Extending Moose

[TURBO]

The problem is, this isn't a recent thing. I think from all the all star hype he received, it seems to have messed him up in a major way. He has been absolute garbage since the all star game.

[rickh150]

I wouldn't give up on Aguilar. He is lost now, but he will get chances.

 

Umm...... yeah, he now has more HRs than last April.

[Brew crew 92]

I wouldn't give up on Aguilar. He is lost now, but he will get chances.

 

Umm...... yeah, he now has more HRs than last April.

 

Good call !!

[long ball]

I like Moustakas just fine. He's not a player who really warrants a multi year deal according to the market though. Moving him to first doesn't make sense because you can get a guy who hits as well for him at first base for about $2mm on the FA market the past few years.

 

It might make some sense to exercise the mutual option next year depending on how things go and how Hiura does this year, but beyond that I wouldn't expect any time of extension

[clancyphile]

Isn't Thames option for next year like 7.5 million? Why not just exercise that? Thames takes a lot of walks, and even when not hitting, usually carries a decent OBP. I guess I just see Thames upside as slightly higher than Moose's, if all we're going to do is put Moose at 1B.

 

Moose offers a bit more positional versatility - handling 2b pretty well this year, plays third base, and has some experience at first.

 

Thames is really a 1B/DH who can play a corner OF spot in theory...

 

Honestly, I'd exercise Moose's option, and have him learn to play LF/RF in spring training 2020.

[HiAndTight]

Isn't Thames option for next year like 7.5 million? Why not just exercise that? Thames takes a lot of walks, and even when not hitting, usually carries a decent OBP. I guess I just see Thames upside as slightly higher than Moose's, if all we're going to do is put Moose at 1B.

 

Moose offers a bit more positional versatility - handling 2b pretty well this year, plays third base, and has some experience at first.

 

Thames is really a 1B/DH who can play a corner OF spot in theory...

 

Honestly, I'd exercise Moose's option, and have him learn to play LF/RF in spring training 2020.

 

 

That just does not make sense. He's not a good enough hitter to warrant a corner OF spot before you take into account that he'd likely be awful defensively out there. And while I know you have....lets just say unique opinions on where we should play people, preventing runs is pretty important. I see no reason to put a .300 OBP bat out in LF or RF. I'd feel more confident pocketing 10-12 million and going with Corey Ray or Tyrone Taylor as Braun's backup or as the starter and then if necessary finding someone in the season to play there. That's not difficult. Corner OF's are probably just about the easiest part of your team to acquire.

[HiAndTight]

 

The Aguilar situation is a lot like the Thames situation last year. Hopelessly lost at the plate and CC is unable to send him down to work on his swing and timing. I think Stearns' backup plan at 1B next year is Shaw if both Thames and Aguilar don't work out. He'll re-sign Moose and put Shaw at 1B possibly using Braun as the RH against lefties.

 

 

He's lost at the plate, but I don't think it's anything like Thames from last year. His strikeouts are DOWN. It's rare that a guy like him is making more contact and struggling this badly.

 

Without looking, I would just assume his exit velocity is way down, he's popping a lot more balls up or rolling over a lot more balls. His BABIP is .167, so he's probably better than his stats suggest, but I wouldn't expect him to have a high BABIP with how he's been hitting the ball.

 

And this is the most confounding thing to me. He's got such a simple, smooth stroke, he can shorten up and still hit for power...he just doesn't seem like a guy who when he's staying within himself and not trying to hit everything out, would go through these sustained slumps.

 

 

 

I'm gonna predict from May-End of the year he hits .280 with a OPS in the upper .800's. I just think he's too talented as a hitter to be this bad. I know I'm in the vast minority here. I just hope he's given time though...

 

Should have said from here on. Lost out on a 3 hit game! Hopefully the start of something though.

[wntrtxn21]

Isn't Thames option for next year like 7.5 million? Why not just exercise that? Thames takes a lot of walks, and even when not hitting, usually carries a decent OBP. I guess I just see Thames upside as slightly higher than Moose's, if all we're going to do is put Moose at 1B.

 

Moose offers a bit more positional versatility - handling 2b pretty well this year, plays third base, and has some experience at first.

 

Thames is really a 1B/DH who can play a corner OF spot in theory...

 

Honestly, I'd exercise Moose's option, and have him learn to play LF/RF in spring training 2020.

 

 

That just does not make sense. He's not a good enough hitter to warrant a corner OF spot before you take into account that he'd likely be awful defensively out there. And while I know you have....lets just say unique opinions on where we should play people, preventing runs is pretty important. I see no reason to put a .300 OBP bat out in LF or RF. I'd feel more confident pocketing 10-12 million and going with Corey Ray or Tyrone Taylor as Braun's backup or as the starter and then if necessary finding someone in the season to play there. That's not difficult. Corner OF's are probably just about the easiest part of your team to acquire.

 

Taylor is looking good at AAA right now; .309/.371 with an .889 OPS. They are trying to get him to take more walks, but he will deserve a real look soon. Ray is playing his way out of the picture and probably going to be sent back to AA once he gets off the IL. Hitting .170/.250 with 24 Ks in only 52 ABs he is over matched and struggling again. Currently Gamel is doing a pretty good job for CC as Braun's replacement. .265/.379 is not bad for a backup OF. His whiffs are a concern, but he has done well in clutch situations and plays a much better defense than Braun.

[coolhandluke121]

Moose plays a solid 3B and is even playing 2B now, so a replacement argument is valid in valuing him over Thames. He's also not so all-or-nothing. But yeah, if anyone is talking about cutting Thames and moving Moose to 1B, that can be summarily dismissed for the time being.

[Fear The Chorizo]

I'd actually consider Moose on a reasonably team friendly extension (~2 years, $25M) if it meant trading Shaw to make way for Hiura in 2020. I'm trying not to view Shaw's poor start to 2019 as the primary reason for this - tough to ignore it though. Shaw is a streakier offensive player than Moose, but having to ride though those lows in the middle of the order is frustrating. Plus, I feel like Moose is a much better defensive 3B than Shaw is. Now that Shaw is getting more expensive through arbitration, if Moose is open to an extension it may be a good option if they can find a time to sell high on Shaw before opening day 2020.

 

Of course, you could always move Shaw over to 1B, extend Moose to play 3rd, call up Hiura, and roll with a Shaw/Aguilar 1B platoon next year, too...

[OnTheBlack]

I'd actually consider Moose on a reasonably team friendly extension (~2 years, $25M) if it meant trading Shaw to make way for Hiura in 2020. I'm trying not to view Shaw's poor start to 2019 as the primary reason for this - tough to ignore it though. Shaw is a streakier offensive player than Moose, but having to ride though those lows in the middle of the order is frustrating. Plus, I feel like Moose is a much better defensive 3B than Shaw is. Now that Shaw is getting more expensive through arbitration, if Moose is open to an extension it may be a good option if they can find a time to sell high on Shaw before opening day 2020.

 

Of course, you could always move Shaw over to 1B, extend Moose to play 3rd, call up Hiura, and roll with a Shaw/Aguilar 1B platoon next year, too...

 

 

The past two years Shaw's line;

.258.347/497.844 OPS

 

Moose-

255/.322/.474 .796 OPS, and that's with his hot start to the year with an OBP about 60 points above normal.

 

Shaw has posted WAR's of 4.1 and 3.9 the last two years, is 2 years younger and cheaper. Moose had one season with a 4 WAR when he was 25, 7 years ago now.

 

If we're trying to compete, I don't think signing Moose for 25 million over 2 years is a better option than riding with Shaw who's only entering arbitration next season. I mean...unless we're getting someone back who can help out immediately, what is the point? If feels like a net loss.

[rickh150]

An extension still sounds good to me, especially with Shaw and Aguilar struggling... Then again, if we had a choice of Moose or Grandal, I'd take Grandal with Hiura hopefully picking up Moose's slack if he leaves.

[Madhawk23]

Extend Moose, then move Shaw to 1B (played there pretty well at times late last year). We'd still need to figure out what we are going to do long term at the catcher position beyond this year - at least until either Henry/Feliciano are ready.

[brewmann04]

I think we going keep both MOOSE and Grandal

[tmwiese55]

Resigning Moose does kind of seem like the logical fix to the 1B issue after this year. We can point to years of data and all that is not that friendly to Moose, I've been one to do it in regards to OBP, but watching games this year you can see a clear improvement in his approach to hit the ball opposite field better and with more sting to it. IDK if it's bearing out in any spray charts or anything, but compared to last year's seeming dead pull or pop ups his approach seems drastically better so his uptick in performance could be sustainable (not the 50 HR pace of course though).

[OldHeidelberg]

He is obviously a good fit for Miller Park so has more value to us than many teams. Seems like a guy who wants to be here and I think works out with Braun and Yelich in southern Cal during the off season. As someone above suggested if he would do 2/24 right now they should do it, maybe even 3/36.

[MrTPlush]

Resigning Moose does kind of seem like the logical fix to the 1B issue after this year.

 

What if he falls back to reality? Then we have an overpriced 1B who isn't even good for the position. People think someone is terrible when they OPS .850 over there (Thames).

 

Extending Moose sounds like a way to continue our disappoint for years. Small sample improvements are dangerous. Aguilar looked like some new and improved hero over there most of last year and that surely didn't translate long term.

[tmwiese55]

Resigning Moose does kind of seem like the logical fix to the 1B issue after this year.

 

What if he falls back to reality? Then we have an overpriced 1B who isn't even good for the position. People think someone is terrible when they OPS .850 over there (Thames)

 

Well I was more figuring that Shaw would move to 1B and moose back to 3B. Not picking up Thames option partially pays for the contract of Moose, note I'm not a Thames basher at all as he's been fine. If you lose Moose might as well just keep Thames at the relatively low cost (assuming he does roughly what he's doing now for rest of year). And really Moose back to reality is still competent consistent MLB player. But yes of course it comes down to price on whether you do it. I simply meant the guys on your team already, good relationships with the team, hasn't been offered big contracts elsewhere, and you have this need next year (maybe even two needs if Shaw doesn't rebound). Just seems logical to try and keep him around rather than trying to find someone else. Hopefully it works financially to do it. But if someone offers him a 4/60 or something like that you just have to walk away.

[mlloyd10]

I'd really hate to have a .270 hitter that hits 30-35 hrs

[MrTPlush]

I'd really hate to have a .270 hitter that hits 30-35 hrs

 

He has hit .270 once and has hit 30+ homers once. I do find it pretty concerning he has a .309 OBP for his career and his ungodly year (2019 so far) his OBP is .337. That is pretty darn bad. Sure not a huge concern when he is hitting like he has so far, but betting on that to continue is pretty risky and wishful.

 

Can he actually consistently hit .270 or hit 30+ homers....his career track record would say definitely not. And his career started at 23 for a full season and he is now in season 30.

[mlloyd10]

2015-current, .268 hitter average 35 hrs per 162 games.

[MrTPlush]

2015-current, .268 hitter average 35 hrs per 162 games.

 

I don't care for his homerun total in 162 games unless you are telling me he is going to play 162 games. Nor do I really care for his torrid start to the year to be added like that. I would rather see that total at the end of the year.

 

Not saying he can't or won't be good...or that he hasn't magically improved overnight...but lets not act like it is a sure thing and major regression won't show up. It is probably more likely than him actually being this good long term.

[adambr2]

I'm not real current on modern statistics but batting average is very far down on the list of things I care much about. I'll take a .250 hitter with a .350 OBP any day over a .275 hitter with a career .310 OBP. Moose is having a very nice season; unfortunately long-term he has not shown a real strong ability to get on base.

[KeithStone53151]

I'm not real current on modern statistics but batting average is very far down on the list of things I care much about. I'll take a .250 hitter with a .350 OBP any day over a .275 hitter with a career .310 OBP. Moose is having a very nice season; unfortunately long-term he has not shown a real strong ability to get on base.

 

I personally think you're a bit low on the value of batting average. A single is significantly more valuable than a walk. The 2 lines you put down, in my opinion are pretty close to similar value. The single scores a guy from 2nd, or moves a guy from 1st to 3rd.

 

All that said, not sure I want to extend Moose. Hiura should be the everyday 2b now, but will definitely be there very soon. We have Shaw at 3b, and while he's not as good in my opinion...he's under team control and will be cheaper. And team control/value is the only way we have a chance to compete long term. We can plug the occasional hole with someone like Moose/Grandal, but that might not be the best use of very limited resources. I simply think Moose is going to play his way into a 3/42 type deal this offseason...and I don't know that that's the best use of payroll. Pitching needs to be addressed at some point.

[Oxy]

I'm not real current on modern statistics but batting average is very far down on the list of things I care much about. I'll take a .250 hitter with a .350 OBP any day over a .275 hitter with a career .310 OBP. Moose is having a very nice season; unfortunately long-term he has not shown a real strong ability to get on base.

 

I agree with this if the K rate is the same. I'm wary of low avg., high OBP, high K rate guys as they basically feast on bad pitchers and get owned by good pitchers. Moose is pretty good at making contact as opposed to a Thames. Thames cannot slow his bat down in order to even foul off a borderline pitch, so he just takes it (good strategy for him) resulting in either a BB or a K. It seems like Moose can actually fight off good pitches or even hit them for line drive singles/doubles. That means he'll BB less and K less...but put more balls in play and have more success against guys who can really work the corners.

 

ALSO: this is only from my observations. I'd appreciate it if the more advanced stat keepers could either corroborate or correct my observations.