Extending Moose

[clancyphile]

I'd really hate to have a .270 hitter that hits 30-35 hrs

 

He has hit .270 once and has hit 30+ homers once. I do find it pretty concerning he has a .309 OBP for his career and his ungodly year (2019 so far) his OBP is .337. That is pretty darn bad. Sure not a huge concern when he is hitting like he has so far, but betting on that to continue is pretty risky and wishful.

 

Can he actually consistently hit .270 or hit 30+ homers....his career track record would say definitely not. And his career started at 23 for a full season and he is now in season 30.

 

The other thing is... if he continues at this sort of pace, Moose will have hit at least 28 homers in the last three years. In the last five, it has been 22 or more in 4 out of 5 (2016 was injury-shortened).

 

OBP skills are not as good as some others, but he's hit .270 or better 3 out of 5 years. OPS+ has been 107 or better the last five years.

 

Put it this way, I think Moustakas is a known quantity, who gets a boost playing at Miller Park. I'd be comfortable exercising the mutual option in 2020, and then extending him for 2021 and 2022 at 2/$25 million.

[adambr2]

Can we please just drop the mutual option thing? It has about a .1% chance of being exercised. It's just a 3M dollar deferment, nothing more.

[Lathund]

I'm not real current on modern statistics but batting average is very far down on the list of things I care much about. I'll take a .250 hitter with a .350 OBP any day over a .275 hitter with a career .310 OBP. Moose is having a very nice season; unfortunately long-term he has not shown a real strong ability to get on base.

 

I personally think you're a bit low on the value of batting average. A single is significantly more valuable than a walk. The 2 lines you put down, in my opinion are pretty close to similar value. The single scores a guy from 2nd, or moves a guy from 1st to 3rd.

 

Singles aren't really on average *that* much more valuable, simply because a large proportion of plate appearances come with no one on base, when they're worth the same. What's really missing though, is power. If the extra points of AVG are all singles, then the stat line with the higher OBP is a lot more valuable. One way to look at it would be to look up the linear weights for walks vs singles and go from there.

 

Another, less accurate but perhaps simpler, way is to simply look at OPS. If all the extra hits (i.e the difference between the .250 and .275 batting averages) are singles, then the first stat line would have a 40 points higher OBP but a 25 point lower SLG, for an OPS 15 points higher. If all the extra hits were doubles, the first stat line would still have a 40 points higher OBP, but a 50 point lower SLG and thus a 10 points lower OPS. As 1 pt of OBP is worth more than 1 pt of SLG, one would have to take that into account as well to find the exact breakeven point for XBH, but I'm way too tired for that right now.

 

Or in other words, give me the .350 OBP in most cases. But one really needs .SLG or .ISO as well in order to judge properly.

[rickh150]

I really hope the Crew can keep this guy on a 3 year extension that lines up with Yelich and Cain, further strengthening our window to compete through 2021 or so. I'll take this news over almost any deal over the next few days.

Perhaps that would be my strategy:

Broach the idea to Moose to extend him (3 years 45 mill). Use the deadline to maybe put a little pressure on Moose to stay in Milwaukee.

If he doesn't want it, look to move him and a Brewers top 10 prospect or two for a controllable pitcher (Bauer?).

If this gets done, Shaw hits versus righties, and Hernan takes on his role again versus lefties....

[rickh150]

Also, I can't see Grandal getting moved... too big of drop off if we are still serious about competing.

[pacopete4]

I’d rather see if Moustakas can’t get another deal that saddle us with him through the age of 34. He’s solid and has had a nice year but that doesn’t seem smart.

[Brewcrewin07]

Also, I can't see Grandal getting moved... too big of drop off if we are still serious about competing.

 

+1000

[Jopal78]

Why would Moustakas take a 2 or 3 year deal? He’s 30 years old, it’s probably his last chance at a long term deal, so I’d imagine he’ll ask for 5 years and sign with the first team that offers him 4.

 

Here’s a guy who has already left tens of millions of dollars on the table and has played for cut rate pay the least two years. I’m positive he will be looking for as much money/years as he can find with his third trip through free agency.

 

Therefore, the strategy is to get him for 2-3 years, it’s just not going to happen unless his market bottoms out and he’s looking for a contract in Late January.

[CheezWizHed]

Didn't he try to get a long-term deal the last two years? Seems like 2-3 years is the new "long-term" for any 30+ non-superstar player.

[rickh150]

Didn't he try to get a long-term deal the last two years? Seems like 2-3 years is the new "long-term" for any 30+ non-superstar player.

 

If I'm in his position with this scenario, I'd take the 3year 45 mil deal. He hasn't gotten the big deal yet the last two years (can't emphasize that enough), can play on a competitive team with MVP talents, and now has his best contract in his 30's.

[Montezuma]

Hmmmmm extend Moose and play him at first base... Interesting and thought provoking.

[rickh150]

Hmmmmm extend Moose and play him at first base... Interesting and thought provoking.

 

Or 2B or 3B...

[clancyphile]

Didn't he try to get a long-term deal the last two years? Seems like 2-3 years is the new "long-term" for any 30+ non-superstar player.

 

If I'm in his position with this scenario, I'd take the 3year 45 mil deal. He hasn't gotten the big deal yet the last two years (can't emphasize that enough), can play on a competitive team with MVP talents, and now has his best contract in his 30's.

 

At 3/45, I'd take Moose. I'd try to get Grandal to something similar - and lock in a window through 2022.

[endaround]

Hmmmmm extend Moose and play him at first base... Interesting and thought provoking.

 

 

Thames wRC+ 119: Not going to pick up that option! Not worth $6.5 million!

 

Moustakas wRC+ 119: Let's sign him at $15 million per year to play 1B!

[Outlander]

Could do both with Thames at first and Moose at 3B with potentially moving Moose to 1B. But really I don't know if there is a good 3B replacement down the road so having a solid player there for the rest of the Yelich years isn't necessarily a bad thing. Should be easier to find a decent 1B in 2021.