Drew Rasmussen

[TJseven7]

Any slow down makes you at least wonder how good his stuff is.

It does not.

 

Because you know he isn't simply overpowering novice hitters at the lower level? Or getting swings on a slider due to poor plate discipline more than fooling batters? Jacob Barnes could put up the same numbers in A and A+.

[And That]

Any slow down makes you at least wonder how good his stuff is.

It does not.

 

Because you know he isn't simply overpowering novice hitters at the lower level? Or getting swings on a slider due to poor plate discipline more than fooling batters? Jacob Barnes could put up the same numbers in A and A+.

Because I trust my eyes in the three games I’ve seen him pitch, and because I trust the reports that I’ve seen lauding his stuff. Six innings in his first taste of AA is not going to make me rethink these things.

 

He’s not a finished product to be sure. He needs to work on FB command and use his CH more effectively, off the top of my head. And in order to remain a starter, he’s going to have to add a curve or splitter to get that third velocity band.

[TJseven7]

Maybe we are talking about different things here. I'm speaking in reference to him being able to be a part of our pen late season this year. I think you are talking top end projection. Top end projection doesn't change. I haven't changed that. I'm thinking slow down in reference to him waltzing right up the system into our bullpen this year due to the AA start.

 

Potential is potential. I'm pumping the breaks on when.

[OnTheBlack]

Rasmussen did get a mention among the others of note section in the FG write up of the system for whatever that is or isn't worth.

 

Putting together prospect lists is about taking into account the full range of potential outcomes & weighing them against each other based upon their individual likelihoods. I'd say Drew's performed within the top 1-5% of potential outcomes thus far which means there was a 95-99% chance he wouldn't.

 

Even though Drew is obviously talented, he had yet to throw a professional IP, didn't pitch at all in 2018 & only 64 total innings in 2016-17 on account of two different elbow procedures.

 

He came in at #23 on the preseason poll here & only made 7 of 27 ballots. Four of those ballots had him in the top seven, three had him between 15-24 & twenty had him outside the top 25. That is a pretty good microcosm of the wide range of potential outcomes entering the season.

 

I’m one that had him in my top 7, I think 7th if I remember correctly, for CC to single this guy out in ST, to say how impressive he was, and then the crew activating him for the T Rat game at miller park to make his debut really let’s me know how highly they think of him. He’s now my #1 and it’s not close.

 

Now that Keston's up or regardless?

[OnTheBlack]

Maybe we are talking about different things here. I'm speaking in reference to him being able to be a part of our pen late season this year. I think you are talking top end projection. Top end projection doesn't change. I haven't changed that. I'm thinking slow down in reference to him waltzing right up the system into our bullpen this year due to the AA start.

 

Potential is potential. I'm pumping the breaks on when.

 

 

 

Why is it that some people feel the need to "police" others beliefs on when a prospect is going to come up and how good he could be if or when they get up?

 

We had this discussion with Hiura coming into the year at AAA.

 

Nobody's looking at him and saying, "oh, he was good in a few innings in AA, he's the next Scherzer," there was pre-existing information about the guy out there.

 

This is basically akin to someone saying, "I'm just being a realist." Go ahead, pump the brakes if you feel they should be pumped. No reason others can't believe that he's capable of helping the Brewers pen out later in the season if he continues to pitch well.

[OnTheBlack]

4 ip only 1 k.

 

Kinda of a pitch to contact game, little over 40 pitches. Maybe he just wanted to be efficient with his pitches?

 

 

Or perhaps he's trying to flip a second breaking ball up there as he said he was going to or wanted to in that article.

 

Either way, he's chugging along. We all know about the talent, just keep stacking these outings on top of each other, don't freak out when he has that ugly outing, and stay healthy. If he does those things, he'll force the Brewers hand.

[OnTheBlack]

Any slow down makes you at least wonder how good his stuff is.

It does not.

 

Because you know he isn't simply overpowering novice hitters at the lower level? Or getting swings on a slider due to poor plate discipline more than fooling batters? Jacob Barnes could put up the same numbers in A and A+.

 

 

And Jacob Barnes has proven definitively he can get guys out at the big league level. Even this year he's given up all 10 of his ER's in 3 outings over 2 1/3 innings and hasn't given up a run his other 12 games while striking out nearly 12 per 9 innings.

 

So...maybe Barnes just chokes, maybe it's mental. Either way, his stuff is good enough to get hitters out. He just falls apart from time to time. But Barnes isn't Rassmusen. As was mentioned, this isn't just some guy who came out of nowhere. He was the ace of one of the best programs in all of college baseball, pitched in a couple college world series, had TJ, came back and pitched again in relief, then they saw some issues with that first TJ.

 

If the first TJ had been clean and gone well, he's likely a top 10 pick in the draft. So there was already proof his stuff was exceptional. Now we have proof that he's back and healthy and if there's any doubt about what the Brewers think about his stuff, look at how quickly he's moved up in a very short period of time.

[TJseven7]

Why is it that some people feel the need to "police" others beliefs.

 

Who is policing who? Before I go off explaining how 5 star recruits and success vs players who don't make the majors is a moot point... who is policing who.

 

Cuz I'm pretty sure I stated my opinion and had not 1 but now 2 people say I'm wrong and can't have my opinion because of factors that don't mean a thing.

[Brew crew 92]

Rasmussen did get a mention among the others of note section in the FG write up of the system for whatever that is or isn't worth.

 

Putting together prospect lists is about taking into account the full range of potential outcomes & weighing them against each other based upon their individual likelihoods. I'd say Drew's performed within the top 1-5% of potential outcomes thus far which means there was a 95-99% chance he wouldn't.

 

Even though Drew is obviously talented, he had yet to throw a professional IP, didn't pitch at all in 2018 & only 64 total innings in 2016-17 on account of two different elbow procedures.

 

He came in at #23 on the preseason poll here & only made 7 of 27 ballots. Four of those ballots had him in the top seven, three had him between 15-24 & twenty had him outside the top 25. That is a pretty good microcosm of the wide range of potential outcomes entering the season.

 

I’m one that had him in my top 7, I think 7th if I remember correctly, for CC to single this guy out in ST, to say how impressive he was, and then the crew activating him for the T Rat game at miller park to make his debut really let’s me know how highly they think of him. He’s now my #1 and it’s not close.

 

Now that Keston's up or regardless?

 

1.) Hiura

2.) Rasmussen

[Outlander]

Why is it that some people feel the need to "police" others beliefs.

 

Who is policing who? Before I go off explaining how 5 star recruits and success vs players who don't make the majors is a moot point... who is policing who.

 

Cuz I'm pretty sure I stated my opinion and had not 1 but now 2 people say I'm wrong and can't have my opinion because of factors that don't mean a thing.

I'm with you here. You have every right to say you don't think he will reach the majors this year or ever, I don't think there is a chance either this season. If others have a different opinion that is fine, just because I have a different opinion doesn't mean I am trying to police what you think.

[Brew crew 92]

67 Pitches!!!

 

4 ip 1 h 2 bb 6 ks

 

16 more pitches thrown than any other start this year. I don’t think I’ve ever been this excited about a brewer pitching prospect.

[And That]

Maybe we are talking about different things here. I'm speaking in reference to him being able to be a part of our pen late season this year. I think you are talking top end projection.

No - I'm talking about what he is right now. His stuff hasn't changed at all since being promoted from Carolina to Biloxi. With his current stuff and a modest uptick in command, he could help the Brewers later this year, if that's how they choose to use him. 6 innings (or now 10 innings) of data doesn't change that unless there's an underlying reason for a change in the data. As far as I can tell, any change in the data is just due to noise. That he struck out a few fewer guys his first two times out in the Southern League is a shrug.

 

Rasmussen would probably be a usable low leverage reliever at the MLB level right now. Refinements over the next few months will dictate whether or not the Brewers decide to commit to him as a higher leverage reliever in MLB later this year.

[LouisEly]

After missing all of last year and only pitching a total of 64 innings between 2017 and 2016 combined, I'd be shocked if the Brewers allow Rasmussen to pitch into September.

[DHonks]

67 Pitches!!!

 

4 ip 1 h 2 bb 6 ks

 

16 more pitches thrown than any other start this year. I don’t think I’ve ever been this excited about a brewer pitching prospect.

 

I remember when our future rotation was going to be led by guys like Nick Neugebauer, JM Gold, Mark Rogers, Mike Jones, Jose Mieses, Paul Stewart, etc. I like what I'm reading, but I've learned to temper my enthusiasm.

[HiAndTight]

After missing all of last year and only pitching a total of 64 innings between 2017 and 2016 combined, I'd be shocked if the Brewers allow Rasmussen to pitch into September.

 

 

 

Weren't we equally sure that they weren't going to let him go over 3 IP/50 pitches as well?

 

 

He's already in Double A. If he's healthy and throwing well, I think they use him in the post-season or in a post-season push.

[LouisEly]

After missing all of last year and only pitching a total of 64 innings between 2017 and 2016 combined, I'd be shocked if the Brewers allow Rasmussen to pitch into September.

 

 

 

Weren't we equally sure that they weren't going to let him go over 3 IP/50 pitches as well?

 

 

He's already in Double A. If he's healthy and throwing well, I think they use him in the post-season or in a post-season push.

I don't know who "we" is, but my opinion is based on the Brewers recent track record with pitchers who underwent TJ procedures. Adrian Houser - who the Brewers allowed to eclipse 80 pitches on three occasions last year - was shut down after September 1st, even though his rehab started in 2017 and pitched 28 innings in 2017. The major league bullpen was a little full last September, but they didn't send him to the AFL either. He only threw 92 innings total on the season last year.

 

Rasmussen's innings have been light - low pitch counts - so he may very well see more than 100 innings this year. But I don't foresee many more than that.

[HiAndTight]

I don't know who "we" is, but my opinion is based on the Brewers recent track record with pitchers who underwent TJ procedures. Adrian Houser - who the Brewers allowed to eclipse 80 pitches on three occasions last year - was shut down after September 1st, even though his rehab started in 2017 and pitched 28 innings in 2017. The major league bullpen was a little full last September, but they didn't send him to the AFL either. He only threw 92 innings total on the season last year.

 

Rasmussen's innings have been light - low pitch counts - so he may very well see more than 100 innings this year. But I don't foresee many more than that.

 

 

How many times can you send a prospect to the AZFL? I thought they could only go once, but I may be mistaken. Houser pitched in it the year before despite not coming back until halfway through the season.

 

Either way, I'm not sure Houser is the same caliber arm that Rasmussen is. Perhaps if the Brewers had only one high leverage reliever they could really count on and Houser was throwing the ball well, he may have been used out of the pen last year. Tough to say since we left pitchers like Anderson off the post-season roster and there really weren't many innings to go around. That makes the decision easier. This year, even assuming we pick up one or two relievers, we're still going to likely need some internal help.

[sveumrules]

Got a Rasmussen question in the Longenhangen chat today, but unfortunately didn't get an answer...

 

Ronnie

 

12:49 Is Drew Rasmussen the primary cause of the Global Helium Shortage?

 

Eric A Longenhagen

 

12:49 lol, that's very clever

all time chat question

[TJseven7]

Maybe we are talking about different things here. I'm speaking in reference to him being able to be a part of our pen late season this year. I think you are talking top end projection.

No - I'm talking about what he is right now. His stuff hasn't changed at all since being promoted from Carolina to Biloxi. With his current stuff and a modest uptick in command, he could help the Brewers later this year, if that's how they choose to use him. 6 innings (or now 10 innings) of data doesn't change that unless there's an underlying reason for a change in the data. As far as I can tell, any change in the data is just due to noise. That he struck out a few fewer guys his first two times out in the Southern League is a shrug.

 

Rasmussen would probably be a usable low leverage reliever at the MLB level right now. Refinements over the next few months will dictate whether or not the Brewers decide to commit to him as a higher leverage reliever in MLB later this year.

 

And I'm pausing on seeing him in MKE because every step has been less Ks and more lifted hits. GO/AO is now sub 1 and Ks are falling. Stuff is great, but Williams and Barnes have stuff. Every step up seems to make his stuff look less dominant.

[And That]

I'll just leave it at this. Rasmussen has fewer than 30 pro innings and is already pitching in AA. So he's already accomplished what takes most pitchers hundreds of innings to accomplish if they do it at all. Less than half of the innings it took Brendan McKay. He also has so few pro innings that it's next to impossible to try to find much meaning looking at his stat line. He's doing slightly worse against better hitters - I personally do not find this surprising or worrying. It's also 10 innings of work. Again, the stuff is still there. The results will follow.

[markedman5]

So is Kirby gonna be ready for a full season team any time soon? He pitched last year, so what happened?

 

 

So...just gotta assume that nobody on here knows what's going on with Kirby?

 

[Brew crew 92]

73 pitches

 

4 ip 3 h 0 r 3 bb 5 ks

 

6 more pitches than his last start.

 

4th start in AA only given up 1 run.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Maybe we are talking about different things here. I'm speaking in reference to him being able to be a part of our pen late season this year. I think you are talking top end projection.

No - I'm talking about what he is right now. His stuff hasn't changed at all since being promoted from Carolina to Biloxi. With his current stuff and a modest uptick in command, he could help the Brewers later this year, if that's how they choose to use him. 6 innings (or now 10 innings) of data doesn't change that unless there's an underlying reason for a change in the data. As far as I can tell, any change in the data is just due to noise. That he struck out a few fewer guys his first two times out in the Southern League is a shrug.

 

Rasmussen would probably be a usable low leverage reliever at the MLB level right now. Refinements over the next few months will dictate whether or not the Brewers decide to commit to him as a higher leverage reliever in MLB later this year.

 

And I'm pausing on seeing him in MKE because every step has been less Ks and more lifted hits. GO/AO is now sub 1 and Ks are falling. Stuff is great, but Williams and Barnes have stuff. Every step up seems to make his stuff look less dominant.

 

 

If he was pushed up through the prior levels any faster he would have needed to be called up in the middle of a start that finished the same day at the next level up...trying to glean any info worth a darn off these statlines over a miniscule sample size is a fool's errand.

 

Rasmussen basically advanced from spring training to AA in the minor league career equivalent of a sneeze in his 1st couple months of pro ball. They didn't base those advancements off his statlines, they were off scouts and staff saying "my God that arm doesn't belong at this level!" If he's healthy and in command of his pitches, he's a major league late inning reliever at worst right now assuming health...

[Mr Southpaw]

Let's try AAA folks!

[TJseven7]

Or he's catching up to where an early pick used on a college aged pitcher would be if he didn't miss extra time with the 2nd TJ. He's 24 in 2 months.

 

Nice seeing that they trust his pitch count over 50.