he could bring a haul. I don't see many top end pitchers on the market this year. I really think many would be surprised with the return.

 

2. Grandal: He's not Lucroy from a few years ago, but he would bring at least one top notch prospect.

 

3. Hader: Excellent sell high candidate. With many years of control, you are talking the Ken Giles return from a few years ago.

 

4. Moose: Not going to bring a haul, but could at least bring back a Brett Phillips.

 

5. Anderson: If he pitches well someone might be interested. doubt he brings back a haul though.

 

6. Thames. I think someone would bite on him as a pinch hitter, although I think he would be more of a salary dump with little return.

 

As others have stated, if the Brewers sell they will not be in rebuild mode.

 

Instead it will be more of an Athletics mode. Churn some useful players to re-stock the system. Then come back and try to compete in 2020.

[BruisedCrew]

I've refrained from bringing this up because of all the positive vibes from last year, but we really are in a very good position to sell this year.

 

Chacin, Anderson, Grandal, Moose, and Thames are all obvious candidates.

 

The MOST obvious candidate is Hader. Everybody else will give us middling prospects. Package Hader with a couple other guys and we could really get a haul. Royce Lewis, Alex Kiriloff and Brusdar Graterol sounds good to me.

 

Selling high on bullpen arms is a sound long term strategy.

 

Most of these guys won't bring back anything. But this is just a silly discussion in genera. there is nothing about this season that suggest we are selling other than happening to have 2 bad games in a row that people are overreacting to because they are silly.

 

I don’t think the concerns are based on two bad games in a row. They are based on losing 15 of the last 25 with literally the worst pitching in the NL (and no obvious help on the horizon) and an average offense.

[pacopete4]

I'm not sure why this thread needed to be created a the beginning of May. You could be sellers in just about any year, even in years where there are WS aspirations. We pretty much have 2 1/2 months to play out to see if this is the route we need to go. Creating this thread on May 2nd is just so Brewerfan.net lately all you can do is chuckle.

[JosephC]

This should be in the transactions rumor/proposals forum and have a sister "buyers at the deadline?" thread.

[RobDeer 45]

I don’t think anyone is saying we definitely should be sellers. To me it’s more of a hypothetical. If we are out of it at the deadline, what should we do. Would we sell or stay put. I think most people realize it’s very early. There are some signs that this team could struggle with pitching, so it’s not a bad discussion.