2019 Green Bay Packers Draft Picks and Discussion

[OnTheBlack]

I don't think it really matters where the Packers had Gary or any player valued. It matters where the general consensus has a guy valued.

 

I think the major issue here is that a large portion of the fan base seems to assume that they know where Gary was valued by the general consensus, which is likely unfair or inaccurate. Mock drafts are often wrong. Reading 20 mock drafts online doesn't make their collective views a 'consensus'.

 

Well right but there are scouts all over the place making anonymous comments (see McGinn's draft preview for one) also you can pretty much tell who isn't going to draft certain guys based on need. It's all the more reason to just gather a ton of picks and let the chips fall where they may. There is so much luck, randomness, and bias involved that you may as well throw a ton of darts at the board and hope one hits bullseye instead of throwing one dart.

 

And for people that might be poo pooing 4th round picks:

"In recent years, the Packers have found standouts such as offensive linemen David Bakhtiari, T.J. Lang, Josh Sitton and defensive lineman Mike Daniels in the fourth round."

 

fin.

 

You're going back a over a decade now. Yeah, they've found some good players. They also got Clay Matthews the last time they traded up, and it's pretty much been confirmed that Savage wasn't going to be there when the Packers picked.

 

Other 4th round picks are J'mon Moore(who I think is a bust already), Vince Biegal(1st pick of the 4th), Carl Bradford, Jerron McMillian(picked in back to back picks with Daniels)...and so on. It is a crap shoot, but how many stories have we heard from GM's when they're done talking about the players they wished they'd have just pulled the trigger on? I believe Wolf didn't pull the trigger on Urlacher OR Ray Lewis. I'm more confident in the Urlacher story as I've heard it more, but the point is if you think a guy's a star, you've got to make sure you get him.

 

Yeah, 4th round fliers can turn into really good players. There are more than just those you mentioned. I think Blake Martinez was a 4th and there are other busts.

[OnTheBlack]

The main reason that he was there was that if anyone mentioned him to the Packers in a mock draft, it was really rare. I remember looking at him, but his size and position (277lb DE) and assumed he was a 4-3 DE and not someone we would consider. I'm also not sure where people are pegging him around #20. A lot of top 100 players rankings had him in the top 10.

 

Sporting News: #4

ESPN: #12

CBS Sports: #9

NFL.com: #10

SI: #4

 

I picked the players in the vote based on the buzz around who was being mocked to the Packers and who we were talking about. Bosa wasn't there either, but if he fell to the Packers, I'd hope they take him...

 

I’ll say it again. There are some people who are actively hunting reasons to not like Gary. Why? I wish I knew. Sometimes I think even they don’t know. But it will be these same people who take every opportunity to point out every little Gary flaw or missed assignment from here until eternity. It’ll be these folks who rush to label him a bust. It’s inevitable and maddening and quite frankly an intellectually dishonest and incompetent way to live life lol. But of course it’s just a football discussion, so live on detractors!

 

I can acknowledge Gary is no sure thing but I saw a scouting service that compared him to Richard Seymour today. Sign me up for a chance at that!

 

It's all stupid. Every draft day analysis. I have opinions, but I know how ignorant those opinions are. We pick a guy, I go and look at what other sites say about him. Nobody has any real idea what the hell they're talking about, so I don't get the complaining either. Why would you not give these guys the benefit of the doubt, especially when there's plenty of reason to do so?

 

My opinions are more position based. Not a fan of picking a Center at #44. Then you see he has 34 inch arms and plays all over. So if he turns into a Braden Smith type draft pick, great. But I don't get how you can be upset about a pass rusher who has measurables on par with Clowney at 12. After QB, what is more important than having good pass rushers? We got a guy who in most years likely would have been drafted much higher.

[OnTheBlack]

I wish it were required to publicize the trade offers declined.

This much should have been certain. Jones, Ferril and Haskins could not have been top 12 in GB's big board. Wilkins, Burns and Sweat along with Gary were still there. Thats trading down to at least 17 and gettin a top 12 value to your board. Realistically how big a difference in numbers would you project vs those 4? On a value stand point they had to grade out overall 0 or worse with the 8picks.

 

You have a pretty serious discrepancy between what you know as fact and what you state as such.

 

Here's a fact. Gary wasn't even listed in our poll for #12. Complete afterthought. Not a single soul would say that's because he was going top 3 or 5. Murray, Bosa, Allen, and Williams were clear top 5 predicts. Prior to Gary being picked: 0 times you seen his name in the thread. Peavey you participated in the poll. Never mentioned Gary being a top 12 choice nor question why he wasn't an option to vote for. Just keep sitting there telling yourself Gary was worth the pick at 12. I'll maintain my questioning of his selection as a fact he won't live up to a #12 selection.

 

 

Oh man...I know people don't like the use of LOL on these boards, but his one literally had me laughing out loud. So because someone omitted him from a poll before the draft that means what? I mean..you're right, that IS a "fact." I just don't think it's a "fact" that has anything to do with anything.

 

I'm just curious, you can shut me up real easily. How many hours did you spend scouting Gary or Savage? I'd assume to have this strong of an opinion, it must be at least double digits.

 

Oh, and what did the Michigan coaches have to say to you? Did you interview him in Indy? Where does your logic lie other than the fact he was omitted from a poll on an off-topic sub-section of a Brewers fan board?

 

 

Not the part in bold, I understood the first time you used the word fact. You stated a fact. A pointless fact, but a "fact" nonetheless. If I'm to read this literally, it SEEMS like you're already declaring he won't live up to his status as a top 12 pick.

So..like I said, just fill in your credentials and let me know how much work you put in before the draft aside from googling "mock drafts."

[Jenkins5]

Fact: Gary won’t live up to #12 because he will have already lived up to a Top 5 pick. Sorry but facts are just facts right? Just like it is a fact Yeli will hit 60 HRs this season...Fact that Bucks will win finals

 

There is no facts on predicting future. Plus what is actually criteria for a #12 pick to live up for expectations? Clearly for some it is going to be he needs to be first ballot Hall of Famer. I think it is helping the team win, being reliable, and capable of making some big moment plays. He is not #1 overall. Really I think he just needs to produce more than Wilkins, Burns, & Sweat... the 3 guys most fans wanted over him at close to his positions. DK’s first long TD I’m sure I will hear all about how he should have been a Packer not remembering he was passed on 61x first. Can’t compare production unless they play similar positions.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I wish it were required to publicize the trade offers declined.

This much should have been certain. Jones, Ferril and Haskins could not have been top 12 in GB's big board. Wilkins, Burns and Sweat along with Gary were still there. Thats trading down to at least 17 and gettin a top 12 value to your board. Realistically how big a difference in numbers would you project vs those 4? On a value stand point they had to grade out overall 0 or worse with the 8picks.

 

You have a pretty serious discrepancy between what you know as fact and what you state as such.

 

Here's a fact. Gary wasn't even listed in our poll for #12. Complete afterthought. Not a single soul would say that's because he was going top 3 or 5. Murray, Bosa, Allen, and Williams were clear top 5 predicts. Prior to Gary being picked: 0 times you seen his name in the thread. Peavey you participated in the poll. Never mentioned Gary being a top 12 choice nor question why he wasn't an option to vote for. Just keep sitting there telling yourself Gary was worth the pick at 12. I'll maintain my questioning of his selection as a fact he won't live up to a #12 selection.

 

This statement is so wrong on so many levels. I totally get questioning the Gary selection, as it is totally open to scrutiny whether adding another edge rusher with a premium pick was really a need, given the signing of two young-ish ones to big money deals, and having another coming off a 10.5 sack season. But not having Gary listed on our poll here was probably an afterthought, as I personally saw him connected to the area where the Packers drafted in many stories and mocks. He certainly wasn't my top choice in that spot, but the guy was a pretty much a top 10 guy in nearly every mock, some early ones even top 5. Was he worth the pick at #12? I'd say yeah, simply because that was the range he was predicted to go at, if not a little earlier (McGinn had him going to Cincy at #11). Drafting him at #12 wasn't a reach at all. But saying that he won't live up to the #12 selection is a straight up fool's errand right now. I think you need to get over the perceived insult that the Packers' draft board didn't line up with yours, because they took who they took, and if we want this team to win, they need several of these guys to show up in a big way.

[pacopete4]

People getting huffy over draft picks are always so funny to me. So many things can happen with these guys. The outcomes are almost endless. Gary has a ton of talent. The Packers liked him. My thought is that we could let it play out on the field and then discuss how good or bad the pick was.

[SeaBass]

Yeah I think it's ok to feel underwhelmed with a pick, or to voice an opinion you'd have liked the team to go a different direction but I don't understand the outright anger and defeatist attitude about how a professional sports team chose to go about using their draft picks.

 

We're fans, we don't know much at all about how teams arrive at their decisions, all we have to go by is what they tell us and I'm sure they're not sharing every little nuance that went into their decision making. We also don't have a lot of history with the reorganized front office under the new GM to really know if we're justified in being skeptical or how much to trust them and let things play out.

 

As far as trading up for Savage, it was a bold move. I can only speak for myself when I say that I had been on the replace TT bus for several seasons and moves like this were one of the reasons why. Not that I feel a GM has to make moves to trade up every year but I want a guy that isn't so crippled with fear that a move won't work out that he won't even take the risk. Gute saw the guy he wanted and went and got him. Say what you want but he's putting himself out there and if it doesn't work out he's going to get a lot of heat over it. I like that he's not backing away from making tough decisions just for some extra job security.

[OnTheBlack]

Yeah I think it's ok to feel underwhelmed with a pick, or to voice an opinion you'd have liked the team to go a different direction but I don't understand the outright anger and defeatist attitude about how a professional sports team chose to go about using their draft picks.

 

We're fans, we don't know much at all about how teams arrive at their decisions, all we have to go by is what they tell us and I'm sure they're not sharing every little nuance that went into their decision making. We also don't have a lot of history with the reorganized front office under the new GM to really know if we're justified in being skeptical or how much to trust them and let things play out.

 

As far as trading up for Savage, it was a bold move. I can only speak for myself when I say that I had been on the replace TT bus for several seasons and moves like this were one of the reasons why. Not that I feel a GM has to make moves to trade up every year but I want a guy that isn't so crippled with fear that a move won't work out that he won't even take the risk. Gute saw the guy he wanted and went and got him. Say what you want but he's putting himself out there and if it doesn't work out he's going to get a lot of heat over it. I like that he's not backing away from making tough decisions just for some extra job security.

 

I totally agree. People have different favorites, but a lot of us wanted a edge rusher and we got a pretty good one.

 

TT was great for a while, but it did feel like that Packers "mystique," the Packer way was losing most meaning the last few years. Thompson had some bad-bad drafts. Losing guys like Finley and Collins hurt, but a good GM can replace them. I wonder how much of the questioning of the current picks have to do with the Randall, Rollins, King, Jones, picks in the 1st and 2nd rounds in recent years. Passing up Watt to get King-who could still be a good player, but hasn't been one yet. Two others who are gone, and the other one is probably in his last year unless he can carve out a bigger role as a nickel backer or something like that in Jones.

 

 

That said, if I was a Giants fan right now, I'd be REAL pissed. I think that's the only team that even fans can sit back and just wonder what the hell they're doing. Daniel Jones at 6? I was hopeful that maybe some team would be so desperate they may trade up to take him 4th, but with Dwayne Haskins and Lock...you pick Jones 6th? And his closest comp is Eli. Peyton's little brother who won two Super Bowls primarily because of Justin Tuck, Usi, Strahan, JPP and the like, but is a AWFUL QB now and the exact type of player teams are moving away from.

 

 

Edit-I meant to say 4th among QB's in the top 12.

[PeaveyFury]

For all of the negative fan reaction, Chad Reuter of NFL.com and MMQB have generally given the Packers' draft very good grades. I'm a firm believer that you can't grade a draft until 3 years later, but take it FWIW.

[OnTheBlack]

For all of the negative fan reaction, Chad Reuter of NFL.com and MMQB have generally given the Packers' draft very good grades. I'm a firm believer that you can't grade a draft until 3 years later, but take it FWIW.

 

 

Now THAT I would say is actually pretty close to fact. I DO know it's almost impossible to evaluate a class before they even have a rookie camp!

 

I guess if you take a kicker in the 1st or pick Daniel Jones 6th(and even there, as dumb as I think that ONE particular move really was, god knows how easy it'd be for me to be proven wrong in 3 years just as I have been with Wentz and Geoff).

[homer]

I don't mind Gary or Savage the players. I wish them lives of peace and fulfillment.

 

My opinion is that GB could have had each of them (or players of similar value) and kept the two fourth-round picks and potentially garnered additional picks. Obviously, I don't know that for certain because I'm not in the war room.

[FVBrewerFan]

People getting huffy over draft picks are always so funny to me. So many things can happen with these guys. The outcomes are almost endless. Gary has a ton of talent. The Packers liked him. My thought is that we could let it play out on the field and then discuss how good or bad the pick was.

 

Well, that's sports. Why predict the Brewers' record this year, or how any players will do? Just let it play out and then discuss. If someone believes, today, the Gary pick was horrible why is it silly to say so? Obviously as time goes on it will become more obvious what kind of player any of these guys will become. But following the draft in various sports and reacting to it is as old as the sport itself.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

People getting huffy over draft picks are always so funny to me. So many things can happen with these guys. The outcomes are almost endless. Gary has a ton of talent. The Packers liked him. My thought is that we could let it play out on the field and then discuss how good or bad the pick was.

 

Well, that's sports. Why predict the Brewers' record this year, or how any players will do? Just let it play out and then discuss. If someone believes, today, the Gary pick was horrible why is it silly to say so? Obviously as time goes on it will become more obvious what kind of player any of these guys will become. But following the draft in various sports and reacting to it is as old as the sport itself.

 

Most predictions are stated as such ... predictions. I think what people are disagreeing with in this case is that the idea that Gary won't live up to the #12 draft position was being presented as a straight out fact.

[homer]

I don't think a prediction by its very nature can be a fact until it actually happens.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I don't think a prediction by its very nature can be a fact until it actually happens.

 

Great Scott ... you are right

 

#BadPopCultureReferenceAlert

[areacodes]

I don't mind Gary or Savage the players. I wish them lives of peace and fulfillment.

 

My opinion is that GB could have had each of them (or players of similar value) and kept the two fourth-round picks and potentially garnered additional picks. Obviously, I don't know that for certain because I'm not in the war room.

 

That is a little bit of back tracking as you definitively called Gary a reach at 12 when there were plenty of “experts” who had him as a top 10 talent. I’m sure there were plenty of “experts” who had him lower too but when I think of a reach, I don’t view that as somebody you might have still been able to snag by trading down a few spots.

 

I also don’t know how realistic the trade down option was at 12 since there wasn’t the huge run on QBs. Heading into the draft I thought we might have the Redskins trying to get ahead of the Dolphins to get Haskins but that was, obviously, not needed.

[Jenkins5]

QB class is huge in top round of draft, if Haskins & Lock would have been in top 11 with Murray & Jones, that pushes two more quality options there. Devin Bush was my #1 realist option. Oliver, Allen my less realistic. When QB class is good & teams needy, opportunities are there for more trades & better talent pushes down to you. Next year has Herbert, Tua, & Fromm looking like top 10 picks Castillo & Easton could easily push upward in 1st round. Shea Patterson is overrated but people tend to like him

[brewcrewdue80]

I don't mind Gary or Savage the players. I wish them lives of peace and fulfillment.

 

My opinion is that GB could have had each of them (or players of similar value) and kept the two fourth-round picks and potentially garnered additional picks. Obviously, I don't know that for certain because I'm not in the war room.

 

This is how I feel about the draft. I'm not angry as someone mentioned, just upset how it transpired. The first 5 picks look like they'll contribute this season. The RB maybe as well. The CB/LB picks I'll just assume as Special Teams help at best. I just said the value side in the draft wasn't there. If you take the trade value points it'd go something like this:

Gary 1200-Even to -200

Savage 924- Even to -124

Jenkins 460- Even to -60

Sternberger 215- +50 to Even

Kiki 31 +35 to Even

 

-88 for 4th round loss. Riley Ridley went to the Bears after what would have been the Packers selection. He was a 3rd round type projection.

 

All told thats -3 to -384 The equivalent of a late 2nd round pick to late 3rd round pick. Which is probably what the value you would have been looking at on trading down from 12 a few spots. Draft Grade C-

[Noche]

I don't mind Gary or Savage the players. I wish them lives of peace and fulfillment.

 

My opinion is that GB could have had each of them (or players of similar value) and kept the two fourth-round picks and potentially garnered additional picks. Obviously, I don't know that for certain because I'm not in the war room.

 

This is how I feel about the draft. I'm not angry as someone mentioned, just upset how it transpired. The first 5 picks look like they'll contribute this season. The RB maybe as well. The CB/LB picks I'll just assume as Special Teams help at best. I just said the value side in the draft wasn't there. If you take the trade value points it'd go something like this:

Gary 1200-Even to -200

Savage 924- Even to -124

Jenkins 460- Even to -60

Sternberger 215- +50 to Even

Kiki 31 +35 to Even

 

-88 for 4th round loss. Riley Ridley went to the Bears after what would have been the Packers selection. He was a 3rd round type projection.

 

All told thats -3 to -384 The equivalent of a late 2nd round pick to late 3rd round pick. Which is probably what the value you would have been looking at on trading down from 12 a few spots. Draft Grade C-

 

I’d bet a years salary that Gute is quite convinced he got immense surplus value from his picks, at least compared to the above self-serving analysis.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I don't mind Gary or Savage the players. I wish them lives of peace and fulfillment.

 

My opinion is that GB could have had each of them (or players of similar value) and kept the two fourth-round picks and potentially garnered additional picks. Obviously, I don't know that for certain because I'm not in the war room.

 

This is how I feel about the draft. I'm not angry as someone mentioned, just upset how it transpired. The first 5 picks look like they'll contribute this season. The RB maybe as well. The CB/LB picks I'll just assume as Special Teams help at best. I just said the value side in the draft wasn't there. If you take the trade value points it'd go something like this:

Gary 1200-Even to -200

Savage 924- Even to -124

Jenkins 460- Even to -60

Sternberger 215- +50 to Even

Kiki 31 +35 to Even

 

-88 for 4th round loss. Riley Ridley went to the Bears after what would have been the Packers selection. He was a 3rd round type projection.

 

All told thats -3 to -384 The equivalent of a late 2nd round pick to late 3rd round pick. Which is probably what the value you would have been looking at on trading down from 12 a few spots. Draft Grade C-

 

I’d bet a years salary that Gute is quite convinced he got immense surplus value from his picks, at least compared to the above self-serving analysis.

 

No kidding! My only response after reading that was WOW.

[HiAndTight]

People getting huffy over draft picks are always so funny to me. So many things can happen with these guys. The outcomes are almost endless. Gary has a ton of talent. The Packers liked him. My thought is that we could let it play out on the field and then discuss how good or bad the pick was.

 

Well, that's sports. Why predict the Brewers' record this year, or how any players will do? Just let it play out and then discuss. If someone believes, today, the Gary pick was horrible why is it silly to say so? Obviously as time goes on it will become more obvious what kind of player any of these guys will become. But following the draft in various sports and reacting to it is as old as the sport itself.

 

Most predictions are stated as such ... predictions. I think what people are disagreeing with in this case is that the idea that Gary won't live up to the #12 draft position was being presented as a straight out fact.

 

 

Yes, stating factually that Gary will not live up to the expectations of the 12th overall pick is absolutely silly.

 

Not liking the pick and having an opinion is fine. I mean..I do think it's a little foolish because we really see such a microscopic amount of what goes into evaluating these players that no matter how many mocks we read, we're all pretty poorly informed, but as an opinion, that's fine.

 

 

But someone just said that in their opinion they could have got Savage and Gary later or players equal to them. Of course even if the Ravens and Raiders say they had Savage as their pick inbetween 30 and 21, we don't KNOW that they would have pulled the trigger(the Raiders a bit more likely given they went with a safety).

 

But a GM's job isn't to get guys who have similar grades on draft day. It's to look at players he thinks are going to be big time impact players and pick them. Taylor Mays was a 6-3 freak at safety who played for Pete Carroll, Earl Thomas, the player I along with many have long believed was the best player on those great Seattle teams ended up going 14th when both had very similar grades. If you believe for one reason or another, this player is going to be great and the other just good....isn't it incumbent upon the GM to make that move?

 

And incidentally, the similarities beween the written reports and the phsyical traits of Thomas and Savage are remarkable.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Yes, stating factually that Gary will not live up to the expectations of the 12th overall pick is absolutely silly.

 

Not liking the pick and having an opinion is fine. I mean..I do think it's a little foolish because we really see such a microscopic amount of what goes into evaluating these players that no matter how many mocks we read, we're all pretty poorly informed, but as an opinion, that's fine.

 

 

But someone just said that in their opinion they could have got Savage and Gary later or players equal to them. Of course even if the Ravens and Raiders say they had Savage as their pick inbetween 30 and 21, we don't KNOW that they would have pulled the trigger(the Raiders a bit more likely given they went with a safety).

 

But a GM's job isn't to get guys who have similar grades on draft day. It's to look at players he thinks are going to be big time impact players and pick them. Taylor Mays was a 6-3 freak at safety who played for Pete Carroll, Earl Thomas, the player I along with many have long believed was the best player on those great Seattle teams ended up going 14th when both had very similar grades. If you believe for one reason or another, this player is going to be great and the other just good....isn't it incumbent upon the GM to make that move?

 

And incidentally, the similarities beween the written reports and the phsyical traits of Thomas and Savage are remarkable.

 

Savage also compares very favorably athletically to Nick Collins. Collins was a tad thicker (roughly 8-10 pounds heavier), but the testing numbers are nearly identical. Collins went to a smaller school in Bethune Cookman, and played a lot of slot CB in college, so his safety play was more of a projection. Savage is much more of a finished product at safety, and played on a bigger stage in college. I loved the Savage pick. I think the Packers may have just found their starting FS for the next 7-8 years.

[Fear The Chorizo]

But someone just said that in their opinion they could have got Savage and Gary later or players equal to them. Of course even if the Ravens and Raiders say they had Savage as their pick inbetween 30 and 21, we don't KNOW that they would have pulled the trigger(the Raiders a bit more likely given they went with a safety).

 

I posted it in the draft thread literally before I saw GB trade up that if the top player on their board at one of their positions of need was still available after pick 20, Gute should move up to go and get him. Then I posted again right after they drafted Savage - Gute made the move up knowing he wanted Savage at safety, and he had to jump over the Raiders' two 1st round picks (24 and 27, I believe) that were ahead of him at 30...because the Raiders would have taken Savage or at least whomever their top safety on their board was at one of those spots. Making the move with Seattle at 21 made the most sense because Seattle was obviously in pick acquiring mode during the early part of the draft. Gute could have easily made that determination during any conversations he had with the Raiders about working a trade up with them swapping a 1st round pick.

[Yount19]

I saw that the Giants were trying to trade to the number 10 spot to grab Gary per Peter King of SI.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Here are Gary's combine #'s compared to another prominent DE/OLB prospect from a few years ago...

 

Gary ???

 

Height 6'4" 6'5"

Weight 280 266

Reach 34 1/8" 34 1/2"

Hands 9 5/8" 10"

 

40 4.58 4.53

bench 26 reps 21 reps

vertical 38" 37.5"

broad jump 120" 124"

3cone 7.26 7.27

20 yd shuttle 4.29 4.43

 

All in all, Gary's performance may be more freakish than that of Jadeveon Clowneys was a handful of years ago considering he's a bigger guy.