Article On Clutch Hitting

[endaround]

In general all players hit better with men on 1B. so anytime you have a 1st and 3rd situation you'd expect an uptick in hitting. Second BA is a bad measure because how it treats Sac flies.

[TerraceReserved]

If anyone hasn't read Baseball Between the Numbers, I highly suggest it, for this subject, and countless others. Tere's a full chapter on clutch hitting, and essentially it proves that isn't very much of it. For example, David Ortiz is praised for his clutch hitting, but he really was only clutch for 2 seasons. ('00 and '05) The rest of his seasons his clutch rating was near 0. (leauge average)

 

The formula BP uses for clutch makes a lot more sense than simply using RISP or the 7th inning 1 run rule. They define it as WinEx - LMLVW. WinEx being Win Expectantcy and LMLVW being Leveraged Marginal Lineup Value Wins. Both of those would take a long time to explain and if I tried it would be uber confusing, so I won't even try. But if you want to read more into the subject, the article in the book is very good.

[RoseBowlMtg]

Terrace it appears the description of clutch is up for debate. The 6 great players I mentioned earlier all hit better with risp which created more runs for their teams if they didn't thus is clutch imo. I will dig into BP for what you suggest for some fun reading but saying there isn't much to it means there isn't a difference in

 

......Aaron.....Brett.....Carew......Yount......Molitor...Simmons

 

risp: ...321......307.....339..........293........327.........299

 

none on:.293.......297......316.........277........299........272

 

these numbers. If Simmons hit .272 with risp he would not have led all catchers in RBI's. How can that be blown off as "there isn't much to it"?

[sbrylski]

these numbers. If Simmons hit .272 with risp he would not have led all catchers in RBI's. How can that be blown off as "there isn't much to it"?

Most people will agree that there is such a thing as clutch hitting, but generally many will say it can only be evaluated in retrospect. Simmons was a "clutch" hitter during his career, we can see this by looking at his numbers. Geoff Jenkins was a clutch hitter in 2006. However, it is very rare to see a large difference in one's career "clutch" numbers and one's "non-clutch" numbers. It is also incredibly impossible to predict because nearly every players "clutch" stats even out throughout their career.

 

Put this way it makes a lot of sense: If a player does well in "clutch" situations, why doesn't he do that well all the time? Are you saying Ted Simmons didn't try as hard when nobody was on base?

 

Hell, you could make a case that all players who seemingly do well in the "clutch" are actually just players who are lazy and don't try hard all the time.

 

Its a never-ending debate.

 

[rluzinski]

Second BA is a bad measure because how it treats Sac flies.

 

Aaron had a .308 BA if you treated all his SF as outs. Did he purposely hit flyballs with a runner on 3B and less than 2 outs? I suspect he just hit a lot of flyballs in general.

[RoseBowlMtg]

Stats are a wonderful and interesting animal isn't it. I found Brad Hawpe's numbers interesting after being mentioned last night. Brad Hawpe had 66 two out RBI's! Say what you will but that is very impressive imo.

 

Hawpe: ba risp, h/ab, RBI's, ba 2 out risp

2005: .191, 21-110, 23, .292

2006: .230, 35-152, 27, .266

2007: .337, 55-163, 66, .377

 

 

Compare this to the Brewers:

 

Prince: .278, 55-198, 35, .220

Braun: .318, 55-173, 37, .333

Hart: .313, 52-166, 35, .322

Weeks: .180, 20-111, 8, .130

Hardy: .216, 33-153, 26, .271

Hall: .250, 38-152, 24, .265

Jenkins: .259, 38-147, 18, .233

Estrada: .266, 41-154, 22, .190

 

Whichever way you want to look at this what if Prince would have hit .377 with 2 outs risp like Hawpe? Could that have made up the two game difference? Hawpe the #6 hitter knocked in 66 runs with two outs while Braun led the Brewers with 37 in 10 more AB's. Call it abnormal or freakish but if a Brewer would have done what Hawpe did could that have made a 2 game difference? Interesting production by a hitter not mentioned much on the hottest team in baseball.

[TooLiveBrew]

I'd say the RBI total has more to do with the Rockies' .354 team OBP, best in the NL. The Crew managed only .329, good for 11th of 16. The average, though, as you mentioned, is impressive. Iirc, BA w/RISP is something that tends to fluctuate from year to year - and this would lead me to guess that BA w/RISP & 2 out would too.

[homer]

I haven't read through the entire thread so this may have been touched on, but I think comparing BA with RISP to BA with no one on isn't exactly a great measure of clutch vs. non clutch. There are so many variables that aren't accounted for - namely if no one is one and there are two outs there is little doubt a pitcher wouldn't give a good hitter anything to hit, what was the hitters average with men on but not in scoring position..etc.etc.

[RoseBowlMtg]

homer I understand your take that ba with risp is not the get all but when comparing that stat btwn players tells more than btwn having no one on and runners on. For example if Prince would have hit what Hawpe hit:

 

2 out with risp

 

...........AB,H, 2B, 3B, HR, RBI,BB, K, BA, bapop, sops+

 

Hawpe: 69, 26, 7, 0, 5, 49, 19, 16, .377, .438, 220

Prince: 50, 11, 3, 0, 1, 15, 18, 10, .220, .256, 108

 

Prince knocked in a run per ab 30%

Hawpe knocked in a run per ab 71%

 

If Prince would have hit at a .377 clip he would have had 8 more hits with 11 more RBI's plus keeping the inning alive for possible more runs. If Prince would have knocked in runs at a 71% clip while hitting only .220 he would have knocked in 20 more runs.

 

2 games difference? Yes and we are comparing an MVP candidate to Brad Hawpe who got little fanfare but is in the World Series because I believe his 66 rbi's with 2 outs risp made the difference in at least one game.

 

Plain and simple if our best player had hit like Brad Hawpe the Brewers might still be playing like Hawpe's team is.

[TooLiveBrew]

If Prince would have hit at a .377 clip he would have had 8 more hits with 11 more RBI's

 

RBM, you simply can't infer this. You're comparing two different teams with two different OBPs. You're correct that a higher BAw/RISP will result in more RBI, but isn't that logical? Hawpe had more RBI due to the fact that he hit better with RISP, and had more opportunites w/RISP (or 2 out w/RISP, etc.).

 

If Prince would have knocked in runs at a 71% clip while hitting only .220 he would have knocked in 20 more runs.

 

Isn't it apparent why Hawpe's higher BA in such situations coupled with more opportunites in such situations leads to a higher rate of RBI? Prince would likely not have been able to drive in runs at such a percentage with such a low BA. Hawpe has nearly 20 more ABs in your sample - doesn't that jump out at you as a warning sign?

 

Plain and simple if our best player had hit like Brad Hawpe the Brewers might still be playing like Hawpe's team is.

 

What about the composite totals of the season? Prince's overall dominance in the overall totals is worth far more than any edge Hawpe has in one specific situation. If you comprised a list of RBI with less than two outs (and perhaps with runners not in scoring position), Prince would beat the crap out of Hawpe. What conclusion would that lead us to?

 

RBI is a product of a player's teammates' ability to get on base more than it is a player's ability to hit in a specific situation. Could Prince performing better in the 2 out, RISP situation have led to more wins? Absolutely. But Hawpe hitting better in other situations (a la Fielder) would have led to more wins for Colorado, too.

[endaround]

Yes if Prince was as lucky as Hawpe the Brewers might have won more games. Is that really something to care about though?