Justin Smoak

[HiAndTight]

I don’t see Smoak as being an upgrade at first at all. Plus adding his $8 million contract over Aguilar’s half a million wouldn’t make much sense. Adding that payroll for a guy that wouldn’t even be an upgrade isn’t really worth it.

 

Not an upgrade?

 

2017- 38 hr .270 .355 .529 .883 131

2018- 25 hr .243 .350 .458 .808 124

This year even better .313 .439 .1021 176

 

If we’re gonna ask for salary relief, they going to want bigger prospect package. They won’t want Thames and his salary.

 

Smoak > Aguilar & diplan.

 

And the three years before those his combined slash numbers looked like this;

 

.216/.297/.403

 

Those were his prime years. If you cherry pick stats, you can really make them look however you want.

 

Aguilar last year .274/.352/.539 134 and 35 HR's 108 RBI's. So Smoak has basically had one really good year and that's

not as good as Aguilar's was last year with the bat.

 

I'd rather stick with the young guy than add another 1B only player to this roster and in the process likely get rid of a lot of your payroll flexibility.

 

I'd rather stick with Aguilar. I still believe he's going to turn it around and improve his offense.

[HiAndTight]

Some might say last year was Aguilars outlier. Diplan a decent prospect so maybe they throw in 4-5 mil

 

 

 

Those people wouldn't know what the definition of the word "outlier" was then. They may believe it will end up being an outlier, but given that he's played one full season, I don't know how you can argue that season is an "outlier" in his MLB career. Of course, he also put up a pretty solid partial season in 2017.

 

You need more than one point on the graph to create an outlier. At best if you want to use the 133 games he appeared in, many as a pinch hitter, he put up a .837 OPS, a .891 OPS and he's struggled for 21 games this season.

 

 

Moreover, this isn't fantasy baseball. I've seen where you've wanted both Kimbrel AND Kuchel, you now want to dump the young guy we have for the next 4 years for a vet who had a career year that was basically equal to Aguilar's season last year.

[Brew crew 92]

Some might say last year was Aguilars outlier. Diplan a decent prospect so maybe they throw in 4-5 mil

 

 

 

Those people wouldn't know what the definition of the word "outlier" was then. They may believe it will end up being an outlier, but given that he's played one full season, I don't know how you can argue that season is an "outlier" in his MLB career. Of course, he also put up a pretty solid partial season in 2017.

 

You need more than one point on the graph to create an outlier. At best if you want to use the 133 games he appeared in, many as a pinch hitter, he put up a .837 OPS, a .891 OPS and he's struggled for 21 games this season.

 

 

Moreover, this isn't fantasy baseball. I've seen where you've wanted both Kimbrel AND Kuchel, you now want to dump the young guy we have for the next 4 years for a vet who had a career year that was basically equal to Aguilar's season last year.

 

Love to have Kuechel, could use a 7 inning pitcher, and battle tested playoff pitcher but at 18-20 mil even prorated 15-17 probably not going to happen.

 

I’d prefer the best relief pitcher in the world. For 9-12 mil probably more affordable than Kuechel.

[Brew crew 92]

Some might say last year was Aguilars outlier. Diplan a decent prospect so maybe they throw in 4-5 mil

 

 

 

Those people wouldn't know what the definition of the word "outlier" was then. They may believe it will end up being an outlier, but given that he's played one full season, I don't know how you can argue that season is an "outlier" in his MLB career. Of course, he also put up a pretty solid partial season in 2017.

 

You need more than one point on the graph to create an outlier. At best if you want to use the 133 games he appeared in, many as a pinch hitter, he put up a .837 OPS, a .891 OPS and he's struggled for 21 games this season.

 

 

Moreover, this isn't fantasy baseball. I've seen where you've wanted both Kimbrel AND Kuchel, you now want to dump the young guy we have for the next 4 years for a vet who had a career year that was basically equal to Aguilar's season last year.

 

I like smoak a lot more than you do, I don’t want to trade Aguilar, I just don’t think they will want thames. They have a big left handed hitting first baseman rowdy tellez, 24 year old prospect they like. Might not want Aguilar, not sure any one would as bad as he looks right now.

[OnTheBlack]

 

Love to have Kuechel, could use a 7 inning pitcher, and battle tested playoff pitcher but at 18-20 mil even prorated 15-17 probably not going to happen.

 

I’d prefer the best relief pitcher in the world. For 9-12 mil probably more affordable than Kuechel.

 

 

What information do we have that suggests Kimbrel is going to be had for 9-12 million? Or that he'd even be cheaper than Kuechel?

 

That's at best speculation that runs contrary to everything I've heard about the two thus far.

[Brew crew 92]

 

Love to have Kuechel, could use a 7 inning pitcher, and battle tested playoff pitcher but at 18-20 mil even prorated 15-17 probably not going to happen.

 

I’d prefer the best relief pitcher in the world. For 9-12 mil probably more affordable than Kuechel.

 

 

What information do we have that suggests Kimbrel is going to be had for 9-12 million? Or that he'd even be cheaper than Kuechel?

 

That's at best speculation that runs contrary to everything I've heard about the two thus far.

 

I’ve answered that question in thread or multiple threads already.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

 

Love to have Kuechel, could use a 7 inning pitcher, and battle tested playoff pitcher but at 18-20 mil even prorated 15-17 probably not going to happen.

 

I’d prefer the best relief pitcher in the world. For 9-12 mil probably more affordable than Kuechel.

 

 

What information do we have that suggests Kimbrel is going to be had for 9-12 million? Or that he'd even be cheaper than Kuechel?

 

That's at best speculation that runs contrary to everything I've heard about the two thus far.

 

I’ve answered that question in thread or multiple threads already.

 

You speculated. Please stop making factual-like statements based on guesses. Think about it ... if Kimbrel was willing to sign for $9 million, wouldn't he be on a team?

[Brew crew 92]

Ok, I’ll try this one more time.

 

It’s been reported Kimbrel’s asking price down to 3 @ 45

 

Sign him for that.

 

If this year’s budget needs to backload 3 mil of the 15

 

Then the prorated 15 mil salary is 12 mil for this year.

 

15 mil - 3(backloaded) -3 (prorated)= 9 mil for this year, 16 for 2020, 17 for 2021.

 

If can’t be backloaded it’s 12 mil for this year 15 for the next 2.

 

If the 15 mil doesn’t fit in next year’s Mark A/ Stearns budget trade him.

 

Personally I’d keep him, with 28 mil off the books in Grandal and moose, plus the 9 mil extra every team in baseball getting with the new Fox deal.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Ok, I’ll try this one more time.

 

It’s been reported Kimbrel’s asking price down to 3 @ 45

 

Sign him for that.

 

If this year’s budget needs to backload 3 mil of the 15

 

Then the prorated 15 mil salary is 12 mil for this year.

 

15 mil - 3(backloaded) -3 (prorated)= 9 mil for this year, 16 for 2020, 17 for 2021.

 

If can’t be backloaded it’s 12 mil for this year 15 for the next 2.

 

If the 15 mil doesn’t fit in next year’s Mark A/ Stearns budget trade him.

 

Personally I’d keep him, with 28 mil off the books in Grandal and moose, plus the 9 mil extra every team in baseball getting with the new Fox deal.

 

3 years/$45 million guaranteed is NOT $9 million. When you talk contract, you need to represent the full value of the deal, not the first year payout minus backloading. And it doesn't mention anywhere that Kimbrel would take a prorated deal, so that is 100% speculation.

 

Now ... instead of turning this into yet another thread that devolves into arguing about Craig Kimbrel (who I think has no chance of being a Brewer), lets keep this on Smoak. There is a whole thread devoted to Kimbrel that is collecting dust, just like him.

[PeaveyFury]

For the last time, please keep Kimbrel discussion in Kimbrel threads. Obviously, there can be some relevant crossover, but this goes way beyond that, once again.

[Brew crew 92]

Ok, I’ll try this one more time.

 

It’s been reported Kimbrel’s asking price down to 3 @ 45

 

Sign him for that.

 

If this year’s budget needs to backload 3 mil of the 15

 

Then the prorated 15 mil salary is 12 mil for this year.

 

15 mil - 3(backloaded) -3 (prorated)= 9 mil for this year, 16 for 2020, 17 for 2021.

 

If can’t be backloaded it’s 12 mil for this year 15 for the next 2.

 

If the 15 mil doesn’t fit in next year’s Mark A/ Stearns budget trade him.

 

Personally I’d keep him, with 28 mil off the books in Grandal and moose, plus the 9 mil extra every team in baseball getting with the new Fox deal.

 

3 years/$45 million guaranteed is NOT $9 million. When you talk contract, you need to represent the full value of the deal, not the first year payout minus backloading. And it doesn't mention anywhere that Kimbrel would take a prorated deal, so that is 100% speculation.

 

Now ... instead of turning this into yet another thread that devolves into arguing about Craig Kimbrel (who I think has no chance of being a Brewer), lets keep this on Smoak. There is a whole thread devoted to Kimbrel that is collecting dust, just like him.

 

I have represented the full value of the deal in numerous posts, the 9 mil you referring to only time I didn’t.

[TURBO]

 

Love to have Kuechel, could use a 7 inning pitcher, and battle tested playoff pitcher but at 18-20 mil even prorated 15-17 probably not going to happen.

 

I’d prefer the best relief pitcher in the world. For 9-12 mil probably more affordable than Kuechel.

 

 

What information do we have that suggests Kimbrel is going to be had for 9-12 million? Or that he'd even be cheaper than Kuechel?

 

That's at best speculation that runs contrary to everything I've heard about the two thus far.

 

I’ve answered that question in thread or multiple threads already.

 

 

If you have to continuously answer the same question in multiple threads, maybe that tells you something?

[HiAndTight]

 

Love to have Kuechel, could use a 7 inning pitcher, and battle tested playoff pitcher but at 18-20 mil even prorated 15-17 probably not going to happen.

 

I’d prefer the best relief pitcher in the world. For 9-12 mil probably more affordable than Kuechel.

 

 

What information do we have that suggests Kimbrel is going to be had for 9-12 million? Or that he'd even be cheaper than Kuechel?

 

That's at best speculation that runs contrary to everything I've heard about the two thus far.

 

I’ve answered that question in thread or multiple threads already.

 

You've done so by massaging the numbers so they fit your number. You're working as both GM, Agent, AND player and saying, "why not do this," while ignoring the fact that the player has not given any indication AT ALL that he's willing to play for 9 million dollars this year. He wanted 6/118. His price has come down. I doubt it's fallen down below Britton or Ottavino.

[Brew crew 92]

Not a right handed hitting first baseman, but a better, more professional hitter than Thames. Get him away from the rebuilding jays to a contending brewers club could inspire even more from him.

 

Smoak > Thames & Williams & Diplan

[pacopete4]

Why would a rebuilding Toronto want Thames?

[Brew crew 92]

Why would a rebuilding Toronto want Thames?

 

If Thames does well they could flip him. Not sure what the value would be for Smoak, would guess close to Abreu, so if they don’t want Thames, Im pretty sure we can make it work another way.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Thames has been fine lately Why is the grass always greener?

[adambr2]

Thames has been fine lately Why is the grass always greener?

 

I don't know. There is very little difference between Thames and Smoak. Smoak is a switch hitter, but he's so much better as a lefty that the SH thing isn't really an advantage with him. He's not a good righty hitter.

 

We seem to be fueled by a constant desire for change and this search for a "professional" hitter, whatever that is, we apparently do not have any.

[Brew crew 92]

Thames has been fine lately Why is the grass always greener?

 

I don't know. There is very little difference between Thames and Smoak. Smoak is a switch hitter, but he's so much better as a lefty that the SH thing isn't really an advantage with him. He's not a good righty hitter.

 

We seem to be fueled by a constant desire for change and this search for a "professional" hitter, whatever that is, we apparently do not have any.

 

Ops+:

 

Thames 102 Smoke 127

Smoak also strikes out less, walks more = professional hitter.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Thames has been fine lately Why is the grass always greener?

 

I don't know. There is very little difference between Thames and Smoak. Smoak is a switch hitter, but he's so much better as a lefty that the SH thing isn't really an advantage with him. He's not a good righty hitter.

 

We seem to be fueled by a constant desire for change and this search for a "professional" hitter, whatever that is, we apparently do not have any.

 

Ops+:

 

Thames 102 Smoke 127

Smoak also strikes out less, walks more = professional hitter.

 

Career ops+ (because that is what really matters)

Thames 108 Smoke 106

 

Also, Smoak's average is down to .224 now, similar to his .233 career average. I would imagine that ops+ will come back to career average as well. I totally get the idea of trying to improve at the 1B position. I just don't think Smoak is an improvement, though, and the numbers bear that out. I think this would be a change simply to make a change.

[pacopete4]

Can the phrase professional hitter get retired?

[JosephC]

Can the phrase professional hitter get retired?

 

"Superpen" is first in line!

[Brew crew 92]

Thames has been fine lately Why is the grass always greener?

 

Well maybe not greener, but with less weeds(less Ks-more contact)with the potential for a pristine Lawn(short right field Miller Park effect/Loser to Winner)

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Thames has been fine lately Why is the grass always greener?

 

Well maybe not greener, but with less weeds(less Ks-more contact)with the potential for a pristine Lawn(short right field Miller Park effect/Loser to Winner)

 

How does that short right field not help Thames? He's just as much a pull hitter as Smoak.

 

This team is good. Stop wishing for different and enjoy what we have. Sheesh man. Loser to winner? Ask the Jays how that's working out. Come on

[Brew crew 92]

Thames has been fine lately Why is the grass always greener?

 

Well maybe not greener, but with less weeds(less Ks-more contact)with the potential for a pristine Lawn(short right field Miller Park effect/Loser to Winner)

 

How does that short right field not help Thames? He's just as much a pull hitter as Smoak.

 

This team is good. Stop wishing for different and enjoy what we have. Sheesh man. Loser to winner? Ask the Jays how that's working out. Come on

 

Because I’m not satisfied with what we have. Our lack of offense Last year kept us from the World Series, and I see the same thing happening all over again.

 

Stearns knew that last year, that’s why he did the schoop trade, when people where why another offensive piece, get more pitching instead. It’s the same this year. We have the 2 worst hitters in the game right now on our team. The worst third base production in baseball-The 3rd worst first base production. That HAS TO CHANGE. And it can change from within(Shaw Aguilar hitting again) or from getting outside help.

 

Smoak is an upgrade from Thames for this year. His walks are about equal to his Ks = that alone is enough for me.

 

Last month there was a twitter report saying Stearns talking with the jays about Smoak, so I won’t be surprised if this is one of his moves.