When Will Keston Hiura Arrive In Milwaukee?

[rickh150]

Lol, Brinson isn't even close to the hitter Hiura is.

 

Nooooo way can you write lol.... Hiura has no MLB at bats. How can you compare until that happens. If you want to compare minor league stats, those are comparable and half way similar.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Lol, Brinson isn't even close to the hitter Hiura is.

 

Nooooo way can you write lol.... Hiura has no MLB at bats. How can you compare until that happens. If you want to compare minor league stats, those are comparable and half way similar.

 

Tools related to athleticism (speed, arm strength, raw power, fielding ability for their respective position), Brinson is hands-down superior to Hiura. Physical traits were the reason Brinson was a 1st round draft pick. The hit tool, which is an offensive ability that can offset and even supercede physical tools because it is what determines how good of a MLB hitter a guy can become, is where Hiura is world's better than Brinson will ever hope to have. Looking at minor league stats doesn't come close to properly comparing the two (particularly when most of Brinson's gaudy AAA numbers were generated playing in CO Springs). If Brinson gets himself on track at the MLB level (and I truly hope he does), his ceiling is probably Devon White in terms of an overall player - which would be great. However, Hiura's hit tool gives him a ceiling of a MVP-caliber offensive 2B - a righthanded hitting version of Robinson Cano without as much pop.

 

You know the old saying "You can't steal first"? Brinson sure knows it now...

[True Blue Brew Crew]

I could be wrong but the people who aren't expecting much from Hiura, even calling for him to be traded, just don't seem to be very familiar with him as a talent. Do they know why he's been tabbed an elite hitter? Do they know how the ball jumps off his bat? I keep hearing about all these touted prospects who struggle out of the gate. And of the ones who never amounted to anything. Well, some of them actually do hit from day one. The Brewers even have an example of one who to this day often mans LF most nights. l'll sing it from the rooftops again, I expect Hiura to be one of those instant impact bats. Sticking with my preseason call that he's the 2nd best bat in the organization behind only Yelich. I could be wrong.

[FVBrewerFan]

Both sides are correct. Hiura has a short, sweet swing and is a better hitter than Brinson. That said, success (especially early success) at the MLB level is never guaranteed.

 

But you have to hold on to guys you really believe in. Because there's also no guarantee that great pitcher you trade for won't need tj after his first start.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I could be wrong but the people who aren't expecting much from Hiura, even calling for him to be traded, just don't seem to be very familiar with him as a talent. Do they know why he's been tabbed an elite hitter? Do they know how the ball jumps off his bat? I keep hearing about all these touted prospects who struggle out of the gate. And of the ones who never amounted to anything. Well, some of them actually do hit from day one. The Brewers even have an example of one who to this day often mans LF most nights. l'll sing it from the rooftops again, I expect Hiura to be one of those instant impact bats. Sticking with my preseason call that he's the 2nd best bat in the organization behind only Yelich. I could be wrong.

 

I don't know about that. Having cautious optimism doesn't mean people aren't familiar with Hiura as a talent. Hiura is certainly doing everything a prospect of his caliber is expected to do at the AAA level, and his future appears extremely bright. But at the same time, it is so, so rare for a player to come up and immediately be a game-changing type hitter. Perhaps Hiura is one of those ultra rare talents. But yeah, this team has probably only had one or two of those types in its history.

 

For the record ... I hope you are right, because that would be pretty dang terrific.

[Oxy]

I could be wrong but the people who aren't expecting much from Hiura, even calling for him to be traded, just don't seem to be very familiar with him as a talent. Do they know why he's been tabbed an elite hitter? Do they know how the ball jumps off his bat? I keep hearing about all these touted prospects who struggle out of the gate. And of the ones who never amounted to anything. Well, some of them actually do hit from day one. The Brewers even have an example of one who to this day often mans LF most nights. l'll sing it from the rooftops again, I expect Hiura to be one of those instant impact bats. Sticking with my preseason call that he's the 2nd best bat in the organization behind only Yelich. I could be wrong.

 

I don't know about that. Having cautious optimism doesn't mean people aren't familiar with Hiura as a talent. Hiura is certainly doing everything a prospect of his caliber is expected to do at the AAA level, and his future appears extremely bright. But at the same time, it is so, so rare for a player to come up and immediately be a game-changing type hitter. Perhaps Hiura is one of those ultra rare talents. But yeah, this team has probably only had one or two of those types in its history.

 

For the record ... I hope you are right, because that would be pretty dang terrific.

 

At this point, if he ends up worse than Rickie Weeks, I'd be disappointed. He basically is Rickie Weeks circa 2005 right now (same caliber...slightly less power, Ks, and BBs, better contact). If his career clones Rickie's (but a bit healthier), I can't say I'd be happy, but I'd be foolish to not be satisfied.

[TigerUppercut]

Mat Gamel flamed out after he tore his knee up - twice - he never got a chance at extended MLB playing time to make that final adjustment before he got hurt. That's not a prospect busting out of MLB because he wasn't good enough. And Gamel was never considered half the hitter Braun was as a prospect. Gamel put up good minor league numbers after taking awhile to develop as a HS draftee picked in the 4th round. However, generational hitting talents don't ever last until the 4th round. Saying Gamel was the best offensive prospect through their system since Braun came up doesn't make them comparable - it just means the Brewers have been bad at drafting/developing offense. Hiura is compared to Braun as a hitter because both were largely considered having the best hit tool in their respective drafts - and Hiura has done nothing but reinforce that projection since.

 

I remember some of your earlier posts poo-pooing Hiura due to a below exceptional two month stretch in AA last season immediately following a thumb/wrist injury, so I know where your head's at.

 

Maybe you're too young to remember and jumped on the Brewer train after the team turned things around starting in 2005, but I'm almost certain Gamel ranked top 20 in the prospect rankings in BA and Prospectus which means he was more highly thought of by folks that actually scout baseball and are not message board, MILB box score following fans. And why does draft position matter when you rake? Also, Gamel's high rankings were in spite of his highly shaky glovework at 3rd.

 

I guess the moral of the story is that there's no sense in bringing facts into a good argument when you're dealing with Brewer fans that historically tree hug their prospects. I hope I'm proven wrong but I remember a couple of guys holding the fort on Logan Shafer back in the day, too. Hiura is likely not a transformation prospect in the mold of Trout, that much i know for sure. We're in a win now window. Make the moves if they're there. Offense is not the issue.

[homer]

People wanted to trade Hiura? They we're definitely in the minority.

[Oxy]

People wanted to trade Hours? They we're definitely in the minority.

 

Who has a higher trade value right now, Hiura or Travis Shaw?

[Oxy]

People wanted to trade Hours? They we're definitely in the minority.

 

The minority is not always wrong.

 

But more often than not it is.

[Brew crew 92]

Mat Gamel flamed out after he tore his knee up - twice - he never got a chance at extended MLB playing time to make that final adjustment before he got hurt. That's not a prospect busting out of MLB because he wasn't good enough. And Gamel was never considered half the hitter Braun was as a prospect. Gamel put up good minor league numbers after taking awhile to develop as a HS draftee picked in the 4th round. However, generational hitting talents don't ever last until the 4th round. Saying Gamel was the best offensive prospect through their system since Braun came up doesn't make them comparable - it just means the Brewers have been bad at drafting/developing offense. Hiura is compared to Braun as a hitter because both were largely considered having the best hit tool in their respective drafts - and Hiura has done nothing but reinforce that projection since.

 

I remember some of your earlier posts poo-pooing Hiura due to a below exceptional two month stretch in AA last season immediately following a thumb/wrist injury, so I know where your head's at.

 

Maybe you're too young to remember and jumped on the Brewer train after the team turned things around starting in 2005, but I'm almost certain Gamel ranked top 20 in the prospect rankings in BA and Prospectus which means he was more highly thought of by folks that actually scout baseball and are not message board, MILB box score following fans. And why does draft position matter when you rake? Also, Gamel's high rankings were in spite of his highly shaky glovework at 3rd.

 

I guess the moral of the story is that there's no sense in bringing facts into a good argument when you're dealing with Brewer fans that historically tree hug their prospects. I hope I'm proven wrong but I remember a couple of guys holding the fort on Logan Shafer back in the day, too. Hiura is likely not a transformation prospect in the mold of Trout, that much i know for sure. We're in a win now window. Make the moves if they're there. Offense is not the issue.

 

Disagree with virtually every point you just tried to make. Scouts rated Hiura THE BEST HITTER IN THE ENTIRE DRAFT. Why Logan shafer’s name is mentioned in comparison to Hiura silly. Stearns resisted trading Hiura this offseason and that was before his absolute devastation of AAA pitching. And our pitching is actually a strength right now and gonna get stronger with Anderson and Nelson back in the next couple weeks.

[Fear The Chorizo]

 

Maybe you're too young to remember and jumped on the Brewer train after the team turned things around starting in 2005, but I'm almost certain Gamel ranked top 20 in the prospect rankings in BA and Prospectus which means he was more highly thought of by folks that actually scout baseball and are not message board, MILB box score following fans. And why does draft position matter when you rake? Also, Gamel's high rankings were in spite of his highly shaky glovework at 3rd.

 

I guess the moral of the story is that there's no sense in bringing facts into a good argument when you're dealing with Brewer fans that historically tree hug their prospects. I hope I'm proven wrong but I remember a couple of guys holding the fort on Logan Shafer back in the day, too. Hiura is likely not a transformation prospect in the mold of Trout, that much i know for sure. We're in a win now window. Make the moves if they're there. Offense is not the issue.

 

Yeah, no - Gamel I believe was once a top 50-ranked prospect but never did reach the top 20 (at least in any preseason - BA had him #34 and BP #58 before 2009). He had a great 2007-2008 across A+ and AA, and then suffered some awful luck with the knee injuries at the absolute worst time in his MLB career. 1B was his for the taking after Prince left, and he only got into mid May 2012 before the knee.

 

And I'm probably older than you - plenty old enough to realize how silly the Logan Shafer love was and how even sillier it is to use him as an example to pump the brakes on Hiura's MLB potential. I'm further from being a "prospect hugger" than most here, too - except for the ones that I feel can become special MLB talents - IMO Keston is one that would be incredibly foolish to let go. If we truly are in a win now mode, the move is to call him up in a few weeks.

 

I guess you're right in the fact that Hiura probably won't surpass Trout as potentially the greatest baseball player ever...I'll give you that.

[TJseven7]

People wanted to trade Hours? They we're definitely in the minority.

 

Who has a higher trade value right now, Hiura or Travis Shaw?

 

Obvious answer but the way this team is constructed, Hiura is incredibly essential. They have Grandal, Moose and Thames on a 1 year deal. Those 3 have been a huge lifting force for our offense. You need Hiura to replace Moose next year. This team also desperately need RHH right now because that's leaning heavily on an old Braun and a questionable Aguilar.

 

This team doesn't have 1 shot at this. They have a shot as long as Yelich is controlled. Hiura could be a big part of that run.

 

Honestly, I'm at the point where I want Shaw to come down with a fake injury and take a month or 2 off to go spend time with his family. Keep yourself in shape and just clear your head.

 

Hiura has 9bb 8k and 7hr in his last 16 games. 19h and 13 are xbh.

[homer]

People wanted to trade Hours? They we're definitely in the minority.

 

Who has a higher trade value right now, Hiura or Travis Shaw?

 

Yelich.

[Oxy]

Honestly, I'm at the point where I want Shaw to come down with a fake injury and take a month or 2 off to go spend time with his family. Keep yourself in shape and just clear your head.

 

A month or 2 seems excessive. Send him to Cabo San Lucas this weekend with his family and a gigantic Travis Shaw highlight reel, and tell his wife to make him wake up every day and watch it for a half hour over breakfast. Go sit on the beach and do whatever he wants to do until bedtime. Then make him watch it again until he falls asleep. Repeat for a couple days. Go to San Antonio and OPS 1.500 for a week or two then come back to MKE.

[TJseven7]

Honestly, I'm at the point where I want Shaw to come down with a fake injury and take a month or 2 off to go spend time with his family. Keep yourself in shape and just clear your head.

 

A month or 2 seems excessive. Send him to Cabo San Lucas this weekend with his family and a gigantic Travis Shaw highlight reel, and tell his wife to make him wake up every day and watch it for a half hour over breakfast. Go sit on the beach and do whatever he wants to do until bedtime. Then make him watch it again until he falls asleep. Repeat for a couple days. Go to San Antonio and OPS 1.500 for a week or two then come back to MKE.

 

The reason behind the long leave is that I don't see a way to fit Hiura on the MLB roster right now without selling LOW on Shaw. I'd rather shut Braun down for the year and play Perez as the 4th OF and backup SS than do that. There are a lot of odd roster mgmt ideas that I'd rather do than sell low on Shaw.

 

Hiura has simply been silly for 16 games. His K rate hit the floor. His BBs are ahead of his Ks. His Hrs aren't far behind. He's a gap mashing machine right now.

 

The biggest problem with Shaw at this point aside from the fact that he can't hit, is that Moose can play 3rd and Erceg is getting close. This version of Shaw, Erceg can outproduce.

[Eye Black]

At this point, if he ends up worse than Rickie Weeks, I'd be disappointed. He basically is Rickie Weeks circa 2005 right now (same caliber...slightly less power, Ks, and BBs, better contact). If his career clones Rickie's (but a bit healthier), I can't say I'd be happy, but I'd be foolish to not be satisfied.

I saw someone recently comp Hiura’s career projections to Michael Young. I actually thought that was a pretty good baseline to use for an over/under type performance projection for Hiura’s career. Personally I think he’ll have a touch more power than Young with a bit lower OBP.

 

Some will probably scoff at that baseline comp, but remember that Young was a solid player (and a 7-time All Star).

[brewcrewdue80]

Just realize I'm not sitting over here expecting Hiura to rake like 1+ OPS. Just if he's producing more than a .650 OPS, it is better than what Shaw is giving us. Taking Shaw's Lefty bat out of the lineup and RH bat for Hiura, may mean more play for Thames over Aguilar which adds to the offense to this point. It's just Hiura is on a .472 6HR 8:7 bb/k rate in his last 11 games. While Shaw is at a .122 0HR 4:12 BB/K in last 11 games of hitting. Hiura's BA is higher alone than Shaw's OPS in that span at a measly .372. There's just not much justification to not make the move. You have a quality/experienced 3b in Moose to take over for Shaw and then Hiura fits in at 2b. Getting more production in the lineup solved.

[Oxy]

At this point, if he ends up worse than Rickie Weeks, I'd be disappointed. He basically is Rickie Weeks circa 2005 right now (same caliber...slightly less power, Ks, and BBs, better contact). If his career clones Rickie's (but a bit healthier), I can't say I'd be happy, but I'd be foolish to not be satisfied.

I saw someone recently comp Hiura’s career projections to Michael Young. I actually thought that was a pretty good baseline to use for an over/under type performance projection for Hiura’s career. Personally I think he’ll have a touch more power than Young with a bit lower OBP.

 

Some will probably scoff at that baseline comp, but remember that Young was a solid player (and a 7-time All Star).

 

Yeah, I'd scoff at that comp for an over/under, but I'm less optimistic about prospects. Young was awfully good. Weeks and Kolton Wong would be my O/Us.

[TJseven7]

I fully expect him to bring another 800 ops bat to this lineup.

 

Cain is usually close

Yelich well above

Grandal is above

Moose is above

Thames is above but Aguilar has been dragging that position down

Braun Gamel is close

Hiura would make 7

 

Leaving Arcia and the Pitcher who don't count.

 

Problem is that we are maxed on this roster right now. Thames Gamel are in platoons. Pina Perez are needed depth. Aguilar can't be the guy to go. You don't want to sell low on Shaw. 13 pitchers is the norm for this team. Its a depth mess which is why its time for a fake injury.

 

I just looked and it says Shaw has 2 options left. He is in his 5th year but I think he technically has less than 4 full years of service. hmmmmmmmmmmm

[wildcat2237]

I fully expect him to bring another 800 ops bat to this lineup.

 

Cain is usually close

Yelich well above

Grandal is above

Moose is above

Thames is above but Aguilar has been dragging that position down

Braun Gamel is close

Hiura would make 7

 

Leaving Arcia and the Pitcher who don't count.

 

Problem is that we are maxed on this roster right now. Thames Gamel are in platoons. Pina Perez are needed depth. Aguilar can't be the guy to go. You don't want to sell low on Shaw. 13 pitchers is the norm for this team. Its a depth mess which is why its time for a fake injury.

 

I just looked and it says Shaw has 2 options left. He is in his 5th year but I think he technically has less than 4 full years of service. hmmmmmmmmmmm

 

As others have said, if Shaw doesn't start hitting by June, Stearns will not have a choice but to send him to 2B. You just cant hit under .200 at 3B in the majors.

[TJseven7]

If he doesn't start hitting by June he should play 2B for San Antonio. You can't play anywhere in the majors hitting 200. People would consider taking Arcia out of the lineup if he was sub 200.

[willjski23]

Would it work if we did something similar when we acquired Jon Schoop last season? Have Keston play SS, 2B and rotate Moose/Shaw/Arcia

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I'm all for Hiura coming up at some point this year if his hot hitting at San Antonio continues, but I think it would be downright irresponsible to even think about bringing him up before the Super 2 cut-off in early June. I'd gladly trade another few weeks of Shaw trying to get right, or even more playing time for Perez, for an extra year of "in his prime" control for Keston several years from now. Yeah, it sucks for the players, but you have to use the system to the best advantage both for the short and long term success of the team.

 

But if we get to the beginning of June, and Shaw is still scuffling while Keston continues to tear the cover off the ball, I think we could see a move.

[Oxy]

I'm all for Hiura coming up at some point this year if his hot hitting at San Antonio continues, but I think it would be downright irresponsible to even think about bringing him up before the Super 2 cut-off in early June. I'd gladly trade another few weeks of Shaw trying to get right, or even more playing time for Perez, for an extra year of "in his prime" control for Keston several years from now. Yeah, it sucks for the players, but you have to use the system to the best advantage both for the short and long term success of the team.

 

But if we get to the beginning of June, and Shaw is still scuffling while Keston continues to tear the cover off the ball, I think we could see a move.

 

Why can't they plan to bring him up for a few weeks and then send him back down til sometime in the second half? The "Super two" cut-off only matters if the guy stays up permanently. And it doesn't add a year of control, it just cheapens one of his years of control. He's an extension candidate too, so it may not matter one way or the other.