Jump to content
Brewer Fanatic

2019-04-21: Dodgers (Kershaw) at Brewers (Woodruff) [Brewers lose, 6-5 -- Thames 3-run HR in 8th ties it; Bellinger HR in the 9th proves the difference]

Eye Black

By Eye Black,
in Archived Game Threads

adambr2 All-Star

adambr2

Verified Member
Posted
Posted
That poor performance is not sustainable under the year to date level of play.

 

Can you explain what you mean by that? This sentence doesn't make any sense to me. There's no doubt they're fortunate to have the record they have with the performances all-around so far.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
  • Replies 118
  • Created
  • Last Reply
pacopete4 Nashville Sounds

pacopete4

Verified Member
Posted
Posted
Not getting Yelich to the plate there sums up this game.
"This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.
Link to comment
Share on other sites
sveumrules Carolina Mudcats

sveumrules

Community Moderator
Posted
Posted
That poor performance is not sustainable under the year to date level of play.

 

Can you explain what you mean by that? This sentence doesn't make any sense to me. There's no doubt they're fortunate to have the record they have with the performances all-around so far.

 

Sure.

 

In 2016 the Brewers posted an ERA/FIP/xFIP of 4.10/4.37/4.42

In 2017 the Brewers posted an ERA/FIP/xFIP of 4.00/4.24/4.26

In 2018 the Brewers posted an ERA/FIP/xFIP of 3.73/4.01/4.04

 

So for three consecutive seasons under Stearns, with a varying collection of pitchers & defenders, the team managed to prevent less runs than their peripheral estimators would indicate, to the 3rd highest level in all of MLB. Maybe it was just luck, maybe it was all because of DJ, I don't know, but those are the numbers.

 

In 2019 the Brewers have posted an ERA/FIP/xFIP of 4.96/5.00/4.42

 

The main issue driving the poor ERA/FIP marks is our unsustainably high 1.76 HR9 mark, which is why the xFIP is much more respectable & a better indicator where the team will likely end up at the end of the year than ERA through 200 innings.

 

HR rate is extremely noisy through a sample this small. Our HR9 is the third worst in MLB at 132% of league average. Right now from top to bottom the HR9+ rankings go from 195 to 61. Over the last two seasons the HR9+ ranges have been 77-129 & 78-127, for comparison.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
BruisedCrew ACL Brewers

BruisedCrew

Verified Member
Posted
Posted

Aguilar swings at a 2-0 pitch out of the strike zone to kill the budding rally.

 

There is a point where you need some offense out of that position.

Note: If I raise something as a POSSIBILITY that does not mean that I EXPECT it to happen.
Link to comment
Share on other sites
pacopete4 Nashville Sounds

pacopete4

Verified Member
Posted
Posted
Uecker said on radio that the Braun hit put him in third place in our history.
"This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.
Link to comment
Share on other sites
sveumrules Carolina Mudcats

sveumrules

Community Moderator
Posted
Posted
That poor performance is not sustainable under the year to date level of play.

 

Can you explain what you mean by that? This sentence doesn't make any sense to me. There's no doubt they're fortunate to have the record they have with the performances all-around so far.

 

Sure.

 

In 2016 the Brewers posted an ERA/FIP/xFIP of 4.10/4.37/4.42

In 2017 the Brewers posted an ERA/FIP/xFIP of 4.00/4.24/4.26

In 2018 the Brewers posted an ERA/FIP/xFIP of 3.73/4.01/4.04

 

So for three consecutive seasons under Stearns, with a varying collection of pitchers & defenders, the team managed to prevent less runs than their peripheral estimators would indicate, to the 3rd highest level in all of MLB. Maybe it was just luck, maybe it was all because of DJ, I don't know, but those are the numbers.

 

In 2019 the Brewers have posted an ERA/FIP/xFIP of 4.96/5.00/4.42

 

The main issue driving the poor ERA/FIP marks is our unsustainably high 1.76 HR9 mark, which is why the xFIP is much more respectable & a better indicator where the team will likely end up at the end of the year than ERA through 200 innings.

 

HR rate is extremely noisy through a sample this small. Our HR9 is the third worst in MLB at 132% of league average. Right now from top to bottom the HR9+ rankings go from 195 to 61. Over the last two seasons the HR9+ ranges have been 77-129 & 78-127, for comparison.

 

To build it out a little further here is an article from last year where Jeff Sullivan investigated which is the best indicator of 2nd half results out of 1st half results, 1st half pythagorean results or the projections.

 

The projections won in a landslide & we're currently dealing with a sample about 1/3rd the size of 1st half results/1st half pythagorean results at this point.

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/how-best-to-predict-the-seasons-second-half/

Link to comment
Share on other sites
homer MVP

homer

Brewer Fanatic Contributor
Posted
Posted
That was nice.
"Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power......He probably has a future as a backup infielder if he can stop rolling over to third base and shortstop." Keith Law, 2006
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Go to topic listing
The Twins Daily Caretaker Fund
The Brewer Fanatic Caretaker Fund

You all care about this site. The next step is caring for it. We’re asking you to caretake this site so it can remain the premier Brewers community on the internet. Included with caretaking is ad-free browsing of Brewer Fanatic.

Become a Caretaker
×
×
  • Create New...