Justin Smoak

[ntretts]

 

This guy on Twitter claims to have an "internal source" telling him that the Brewers are discussing trading for Justin Smoak. Seems a little early to give up on Aguilar but I wouldn't mind adding him.

[tmwiese55]

I'd believe it when I see it. Just spitballing hypotheticals I'd guess Thames would be going back though

[Eye Black]

Usually where there's Smoak, there's fire.

[Brew crew 92]

Usually where there's Smoak, there's fire.

[Devinep]

Maybe Toronto is just the team that can afford to take back Aguilar and give him more slack to try and turn it around since they’re not going anywhere this year anyway. They’d downgrade talent but get more team control in the trade.

[RollieTime]

I don’t see Smoak as being an upgrade at first at all. Plus adding his $8 million contract over Aguilar’s half a million wouldn’t make much sense. Adding that payroll for a guy that wouldn’t even be an upgrade isn’t really worth it.

[Eye Black]

Smoak is in the last year of his contract and is making $8 million this season. I would assume the Brewers wouldn’t be interested in taking on the totality of his contract unless they were getting some salary relief in return (or the Blue Jays agreed to pay a portion).

[pacopete4]

Sending Thames to Toronto to finish where he began.

[Brew crew 92]

I don’t see Smoak as being an upgrade at first at all. Plus adding his $8 million contract over Aguilar’s half a million wouldn’t make much sense. Adding that payroll for a guy that wouldn’t even be an upgrade isn’t really worth it.

 

Not an upgrade?

 

2017- 38 hr .270 .355 .529 .883 131

2018- 25 hr .243 .350 .458 .808 124

This year even better .313 .439 .1021 176

 

If we’re gonna ask for salary relief, they going to want bigger prospect package. They won’t want Thames and his salary.

 

Smoak > Aguilar & diplan.

[RollieTime]

I don’t see Smoak as being an upgrade at first at all. Plus adding his $8 million contract over Aguilar’s half a million wouldn’t make much sense. Adding that payroll for a guy that wouldn’t even be an upgrade isn’t really worth it.

 

Not an upgrade?

 

2017- 38 hr .270 .355 .529 .883 131

2018- 25 hr .243 .350 .458 .808 124

This year even better .313 .439 .1021 176

 

If we’re gonna ask for salary relief, they going to want bigger prospect package. They won’t want Thames and his salary.

 

Smoak > Aguilar & diplan.

 

Look at his stats for his career. He had one outlier season in 2017 and that’s it. Aguilar was much more productive than Smoak last season and we are trying to dump him for a guy who has one good season to his name? AND giving up a prospect to get him? While also adding roughly $8 million in payroll? This trade would make no sense in any way.

[Brew crew 92]

I don’t see Smoak as being an upgrade at first at all. Plus adding his $8 million contract over Aguilar’s half a million wouldn’t make much sense. Adding that payroll for a guy that wouldn’t even be an upgrade isn’t really worth it.

 

Not an upgrade?

 

2017- 38 hr .270 .355 .529 .883 131

2018- 25 hr .243 .350 .458 .808 124

This year even better .313 .439 .1021 176

 

If we’re gonna ask for salary relief, they going to want bigger prospect package. They won’t want Thames and his salary.

 

Smoak > Aguilar & diplan.

 

Look at his stats for his career. He had one outlier season in 2017 and that’s it. Aguilar was much more productive than Smoak last season and we are trying to dump him for a guy who has one good season to his name? AND giving up a prospect to get him? While also adding roughly $8 million in payroll? This trade would make no sense in any way.

 

Some might say last year was Aguilars outlier. Diplan a decent prospect so maybe they throw in 4-5 mil

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I do like that he's a switch hitter. So sick of watching these all-or-nothing lefty power guys fanning away.

[Devinep]

I don’t see Smoak as being an upgrade at first at all. Plus adding his $8 million contract over Aguilar’s half a million wouldn’t make much sense. Adding that payroll for a guy that wouldn’t even be an upgrade isn’t really worth it.

 

Not an upgrade?

 

2017- 38 hr .270 .355 .529 .883 131

2018- 25 hr .243 .350 .458 .808 124

This year even better .313 .439 .1021 176

 

If we’re gonna ask for salary relief, they going to want bigger prospect package. They won’t want Thames and his salary.

 

Smoak > Aguilar & diplan.

 

Look at his stats for his career. He had one outlier season in 2017 and that’s it. Aguilar was much more productive than Smoak last season and we are trying to dump him for a guy who has one good season to his name? AND giving up a prospect to get him? While also adding roughly $8 million in payroll? This trade would make no sense in any way.

 

So 2018 (and so far in 19) are not that good?

[Brew crew 92]

I do like that he's a switch hitter. So sick of watching these all-or-nothing lefty power guys fanning away.

 

Switch hitting Travis Shaw.

Numbers eerily similar to Shaw, certainly would improve the line-up.

[IntentionalHBP]

Highly doubt this will happen.

[RollieTime]

Not an upgrade?

 

2017- 38 hr .270 .355 .529 .883 131

2018- 25 hr .243 .350 .458 .808 124

This year even better .313 .439 .1021 176

 

If we’re gonna ask for salary relief, they going to want bigger prospect package. They won’t want Thames and his salary.

 

Smoak > Aguilar & diplan.

 

Look at his stats for his career. He had one outlier season in 2017 and that’s it. Aguilar was much more productive than Smoak last season and we are trying to dump him for a guy who has one good season to his name? AND giving up a prospect to get him? While also adding roughly $8 million in payroll? This trade would make no sense in any way.

 

So 2018 (and so far in 19) are not that good?

 

2018 is not that good no. I don’t consider a .240 hitter to be good. Obviously he’s hitting well to start the year, but he will almost definitely finish the season hitting well below .300. He’s never hit over .270 and has only hit over .240 twice in his 9 year career. We already have plenty of guys that hit some homeruns and provide nothing else offensively. We already have our own Smoak in Thames. If he was given 500 plate appearances, he will finish in that .240/.330 range with 25 homeruns just like Smoak.

[tmwiese55]

I'd consider a for sure upgrade over our current 1B situation due to the reliability and consistency of him. You know what you're gonna get basically and it's a solid hitting 1B. Look at the OBPs there as well btw. Our current guys you basically have no idea what they're gonna do. Is the upgrade worth the cost of salary and prospects, well that's a different discussion. That's why I guessed it would be Thames going back to help salary. Still, I don't really think this is too feasible.

[JosephC]

The April mega-deal that never happens, for entertainment purposes only:

 

Brewers get:

RHP-Marcus Stroman

1B-Justin Smoak

RHP-Ken Giles

 

Blue Jays get:

1B-Eric Thames

RHP-Adrian Houser

RHP-Taylor Williams

OF-Corey Ray

RHP-Trey Supak

OF-Carlos Rodriguez

 

Stroman has a big reputation from the 3.09 ERA he posted in 2017. But the season before that the ERA was 4.37, the year after that the ERA was 5.54. His FIPs during those three seasons were 3.71, 3.90, 3.91. Taking the crazy ERA jumps and dips from 4.37 to 3.09 to 5.54...ERA over those three seasons was 4.10. FIP over those three seasons is 3.83. Note that he did suffer injury problems in 2018, which is going to negatively impact those numbers. However, the history shows that Stroman is likely a quality high 3's ERA type pitcher over the long run, and really has not been a front line starter to this point. The fact that he's a real small guy won't help his trade value at all.

 

Taking Stroman's average seasonal bWAR/fWAR from 2016-2018, it comes out to a shade under 2.5. While many would assume he would carry high trade value, based on the numbers I would only put his surplus value in the 25-30 million dollar range. And since he is off to a hot start this year, Toronto might decide to sell him right now rather than risk regression back to high 3's ERA territory or, worse yet, injury.

 

The three players heading to Milwaukee total 19.7 million in salary which is a pretty big number considering where the Brewers are already at. Therefore, Thames and his 6 million salary has to go to Toronto to provide a bit of salary relief.

 

Toronto currently has injury problems with their staff so Adrian Houser and Taylor Williams are included to immediately go onto the 25 man roster and pick up MLB innings.

 

Probably the weakest area of the Jays farm system would be outfielder, which would make Corey Ray a realistic target.

 

It would all come down to what value each side puts on Stroman and Ray. If both sides see Stroman as having 25-30 million in surplus value and Corey Ray having about 18 million in surplus value, then all the other pieces included kind of evens up everything from a surplus value standpoint.

[pacopete4]

I like it. Make the trade.

[Warning Track Power]

The April mega-deal that never happens, for entertainment purposes only:

 

Brewers get:

RHP-Marcus Stroman

1B-Justin Smoak

RHP-Ken Giles

 

Blue Jays get:

1B-Eric Thames

RHP-Adrian Houser

RHP-Taylor Williams

OF-Corey Ray

RHP-Trey Supak

OF-Carlos Rodriguez

Please call Stearns and get him to make this deal.

[TURBO]

RHP-Marcus Stroman

1B-Justin Smoak

RHP-Ken Giles

 

How long are these guys currently under contract?

[brooks_quichenick]

RHP-Marcus Stroman

1B-Justin Smoak

RHP-Ken Giles

 

How long are these guys currently under contract?

 

As far as I can tell:

 

Stroman - has 1 more Arb year after this season before FA

Smoak - final year of his contract

Giles - 1 more Arb year

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

The April mega-deal that never happens, for entertainment purposes only:

 

Brewers get:

RHP-Marcus Stroman

1B-Justin Smoak

RHP-Ken Giles

 

Blue Jays get:

1B-Eric Thames

RHP-Adrian Houser

RHP-Taylor Williams

OF-Corey Ray

RHP-Trey Supak

OF-Carlos Rodriguez

 

I really like the creativity. I fear that the Brewers are giving up too much though. Stroman should be a buy low, and Giles is kind of a head case. On paper, though, and in a vacuum, a deal like this makes a ton of sense. Which is why it probably doesn't stand a chance of happening, unfortunately.

[wntrtxn21]

The April mega-deal that never happens, for entertainment purposes only:

 

Brewers get:

RHP-Marcus Stroman

1B-Justin Smoak

RHP-Ken Giles

 

Blue Jays get:

1B-Eric Thames

RHP-Adrian Houser

RHP-Taylor Williams

OF-Corey Ray

RHP-Trey Supak

OF-Carlos Rodriguez

 

Stroman has a big reputation from the 3.09 ERA he posted in 2017. But the season before that the ERA was 4.37, the year after that the ERA was 5.54. His FIPs during those three seasons were 3.71, 3.90, 3.91. Taking the crazy ERA jumps and dips from 4.37 to 3.09 to 5.54...ERA over those three seasons was 4.10. FIP over those three seasons is 3.83. Note that he did suffer injury problems in 2018, which is going to negatively impact those numbers. However, the history shows that Stroman is likely a quality high 3's ERA type pitcher over the long run, and really has not been a front line starter to this point. The fact that he's a real small guy won't help his trade value at all.

 

Taking Stroman's average seasonal bWAR/fWAR from 2016-2018, it comes out to a shade under 2.5. While many would assume he would carry high trade value, based on the numbers I would only put his surplus value in the 25-30 million dollar range. And since he is off to a hot start this year, Toronto might decide to sell him right now rather than risk regression back to high 3's ERA territory or, worse yet, injury.

 

The three players heading to Milwaukee total 19.7 million in salary which is a pretty big number considering where the Brewers are already at. Therefore, Thames and his 6 million salary has to go to Toronto to provide a bit of salary relief.

 

Toronto currently has injury problems with their staff so Adrian Houser and Taylor Williams are included to immediately go onto the 25 man roster and pick up MLB innings.

 

Probably the weakest area of the Jays farm system would be outfielder, which would make Corey Ray a realistic target.

 

It would all come down to what value each side puts on Stroman and Ray. If both sides see Stroman as having 25-30 million in surplus value and Corey Ray having about 18 million in surplus value, then all the other pieces included kind of evens up everything from a surplus value standpoint.

 

Both Williams and Houser are AAAA material and no real help. Thames is an all or nothing guy who is worse than Smoak. Supak is a back-end of rotation type prospect and Rodriguez is barley starting out. This trade would be trading money and hot now type players for prospects and throw-ins. I doubt seriously that the Jays would want anything to do with it. Not nearly enough coming back to them for what they are giving up.

[JosephC]

The April mega-deal that never happens, for entertainment purposes only:

 

Brewers get:

RHP-Marcus Stroman

1B-Justin Smoak

RHP-Ken Giles

 

Blue Jays get:

1B-Eric Thames

RHP-Adrian Houser

RHP-Taylor Williams

OF-Corey Ray

RHP-Trey Supak

OF-Carlos Rodriguez

 

Stroman has a big reputation from the 3.09 ERA he posted in 2017. But the season before that the ERA was 4.37, the year after that the ERA was 5.54. His FIPs during those three seasons were 3.71, 3.90, 3.91. Taking the crazy ERA jumps and dips from 4.37 to 3.09 to 5.54...ERA over those three seasons was 4.10. FIP over those three seasons is 3.83. Note that he did suffer injury problems in 2018, which is going to negatively impact those numbers. However, the history shows that Stroman is likely a quality high 3's ERA type pitcher over the long run, and really has not been a front line starter to this point. The fact that he's a real small guy won't help his trade value at all.

 

Taking Stroman's average seasonal bWAR/fWAR from 2016-2018, it comes out to a shade under 2.5. While many would assume he would carry high trade value, based on the numbers I would only put his surplus value in the 25-30 million dollar range. And since he is off to a hot start this year, Toronto might decide to sell him right now rather than risk regression back to high 3's ERA territory or, worse yet, injury.

 

The three players heading to Milwaukee total 19.7 million in salary which is a pretty big number considering where the Brewers are already at. Therefore, Thames and his 6 million salary has to go to Toronto to provide a bit of salary relief.

 

Toronto currently has injury problems with their staff so Adrian Houser and Taylor Williams are included to immediately go onto the 25 man roster and pick up MLB innings.

 

Probably the weakest area of the Jays farm system would be outfielder, which would make Corey Ray a realistic target.

 

It would all come down to what value each side puts on Stroman and Ray. If both sides see Stroman as having 25-30 million in surplus value and Corey Ray having about 18 million in surplus value, then all the other pieces included kind of evens up everything from a surplus value standpoint.

 

Both Williams and Houser are AAAA material and no real help. Thames is an all or nothing guy who is worse than Smoak. Supak is a back-end of rotation type prospect and Rodriguez is barley starting out. This trade would be trading money and hot now type players for prospects and throw-ins. I doubt seriously that the Jays would want anything to do with it. Not nearly enough coming back to them for what they are giving up.

 

That was my first reaction when looking through the possibilities. I had actually started with Aaron Sanchez and not Stroman, but after looking through Sanchez's peripherals (not to mention the current fingernail injury), I pretty much reached the conclusion that Sanchez really shouldn't be a real trade target until he puts a string of success together. And it's been awhile since he's done so.

 

But when including Stroman, I definitely got the vibe of "give us your best player for a whole bunch of our junk" which I see a lot of people throw out and, frankly, I hate it when they do so.

 

But when looking at the individual components.....Ken Giles has very little if any trade value. From 2016-2018 his annual average fWAR/bWAR is only 0.95. So over 2019/2020 it would probably be fair to evaluate him as being worth 1.9 WAR. He makes pretty good money all things considered (14.3 million estimated since he is in arbitration). Not unreasonable to put his surplus value in the range of just 2-3 million dollars which makes him worth 1 fringe prospect. Smoak has been a 1.8 bWAR/fWAR player from 2016-2018. Last year of his deal, he probably has surplus value of about 10 million. Now if you are the Blue Jays, how many teams are going to want to trade for an .830 OPS first baseman (a fair full season projection IMO)? Now reduce the field, how many BUYERS/CONTENDING teams will want to trade for an .830 OPS first baseman? There is nothing wrong with an .830 OPS, but it's not an overwhelming figure coming out of the 1B spot. He earns 6 million this year, fair surplus value on him is 10 million dollars. That's more than Thames, who has averaged 1.25 WAR in 2017-2018, but Thames has the advantage of having that option year, so the team controls him for an additional season and if Thames proves to be a non-fit then the Blue Jays can buyout that year (1 million). So Smoak has more value than Thames, but it is probably only in the area of 3-4 million surplus dollars. Frankly, a Giles/Smoak for Thames/role-player prospect/fringe prospect is a pretty even deal. For the sake of this scenario, let's say that translates to Giles/Smoak for Thames/Adrian Houser/Carlos Rodriguez...even though I would classify Rodriguez as more of a role-player prospect than fringe prospect which would swing the value to the Jay's side.

 

I've already gone on about Stroman and his past WAR/ERA/FIP and explained the 25-30 million surplus value. Ray is a back end top 100 prospect, which is about 21 million in prospect surplus value. However, with his poor offensive start to this season, I'll knock him down to 18 million. Supak, solid role player prospect, fits in at 5.5 million in surplus value. Williams, probably somewhere between role-player prospect and fringe prospect (normally I value at 2.2 million). So 18 + 5.5 + let's say 3.5 for Williams = 27 total in surplus value. It's sort of in the range of what Stroman should be valued at IMO.

 

But no question this is a "quantity" trade for the Blue Jays that will save them some money and could turn out to be a sell high with Stroman considering his somewhat erratic track record. IMO the entire Smoak/Giles/Thames/etc (everyone not named Stroman or Ray) is just evening out. This comes down to how the Brewers view Stroman and how the Jays view Ray. Smoak is the subject of this thread so he is included and that gets Thames included. But that's all just window dressing for the Stroman/Ray swap. Then, of course, the Brewers need to add because Stroman is worth more than Ray. I think the overall package does a pretty good job. Note that all of the five "young players" headed to the Jays are not Aaron Wilkerson, older-type MiLB vets who really don't have upside anymore. Houser and Williams both still have a solid chance of being 25-man roster "automatics"). Ray is in MLB Pipeline's Top 100 prospects. Supak is a solid role-player prospect who's stock has gone up every year since joining the Brewers and he is off to a good start this year. And I specifically picked Rodriguez because I think he has shown to be the best of the Brewers "latest wave" of international prospects and figured he would be a necessity over someone like Larry Ernesto (who also appears to be a pretty decent prospect). So while it's "quantity," it's not like it's Aaron Wilkerson/Bubba Derby/C.J. Hinojosa quantity, it's definitely a significant cut above that.