2019 Green Bay Packers Draft Picks and Discussion

[HiAndTight]

“Every scout around”, Homer? C’mon, be fair with your analysis. It was a mixed bag on Gary no doubt but he had plenty of fans including his coaches, the Big 10 voting committee and NFL scouts alike. He is more of a post-hype sleeper than “meh”. This also reminds me of when many were willing to give up on Clowney after 2 NFL seasons and now he is a game-wrecker.

 

Also, what scout had Gary on their do not draft list? I hadn’t seen that.

 

I get Gary was not a productive pick to some. Most everyone loved the AJ Hawk pick and were ultimately let down (Hawk was good for a while and I’ll die on that hill lol). Such is life.

 

 

Hawk was very good for a while. Especially as a Will in the 43. IF he'd have been a 2nd rounder, people would have loved him. But at 5 and off-ball backer has to be really really good in order for fans to not hate on him.

 

 

Gary plays hard and is a physical freak. I doubt there was a single team that had him off their draft boards or a team that if they could have wouldn't have at least taken him at the end of the 1st round at least.

 

You assume he's not a high effort guy because...well, he's so big and so athletic, but they played him inside. You see the explosion when he's matched up with just a tackle, but he's usually at least getting doubled intially and or chipped.

 

Michigan's coaches told me all I needed to know when they were incredulous about the negativity surrounding Gary.

[Jenkins5]

To look back in future and think this was a solid to good draft (not great draft but solid one)

1. One of the 2 1st rounders need to be a pro bowl caliber player. Both need to be produce at starter quality level. Gary could be steady as can be like Hawk as long as Savage is Nick Collins like. Gary can be 10+ sack a year force & Savage can be 2018 Ha Ha. Need one to ball out

 

2. Jenkins needs to be a solid starter at 1 of the 3 interior spots. You don’t draft Lineman in 2nd to be swing backups. That is what 4th and up are for.

 

3. Sternberger doesn’t need to be Ertz but can’t be Rodgers. He needs to be reliable receiving threat. Needs to develop blocking to be more complete.

 

5. Keke needs to make team for at least 3 season and provide solid rotational snaps. No one here is counting on him to start & be a force but has to be better than the street FAs like Lancaster we bring in. Quality depth.

 

6a Hollman. Makes team & gives decent rotation depth for at least couple of years. Brown as a udfa played a ton last year & outside of some dumb flags on him... he was reliable when needed. Hollman needs to be that.

 

6b. Dex Williams. Give us 1 or 2 good starts or games to remember you. Don’t be Mays. As a 6th rounder, expectations aren’t to be next starter but find way to get carries & be in mix.

 

7. Make practice squad at least. Wildcard pick. No one expects anything big. Make team as rookie & play special teams. Already met your goal. Anything more is gravy

 

Overall, this draft & value comes from the big 3 Gary, Savage, and Sternberger. How they do will determine how good this draft was. They have most star potential. Jenkins should at worst be reliable swing back up. Keke, Hollman, Williams hopefully can create depth.

 

Give draft a B- as of today. Added depth in all places needed and filled it with guys who are excellent athletes who can grow. Negative is there is plenty of bust concerns or just lack of star power. Last 2 years I think we could hype up draft more but look at 17 which I loved and much of that class hasn’t lived up to anything. King is always hurt, Jones hasn’t stepped up, Adams hasn’t produced, Williams has been solid but not great. Biegel & Yancy gone by year two. Jones has flashes but there are reasons beside stats coaches hesitate to play him. Kofi Mayes Dupree nothing.

[HiAndTight]

To look back in future and think this was a solid to good draft (not great draft but solid one)

1. One of the 2 1st rounders need to be a pro bowl caliber player. Both need to be produce at starter quality level. Gary could be steady as can be like Hawk as long as Savage is Nick Collins like. Gary can be 10+ sack a year force & Savage can be 2018 Ha Ha. Need one to ball out

 

2. Jenkins needs to be a solid starter at 1 of the 3 interior spots. You don’t draft Lineman in 2nd to be swing backups. That is what 4th and up are for.

 

3. Sternberger doesn’t need to be Ertz but can’t be Rodgers. He needs to be reliable receiving threat. Needs to develop blocking to be more complete.

 

5. Keke needs to make team for at least 3 season and provide solid rotational snaps. No one here is counting on him to start & be a force but has to be better than the street FAs like Lancaster we bring in. Quality depth.

 

6a Hollman. Makes team & gives decent rotation depth for at least couple of years. Brown as a udfa played a ton last year & outside of some dumb flags on him... he was reliable when needed. Hollman needs to be that.

 

6b. Dex Williams. Give us 1 or 2 good starts or games to remember you. Don’t be Mays. As a 6th rounder, expectations aren’t to be next starter but find way to get carries & be in mix.

 

7. Make practice squad at least. Wildcard pick. No one expects anything big. Make team as rookie & play special teams. Already met your goal. Anything more is gravy

 

Overall, this draft & value comes from the big 3 Gary, Savage, and Sternberger. How they do will determine how good this draft was. They have most star potential. Jenkins should at worst be reliable swing back up. Keke, Hollman, Williams hopefully can create depth.

 

Give draft a B- as of today. Added depth in all places needed and filled it with guys who are excellent athletes who can grow. Negative is there is plenty of bust concerns or just lack of star power. Last 2 years I think we could hype up draft more but look at 17 which I loved and much of that class hasn’t lived up to anything. King is always hurt, Jones hasn’t stepped up, Adams hasn’t produced, Williams has been solid but not great. Biegel & Yancy gone by year two. Jones has flashes but there are reasons beside stats coaches hesitate to play him. Kofi Mayes Dupree nothing.

 

 

Yeah, I don't want to speculate too much, but TT's speech and ability to convey information to the media on the rare-rare occasions that he did fits with some of the things said about him in articles. The guy is in his 60's and was a 10 year vet at MLB'er. I don't know if that's why, but his later drafts and last, in particular, did not look good.

[Jenkins5]

Im starting to think I’m in minority about being fine with trading 2 4s to move up. I think that if it was Metcalf or some other name pack fans loved, they’d be celebrating in the streets but because Savage was a riser & not household name people are more upset. Packers scouting department clearly felt he was just a star they couldn’t afford to lose. I don’t have information they have but to pay that price.... they had to feel they were getting something special. Don’t think it is irresponsible to become infatuated with 1 player. 1 player can change everything. Our defense with and without Nick Collins..... Seattle with or without Thomas. Special players can transform you. I’d argue it’s irresponsible to identify a player like that & not make sure you get them. Could backfire but it’s those guts that we sat back & complained about with TT for years. He was too scared to risk it all & go for it.

 

Savage is this draft. There is more pressure on him because the cost to get him. He needs to hit. Think Gary at worse (my opinion) is AJ Hawk & just solid as can be. Verse run, very good. Will get his pressures and do many important things to help D but may fail to be sack Ace we hope for.

[PeaveyFury]

Im starting to think I’m in minority about being fine with trading 2 4s to move up. I think that if it was Metcalf or some other name pack fans loved, they’d be celebrating in the streets but because Savage was a riser & not household name people are more upset. Packers scouting department clearly felt he was just a star they couldn’t afford to lose. I don’t have information they have but to pay that price.... they had to feel they were getting something special. Don’t think it is irresponsible to become infatuated with 1 player. 1 player can change everything. Our defense with and without Nick Collins..... Seattle with or without Thomas. Special players can transform you. I’d argue it’s irresponsible to identify a player like that & not make sure you get them. Could backfire but it’s those guts that we sat back & complained about with TT for years. He was too scared to risk it all & go for it.

 

Savage is this draft. There is more pressure on him because the cost to get him. He needs to hit. Think Gary at worse (my opinion) is AJ Hawk & just solid as can be. Verse run, very good. Will get his pressures and do many important things to help D but may fail to be sack Ace we hope for.

 

Honestly, this reminds me a lot of the reaction to Thompson's early (good, probably pre-dimentia) drafts as well. Who the heck is this Collins guy out some tiny school I've never heard of? Jennings from directional Michigan? Trading up to get Clay Matthews' son, a one-year starter at USC who only tallied 4.5 sacks? Where's the production? Guys who don't get to the QB in college won't in the pros!!!

[homer]

 

Michigan's coaches told me all I needed to know when they were incredulous about the negativity surrounding Gary.

 

Has any college coach ever bad mouthed a former player before they were drafted?

[homer]

I don't think it really matters where the Packers had Gary or any player valued. It matters where the general consensus has a guy valued. As an extreme example, maybe GB had Savage ranked #8 overall but they are pretty sure no one else has a top 25 grade on him. Do you take him at #12? No of course not.

 

The Giants took some toad of a QB at #6 because he was "their guy". They probably could have gotten him at like #18 if they wanted to. Washington was obviously going after Haskins.

 

Also going after one guy to fill a need is a very risky proposition. The Packers had holes all over the place and now they are still very thin at tackle, don't have a slot WR, could have used an MLB, etc.

[adambr2]

Also love when fans pretend to know what other teams draft boards are. Up to last month, Gary didn’t look like he would make it past top 10. People can say dumb things like mocks had him here or there. Well mocks also had Haskins top 5, Lock maybe going to Packers at 12. DK as top 15 pick.... all those lineman like Taylor who are mocked in top 10. Mocks are simply guesses based on rumors & smoke screens put out by teams. Loved Wilkins but not enough for me to not see massive upside of Gary. If you are high on a guy and board said he fits value of that pick.... it’s not a reach. If a guy had been mocked as a top 10 pick in loaded DL/Edge class for past year (besides last month) how is it a reach or a move we could have traded down for?

 

Same train of thought. For fans to say Savage would have been there at 30 & we reached with trade to get him... how do you know. Gute said he heard rumblings he was going soon & he was a guy they really wanted. They spend all year studying every detail of every player. They have more sources to know what teams like what guys. Packers saw a guy who could be a Collins like FS. Turns out or busts you have to trust your scouts & board.

 

I agree with all this other than 'he heard rumblings' (Savage) was going soon.

 

There shouldn't be any 'rumblings', or a team's draft room is really failing them. You can look at other team's needs and other moves, but he didn't know. It's an educated guess.

 

I don't like it when a GM becomes enamored with one particular player. Trade-ups are best utilized to go steal a guy at a skill position who fell too far to pass up. (Example: The Redskins moving up 2 spots to get in front of us in 2005 to steal Rodgers over Jason Campbell). Not for grabbing one particular player that you love. It's the 2nd year in a row that Gute has given up pretty good value to move up from the back to the mid-back of the 1st to get "his" guy, and I'm not crazy about this strategy when it involves sacrificing 3rd and 4th round picks on a yearly basis.

 

That said, if Savage goes on to be a perennial Pro Bowl safety I'll gladly eat my words.

 

He traded back last year to net us an additional 1st round pick and then traded back up to get Alexander, a clear hit at this point. Not sure that's the best example.

 

 

And I'm sure rather see the Packers target and get the guy THEY want rather than sit back and watch him get picked like Wolf did with Urlacher for example. More importantly, how is it a sign that your draft room is really failing if you move up because you hear that a guy is going to get picked ahead of where you're picking(a rumor that turns out to be confirmed)? Seems to me that's evidence that your draft room is working.

 

I didn't mean it's a sign the Packers' draft room is failing. I meant a team's draft room is failing them if opponents are able to know ahead of time who they are taking and jump them in the process. Simply put I was saying you just don't really know, I wasn't literally calling any particular team out as having a failed draft room.

[PeaveyFury]

I don't think it really matters where the Packers had Gary or any player valued. It matters where the general consensus has a guy valued.

 

I think the major issue here is that a large portion of the fan base seems to assume that they know where Gary was valued by the general consensus, which is likely unfair or inaccurate. Mock drafts are often wrong. Reading 20 mock drafts online doesn't make their collective views a 'consensus'.

[Noche]

I don't think it really matters where the Packers had Gary or any player valued. It matters where the general consensus has a guy valued.

 

I think the major issue here is that a large portion of the fan base seems to assume that they know where Gary was valued by the general consensus, which is likely unfair or inaccurate. Mock drafts are often wrong. Reading 20 mock drafts online doesn't make their collective views a 'consensus'.

 

Additionally, knowing the general consensus tells you nothing about the low man/high man on any given prospect. Savage’s cumulative rank may have been about 30 but if 3 GM’s had him in their personal top 10, it’s those GM’s you have to beat to the podium to land the guy.

[homer]

I don't think it really matters where the Packers had Gary or any player valued. It matters where the general consensus has a guy valued.

 

I think the major issue here is that a large portion of the fan base seems to assume that they know where Gary was valued by the general consensus, which is likely unfair or inaccurate. Mock drafts are often wrong. Reading 20 mock drafts online doesn't make their collective views a 'consensus'.

 

Well right but there are scouts all over the place making anonymous comments (see McGinn's draft preview for one) also you can pretty much tell who isn't going to draft certain guys based on need. It's all the more reason to just gather a ton of picks and let the chips fall where they may. There is so much luck, randomness, and bias involved that you may as well throw a ton of darts at the board and hope one hits bullseye instead of throwing one dart.

 

And for people that might be poo pooing 4th round picks:

"In recent years, the Packers have found standouts such as offensive linemen David Bakhtiari, T.J. Lang, Josh Sitton and defensive lineman Mike Daniels in the fourth round."

 

fin.

[brewcrewdue80]

Sorry, I think you're too focused on finding a guy at 137 that was projected at xxx, while the Packers were focused on getting the right guys in the 1st round of the draft, when it literally matters hundreds of times more, based on any draft pick value chart. The Packers have indicated that they were able to get a guy at 12 that

they had ranked much higher than that, and that gave them good value. They may have valued drafting a player worth 1700 on their board at 12 with 500 of surplus value more than the lesser points of surplus in the scenario above.

And I'm never a fan of advocating for trades that may or may not have actually existed. What if the best offer to trade back was truly terrible?

 

If that is what is said even higher expectations on Gary. Pro-Bowler quality production or some Scout/Person responsible on Gary being that high has to be fired 2 years from now. As Homer said, you needed to get a feel for what was going to drafted behind you, with team needs. But I guess the counter immediately to that is Wilkins was drafted #13. The 1st round of this draft need to have impact not in the future by this season. And both had better outperform the majority of the players drafted after them that would have fit GB's needs for this season. I feel real good about Savage's chances. Gary? my doubts are warranted. Where is he playing and how often this season? You've now got Lowry, Clark, Daniels, the Smith's, Fackrell, and Adams to all pull snaps from Gary. If he had played LB at Michigan I wouldn't be this upset, but he played on the line and it's going to be a battle to get him plenty of snaps this season. I can be critical of the draft, just like you can support it. Nobody here is in that draft day war room knowing what was what. It's just the general reaction from people around the media wasn't agreeing 100% with his pick.

[PeaveyFury]

Well right but there are scouts all over the place making anonymous comments (see McGinn's draft preview for one) also you can pretty much tell who isn't going to draft certain guys based on need. It's all the more reason to just gather a ton of picks and let the chips fall where they may. There is so much luck, randomness, and bias involved that you may as well throw a ton of darts at the board and hope one hits bullseye instead of throwing one dart.

 

And for people that might be poo pooing 4th round picks:

"In recent years, the Packers have found standouts such as offensive linemen David Bakhtiari, T.J. Lang, Josh Sitton and defensive lineman Mike Daniels in the fourth round."

 

fin.

 

Anonymous comments are still a way of throwing misdirection and false info out there. If you're a guy working as a scout for the Rams, don't you have a potential reason for why you'd publically poo poo a guy in the hopes that your own team can draft him if you like him?

 

And yes, you can find value in the 4th round. You can also find the Carl Bradford/Jerrell McMillian/Jeremy Thompsons as well.

[MrTPlush]

Anyone else watching ESPN? Dexter Williams has giant gold GB balloons behind him as he “gets the call”. Either there is another giant coincidence of GB or that was really staged.

 

I see people with hats and stuff, but did they really have giant balloons for every team?

 

Guessing they had them not blown up and did it with one of those little machines you get at the store when they found out. They were probably continuing their party/celebration afterwards...so it makes sense I guess.

[Jenkins5]

Again Gary was a near lock in every mock until late March then the bloggers & overrated/under qualified media scouts got cold on him. The same that had Metcalf, Taylor, Lock all Top 20 pick guys like Ridley & Butler going in second. They are drastically wrong very often. To listen to their collective sketchy evaluations & take as fact of a players true value is very questionable. Teams have so much more resources & know every detail about each player from every snap they play, every medical concern, all the interviews, background checks that even decent media guys are working with maybe 10% of. They watch some film, read reports on internet, talk to few connections with teams & role with it. A lot of them flow with hype, trends, and take smoke screen bait. They are here more for our entertainment & to give fans some minimal information about who these players are.

 

Most of these mockers have never had a real scouting job & would never be offered one. As a fan I know my opinions are mostly horse crap compared to a nfl scouting department. I have 1% of info to go off of. But I understand both that & most “analyst” don’t know a whole lot about teams boards or true value as well. If they did, a lot of scouts should be out the door. So I won’t claim we could have gotten this guy later because some not very informed analyst says so.

[brewcrewdue80]

I wish it were required to publicize the trade offers declined.

This much should have been certain. Jones, Ferril and Haskins could not have been top 12 in GB's big board. Wilkins, Burns and Sweat along with Gary were still there. Thats trading down to at least 17 and gettin a top 12 value to your board. Realistically how big a difference in numbers would you project vs those 4? On a value stand point they had to grade out overall 0 or worse with the 8picks.

[PeaveyFury]

I wish it were required to publicize the trade offers declined.

This much should have been certain. Jones, Ferril and Haskins could not have been top 12 in GB's big board. Wilkins, Burns and Sweat along with Gary were still there. Thats trading down to at least 17 and gettin a top 12 value to your board. Realistically how big a difference in numbers would you project vs those 4? On a value stand point they had to grade out overall 0 or worse with the 8picks.

 

You have a pretty serious discrepancy between what you know as fact and what you state as such.

[OnTheBlack]

I wish it were required to publicize the trade offers declined.

This much should have been certain. Jones, Ferril and Haskins could not have been top 12 in GB's big board. Wilkins, Burns and Sweat along with Gary were still there. Thats trading down to at least 17 and gettin a top 12 value to your board. Realistically how big a difference in numbers would you project vs those 4? On a value stand point they had to grade out overall 0 or worse with the 8picks.

 

You have a pretty serious discrepancy between what you know as fact and what you state as such.

 

 

The Packers had Gary as their #3 guy on the board. See, I'll just state it as fact, then argue based on that premise.

 

Also, they don't really need a guy like Wilkins. You could always use him, but if he had an equal grade on your board as Gary, Gary was a bigger need. Burns is a soft, off ball LB'er in my opinion, so I'll state as a fact that he wasn't rated near Gary. Then I'll just state as a fact(again, without actually knowing) that the Packers took the guy with the enlarged heart who fell to 26 off their draft board like many other teams as they have a very conservative medical staff.

 

So now the "facts" that I just stated leave you with Gary, their 3rd rated prospect still there at 12 with only one other player(the next guy drafted) with a equal grade, and that guy plays the same position that Kenny Clark does.

 

I don't actually know if any of this is true, but it seems like facts don't seem all that important.

 

 

Sarcasm aside, why is it that Ferrell could not have been in their top 12? Because Mel Kiper says so? He's probably a top 6-9 pick in most drafts, this just happened to be loaded at edge rusher.

[OnTheBlack]

Anyone else watching ESPN? Dexter Williams has giant gold GB balloons behind him as he “gets the call”. Either there is another giant coincidence of GB or that was really staged.

 

I see people with hats and stuff, but did they really have giant balloons for every team?

 

Guessing they had them not blown up and did it with one of those little machines you get at the store when they found out. They were probably continuing their party/celebration afterwards...so it makes sense I guess.

 

 

He wasn't a lock to be there that late. He very easily could have been gone by the time the Packers picked, so I would guess you're right. The Packers probably called a few picks earlier and then he started blowing them up. If someone else picks him...well, they're not that hard to pop.

[LouisEly]

Some things we can deduce based off of the past two days:

 

1) The Packers are a lot more confident in their receiver corps than we are.

 

B) Given that the oldest receiver on the roster, Kumerow, is 27, there may be good reason to be confident.

 

3) The Packers are confident in Billy Turner sliding out to RT, and the plan is for him to play RG this year and move out to RT next. They may even be confident in Cole Madison sliding back out there if needed.

 

4) They value triangle numbers on defense.

 

5) Don't put any weight on the prospects they bring in for visits who project to be 1st/2nd round picks. Those are backup plans and smokescreens.

 

Other thoughts:

 

6) Kingsley Keke is a good value pick. Very athletic, tore up the Senior Bowl. I had him in my first draft before the Senior Bowl, but thought he played his way up to 3rd round.

 

7) Gary and Keke both offer a lot of positional versatility. They can play DE on rush downs and slide inside on passing downs.

[brewcrewdue80]

I wish it were required to publicize the trade offers declined.

This much should have been certain. Jones, Ferril and Haskins could not have been top 12 in GB's big board. Wilkins, Burns and Sweat along with Gary were still there. Thats trading down to at least 17 and gettin a top 12 value to your board. Realistically how big a difference in numbers would you project vs those 4? On a value stand point they had to grade out overall 0 or worse with the 8picks.

 

You have a pretty serious discrepancy between what you know as fact and what you state as such.

 

Here's a fact. Gary wasn't even listed in our poll for #12. Complete afterthought. Not a single soul would say that's because he was going top 3 or 5. Murray, Bosa, Allen, and Williams were clear top 5 predicts. Prior to Gary being picked: 0 times you seen his name in the thread. Peavey you participated in the poll. Never mentioned Gary being a top 12 choice nor question why he wasn't an option to vote for. Just keep sitting there telling yourself Gary was worth the pick at 12. I'll maintain my questioning of his selection as a fact he won't live up to a #12 selection.

[CheezWizHed]

The main reason that he was there was that if anyone mentioned him to the Packers in a mock draft, it was really rare. I remember looking at him, but his size and position (277lb DE) and assumed he was a 4-3 DE and not someone we would consider. I'm also not sure where people are pegging him around #20. A lot of top 100 players rankings had him in the top 10.

 

Sporting News: #4

ESPN: #12

CBS Sports: #9

NFL.com: #10

SI: #4

 

I picked the players in the vote based on the buzz around who was being mocked to the Packers and who we were talking about. Bosa wasn't there either, but if he fell to the Packers, I'd hope they take him...

[Noche]

The main reason that he was there was that if anyone mentioned him to the Packers in a mock draft, it was really rare. I remember looking at him, but his size and position (277lb DE) and assumed he was a 4-3 DE and not someone we would consider. I'm also not sure where people are pegging him around #20. A lot of top 100 players rankings had him in the top 10.

 

Sporting News: #4

ESPN: #12

CBS Sports: #9

NFL.com: #10

SI: #4

 

I picked the players in the vote based on the buzz around who was being mocked to the Packers and who we were talking about. Bosa wasn't there either, but if he fell to the Packers, I'd hope they take him...

 

I’ll say it again. There are some people who are actively hunting reasons to not like Gary. Why? I wish I knew. Sometimes I think even they don’t know. But it will be these same people who take every opportunity to point out every little Gary flaw or missed assignment from here until eternity. It’ll be these folks who rush to label him a bust. It’s inevitable and maddening and quite frankly an intellectually dishonest and incompetent way to live life lol. But of course it’s just a football discussion, so live on detractors!

 

I can acknowledge Gary is no sure thing but I saw a scouting service that compared him to Richard Seymour today. Sign me up for a chance at that!

[PeaveyFury]

 

Here's a fact. Gary wasn't even listed in our poll for #12. Complete afterthought. Not a single soul would say that's because he was going top 3 or 5. Murray, Bosa, Allen, and Williams were clear top 5 predicts.

 

I'm not sure that a baseball fansite poll is the best way to determine NFL draft value.

 

Honestly, you can feel disappointed if you want. I just disagree. As others have said, he's no sure thing, but I don't know what the Packer draft board looked like, I don't know where he fell on other teams' board, and I'm willing to see how he plays before rushing to judgement.

[CheezWizHed]

I'm not sure that a baseball fansite poll is the best way to determine NFL draft value.

 

Especially one started by me!

 

Honestly, you can feel disappointed if you want. I just disagree. As others have said, he's no sure thing, but I don't know what the Packer draft board looked like, I don't know where he fell on other teams' board, and I'm willing to see how he plays before rushing to judgement.

 

Yes, it's all water under the bridge now. He is a Packer, like it or not. Time to cheer him to succeed!