When Will Keston Hiura Arrive In Milwaukee?

[Oxy]

Hernan Perez has been invalvuable this series: and this is coming from a guy who thought they should bring Hiura up. His defense and and dinger today are likely WAY more productive than whatever Hiura could have done. All those DPs look great when they are converted...

[Eye Black]

When does he get past the Super Two cutoff? Has anybody calculated that?

There is no way to know for sure, it depends where the cutoff is going to be set when calculated in a few years. The goal would be that at the end of 2021 his total number of service days would be outside of the top 22% of players with between two and three seasons of MLB service. Below are the past cutoffs for number of service years and days...

 

2018: 2.134

2017: 2.123

2016: 2.131

2015: 2.130

2014: 2.133

2013: 2.122

2012: 2.140

2011: 2.146

2010: 2.122

2009: 2.139

 

On June 1st there will be a 121 service days remaining in 2019. That would be lower than any number in the past decade, and likely safe from the Super Two cutoff. Tuesday, May 21st would be 132 service days remaining which is very close to the typical cutoff. This coming Monday would be 140 service days remaining and would very likely be on the wrong side of the Super Two cutoff.

[adambr2]

Hernan Perez has been invalvuable this series: and this is coming from a guy who thought they should bring Hiura up. His defense and and dinger today are likely WAY more productive than whatever Hiura could have done. All those DPs look great when they are converted...

 

Hernan Perez can play anywhere. He is not preventing a Hiura callup nor would Hiura prevent Perez from playing if needed. Also, Perez had a nice day but to say what he did is "way" more productive than anything Hiura could have done is certainly a bit of hyperbole.

[adambr2]

When does he get past the Super Two cutoff? Has anybody calculated that?

There is no way to know for sure, it depends where the cutoff is going to be set when calculated in a few years. The goal would be that in 2021 his total number of services days would be outside of the top 22% of players with between two and three seasons of MLB service. Below are the past cutoffs for number of service years and days...

 

2018: 2.134

2017: 2.123

2016: 2.131

2015: 2.130

2014: 2.133

2013: 2.122

2012: 2.140

2011: 2.146

2010: 2.122

2009: 2.139

 

On June 1st there will be a 121 service days remaining in 2019. That would be lower than any number in the past decade, and likely safe from the Super Two cutoff. Tuesday, May 21st would be 132 service days remaining which is very close to the typical cutoff. This coming Monday would be 140 service days remaining and would very likely be on the wrong side of the Super Two cutoff.

 

Thing is, you can get him up now and still make sure he misses the cutoff. Just plan to send him down for awhile later when you've got some righty heavy matchups coming up or he goes into a bit of a slump.

[Oxy]

Hernan Perez has been invalvuable this series: and this is coming from a guy who thought they should bring Hiura up. His defense and and dinger today are likely WAY more productive than whatever Hiura could have done. All those DPs look great when they are converted...

 

Hernan Perez can play anywhere. He is not preventing a Hiura callup nor would Hiura prevent Perez from playing if needed. Also, Perez had a nice day but to say what he did is "way" more productive than anything Hiura could have done is certainly a bit of hyperbole.

 

Kinda. We ended up losing today, so it's much easier to say that. Hiura can't DH, and there have been more than a couple plays this series that a poor-ish defensive second basemen wouldn't have made.

[brewcrewdue80]

Perez did get the HR today, otherwise garbage at the plate. Yesterday's game I remember he was up with a runner or 2 on after a walk I believe and he swung 1st pitch 2nd or 3rd out when Quintana was dealing at a low pitch count. 0-3 RISP that game. 2 ABs today the HR and GIDP. Hiura is batting over .500 when RISP and led the fall league I recall in RBI leading to his MVP. Shaw immediately provided a bb and 3ks in 4 PAs today. Now 1-14 vs the Cubs this season. It's a mistake playing him vs the Cubs who absolutely own him. 6 for 45 last season. That's a 118 BA the last 23games vs the Cubs. Send him down to AAA when facing the Cubs, play Hiura. No Brainer. But what do I know? They're the ones with the analytics and run out deadbeat Shaw vs the Cubs when it shows they shouldn't.

[82brewcrew82]

Hernan Perez has been invalvuable this series: and this is coming from a guy who thought they should bring Hiura up. His defense and and dinger today are likely WAY more productive than whatever Hiura could have done. All those DPs look great when they are converted...

 

Hernan Perez can play anywhere. He is not preventing a Hiura callup nor would Hiura prevent Perez from playing if needed. Also, Perez had a nice day but to say what he did is "way" more productive than anything Hiura could have done is certainly a bit of hyperbole.

 

Kinda. We ended up losing today, so it's much easier to say that. Hiura can't DH, and there have been more than a couple plays this series that a poor-ish defensive second basemen wouldn't have made.

Why would losing one game have anything to do with one's opinion on this matter? Why does having poor-ish defense matter at second base to this team. I mean, we start a third basemen there every game. No one is talking about replacing Perez for Hiura. That whole statement doesn't make much sense to me.

[DuWayne Steurer]

Hiura could come up and hit to a .550 OPS just like Shaw or Aguilar. There shouldn't just be an automatic assumption that he's going to come up and immediately rake off of major league pitching. Lewis Brinson has been up for a year and a half and hasn't cracked a .200 batting average yet. There's very very few guys who are "can't miss", and I'm not sure Hiura is in that category.

 

I'm pretty sure he can't do worse than Shaw at this point, but there seems to be a lot of assumption that he's going to just jump in and start winning games. If he's brought up, I hope he plays every day and hits like 2007 Ryan Braun, I just don't know that that's the expectation we should have.

[wildcat2237]

Hiura could come up and hit to a .550 OPS just like Shaw or Aguilar. There shouldn't just be an automatic assumption that he's going to come up and immediately rake off of major league pitching. Lewis Brinson has been up for a year and a half and hasn't cracked a .200 batting average yet. There's very very few guys who are "can't miss", and I'm not sure Hiura is in that category.

 

I'm pretty sure he can't do worse than Shaw at this point, but there seems to be a lot of assumption that he's going to just jump in and start winning games. If he's brought up, I hope he plays every day and hits like 2007 Ryan Braun, I just don't know that that's the expectation we should have.

 

Hiura has done nothing but hit his entire career.

 

He is what scouts refer to as a "pure hitter."

 

I don't think anyone is suggesting that he comes up and posts a .320 BA with a .380 OBP.

 

However a .280 BA with a .350 OBP is not out of the realm. That would be better than what Shaw is posting.

[JohnBriggs12]

Perez did get the HR today, otherwise garbage at the plate. Yesterday's game I remember he was up with a runner or 2 on after a walk I believe and he swung 1st pitch 2nd or 3rd out when Quintana was dealing at a low pitch count. 0-3 RISP that game. 2 ABs today the HR and GIDP. Hiura is batting over .500 when RISP and led the fall league I recall in RBI leading to his MVP. Shaw immediately provided a bb and 3ks in 4 PAs today. Now 1-14 vs the Cubs this season. It's a mistake playing him vs the Cubs who absolutely own him. 6 for 45 last season. That's a 118 BA the last 23games vs the Cubs. Send him down to AAA when facing the Cubs, play Hiura. No Brainer. But what do I know? They're the ones with the analytics and run out deadbeat Shaw vs the Cubs when it shows they shouldn't.

 

Perez saved one if not more runs with his defense on Friday. He made one spectacular play, and another very good one.

[HiAndTight]

Perez did get the HR today, otherwise garbage at the plate. Yesterday's game I remember he was up with a runner or 2 on after a walk I believe and he swung 1st pitch 2nd or 3rd out when Quintana was dealing at a low pitch count. 0-3 RISP that game. 2 ABs today the HR and GIDP. Hiura is batting over .500 when RISP and led the fall league I recall in RBI leading to his MVP. Shaw immediately provided a bb and 3ks in 4 PAs today. Now 1-14 vs the Cubs this season. It's a mistake playing him vs the Cubs who absolutely own him. 6 for 45 last season. That's a 118 BA the last 23games vs the Cubs. Send him down to AAA when facing the Cubs, play Hiura. No Brainer. But what do I know? They're the ones with the analytics and run out deadbeat Shaw vs the Cubs when it shows they shouldn't.

 

 

You don't send just send a guy like Shaw down vs the Cubs because he's struggled vs them. If you'd send him down, it'd be because he's struggling in general. Not because of 23 games vs ONE team. That's absurd. Again, back to back 4 ~4 WAR seasons.

 

I wasn't against bringing up Hiura for the Cubs series and then sending him back down, but Shaw shouldn't be the one to go down. Not yet anyway. He's earned the right to get himself straight here. If he's still struggling in another month, that's a different story. Send him down with the understanding that it'll be for 5-6 games, 10 at the most and then he'll be back up. If it's July and he's still hitting this poorly, then you have your solution. But I suspect he'll turn things around as Aguilar has very slowly started to.

 

Also, just annoying taking a shot at the Brewers analytical staff. They've MORE than proven themselves. Their defensive ranking along justifies what they do. We're not among the best in the league defensively(or the best as we were recent) because we've got 8 Simmons type defensive players playing for us. We've got a guy who would have been nearly unplayable at 2nd base 10 years ago doing just fine there now because of how they position their players.

[HiAndTight]

Hiura could come up and hit to a .550 OPS just like Shaw or Aguilar. There shouldn't just be an automatic assumption that he's going to come up and immediately rake off of major league pitching. Lewis Brinson has been up for a year and a half and hasn't cracked a .200 batting average yet. There's very very few guys who are "can't miss", and I'm not sure Hiura is in that category.

 

I'm pretty sure he can't do worse than Shaw at this point, but there seems to be a lot of assumption that he's going to just jump in and start winning games. If he's brought up, I hope he plays every day and hits like 2007 Ryan Braun, I just don't know that that's the expectation we should have.

 

 

Lewis Brinson and Keson Hiura's profiles are about as different as can possibly be.

 

And to your point, Yelich could post a .550 OPS over the next 140 PA's, but that's pretty unlikely. Not that I'm comparing Keston and Yellich, just saying baseball's a difficult game and comparing one players strugles struggles to another is a fool's errand. But your post is just full of false narratives. Nobody said he's going to be the next Ryan Braun and Lewis Brinson's struggles don't reflect upon him at all. Brinson was always a boom or bust type prospect.

 

 

I've always thought that Keston would make an immediate impact. His K rate this year is giving me a little reason to pause, but without watching him, I don't know if it's a result of him trying to hit for more power and chasing or the pitchers in AAA who know how to pitch, but don't have the stuff of the guys in AAA are finding holes. Still, his production can't be ignored. He'll likely provide a spark at some point, but it's pointless to get worked up because it didn't happen for 3 games and then send him back down.

 

 

 

And for the record, the Brewers may very well have lost the first game vs the Cubs without that run scoring play Perez made. That would have tired the game up if he hadn't knocked it down, but he not only got to it, he made a great throw from short right to get the runner.

 

I realize we went on to score 2 in each of the final 3 innings, but if the Cubs rally there, that changes the entire complex of the game. Big, run-saving defensive plays often do. So he has hit a HR and made one huge play along with a couple of other really nice defensive plays in the first two games.

 

Not sure that for a 3 game series, we'd have been that much better served by bringing up Keston.

[Eye Black]

There is no way to know for sure, it depends where the cutoff is going to be set when calculated in a few years. The goal would be that in 2021 his total number of services days would be outside of the top 22% of players with between two and three seasons of MLB service. Below are the past cutoffs for number of service years and days...

 

2018: 2.134

2017: 2.123

2016: 2.131

2015: 2.130

2014: 2.133

2013: 2.122

2012: 2.140

2011: 2.146

2010: 2.122

2009: 2.139

 

On June 1st there will be a 121 service days remaining in 2019. That would be lower than any number in the past decade, and likely safe from the Super Two cutoff. Tuesday, May 21st would be 132 service days remaining which is very close to the typical cutoff. This coming Monday would be 140 service days remaining and would very likely be on the wrong side of the Super Two cutoff.

 

Thing is, you can get him up now and still make sure he misses the cutoff. Just plan to send him down for awhile later when you've got some righty heavy matchups coming up or he goes into a bit of a slump.

That is true, but I am curious if that is an approach they are willing to take with a top prospect? To this point the only top position prospect called up during Stearns’ tenure is Orlando Arcia, and it is hard to glean much from that example. They called Arcia up in early August of 2016 and then kept him up the entire next season. It wasn’t until his performance dictated being sent down last season that he was shuttled to the minors. Certainly a different set of circumstances in many respects.

 

Does anyone remember or know of an example of a top hitting prospect that was called up early in a season and then sent back to the minors seemingly for service time manipulation? There may very well be some, but I can’t think of a recent example. There are examples of guys like Kyle Tucker being called up midseason who returned back to the minors, but that was mostly performance driven.

 

When they do ultimately call Hiura up I think it would be in his best interest for it to be within the context of being a major league contributor for the foreseeable future. Obviously performance could dictate other outcomes, but I will be somewhat surprised if they call him up with idea of shuttling him back to Triple-A very shortly thereafter.

[ClosetBrewerFan]

Does anyone remember or know of an example of a top hitting prospect that was called up early in a season and then sent back to the minors seemingly for service time manipulation? There may very well be some, but I can’t think of a recent example. There are examples of guys like Kyle Tucker being called up midseason who returned back to the minors, but that was mostly performance driven.

 

Fielder was called up in mid June and then sent down two weeks later. I think that was more to hit as the DH than to manipulate service time. But he had an 857 OPS when they sent him down.

[Jenkins5]

Most examples was the old inter league schedule. Brewers would bring up Prince & other top bats so the could DH for a week or two. Since inter-league is now year round & spread out, teams don’t usually do it anymore.

 

Injuries tend to be only time a top prospect is called up with intent to go back down.

[Eye Black]

I guess one not exactly apples-to-apples comparison of a recent post call-up service time manipulation is Tampa Bay sent Austin Meadows to Triple-A last August/September after they acquired him from the Pirates even though he had been holding his own at the major league level since mid-May.

[sveumrules]

Shaw, Moustakas, and Yelich were a combined 0 for 13 today.

 

Lefties are 3 for 25 in this series. This lineup is really handicapped against a team with solid lefty arms.

 

There is a major problem with the quality of righty bats on this team. There is not a single righty bat north of an .800 OPS on this roster. They need Keston Hiura in this lineup, sooner rather than later.

 

vs LHP 256/334/471

vs RHP 237/319/415

 

We've actually been better vs LHP than vs RHP to this point in the season.

 

Really handicapped vs lefties, even worse vs righties, 24-17, not bad.

[adambr2]

Shaw, Moustakas, and Yelich were a combined 0 for 13 today.

 

Lefties are 3 for 25 in this series. This lineup is really handicapped against a team with solid lefty arms.

 

There is a major problem with the quality of righty bats on this team. There is not a single righty bat north of an .800 OPS on this roster. They need Keston Hiura in this lineup, sooner rather than later.

 

vs LHP 256/334/471

vs RHP 237/319/415

 

We've actually been better vs LHP than vs RHP to this point in the season.

 

Really handicapped vs lefties, even worse vs righties, 24-17, not bad.

 

This is true, but it's partly again a statement about our righty bats -- they're not very high quality as it is but naturally far worse against RHP. The LHP numbers are skewed because we usually keep our worst L/L bats from LHP pitching (Shaw, Thames) and we don't usually have that luxury against RHP, and Yelich is generally awesome against anyone.

 

This wasn't a statement against the team as a whole or their record, but they could definitely use a quality RHB in the lineup.

[brewcrewdue80]

Perez did get the HR today, otherwise garbage at the plate. Yesterday's game I remember he was up with a runner or 2 on after a walk I believe and he swung 1st pitch 2nd or 3rd out when Quintana was dealing at a low pitch count. 0-3 RISP that game. 2 ABs today the HR and GIDP. Hiura is batting over .500 when RISP and led the fall league I recall in RBI leading to his MVP. Shaw immediately provided a bb and 3ks in 4 PAs today. Now 1-14 vs the Cubs this season. It's a mistake playing him vs the Cubs who absolutely own him. 6 for 45 last season. That's a 118 BA the last 23games vs the Cubs. Send him down to AAA when facing the Cubs, play Hiura. No Brainer. But what do I know? They're the ones with the analytics and run out deadbeat Shaw vs the Cubs when it shows they shouldn't.

 

 

You don't send just send a guy like Shaw down vs the Cubs because he's struggled vs them. If you'd send him down, it'd be because he's struggling in general. Not because of 23 games vs ONE team. That's absurd. Again, back to back 4 ~4 WAR seasons.

 

I wasn't against bringing up Hiura for the Cubs series and then sending him back down, but Shaw shouldn't be the one to go down. Not yet anyway. He's earned the right to get himself straight here. If he's still struggling in another month, that's a different story. Send him down with the understanding that it'll be for 5-6 games, 10 at the most and then he'll be back up. If it's July and he's still hitting this poorly, then you have your solution. But I suspect he'll turn things around as Aguilar has very slowly started to.

 

Also, just annoying taking a shot at the Brewers analytical staff. They've MORE than proven themselves. Their defensive ranking along justifies what they do. We're not among the best in the league defensively(or the best as we were recent) because we've got 8 Simmons type defensive players playing for us. We've got a guy who would have been nearly unplayable at 2nd base 10 years ago doing just fine there now because of how they position their players.

 

We're shuttling guys for the bullpen. Shaw has options, he should be optioned. Yeah he's 23games bad vs the Cubs in last 1season+ but in case you failed to notice he's at .554OPS in This season!. That's a 38game sample not just vs. the Cubs.

 

If he has options, then he doesn't deserve the long leash due to the last two seasons. He's hurting this team. Folks are calling to trade Thames so you can platoon Aguilar and Shaw! Thames is the good bat in this idea and you want to play duds to this point on the season. Not you personally H&T. You signed Moose to a 1year deal. You have complete flexibilty here to move a contributing bat to a place being a negative to the team and bring up a potential much needed positive bat at 2b. I'd be asking the same thing with Aguilar but he doesn't have any options. Shaw does. You optioned Arcia at SS last season on June 30th when he was below .500OPS, below .200 BA, below .300 OB. who plays a premium SS defensively and had Saladino a career .600s OPS play SS. Moustakas is a career .741OPS with 3 of his last 4 seasons above .800OPS. And an .852 going thus far this season. For whatever reason Shaw's poor performance that on going you can play someone with upside while Shaw figures out what is wrong.

 

As to Perez' contribution the last 2 games and dismissing what Hiura may have brought, he is only playing at 2b because Shaw isn't starting at 3b and Moose is. If you had any confidence in Shaw, Moose would have been playing at 2b. Perez on the bench negating that contribution argument over what Hiura may provide.

[True Blue Brew Crew]

We're making this way too complicated talking about hypotheticals of Hiura coming up and struggling or lighting the world on fire. It's actually pretty simple. If you have a highly skilled player dominating at a lower level (in this case AAA) and have a need at the MLB level, you bring the player up. The added caveat being avoiding Super 2 if this is a player you project wanting to control for an extra year. If Shaw continues to be a negative or an injury occurs, you bring Hiura up the moment you're sure you have the extra year of control.

 

Guesses as to how well he'll hit in Milwaukee have no bearing on whether he should be called up once Super 2 passes. The goal is to win MLB games. If a hitter gets hurt or Shaw continues to have a hole in his bat, who the heck else should get the call other than Hiura?

[adambr2]

Well, it's a 100% certainty at this point for Hiura that the "7th" service year has been acquired. It's just a matter of 4 arbitration seasons or 3 right now.

[rickh150]

Does Shaw have an option?

[Oxy]

I thought the timing would have been right to bring him up for this series due to the matchups (3 lefties), it being the Cubs (important games), and our rested bullpen (off day on Thursday before the series) which would have allowed us to carry 12 pitchers. Once we needed 13 pitchers we could have sent him back down--and it wouldn't have been too weird regarding service time manipulation as we don't have any other bats we could/should send down (except Shaw, but he's a lefty and is established thus makes more sense to keep on the roster than Hiura for most games.

 

As it turned out, the 15 inning game meant we did need the 13th pitcher (although if Perez wasn't playing 2nd, perhaps we lose 1-0 in 9 innings instead).

 

Anyways, I think the window has passed for his cup of coffee (unless we have another stretch of games against a lot of lefties in the next month, in which case perhaps we swap him out for Shaw for a week or so over that stretch if Shaw hasn't come around yet).

[Oxy]

Well, it's a 100% certainty at this point for Hiura that the "7th" service year has been acquired. It's just a matter of 4 arbitration seasons or 3 right now.

 

If Shaw starts to hit and nobody gets hurt, then there isn't a spot for Hiura on the roster for the rest of the summer. Then you start to think about bringing him up at the end of August for a month+playoffs--Then starting him off in AAA next year until June or so. That would gain an 8th year of control for the Brewers--but would quite obviously be service time manipulation if he continues to hit like he has. Although he is still pretty green at 2nd base, so the Brewers could use the excuse that his glove needed more seasoning at AAA--and that likely wouldn't be an incorrect position to take.

[djoctagone]

Does Shaw have an option?

viewtopic.php?f=64&t=37695