Poll: Who will the Packers pick at #12?

[brewcrewdue80]

Hock and Bush I'll list their mocks in last 24hours

 

Hock-Bush

10&11

16&12

5 in one article: 8&10, 8&10, 7&22, 7&22, 12&19

10&11

8&10

7&10

9&12

15&18(calls for Metcalf and Hakeem Butler for GB. Both WRs)

Denver post (Bronco picks only but give idea where they are shooting) Bush at 10.

10&20

12&11

 

That's the last 24hour, 2 pages of mocks from google. Avg 9.93 & 13.87

[patrickgpe]

Here is the one having bush go 30. I get that, my point is that nobody knows, so it’s foolish to speculate on who is falling or rising. Even the “experts” don’t. It’s fun to speculate on who they will take and who you want, but that will most likely lead to disappointment.

 

 

 

http://www.nfl.com/draft/2019/mock-drafts/charles-davis/376552

 

To prove my point the same website has another mock from the same day with bush 12.

http://www.nfl.com/draft/2019/mock-drafts/Rhett-Lewis/376553

[CheezWizHed]

No offense patrickgpe, but if you don't like speculation about the draft, why are you here conversing about it? Some of us like being armchair GMs.

[HiAndTight]

I think Hock's stock has drastically cooled. I think he is a great fit for the Packers, but I'd rather see him in the 18-20 pick range (i.e. trade down).

 

I picked Sweat as I think he is the most likely person to be selected at #12 (I don't think the heart issue is anything big). Oliver is my first choice, but I don't think he will be there.

 

I don't know how you could know this. There are so many mock drafts, he has been all over the place, like just about every player besides the top 10(ish). Besides it only takes one team to say yes and it doesn't matter what his draft "stock" is. Also no team is saying anything, so we don't know anybody's draft stock. I've seen mocks with Bush to the packers at 12 and at 30. That shows just one example of the variety of opinion.

 

[sarcasm]I can not reveal my sources.[/sarcasm]

 

The simple answer is that I don't know this. Welcome to an online forum where we share opinions.

 

I'm paying more attention to the trends than the actual picks themselves. Initially Hock and Fant rocketed up the mocks (Hock in top 10 and Fant at #5???). More recently, they seem to be cooling again (e.g. I'm seeing Hock in the teens and Fant at #30 more often recently).

 

Same with Bush. Early on he was around #30 (or even second round). I've not seen a recent one with him under #20. Not claiming any accuracy in that, but its what I watch.

 

Also, traditionally TEs don't go top 15 unless they are really special. Hock is described as "complete" but might be maxed out (i.e. high floor/low ceiling). If he had Fant's speed, he'd probably be top 10. So I'm thinking Hock in the #15-20 range and Fant in the #20-30 range.

 

 

I've seen people say that Hockenson could be a first round pick based on his inline blocking alone(likely hyperbole meant to illustrate how complete of a TE he is, but nonetheless), but that he's also the best route runner and has the best hands of any TE. That was yesterday. And the comp on him is a better blocking Kelce. I don't think that's a low ceiling type player. That's a low floor, very high cieling player.

[homer]

Trade down from #12, please.

[HiAndTight]

Here is the one having bush go 30. I get that, my point is that nobody knows, so it’s foolish to speculate on who is falling or rising. Even the “experts” don’t. It’s fun to speculate on who they will take and who you want, but that will most likely lead to disappointment.

 

 

 

http://www.nfl.com/draft/2019/mock-drafts/charles-davis/376552

 

To prove my point the same website has another mock from the same day with bush 12.

http://www.nfl.com/draft/2019/mock-drafts/Rhett-Lewis/376553

 

 

It's also what makes the draft fun. When Montez Sweat is taken with the 44th pick in the 2nd round or Burns is sitting there at 44 when we were talking about him at 12(just picking two names, though I can't fathom how anyone can say Sweat's enlarged heart isn't really a problem and Burns blew his interview with the Packers as badly as anyone I've heard in recent years).

[OnTheBlack]

Trade down from #12, please.

 

 

Wait to see who is available before you make a decision please.

[OnTheBlack]

No offense patrickgpe, but if you don't like speculation about the draft, why are you here conversing about it? Some of us like being armchair GMs.

 

 

Didn't he just say it's fun to speculate?

[CheezWizHed]

I've seen people say that Hockenson could be a first round pick based on his inline blocking alone(likely hyperbole meant to illustrate how complete of a TE he is, but nonetheless), but that he's also the best route runner and has the best hands of any TE. That was yesterday. And the comp on him is a better blocking Kelce. I don't think that's a low ceiling type player. That's a low floor, very high cieling player.

 

Hock was my original #12 pick crush back in January, so I've done quite a bit of reading about him. He was white hot for a while but cooled after the combine (from the perspective of people writing about him/mocking him). More recently, it seems that writers were summarizing him as I mentioned. Just so he doesn't fall down to the Vikings... lots of discussion in MN about him here.

 

If Oliver isn't at #12, Hock would be my second choice. If they take him at #12, I wouldn't complain. An ideal spot would be to drop down to 16 and pick up a pick with Hock.

 

Not sure if my crystal ball is working tonight or not though...

[young guns]

I guess the others have it.

[CheezWizHed]

yep. I heard absolutely zilch about anyone predicting Gary to the Pack.

[xisxisxis]

I Guess you forgot to put "screw it up" as an option....

[CheezWizHed]

I'll learn for next year!

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I Guess you forgot to put "screw it up" as an option....

 

Which NFL team or draft service do you work for?

[HiAndTight]

yep. I heard absolutely zilch about anyone predicting Gary to the Pack.

 

 

It's funny what you find when you're looking. Like you I hadn't heard anything about Gary to the Packers at 12. I actually saw a discussion about how someone would be "livid" if they drafted pass-rushing linemen like Oliver, Gary or even Wilkins(who I'd have prefered over Gary)..and actually said they weren't a fan of the real Aaron Donald the night before.

 

 

BUT, in any event, in going back and looking, I found quite a few sites that had Gary as a possibility to the Packers, on the NFL Network they mentioned Gary as being a good fit there.

 

And the more you read about him, the most I personally like. An edge rusher who Michigan moved inside to DT in their base because of his size, 6'4, 280, but who has the athletic ability, long arms, bend, and most importantly in my mind, the motor to play on the outside. I've said this several times, but when a guy comes in THAT highly regarded and he tests THAT well, you tend to think his problem is he plays with a lack of effort.

 

To me, it's just a case of not using him in the best situations. He probably needs some work on his technique, but you can't teach that type of size and athletic ability. That's Clowney territory there, Clowney, Mack, Miller type talent, and I'm sure all would have struggled if they were asked to play DT.

 

 

So while I wasn't real high on the pick, perhaps even if we wanted to trade back, he'd have been taken on talent alone. I think 12 is low enough to get this type of potential game-changing pass rusher.

 

 

What the selection of Savage shows and the rumors that both Baltimore and the Raiders were looking at him immediately following the Packers is that we don't really know what the hell is going on in these war rooms, we don't see what these scouts see and perceived "value" is created by guys who don't work for NFL teams.

 

 

Also, keep in mind, while the Packers lost a lot of front office talent the last couple years, there seems to be a belief around the league that they've restocked, picking off some of the top talent evaluators from teams like the Ravens like Nate Hendrickson, who hate to wait a full year to come to Green Bay as the Ravens blocked the Packers from talking to him as well as other highly respected scouts and front office personnel.

 

 

I've followed enough drafts and loved enough busts and hated enough studs(like when they traded out of the first round for a white WR'er from Ka St who had trouble catching the ball early in his career or when they passed up on an elite WR'er from Florida in Chad Jackson who went to the Pats while we got "stuck" with Greg Jennings) that I choose to take an optimistic view.

 

I honestly don't see the point in doing anything BUT that. We're all ignorant, none of us ACTUALLY know how good these guys are or will be, so rather than doing the hand wringing over what one site that is CONSISTENTLY waaaay off grades the picks, I tend to be an optimist. If they don't pan out, there will be plenty of time to crush my dreams!

[HiAndTight]

I get concerns on any of the 3 Clemson 1st round projects. You have 3 1st round talents on your line(or at least 1st rd talent) You play 15 games this year with only 2 being against top 20 level opponents, That trio put out 137 tackles, 41 for loss, 18.5 sacks. So 9 tackles a game, 2.6 for loss a game, 1.2 sacks a game. Out of the trio playing vs. majority college only level players. Vs. ND and Ala Lawrence didn't play, Ferrel and Wilkins combined for 1.5TFL vs ND and 1.5 Sacks which is just 1.5sacks 5 total tackles. 8 tackles, .5 sack, and 1.5TFL. I'd just expect more from lining up with that talent. I think at the next level it'll translate in to lackluster production compared to expectations. On the other spectrum, it makes Jonah Williams stand out more with the competition he faced and his results on the year. I can just feel the team will make a trade in the 1st either up from 30 or down from 12 while still getting the player they want and stealing that 2nd player they want.

Clemson played four teams that finished in the top 20 in the polls - Alabama, Notre Dame, Syracuse, and Texas A&M.

 

In the national championship game, Ferrell and Wilkins had more TFL (2.5) and sacks (0.5) than Quinnen Williams and Raekwon Davis (1.5, 0).

 

 

I don't watch 'Bama during the regular season, but out of those 4 players, in the games I've watched the past couple years, Davis has been the most impressive player to me.

 

That's on a TV at home, not coaches film obviously, but just guys who jump off the screen and absolutely dominate and get in the backfield.

 

I guess I'm wrong because if he was as good as those guys, he'd likely have entered this year, but he has looked like a man among boys in the CFB playoffs.

[patrickgpe]

No offense patrickgpe, but if you don't like speculation about the draft, why are you here conversing about it? Some of us like being armchair GMs.

 

point taken, my only point was that we don't know what really is going on, which turned out to be true. Hockenson's value was not falling as was speculated and he went about where I thought he would (7/8)

[HiAndTight]

No offense patrickgpe, but if you don't like speculation about the draft, why are you here conversing about it? Some of us like being armchair GMs.

 

point taken, my only point was that we don't know what really is going on, which turned out to be true. Hockenson's value was not falling as was speculated and he went about where I thought he would (7/8)

 

 

You also literally said, "It's fun to speculate" but then added the caveat that you'll likely end up disappointed. Which is what happened. We speculated and of course we had the guys we wanted falling and when they didn't and we took the most talented player available, people were upset because he wasn't the guy we wanted.

 

But we seldom end up with the guy we predict. Sometimes it comes from a group like with Clark, Jones, King, but more often than not, it's not someone we would have guessed at all.

[CheezWizHed]

Yes, I have no problems being wrong about the draft. We are having fun guessing and predicting. Of course, I had some right and some wrong. As did everyone else.