Arcia - Glove vs Bat

[pacopete4]

Oh you told them so. You got them! Congrats!

[MrTPlush]

Oh you told them so. You got them! Congrats!

 

uhh…...what?

[pacopete4]

Oh you told them so. You got them! Congrats!

 

uhh…...what?

 

It was to the one that you quoted. So tiresome that some need to rush on here when something fits their agenda and try to make snide comments. This place sucks as of late.

[MrTPlush]

Oh you told them so. You got them! Congrats!

 

uhh…...what?

 

It was to the one that you quoted. So tiresome that some need to rush on here when something fits their agenda and try to make snide comments. This place sucks as of late.

 

Don’t worry a double digit day old Braun thread got dug up too. That is the weeks theme on the forum it seems. Just wait till Nelson comes back and struggles or does well.

[markedman5]

I'm liking both right now.....

[vetter]

Batting stats as of 6/2/19

 

Orlando Arcia

BA: .264

OBP: .335

OPS: .766

RBI: 25

HR: 8

Age: 24

Salary (2019): $565,700

 

Manny Machado

BA: .255

OBP: .343

OPS: .761

RBI: 27

HR: 9

Age: 26

Salary: 10 years/$300M

[TJseven7]

Even more fun.

 

Last 30 games or 105AB

 

.295 avg

.378 obp

.457 slg

Yes that's .835 OPS over the last 30 games. I'd be thrilled with .270 .750.

[sveumrules]

Orlando has shown these brief flashes before...

 

June 2017 | 326/370/478

Sept 2018 | 329/360/443

 

...it's always been a matter of doing it more consistently. Fingers crossed this is him turning the corner.

 

League Average SS so far for 2019 is at 267/327/443 (102 wRC+) compared to 264/335/431 (98 wRC+) for Arcia. Interesting to note is league average wRC+ for a SS ranged between 87 & 92 every season from 2002 through 2017 before jumping to 97 last year & now 102 this year, so the offensive profile of the position might be evolving (or it might be a blip).

[clancyphile]

I am cautiously optimistic that Arcia is turning an offensive corner. Can he sustain this performance over a full season? We will have to see, he had a decent year in 2017, then cratered in 2018. In 2015, he did well in AA, but struggled in a very hitter-friendly park in AAA in 2016.

 

I hope Arcia can prove me wrong, but I'm still on a wait-and-see basis.

[MrTPlush]

Definitely not a blip. The SS position is waaay better than it was a decade or so ago. Way more elite bats there. To me it felt like suddenly the draft was all these big potential SS guys overnight.

[danzig6767]

Arcia already has drawn 20 walks, 5 more than last year in 157 less at bats.

 

In fact, he's drawn more walks than Moustakas, Cain, and Braun.

 

Granted, three were IBB by batting front of the pitcher, but Arcia is showing better plate discipline, something i highly doubted that he'd ever do.

[Oxy]

Orlando has shown these brief flashes before...

 

June 2017 | 326/370/478

Sept 2018 | 329/360/443

 

...it's always been a matter of doing it more consistently. Fingers crossed this is him turning the corner.

 

League Average SS so far for 2019 is at 267/327/443 (102 wRC+) compared to 264/335/431 (98 wRC+) for Arcia. Interesting to note is league average wRC+ for a SS ranged between 87 & 92 every season from 2002 through 2017 before jumping to 97 last year & now 102 this year, so the offensive profile of the position might be evolving (or it might be a blip).

 

I certainly don't expect that kind of production consistently, but I DO expect that he won't have those months where he puts up a .400 OPS or worse. Gotta stay away from those prolonged slumps.

[vetter]

Is it just me, or does it seem like whenever he's batting well he makes goofy defensive blunders?

 

Now lately the bat has cooled off but he's been turning some impressive double plays.

 

The guy has shown flashes of greatness on both sides. I just hope he can stay consistent.

[KeithStone53151]

Arcia already has drawn 20 walks, 5 more than last year in 157 less at bats.

 

In fact, he's drawn more walks than Moustakas, Cain, and Braun.

 

Granted, three were IBB by batting front of the pitcher, but Arcia is showing better plate discipline, something i highly doubted that he'd ever do.

 

Crazy that Arcia has been better at the plate than Moose

[adambr2]

I think the thing about Arcia that causes some frustration with him is that there were expectations, fair or not, brought upon by his prospect ranking that just don't really seem to be coming to fruition. He has good stretches and bad stretches, but for the most part, he doesn't vary much from who he is. He'll go cold at the plate at times, and other times he'll go the other way nicely and look good up there. Defensively, he'll boot some easy balls, and other times he'll dazzle on some difficult plays.

 

Arcia has over 1400 PA's at the MLB level and is in his 4th season at this level. He has accumulated just 0.7 fWAR in those 4 seasons, Baseball Reference being slightly more optimistic at 2.7 bWAR.

 

Both tell the same story -- the things he does well simply aren't enough to overcome the things he doesn't and make him any more than a slightly below average starter for his position. Arcia is a guy who will probably have a long MLB career, and more than likely the last 5 years or so will be as a utility infielder because of his defensive prowess. But as a starter, he's very replaceable and when you look at the state of SS around MLB these days -- Correa, Baez, Turner, Lindor, Story, and others, Arcia is just not a guy who is probably ever going to be in that upper echelon.

 

Now I will disclaim this by saying -- he is still young, and just because he's in his 4th season doesn't mean he won't still improve. Player development isn't linear, and he certainly wouldn't be the first young player who struggles in his early 20's and starts to flip a switch in his mid 20's. But the more likely scenario, I think, is that this is probably just who Arcia is. You can get by with him, but you won't miss much without him. He just doesn't have the track record with the bat, either at this level or in the minors, to make me all that confident that he's ever going to be a plus hitter.

[Lathund]

Arcia made his debut in 2016, and has ~3200 innings played at SS since then. Setting the cutoff at 2000 innings, there are 29 shortstops who match the criteria. By Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) Arcia is at +10, which places him 12th. By UZR however, Arcia is 24th with -8. The third major defensive metric, FRAA, is tougher to see how he compares to his peers over multiple years due to the way the data is sorted (Or not). Overall however, Arcia is at +13.7 over this timespan. This year (min. 100 PAs) he ranks 20th with -0.6. Errors and fielding percentage aren't good ways to judge defense, but I'll add it for context; 3rd most errors in that timespan with 50, for the 8th worst fielding percentage (.970). It's usually said, including by the creators and custodians of these metrics, that these metrics need ~3x the sample size of most offensive metrics to have the same kind of reliability. So what Arcia has is close to 3 full seasons worth, which should be treated similarly to about 1 seasons worth of OPS or wRC+.

 

Or in other words, while there's still some error bars surrounding the metrics, and one of them disagrees with the other two, it's still enough to tell us that he's no elite defender. He's an average to above average defensive shortstop, but at best a borderline top 10 defender at his position, likely a few or more spots below that. And even if his defense has been worth the 10-13 runs above average that DRS and FRAA suggests, the three WAR frameworks still put his batting at -32 (WARP) to -47 (fWAR) below average.

 

So while his bat may yet, as he's shown during certain stretches, get to the below average type of production with the bat that makes an elite defensive shortstop an above-average player overall, we probably should still set the bar higher than that as he may not be that defender. He has options remaining, so acquiring or promoting someone else doesn't mean giving up on him, he'll still be a plane ticket away. It's one spot on the roster where the Brewers have that kind of flexibility, and they should strongly consider it. Sadly I don't see much in the way of players out there who are either on teams that will be sellers, or good enough to be a clear upgrade. I don't think the Royals want to move Mondesi, and certainly not for any less than a King's ransom. Andrus might be a Ranger for life, and even if not that's a hefty financial committment. Perhaps Marcus Semien (Even if his true talent level is more like his career 99 wRC+ rather than this years 121) is the best option out there if Oakland fall further back? I don't know if Dubon is any better, but perhaps it's time to find out at some point before the trade deadline?

 

The downside of doing this though is that even if Arcia is not an elite defender, he's still a good one, while the 2B will be someone who isn't all that good (Whether it's Moustakas or Hiura), so a serious downgrade on defense could get ugly.

[sveumrules]

Alcides Escobar OPS+ thru age 24: 72

Alcides Escobar career OPS+: 73

 

Orlando Arcia OPS+ thru age 24: 74

Orlando Arcia career OPS+: ?????

[FVBrewerFan]

I see three options with Arcia. Extend his contract, trade him, or wait it out longer. Extension?!?!! Sure, makes sense at some level. It won't cost much since he's close to replacement level, but that is likely his floor. Could be his ceiling too, but again the Brewers wouldn't need to pay much to find out and possibly have a very affordable contract.

 

They are high on Dubon, no doubt. So they could trade Arcia and have Dubon take over. I don't see that happening until the off-season if it happens at all. Then again, if Arcia keeps slumping they could send him down like last year. IF they give Dubon the chance to play SS, who knows maybe he hits the ground running and never looks back.

 

Most likely, they don't do anything at all right now- which makes sense. But I think this off-season it would be wise to pull the trigger on either A or B.

[MrTPlush]

I don't see them demoting him. Overall this year he has been pretty passable.

 

With that being said dating back to the start of last year his sOPS+ has been 45 or less 5/9 months (including this month). Of the other four months, two of them were about 85 and two were 125.

 

You just cannot be that level of suck that often. If recent weeks are a sign of more 40 OPS+ times that just is not good (which way too early to know that for sure). He needs the consistency he had in 2017.

[JimH5]

Arcia is approaching his 1500th plate appearance as a Brewer. He'll be the 56th guy to do so and his career wRC+ (72) would rank 56th.

[sveumrules]

Arcia is approaching his 1500th plate appearance as a Brewer. He'll be the 56th guy to do so and his career wRC+ (72) would rank 56th.

 

Wow, even Gantner managed an 87 wRC+. 15% worse than Gumby? Ouch.

 

On the flipside Segura posted a 78 wRC+ in 1,927 PAs with the Brewers & has gone on to post a 113 wRC+ in 2,278 PAs since, so there is still a tiny sliver of a glimmer of hope (howsoever dim it may be).

[JimH5]

Since Arcia's debut August 2, 2016, there have been 109 players in MLB with 1500 PAs. Arcia's 72 wRC+ would rank 108th ahead of only Billy Hamilton's 66.

[MrTPlush]

Orlando Arcia has arguably been the worst starter since he debuted...and sadly that isn't shocking at all.

[JimH5]

Arcia is currently posting a wRC+ of 60 for the season.

 

Going back to 1969, among all hitter seasons, for those who had enough PA to qualify for the batting title, Arcia's 2019 would rank tied for 3rd worst in franchise history.

 

Tim Johnson had an astounding 40 wRC+ in 1973.

Marquis Grissom had a 59 in 2000.

Ted Simmons also had a 60, in 1984.

 

A cold streak over the last 3 weeks of the year could drop him below Grissom.

 

To put his 60 into perspective, some of the guys who finished their careers at 140 wRC+ (just as far from the mean as Arcia) are Mike Piazza, Larry Walker and David Ortiz.

[sveumrules]

There are 182 players with at least 1,500 plate appearances since 2016.

 

Arcia ranks 177th in WAR (0.1), the five guys worse than him are Kendrys Morales, Albert Pujols, Victor Martinez, Gerardo Parra & Chris Davis. At least Orlando is cheap!! In 176th place, with 0.3 WAR, I'm not making this up, is Alcides Escobar.

 

He's still just 25, I guess. That play he made yesterday was insane. With a barren SS market (unless we could pry Story from Colorado, which is prolly a pipe dream) I'm guessing he's back for 2020 & we'll just have to cross our fingers he finally figures it out.

 

It literally can't get much worse.