Arcia - Glove vs Bat

[RobDeer 45]

I'm curious how people feel about Orlando Arcia in general. Obviously his bat could be much better, but his glove is so great. Where do you fall on the spectrum of your feelings for Arcia.

 

Don't care how he bats, as long as his defense is top notch.

 

He needs to get on base more or he's a liability.

 

Somewhere in between.

 

The way this team is constructed, with a 3rd baseman playing second, and a great offense, I don't care where Arcia's batting avg/OBP is. I think we need his great glove in the field most games, and whatever we get from him on offense, is added benefit.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I agree with you completely. Especially when you take a 3B and play him at 2B, you need a top notch defender at SS. I would certainly love to see Arcia improve offensively, and he has teased us with the ability to do so. Perhaps that's why he's so polarizing? The ability to be an above average offensive performer is there. If he had an Alcides Escobar level of offensive skill, I'm sure most would be just fine with him. It's that untapped potential that seems to rub people wrong. We forget that the guy is only 24.

[tdcarney22]

I used to think he needed to find a way to have an average of .250 or above to remain in MLB, i've softened on that because of the way we utilize him and where he goes in our shifts defensively. Our defense would struggle mightily w/o his glove....if he could find a way to have an OBP of .250 i think we need to find a way to be okay with that!

 

He's rocking a .283 OBP right now and i think it's unrealistic to expect much more, maybe he could get it to climb to .300 and that would be fantastic! I'd really like to see him bumped to the 7-spot in the lineup just to see what he can do with seeing a few more hittable pitches per night, but also understand then you bump a better hitter to the 8-hole making them less effective. He suits his purpose by filling our 8-hole and not complaining about it.

[MrTPlush]

I would say he is a nice starter when he is sporting an OPS of .700+. Once he starts getting under that he isn't really all that special. If his OPS is at least .700 you are probably talking a 2.5 WAR or so...not bad, especially when the other positions pick up the slack on offense. Now when he is hitting .650 or worse he is easily replaceable...that just is not a very good ballplayer. I do not care how good your defense is. The minors are littered with guys who hit like a pitcher, but have GG defense.

 

One big thing, SO FAR, is he has not had many errors...one to be exact. In years past he has been really terrible in that department. Something I think people gloss over way too much when talking about him. When you are sporting 25+ error pace over a full season that is definitely excessive and taking away from your defense.

 

What he has done so far isn't great, but with so much offense everywhere else we can probably just accept it for what it is. At least for the time being. One could make the argument that we have the worst infield defense in baseball not including him...after sticking Moose at 2B they might just have to roll with Arcia no matter the offense. Kinda dug ourselves a grave if he starts hitting like his 2018-self.

[Warning Track Power]

LOVE LOVE LOVE Arcia's defense. I cannot overemphasize this. My issue with him is his lack of recognition where he is hitting in the lineup. You're hitting 8th, in front of the pitcher, and the free swinging in that position is completely unnecessary. His chase rate at balls out of the zone needs to be improved. If his OBP could just climb over .300, even if he is only hitting .230, he's a regular for a decade at SS.

[tmwiese55]

Just ran through his offensive stats and was surprised they weren't a bit better. I know the first several games were awful but have felt like he's been ok since, or at least the type of mediocrity that's good enough considering his D.

 

Positive things I quickly noticed is his K rate is down and his walk rate is almost double last year. Small sample of course, but still good signs. Already as many HRs as last year.

 

Another odd thing with him and I heard Stearns say it last night is that he seems to do better in big moments as seen by the end of year/playoffs last year and how it seems a disproportionate amount of hits come at key winning situations. Which leads to the possibility or theory that it could be a lack of focus holding him back a bit, find a way to be that dialed in all the time and maybe you can be an adequate hitter.

 

ETA: agree with Jericho just said next. His stance/swing/approach is just not good and I can't believe it hasn't been changed.

[jerichoholicninja]

His whole offensive approach and hitting mechanics are atrocious and haven't changed a lick since he came up 4 years ago. That's what bugs me about him. Either coaches see nothing wrong with what he's doing (which I really hope isn't the case) or he's ignoring the coaches (which also is concerning if the organization is letting him get away with it).

 

Unfortunately, we're just going to have to deal with his offensive ineptitude because that glove isn't coming out of the lineup. The rest of the infield defense is average at best and there's no one in the organization they could put at SS who would come anywhere close to matching his defense and they probably wouldn't be much if an upgrade offensively anyway.

[wallus]

His offensive production should improve with the protection he is getting in the lineup.

[MrTPlush]

His offensive production should improve with the protection he is getting in the lineup.

 

With Babe WoodRuth on the mound:

 

.429 AVG

.563 OBP

.625 SLG

1.188 OPS

[FVBrewerFan]

His performance in Sept/Oct shouldn't be ignored. Maybe it was a fluke, but he really hit well in September during the stretch run. In game 163 he really came through, and continued that through the playoffs. That's big to me. I would love him to hit north of .750. Not sure if that will happen, but I would be more than happy if he sat at .725 in the 8th spot. With the defense he brings, and a rah- rah guy in the dugout and clubhouse, he brings a lot to the table. (You can't have 25 guys with his act, or it would get old real fast. But I do think it helps a team to have a couple guys like that.)

 

Finally, another reminder he is still young. Hardy and Segura really struggled for a while and eventually figured it out. Arcia has so much natural talent he really does have a much higher ceiling as a hitter. IMHO, i don't think he gets to the ceiling, but that's ok.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Another "Wizard" of a SS put up a career OPS of .666 in his 19 year career, with a high-water mark of .775. While he was known for his defensive prowess, his offense also played up in big spots. Despite his defensive wizardry, he had years where he had 25, 24 and 22 errors. Sometimes excellent range will lead to more errors, simply because that player has more chances. The guy I'm speaking of is now a Hall of Famer and universally known as one of the best shortstops of all time.

 

Don't try to tell me that defensive excellence isn't valuable.

[FVBrewerFan]

Another "Wizard" of a SS put up a career OPS of .666 in his 19 year career, with a high-water mark of .775. While he was known for his defensive prowess, his offense also played up in big spots. Despite his defensive wizardry, he had years where he had 25, 24 and 22 errors. Sometimes excellent range will lead to more errors, simply because that player has more chances. The guy I'm speaking of is now a Hall of Famer and universally known as one of the best shortstops of all time.

 

Don't try to tell me that defensive excellence isn't valuable.

 

Does this HOF start with a Y? Yuni?

[Fear The Chorizo]

Arcia as a bad hitter is still valuable to this roster at his current pricetag - I'm hopeful his offense develops a bit more to the point of him being a reliable 0.725 OPS hitter, IMO that would justify keeping him around the next three years as his salary escalates through arbitration, perhaps even warranting a modest extension that sets him up for life and buys out a couple FA years. However, if Arcia's offense stagnates or even regresses to the point where his 2017 production is not longer likely from him, it wouldn't surprise me to see DS include him in a trade to fill another area of need 1-2 offseasons from now - particularly if there are other SS options internally that are ready to play everyday in Milwaukee. I'm interested in seeing what Dubon can do with an extended run at SS in AAA.

 

What really makes Arcia's glove valuable to the Brewers is how he's deployed as the primary infield defender in almost all shifting alignments. The combo of his glove and the Brewers' shifting philosophy helps to mask what would be obvious range/position issues with having two 3rd basemen and a lumbering 1B rounding out the rest of the infield virtually everyday. His glove actually helps improve the Brewers' offense at other positions because of that (in theory, if Shaw and Aguilar ever decide to start hitting).

[Samurai Bucky]

[sarcasm]Maybe he should learn how to bunt...[/sarcasm]

 

You know:

 

Chuckie hacks on 2-0

 

Orlando doesn't bunt

 

[topper09er]

Another "Wizard" of a SS put up a career OPS of .666 in his 19 year career, with a high-water mark of .775. While he was known for his defensive prowess, his offense also played up in big spots. Despite his defensive wizardry, he had years where he had 25, 24 and 22 errors. Sometimes excellent range will lead to more errors, simply because that player has more chances. The guy I'm speaking of is now a Hall of Famer and universally known as one of the best shortstops of all time.

 

Don't try to tell me that defensive excellence isn't valuable.

 

Arcia has a long way to go to match Ozzie. Just because you are the best defensive SS in the league at any given time does not automatically mean you are in the same conversion with Ozzie Smith. Given today's shifting, increased K rate and emphasis on launch angle I think the defensive value of a SS is lower than Ozzie's day. In his 17 seasons before age 40, his worst dWAR currently matches Arcia's career high, 1.3.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

If he can OPS .700 on the year that should be enough. He's not a great hitter, but he does have a lot more power than most tiny glove-first SSs that play. Too much is made of his offense. He has to at least make pitchers work, but the strength of this lineup is never going to go through him.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Another "Wizard" of a SS put up a career OPS of .666 in his 19 year career, with a high-water mark of .775. While he was known for his defensive prowess, his offense also played up in big spots. Despite his defensive wizardry, he had years where he had 25, 24 and 22 errors. Sometimes excellent range will lead to more errors, simply because that player has more chances. The guy I'm speaking of is now a Hall of Famer and universally known as one of the best shortstops of all time.

 

Don't try to tell me that defensive excellence isn't valuable.

 

Arcia has a long way to go to match Ozzie. Just because you are the best defensive SS in the league at any given time does not automatically mean you are in the same conversion with Ozzie Smith. Given today's shifting, increased K rate and emphasis on launch angle I think the defensive value of a SS is lower than Ozzie's day. In his 17 seasons before age 40, his worst dWAR currently matches Arcia's career high, 1.3.

 

Point taken. It's also important to note, though, that Ozzie made his debut with the Padres as a 23-year-old. Arcia is 24. There's plenty of room for growth.

[homer]

He just has to be below average on offense to have a positive impact.

[chewy522]

I'm not too involved in the defensive metrics, but I would think the opposite. Since Arcia is usually shifted to the most likely spot the ball is hit, I would think a defensive wizard would be more important in today's game. But like you said, people made more contact in the past so maybe it all evens out.

 

One other point I'd like to make is someone has to hit 8th. While we would all love mashers up and down the lineup, we have an obvious hitter to fall on the sword of the #8 spot. Whatever peoples' thoughts are of Arcia, he fits this current team really well. We lack fielding and have great hitting. He helps our weakness and pulls from our strength.

[tmwiese55]

And yes in the 8 spot the theory is you won't get as many pitches to hit. But you also should rack up a ton of free walks to have a good OBP and OPS. More importantly, it helps your team to just take the walk and clear the pitcher. I guess I'm just saying the negative that comes from 8 hole should be balanced by the easy walks you should be able to get.

[MrTPlush]

Another "Wizard" of a SS put up a career OPS of .666 in his 19 year career, with a high-water mark of .775. While he was known for his defensive prowess, his offense also played up in big spots. Despite his defensive wizardry, he had years where he had 25, 24 and 22 errors. Sometimes excellent range will lead to more errors, simply because that player has more chances. The guy I'm speaking of is now a Hall of Famer and universally known as one of the best shortstops of all time.

 

Don't try to tell me that defensive excellence isn't valuable.

 

I guess that could be a good comp if Arcia suddenly becomes Billy Hamilton with the legs and gets on base...but I doubt that. I don't get what you are trying to prove, really. Ozzie Smith was already close to HOF status without his defense by WAR standards (50 WAR and a HOFer is usually about 60ish). Ozzie didn't have power, but he knew how to get on base and use his legs. Orlando Arcia is neither and that is why he is a negative offensive player. Ozzie Smith, as crazy as it is, was almost HOF worthy without his defense (50 OWAR).

 

You are trying to claim Ozzie as comparable because of OPS...which seems way off the mark. I can't even come up with another example of a 0 WAR player offensively starting year after year just due to defense. Hamilton would be somewhat the same. He may be the only other guy starting despite being a 0 WAR guy. And really all he did was get a 5mil salary for one year from a terrible team...probably bringing him in hoping to catch lightning in a bottle and have an exciting player to watch. Not for real value purposes.

 

I am not saying his defense isn't valuable, it is, especially considering the rest of the infield...but hardly some great player. Just a guy that is there...filling a hole, but darn close to being a black hole when his offense falls off a cliff. If he is hitting .675 or above I don't really care. If he starts getting above .700 that is a solid SS for us. Hopefully he can be more consistent.

[KeithStone53151]

Arcia's atbats this year have been so much better than last year, I think his numbers will continue to trend up.

 

He doesn't swing at the slider away nearly as much, or at least hasn't to this point. That's really what ruined his season last year, completely unable to recognize/handle that pitch. Word got out, and it was sliders for days. He seems to be looking to go to the opposite field most of the time, so even if he does encounter a slider just off the plate...he's still able to get to it and poke it to RF. I'm a bit surprised more teams aren't trying to pitch him inside considering his approach lately. Hard to send an inside fastball to RF.

[topper09er]

that Ozzie made his debut with the Padres as a 23-year-old. Arcia is 24. There's plenty of room for growth.

 

For sure but I don't think that applies to defense as much.

[umphrey]

He's fine for our current roster. In the upcoming years I think we should stay open to any bargains at SS and potentially replace him 2020 or 2021 depending on his stock and FA/MiLB options.

[topper09er]

Ozzie Smith, as crazy as it is, was almost HOF worthy without his defense (50 OWAR).

 

 

Remember bWAR includes the positional adjustment in oWAR and dWAR, which I really hate. Without it, he was 117 runs below average hitting, 79 above average base running and +23 for avoiding DPs. That is -15 runs from average for his career on offense, and his career replacement level runs were 348 below average, so he was 333 runs above replacement. His career runs to WAR constant is 734/76.9 = 9.54, so just on offense, independent of his position, Ozzie put up 35 WAR.