Arcia - Glove vs Bat

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Another "Wizard" of a SS put up a career OPS of .666 in his 19 year career, with a high-water mark of .775. While he was known for his defensive prowess, his offense also played up in big spots. Despite his defensive wizardry, he had years where he had 25, 24 and 22 errors. Sometimes excellent range will lead to more errors, simply because that player has more chances. The guy I'm speaking of is now a Hall of Famer and universally known as one of the best shortstops of all time.

 

Don't try to tell me that defensive excellence isn't valuable.

 

I guess that could be a good comp if Arcia suddenly becomes Billy Hamilton with the legs and gets on base...but I doubt that. I don't get what you are trying to prove, really. Ozzie Smith was already close to HOF status without his defense by WAR standards (50 WAR and a HOFer is usually about 60ish). Ozzie didn't have power, but he knew how to get on base and use his legs. Orlando Arcia is neither and that is why he is a negative offensive player. Ozzie Smith, as crazy as it is, was almost HOF worthy without his defense (50 OWAR).

 

You are trying to claim Ozzie as comparable because of OPS...which seems way off the mark. I can't even come up with another example of a 0 WAR player offensively starting year after year just due to defense. Hamilton would be somewhat the same. He may be the only other guy starting despite being a 0 WAR guy. And really all he did was get a 5mil salary for one year from a terrible team...probably bringing him in hoping to catch lightning in a bottle and have an exciting player to watch. Not for real value purposes.

 

I am not saying his defense isn't valuable, it is, especially considering the rest of the infield...but hardly some great player. Just a guy that is there...filling a hole, but darn close to being a black hole when his offense falls off a cliff. If he is hitting .675 or above I don't really care. If he starts getting above .700 that is a solid SS for us. Hopefully he can be more consistent.

 

When I read this, it appears that you think that Arcia is a finished product. You also seem to believe that 0 WAR is Orlando's future, while looking past the 2.5 WAR he posted as a 22-year-old in 2017. My argument is that, at 24 years old, there is room for growth. Ozzie didn't hit his stride as a consistent 5+ WAR player until his age 27 season. He also played in an era where station-to-station baseball and stolen bases were much, much more prevalent. I think it's probably short-sighted to believe that, at 24 years old, the current version of Arcia is al he ever will be.

[xisxisxis]

Arcia's atbats this year have been so much better than last year, I think his numbers will continue to trend up.

 

He doesn't swing at the slider away nearly as much, or at least hasn't to this point. That's really what ruined his season last year, completely unable to recognize/handle that pitch. Word got out, and it was sliders for days. He seems to be looking to go to the opposite field most of the time, so even if he does encounter a slider just off the plate...he's still able to get to it and poke it to RF. I'm a bit surprised more teams aren't trying to pitch him inside considering his approach lately. Hard to send an inside fastball to RF.

[pre]Year Pull Center Opp

2018 32.7 % 44.9 % 22.4 %

2019 47.6 % 33.3 % 19.0 %[/pre]

[MrTPlush]

When I read this, it appears that you think that Arcia is a finished product. You also seem to believe that 0 WAR is Orlando's future, while looking past the 2.5 WAR he posted as a 22-year-old in 2017. My argument is that, at 24 years old, there is room for growth. Ozzie didn't hit his stride as a consistent 5+ WAR player until his age 27 season. He also played in an era where station-to-station baseball and stolen bases were much, much more prevalent. I think it's probably short-sighted to believe that, at 24 years old, the current version of Arcia is al he ever will be.

 

I don't think he is either...but I don't know if that is just stating the obvious or if that is even a compliment. Not convinced we will see a massive improvement while he is still here...but I am sure he will get better not worse going forward. Which isn't saying much when you OPS .550 and try to hit below .200.

[tmwiese55]

Arcia's atbats this year have been so much better than last year, I think his numbers will continue to trend up.

 

He doesn't swing at the slider away nearly as much, or at least hasn't to this point. That's really what ruined his season last year, completely unable to recognize/handle that pitch. Word got out, and it was sliders for days. He seems to be looking to go to the opposite field most of the time, so even if he does encounter a slider just off the plate...he's still able to get to it and poke it to RF. I'm a bit surprised more teams aren't trying to pitch him inside considering his approach lately. Hard to send an inside fastball to RF.

[pre]Year Pull Center Opp

2018 32.7 % 44.9 % 22.4 %

2019 47.6 % 33.3 % 19.0 %[/pre]

 

Could you easily pull first half last year vs second half? Obviously he was a different player at the end. If it's a lot of work don't bother. Thanks

[jerichoholicninja]

This is Orlando's 4th MLB season. I really don't think his age matters much more at this point. Ya, I'll say there's a chance he makes some changes and maybe becomes a serviceable hitter to go with great defense but I personally doubt it. If he hasn't yet, what will it take for him to finally make some changes?

 

As for a 0 WAR player consistently playing because of his defense, Alcides Escobar is close. Outside of a year here and there he's consistently been about .5 WAR and still played almost every single day for years. [sarcasm]He does have an OPS over .900 in AAA right now, so maybe he's figured it out at age 32.[/sarcasm]

[xisxisxis]

When I read this, it appears that you think that Arcia is a finished product. You also seem to believe that 0 WAR is Orlando's future, while looking past the 2.5 WAR he posted as a 22-year-old in 2017. My argument is that, at 24 years old, there is room for growth. Ozzie didn't hit his stride as a consistent 5+ WAR player until his age 27 season. He also played in an era where station-to-station baseball and stolen bases were much, much more prevalent. I think it's probably short-sighted to believe that, at 24 years old, the current version of Arcia is al he ever will be.

That's your hypothesis. There's plenty of data that players don't get it even with much more time and there's plenty of data that players can get it and improve. As Jericho pointed out, he basically is the same crappy hitter he's been his entire life (his minor league numbers are pretty abysmal), so the likelihood that he puts it together is far outweighed by a consistency of crapitude. Sure there's an infinitesimally small chance he could improve... you've won me over on that... the over/under is pretty small and when FVBrewerfan starts that war, Arcia is perfect cannon fodder or a human shield...

[MrTPlush]

This is Orlando's 4th MLB season. I really don't think his age matters much more at this point. Ya, I'll say there's a chance he makes some changes and maybe becomes a serviceable hitter to go with great defense but I personally doubt it. If he hasn't yet, what will it take for him to finally make some changes?

 

As for a 0 WAR player consistently playing because of his defense, Alcides Escobar is close. Outside of a year here and there he's consistently been about .5 WAR and still played almost every single day for years. [sarcasm]He does have an OPS over .900 in AAA right now, so maybe he's figured it out at age 32.[/sarcasm]

 

How could I forget him...yah he is the modern day golden example. Escobar probably should have been toast at the MLB level before 30, but the Royals gave him that strange contract that made little sense...which was likely a thank you for being ALCS MVP and to keep someone from that 2015 team after they start purging off the other guys.

[xisxisxis]

Arcia's atbats this year have been so much better than last year, I think his numbers will continue to trend up.

 

He doesn't swing at the slider away nearly as much, or at least hasn't to this point. That's really what ruined his season last year, completely unable to recognize/handle that pitch. Word got out, and it was sliders for days. He seems to be looking to go to the opposite field most of the time, so even if he does encounter a slider just off the plate...he's still able to get to it and poke it to RF. I'm a bit surprised more teams aren't trying to pitch him inside considering his approach lately. Hard to send an inside fastball to RF.

[pre]Year Pull Center Opp

2018 32.7 % 44.9 % 22.4 %

2019 47.6 % 33.3 % 19.0 %[/pre]

 

Could you easily pull first half last year vs second half? Obviously he was a different player at the end. If it's a lot of work don't bother. Thanks

[pre]Month Pull Center Opp

9/2018 41.7% 43.3% 15.0%[/pre]

[JimH5]

Arcia makes plays on defense that are nothing short of spectacular. And he has occasional hot streaks at the plate. But the sum of his career to this point is that he's at the bottom of MLB in WAR by most measures. His unproductive bat was a factor in the Brewers being shutout so often last year.

 

With all the strikeouts in baseball, there are fewer and fewer chances that will make it to defenders, so Arcia's numbers won't compare to elite defenders of the past. But I think his glove is on par with the upper tier of those shortstops. I just don't think they can carry such an out maker over the long haul.

[sveumrules]

I posted a version of this in a game thread earlier this year, tl/dr version = Arcia is young & has seen wild variance in his performance & it's probably still too early to say definitively that the hitter he has been in aggregate for his career is the hitter he will be moving forward...

 

2016: Arcia "called up to soon" at 21. Hits 219/273/358 over 216 PA for a 66 OPS+.

 

2017: Full time starter at SS hits 277/324/407 for an 89 OPS+. League average for SS was 264/319/419. Best month was June at 326/370/478 in 100 PA.

 

2018: Terrible over first 212 PAs at 197/231/251. Demoted. Hits 290/320/386 in 154 PA upon his return then 333/353/606 in 34 postseason PAs.

 

So yes, in aggregate, he's been bad for his career & hasn't looked all that much better to start the season & has often looked completely lost, but there have also been stretches of varying lengths where he has performed adequately or even better & shown flashes of the tools he posseses that just need to be unlocked more consistently.

 

2019 forward: I'd say there's about a 55% percent chance he hits below league average for a SS, 30% chance he hits between league average for a SS & a 100-110 OPS+ which leaves about a 15% chance he hits for above a 110 OPS+...which would be pretty cool.

[chewy522]

What is interesting is a lot of elite defenders with those fast twitch muscles develop as good hitters over time. A couple that come to mind is andrelton simmons, arenado, Yadier molina, and Baez. That is a wide batch, but I remember all those elite defenders starting off slowly with the bat and progressing slowly with Arenado being the clear best of the bunch. A lot of the raw talent that helps someone defensively are needed for offense.

[DHonks]

What is disappointing is that Arcia showed good BB skills relative to k’s. Yet in MLB he is a very free swinger. I don’t get his open stance. Normally an open stance allowed a hitter to ensure their hip is squared up at impact. However, he’s open and still flies even more open during his swing.

[endaround]

Still awaiting evidence of Arcia's other-worldly defensive ability.

[JimH5]

Still awaiting evidence of Arcia's other-worldly defensive ability.

 

Watch him play and you'll see spectacular athleticism. He covers a lot of ground and has a strong arm.

 

Is it enough to make up for his weak bat? Often, no. But he does make contributions on defense.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Still awaiting evidence of Arcia's other-worldly defensive ability.

 

Yeah, if you are watching Arcia play and not seeing an extreme top-end defender, I'm not sure what you are looking at. He regularly makes difficult plays look routine. He's the total package of what you'd look for in a defender at SS. Soft hands, gun for an arm and terrific instincts. I always thought Jean Segura was a solid defensive SS, and Arcia puts him to shame. Once they inserted Arcia as the regular SS as a 21 year old over Villar in 2016, the difference was night and day.

[MrTPlush]

Orlando Arcia has really good defense, I would say elite. He is isn't out of this world like an Andrelton Simmons though...who literally can be a solid contributor with his defense and little to no offense.

[OnaBadger58]

Orlando Arcia has really good defense, I would say elite. He is isn't out of this world like an Andrelton Simmons though...who literally can be a solid contributor with his defense and little to no offense.

So he isn't one of the best SS to ever play the game? No one in the league is close to being as good as Simmons defensively.

[True Blue Brew Crew]

Still awaiting evidence of Arcia's other-worldly defensive ability.

 

Proof that if there isn't a concrete statistic for an aspect of a player's game, some just won't fully recognize the total value of an individual player to team wins. Sure, we all can tell when a batter puts up gaudy numbers or a pitcher has a sparkling ERA. It's harder to tell when a player at a team's most important defensive position gets to balls routinely that others wouldn't even be in position to dive for. A good amount of what makes Arcia so special happens in the split second when the batter is making contact with ball. By the time the camera switches to Arcia the difference has already been made. To the viewer it looks like Arcia is just fielding a ball within his vicinity.

 

I'll give everyone one example that even TV catches. How often do you see Arcia make a bad throw?

 

Arcia flat out makes the Brewers pitchers perform better.

[JimH5]

Arcia is a great defender, but in the era of launch angle and strikeouts, his infield skills are less valuable than if he played in an earlier era.

 

Plus, great shortstop plays mostly create outs from what are otherwise singles, not doubles or triples, and surely not homers.

 

So, Arcia's skills, while great, don't provide the value to make up for his often empty bat.

 

Him being a great defender allows them to play Moustakas at 2B, but his empty bat also requires that they do.

[JosephC]

Under normal circumstances I would say that Arcia should be moved to #9 in the lineup because his poor OBP of .286 plays better than what the pitchers would do in a position that is only two spots ahead of Yelich in the batting order. But since Brewer pitchers have OBP'ed .429 so far this year, maybe Arcia should just stick at that 8th spot in the lineup.

[tmwiese55]

Arcia is a great defender, but in the era of launch angle and strikeouts, his infield skills are less valuable than if he played in an earlier era.

 

Plus, great shortstop plays mostly create outs from what are otherwise singles, not doubles or triples, and surely not homers.

 

So, Arcia's skills, while great, don't provide the value to make up for his often empty bat.

 

Him being a great defender allows them to play Moustakas at 2B, but his empty bat also requires that they do.

 

That makes sense. Thoughts on the shifting putting him in more important spots being a balance to those points? I'd guess it's not enough to make up for it but it's part of the equation.

[MrTPlush]

Orlando Arcia has really good defense, I would say elite. He is isn't out of this world like an Andrelton Simmons though...who literally can be a solid contributor with his defense and little to no offense.

So he isn't one of the best SS to ever play the game? No one in the league is close to being as good as Simmons defensively.

 

Considering the fact many here say, "Anything past his defense is a bonus", I would say many must think Arcia is on the same level as Simmons...who could literally survive on his defense. That or they really don't understand the defense needed to suck with the bat. Arcia is really good, but a pretty marginal player without real offense.

[MrTPlush]

Arcia is a great defender, but in the era of launch angle and strikeouts, his infield skills are less valuable than if he played in an earlier era.

 

Plus, great shortstop plays mostly create outs from what are otherwise singles, not doubles or triples, and surely not homers.

 

So, Arcia's skills, while great, don't provide the value to make up for his often empty bat.

 

Him being a great defender allows them to play Moustakas at 2B, but his empty bat also requires that they do.

 

That makes sense. Thoughts on the shifting putting him in more important spots being a balance to those points? I'd guess it's not enough to make up for it but it's part of the equation.

 

When does Arcia make amazing plays when they do those extreme shifts? I can't recall very many. He makes some great range plays in the normal SS position and the more typical shift up the middle...but when they throw him halfway into RF I think Prince Fielder could pull off that shift. It rarely takes any moving.

 

Don't get me wrong he is a big help in the current defense...just not convinced it is exponentially more just because we shift more.

[xisxisxis]

Still awaiting evidence of Arcia's other-worldly defensive ability.

crickets....

[sveumrules]

There are 26 SS with at least 2,000 innings from 2016-2018.

 

Among those 26 Arcia ranks 9th in DRS (+9) & 19th in UZR (-5.3), so the metrics are mixed.

 

From the eye test I tend to side more with DRS than UZR in this case, but even then he is a loooong way from someone like Andrelton (+71) or even the next tier of guys like Crawford (+35), Lindor (+36) or even someone like Nick Ahmed (+37).