When Will Keston Hiura Arrive In Milwaukee?

[Fear The Chorizo]

Would it work if we did something similar when we acquired Jon Schoop last season? Have Keston play SS, 2B and rotate Moose/Shaw/Arcia

 

No - when Hiura comes up he's playing 2B and the corresponding roster moves would either be DFA-ing one of the marginal players currently on the 40 man roster that you could hopefully get through waivers (Freitas, Hart, Wilkerson level guys), or working out some sort of trade to make room. He's not nearly a good enough defender to consider him playing SS (or primary infielder considering how the Brewers utilize defensive shifting).

 

The corresponding MLB 25 man roster move should then be figuring out the best option to both improve your offense and maintain roster flexibility (i.e., don't risk losing someone on the MLB roster for nothing in return by having to send him to the minors). With Shaw still struggling mightily at the plate and with still having minor league options, the current best approach would be to option Shaw to AAA for awhile, move Moose over to 3rd, and insert Hiura as the everyday 2B. Shaw could snap out of his funk and Hiura may slump to make this discussion moot and push his initial callup later into 2019 - but right now this move makes too much sense not to think seriously about it.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I'm all for Hiura coming up at some point this year if his hot hitting at San Antonio continues, but I think it would be downright irresponsible to even think about bringing him up before the Super 2 cut-off in early June. I'd gladly trade another few weeks of Shaw trying to get right, or even more playing time for Perez, for an extra year of "in his prime" control for Keston several years from now. Yeah, it sucks for the players, but you have to use the system to the best advantage both for the short and long term success of the team.

 

But if we get to the beginning of June, and Shaw is still scuffling while Keston continues to tear the cover off the ball, I think we could see a move.

 

Why can't they plan to bring him up for a few weeks and then send him back down til sometime in the second half? The "Super two" cut-off only matters if the guy stays up permanently. And it doesn't add a year of control, it just cheapens one of his years of control. He's an extension candidate too, so it may not matter one way or the other.

 

That is a good point regarding an extension. I have a hard time seeing him going back down once he's up, though. The only way that happens is if he scuffles at the plate, and it's getting harder to see that happening with each game. He's exceeded my expectations for him at AAA. I think once he's up, he's up, and they'll sort out the pieces along the way.

[Brew crew 92]

I'm all for Hiura coming up at some point this year if his hot hitting at San Antonio continues, but I think it would be downright irresponsible to even think about bringing him up before the Super 2 cut-off in early June. I'd gladly trade another few weeks of Shaw trying to get right, or even more playing time for Perez, for an extra year of "in his prime" control for Keston several years from now. Yeah, it sucks for the players, but you have to use the system to the best advantage both for the short and long term success of the team.

 

But if we get to the beginning of June, and Shaw is still scuffling while Keston continues to tear the cover off the ball, I think we could see a move.

 

Why can't they plan to bring him up for a few weeks and then send him back down til sometime in the second half? The "Super two" cut-off only matters if the guy stays up permanently. And it doesn't add a year of control, it just cheapens one of his years of control. He's an extension candidate too, so it may not matter one way or the other.

 

Yes.

This is the player we sign to a team friendly Eloy Jiménez type deal ASAP. Lock him up for 8 years, thru his prime. Come on DS get er done.

[OldHeidelberg]

It is sort of starting to feel like a Ryan Braun situation, he is just too good a hitter to keep down much longer. We have a couple of regulars hitting around .175 on May 7, not disagreeing they need to wait a couple of weeks especially now that they have put together some wins but someone is going to have to make way for him soon even if it needs to be one less pitcher.

[MrTPlush]

I could be wrong but the people who aren't expecting much from Hiura, even calling for him to be traded, just don't seem to be very familiar with him as a talent. Do they know why he's been tabbed an elite hitter? Do they know how the ball jumps off his bat? I keep hearing about all these touted prospects who struggle out of the gate. And of the ones who never amounted to anything. Well, some of them actually do hit from day one. The Brewers even have an example of one who to this day often mans LF most nights. l'll sing it from the rooftops again, I expect Hiura to be one of those instant impact bats. Sticking with my preseason call that he's the 2nd best bat in the organization behind only Yelich. I could be wrong.

 

I don't know about that. Having cautious optimism doesn't mean people aren't familiar with Hiura as a talent. Hiura is certainly doing everything a prospect of his caliber is expected to do at the AAA level, and his future appears extremely bright. But at the same time, it is so, so rare for a player to come up and immediately be a game-changing type hitter. Perhaps Hiura is one of those ultra rare talents. But yeah, this team has probably only had one or two of those types in its history.

 

For the record ... I hope you are right, because that would be pretty dang terrific.

 

At this point, if he ends up worse than Rickie Weeks, I'd be disappointed. He basically is Rickie Weeks circa 2005 right now (same caliber...slightly less power, Ks, and BBs, better contact). If his career clones Rickie's (but a bit healthier), I can't say I'd be happy, but I'd be foolish to not be satisfied.

 

I mean I would be pretty happy. Pre injuries he was a solid 3+ WAR player. If you told me any player we had was going to put up 3+ WAR yearly I would be happy. I mean Weeks could have been even better minus the multiple wrist surgeries...who knows. Too many top prospects fail. Any time you can get a guy to be fringe AS caliber is pretty good. But I guess I don't view Hiura as a Braun/Fielder type prospect...if you do then maybe your standards are a bit higher.

 

Now if you told me peak Hiura was going to last like 2-3 years....well that would be pretty disappointing.

[reillymcshane]

While past behavior isn't always predictive of future behavior, we have traditionally given established players a long leash before doing something.

 

While Hiura is doing great, I think the club will want to give Shaw and Aguilar a little more time to come around. By waiting another month, the club can honestly say that they gave both guys a solid chance to turn their games around. Also, it pushes keeps Hiura out of the Super 2 class, which saves the team millions. Note, I don't necessarily agree with this strategy, but it is what I think we will do.

 

If Shaw and/Aguilar is sucking wind a month from now, and Hiura is raking, I think you could see a move. What move, I don't know. But we can't have our corner infielders hitting sub-.200 and expect to contend.

 

If Hiura is brought up, he'll go to 2B. Moose can move to 3B. If Shaw is optioned or whatever, we are set. If we do something with Aguilar - well you move Shaw over to 1B.

[Jopal78]

I take it back. We won't see Hiura until 2020 when San Francisco plays in Milwaukee, because Stearns will have to deal him in order to land Madison Bumgarner.

[pitchleague]

I'll be honest. I'd like to see Huira come up for a couple of weeks and send Shaw down for a couple of weeks. Shaw can (hopefully) get his head screwed on straight by clubbing AAA pitching for a couple of weeks and Huira can get a cup of coffee. Then they switch back and (again, hopefully) Shaw would keep hitting after getting some AAA success and Huira will continue to be ready if needed.

 

Of course, this is all dependent on both players meeting those expectations.

[Never Outhustled]

It's funny the extremes fans go to. A fake injury for Shaw? Not surprising, I had to call people out in Hiura's first year with the team because they wanted to give Keston TJ surgery. This despite the fact that his elbow wasn't a complete tear. What a disaster that would have been.

 

Hiura is another Braun, I've said that from the beginning. We'll see him in about a month.

 

Shaw is super exciting. When his numbers even out he'll carry us for awhile. With Shaw and Moose here, we'll be able to work Keston in as a 4-5 games a week starter, instead of just throwing him to the wolves.

 

Shaw and Moose could then also be the reserve 1B. Thames is the obvious player to look to deal. It will also mean less IF starts for Perez, another positive.

 

I agree with Reilly that Hiura can come up after Shaw and Jesus stabilize.

[brewcrewdue80]

I'm all for Hiura coming up at some point this year if his hot hitting at San Antonio continues, but I think it would be downright irresponsible to even think about bringing him up before the Super 2 cut-off in early June. I'd gladly trade another few weeks of Shaw trying to get right, or even more playing time for Perez, for an extra year of "in his prime" control for Keston several years from now. Yeah, it sucks for the players, but you have to use the system to the best advantage both for the short and long term success of the team.

 

But if we get to the beginning of June, and Shaw is still scuffling while Keston continues to tear the cover off the ball, I think we could see a move.

 

Yeah it was mentioned on Super 2 we already control him 7 seasons upon calling him up. He just goes through 4 years of Arbitration vs a 4th year of major league minimum. I'm just in the mindset that clearly these days you lock up guys that go through your farm with these expectations pretty early. Takes out the Super 2/Arb worries like that.

 

Someone then mentioned to do the extension for 8 years. I never quite get that. You control Hiura through 2025 and that 8th year would only be 2026. Any extension should go for 3 years where you have options to pick up in year 9 or just 10. You're likely getting the best value with the added non-FA years than the typical extension price. You'd probably get in the 13mil range vs the 20 or higher he's getting in FA or commanding. You also lock down that avoidance to a very high Arb year.

 

So, Bring him up and see the kid produce or not. Or not can always mean sending him down and rewinding that clock before Super 2 status.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I'm all for Hiura coming up at some point this year if his hot hitting at San Antonio continues, but I think it would be downright irresponsible to even think about bringing him up before the Super 2 cut-off in early June. I'd gladly trade another few weeks of Shaw trying to get right, or even more playing time for Perez, for an extra year of "in his prime" control for Keston several years from now. Yeah, it sucks for the players, but you have to use the system to the best advantage both for the short and long term success of the team.

 

But if we get to the beginning of June, and Shaw is still scuffling while Keston continues to tear the cover off the ball, I think we could see a move.

 

Yeah it was mentioned on Super 2 we already control him 7 seasons upon calling him up. He just goes through 4 years of Arbitration vs a 4th year of major league minimum. I'm just in the mindset that clearly these days you lock up guys that go through your farm with these expectations pretty early. Takes out the Super 2/Arb worries like that.

 

Someone then mentioned to do the extension for 8 years. I never quite get that. You control Hiura through 2025 and that 8th year would only be 2026. Any extension should go for 3 years where you have options to pick up in year 9 or just 10. You're likely getting the best value with the added non-FA years than the typical extension price. You'd probably get in the 13mil range vs the 20 or higher he's getting in FA or commanding. You also lock down that avoidance to a very high Arb year.

 

So, Bring him up and see the kid produce or not. Or not can always mean sending him down and rewinding that clock before Super 2 status.

 

Good points. The exact rules of Super 2 were a tad lost in translation on my end Still, that extra year of cheap control is of great value, especially with a budget-conscious mid to small-market club.

[willjski23]

Would it work if we did something similar when we acquired Jon Schoop last season? Have Keston play SS, 2B and rotate Moose/Shaw/Arcia

 

No - when Hiura comes up he's playing 2B and the corresponding roster moves would either be DFA-ing one of the marginal players currently on the 40 man roster that you could hopefully get through waivers (Freitas, Hart, Wilkerson level guys), or working out some sort of trade to make room. He's not nearly a good enough defender to consider him playing SS (or primary infielder considering how the Brewers utilize defensive shifting).

 

The corresponding MLB 25 man roster move should then be figuring out the best option to both improve your offense and maintain roster flexibility (i.e., don't risk losing someone on the MLB roster for nothing in return by having to send him to the minors). With Shaw still struggling mightily at the plate and with still having minor league options, the current best approach would be to option Shaw to AAA for awhile, move Moose over to 3rd, and insert Hiura as the everyday 2B. Shaw could snap out of his funk and Hiura may slump to make this discussion moot and push his initial callup later into 2019 - but right now this move makes too much sense not to think seriously about it.

 

 

Ahh good points! Shaw could get going any time. It sucks we only have moose under contract for this season, hes mad a good transition to 2B but hes much better over at 3B. I can't wait to see Keston in the majors.

[sveumrules]

I take it back. We won't see Hiura until 2020 when San Francisco plays in Milwaukee, because Stearns will have to deal him in order to land Madison Bumgarner.

 

Who was the last consensus top 20 prospect traded for a half season rental?

[RollieTime]

The thing with continuing to wait on Hiura until Super 2 passes is the impact he could of had for us in the next month or so before then. Could he of made the difference in us winning 2 more games in that span? We all know how important each game is. Look at how 2017 and 2018 worked out for us the final weekend.

 

I understand waiting to save some money, but Hiura is going to be an immediate impact bat like Braun was, with less power early on in his career than Braun had. Hiura is the most legit prospect we have had since Braun. Hiura coming up now/very soon or coming up another 30 games from now could be the difference between making the playoffs and not making it, especially with the struggles Shaw has had so far this season.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I take it back. We won't see Hiura until 2020 when San Francisco plays in Milwaukee, because Stearns will have to deal him in order to land Madison Bumgarner.

 

Who was the last consensus top 20 prospect traded for a half season rental?

 

Gleyber Torres in 2016 when he was dealt by the Cubs for Chapman I think.

[Brew crew 92]

I'm all for Hiura coming up at some point this year if his hot hitting at San Antonio continues, but I think it would be downright irresponsible to even think about bringing him up before the Super 2 cut-off in early June. I'd gladly trade another few weeks of Shaw trying to get right, or even more playing time for Perez, for an extra year of "in his prime" control for Keston several years from now. Yeah, it sucks for the players, but you have to use the system to the best advantage both for the short and long term success of the team.

 

But if we get to the beginning of June, and Shaw is still scuffling while Keston continues to tear the cover off the ball, I think we could see a move.

 

Yeah it was mentioned on Super 2 we already control him 7 seasons upon calling him up. He just goes through 4 years of Arbitration vs a 4th year of major league minimum. I'm just in the mindset that clearly these days you lock up guys that go through your farm with these expectations pretty early. Takes out the Super 2/Arb worries like that.

 

Someone then mentioned to do the extension for 8 years. I never quite get that. You control Hiura through 2025 and that 8th year would only be 2026. Any extension should go for 3 years where you have options to pick up in year 9 or just 10. You're likely getting the best value with the added non-FA years than the typical extension price. You'd probably get in the 13mil range vs the 20 or higher he's getting in FA or commanding. You also lock down that avoidance to a very high Arb year.

 

So, Bring him up and see the kid produce or not. Or not can always mean sending him down and rewinding that clock before Super 2 status.

 

Good points. The exact rules of Super 2 were a tad lost in translation on my end Still, that extra year of cheap control is of great value, especially with a budget-conscious mid to small-market club.

 

Love seeing the mid to small-market used to accurately describe where we are as a franchise in relation to the other teams. Other than myself, don’t think I’ve ever seen anyone on this site say anything other than small market brewers, nice to see.

 

Anyhow I said the Eloy Jiménez type extension ( 6 yrs at 43 mil with 2 club options at 16.5 and 18.5 ) because of the fact Eloy when signed hadn’t played in a big league game, Like Hiura, with a prospect ranking similar, bout as close a comparable as can get. I’d love for the team to get another year or two, but for that to happen a Precident would have to be set.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Love seeing the mid to small-market used to accurately describe where we are as a franchise in relation to the other teams. Other than myself, don’t think I’ve ever seen anyone on this site say anything other than small market brewers, nice to see.

 

Anyhow I said the Eloy Jiménez type extension ( 6 yrs at 43 mil with 2 club options at 16.5 and 18.5 ) because of the fact Eloy when signed hadn’t played in a big league game, Like Hiura, with a prospect ranking similar, bout as close a comparable as can get. I’d love for the team to get another year or two, but for that to happen a Precident would have to be set.

 

Those extension situations are always easier said than done, because you need to have interest from both sides in doing it. Until it does (if it does), it is in the team's best interest to play the Super 2 game. If Hiura's camp is interested, I'm sure Stearns and company would take a hard look at doing it, as it makes solid financial sense from the team's perspective.

 

Also, I include "mid-market" with the caveat that likely the only thing making the Brewers a mid-market team is the fact that they are a playoff contender and have several highly marketable players that have increased national exposure and, therefore, the fanbase. If that changes, they'll be back to being one of the smallest markets pretty quick, as the market itself has not gotten demonstrably larger.

[Brew crew 92]

Love seeing the mid to small-market used to accurately describe where we are as a franchise in relation to the other teams. Other than myself, don’t think I’ve ever seen anyone on this site say anything other than small market brewers, nice to see.

 

Anyhow I said the Eloy Jiménez type extension ( 6 yrs at 43 mil with 2 club options at 16.5 and 18.5 ) because of the fact Eloy when signed hadn’t played in a big league game, Like Hiura, with a prospect ranking similar, bout as close a comparable as can get. I’d love for the team to get another year or two, but for that to happen a Precident would have to be set.

 

Those extension situations are always easier said than done, because you need to have interest from both sides in doing it. Until it does (if it does), it is in the team's best interest to play the Super 2 game. If Hiura's camp is interested, I'm sure Stearns and company would take a hard look at doing it, as it makes solid financial sense from the team's perspective.

 

Also, I include "mid-market" with the caveat that likely the only thing making the Brewers a mid-market team is the fact that they are a playoff contender and have several highly marketable players that have increased national exposure and, therefore, the fanbase. If that changes, they'll be back to being one of the smallest markets pretty quick, as the market itself has not gotten demonstrably larger.

 

Your correct in that it takes two to tango. If I’m the crew I call him up for the cubs series to face the lefty’s, then send him down, getting the potentially lethal righty bat in the line-up. This staff can get by with 7 pen arms for 3 days. What’s the downside?

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Love seeing the mid to small-market used to accurately describe where we are as a franchise in relation to the other teams. Other than myself, don’t think I’ve ever seen anyone on this site say anything other than small market brewers, nice to see.

 

Anyhow I said the Eloy Jiménez type extension ( 6 yrs at 43 mil with 2 club options at 16.5 and 18.5 ) because of the fact Eloy when signed hadn’t played in a big league game, Like Hiura, with a prospect ranking similar, bout as close a comparable as can get. I’d love for the team to get another year or two, but for that to happen a Precident would have to be set.

 

Those extension situations are always easier said than done, because you need to have interest from both sides in doing it. Until it does (if it does), it is in the team's best interest to play the Super 2 game. If Hiura's camp is interested, I'm sure Stearns and company would take a hard look at doing it, as it makes solid financial sense from the team's perspective.

 

Also, I include "mid-market" with the caveat that likely the only thing making the Brewers a mid-market team is the fact that they are a playoff contender and have several highly marketable players that have increased national exposure and, therefore, the fanbase. If that changes, they'll be back to being one of the smallest markets pretty quick, as the market itself has not gotten demonstrably larger.

 

Your correct in that it takes two to tango. If I’m the crew I call him up for the cubs series to face the lefty’s, then send him down, getting the potentially lethal righty bat in the line-up. This staff can get by with 7 pen arms for 3 days. What’s the downside?

 

The downside (if you can call it that) is that he rakes against the Cubs. Then you're in a tough spot roster construction-wise, and you'd pretty much be admitting to the rest of baseball that you're pulling Super 2 shenanigans if you send him down. That would be a good problem to have, though.

 

Still, the roster as it's currently constructed leaves little room for Hiura. They are obviously going to stick with Shaw for however long it takes him to pull out of the slump he's in, and they signed Moose to be the everyday 2B - a role he's been completely fine in. I get the feeling Shaw is going to have to slump for a lot longer before they look at taking at-bats away from him.

[benji]

Who knows if super two will exist after the new CBA. I have a feeling a lot of that is going to change.

[JohnBriggs12]

After next week, the Brewers have 7 off days in the following 4 weeks. If there was ever a time when they could go with just 12 pitchers, and bring up Hiura, that would be it. Take a chance an bring him up a week earlier to face the lefties in Chicago too. Relegate Shaw to PH/DH role.

[Jopal78]

I was partially kidding about trading Hiura for Bumgarner.

 

Hiura might be a blue chip player that's plugged into the middle of the order for the better part of a decade, OR he could be wind up being nothing. Nobody knows for sure, and that's what makes following prospects fun. When the Brewers dealt Mat Laporta to Cleveland for CC Sabathia, Laporta was Baseball America's #23 prospect overall. Laporta quickly washed out of the major leagues, and it was the PTBNL Brantley who ended up being the impact player that went to Cleveland.

 

However if the Giants would indeed trade Bumgarner to the Brewers for Hiura, I think Milwaukee probably should pull the trigger. They haven't had a proven ace pitcher since Greinke was traded, they'll never have the money to sign one at a market rate, and they've been terrible at developing front line starting pitching for close to 3 decades.

 

Bumgarner, even if a rental, is a transformative talent and would make the Brewers rotation formidable instead of ho-hum. More importantly, for a team with playoff expectations is there a better acquisition than this generation's most dominant playoff pitcher? Not to mention in his career he has been a monster against the Cubs (9-2, 1.01 whip), Cardinals (1.18 whip), Braves (7-3 1.00 whip) Dodgers (1.06 whip) Nationals (0.98 whip) Padres (1.04) and Phillies (1.12), so you'd have to feel pretty good with him on the mound in a potential tie-break or wild card game.

 

So like I said, earlier if the Giants would do such a trade, then I'd be okay with Hiura arriving in Milwaukee with the Giants some time in 2020.

[OldHeidelberg]

I know MadBum is a pretty popular player in SF, but I would think they would be all over that deal. Best case you are getting maybe 3-4 WAR from him the rest of the year? Hiura looks like he could post several seasons like that.

[mattyo]

I was partially kidding about trading Hiura for Bumgarner.

 

Hiura might be a blue chip player that's plugged into the middle of the order for the better part of a decade, OR he could be wind up being nothing. Nobody knows for sure, and that's what makes following prospects fun. When the Brewers dealt Mat Laporta to Cleveland for CC Sabathia, Laporta was Baseball America's #23 prospect overall. Laporta quickly washed out of the major leagues, and it was the PTBNL Brantley who ended up being the impact player that went to Cleveland.

 

However if the Giants would indeed trade Bumgarner to the Brewers for Hiura, I think Milwaukee probably should pull the trigger. They haven't had a proven ace pitcher since Greinke was traded, they'll never have the money to sign one at a market rate, and they've been terrible at developing front line starting pitching for close to 3 decades.

 

Bumgarner, even if a rental, is a transformative talent and would make the Brewers rotation formidable instead of ho-hum. More importantly, for a team with playoff expectations is there a better acquisition than this generation's most dominant playoff pitcher? Not to mention in his career he has been a monster against the Cubs (9-2, 1.01 whip), Cardinals (1.18 whip), Braves (7-3 1.00 whip) Dodgers (1.06 whip) Nationals (0.98 whip) Padres (1.04) and Phillies (1.12), so you'd have to feel pretty good with him on the mound in a potential tie-break or wild card game.

 

So like I said, earlier if the Giants would do such a trade, then I'd be okay with Hiura arriving in Milwaukee with the Giants some time in 2020.

 

Dear god. If we traded Hiura straight up for half a season of the current version of MadBum I would consider renouncing my fandom. I wouldn't, but it would cross my mind.

[True Blue Brew Crew]

However if the Giants would indeed trade Bumgarner to the Brewers for Hiura, I think Milwaukee probably should pull the trigger.

 

I literally gasped when I read this.