Ozzie Albies Robbed by the Braves

[MrTPlush]

I'm trying to think of an elite non-pitching prospect who blew out a knee/elbow whatever and never did anything afterward. I'm coming up blank. Mat Gamel I guess but he wasn't elite by any means. Anyone else?

 

I recall Profar getting injured. But he wasn't anything before doing so (proven wise) and not really any assurance he was actually going to hit.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I'm trying to think of an elite non-pitching prospect who blew out a knee/elbow whatever and never did anything afterward. I'm coming up blank. Mat Gamel I guess but he wasn't elite by any means. Anyone else?

 

Perhaps it wasn't 100% injury related, but Ben Grieve comes to mind. He looked like a possible transcendent star early on, but his power almost completely disappeared after he turned 24. Rocco Baldelli is another that comes to mind who was an elite prospect that showed immense promise early in his major league career, but ended up being derailed by injury.

[Fear The Chorizo]

I'm trying to think of an elite non-pitching prospect who blew out a knee/elbow whatever and never did anything afterward. I'm coming up blank. Mat Gamel I guess but he wasn't elite by any means. Anyone else?

 

Doesn't have to be injury that leads to a player bursting onto the scene with seemingly superstar potential to wind up being 'meh' or worse well before they ever reach free agency. Some can still have very long MLB careers but never realize their lofty potential. It's tough to come up with a list because the # of sure things that appear ready to earn a superstar contract is endless, but a vast majority of those players aren't consistent enough due to either injury or just regression to reach that level. here are just a couple examples off the top of my head.

 

Rickie Weeks (he still did pretty well financially due in large part to the initial extension he signed with the Brewers, but I'd argue those wrist and ankle injuries severely hampered what his career could have been)

Delmon Young (1st overall pick in the same draft as Weeks, out of baseball after 9 years with a total earnings of ~$25M)

Grady Sizemore (nice 10 year career hampered in his prime due to injuries and never truly cashed in - $35M in total earnings)

 

I actually view Sizemore's initial extension with the Indians (6 yrs, $24M after 1 full MLB season, buying out 2 FA years) as a pretty good comp to Albies. Sizemore's deal initially looked like a steal and was roundly criticized for being too team friendly. Then he dealt with a ton of injuries that basically ended his career as a fulltime player and the contract wound up giving him the financial security he otherwise wouldn't have gotten.

 

Between Acuna's and Albies' extensions, I'd guess that one of these deals will go down as a sweet deal for the team, and one will go down as a sweet deal for the player.

[JosephC]

If MLBTradeRumors agency database is correct, Ozzie Albies agent is Dave Meter. The same individual that is Craig Kimbrel's agent. It's interesting how Meter would hold out Kimbrel and make such demands for a closer, and on the other hand be so willing to sign a deal like this for Albies. I don't know if the "he's going to lose the player" theory has any weight...considering the criticism he's received so far for this deal...that surely won't help his reputation among players. If the Kimbrel situation really sours (doesn't sign this year and the market only determines he's worth something like 3 years, 42 million next off-season), Meter will look really bad.

 

I thought the Acuna deal would have been pretty reasonable for both sides if not for those last two option years. But when going through arbitration, offense is king. Acuna has been a .930 OPS player so far. Albies had a .305 OBP in his one full season and has been a .774 OPS player so far. Overall he's been really good for a second baseman (offense and defense), and at only 22 there is a strong chance that he will become much, much better, but I wouldn't project him into the probable superstar category that I would with Acuna.

 

I would project Albies to earn about 33 million in those three arbitration years. So his earnings the next five years would be something like 0.6 + 0.6 + 8 + 11 + 14 = 34.2 million. Giving the team a discount in exchange for security, let's say 70% of his projected earnings, put a reasonable buy figure for those five years at 0.6 + 0.6 + 5.6 + 7.7 + 9.8 = 24.3 million. IMO that would be a fair figure for 2019-2023 seasons. With this deal, Albies will only earn 17 million over this timeframe, less than half of what I would guess his future earning would be, and only 70% of what I figure a fair discounted price would be. Then it gets into the lost free agent years which really makes this a ridiculous deal.

 

If I were Albies agent I would have had no problem selling the Braves the first year of free agency at what could be a pretty good discount (say 12 million) just to get the client the financial security. But there is no way I would have sold off more than one year of free agency. Arbitration years and pre-arby years at discount = 24.3 million + 12 million free agent year puts it at 6 years, 36.3 million and that's as low as I would have gone. This could turn into a 9 year, 45 million deal which is obviously horrible if Albies turns into a 15+ million AAV player, because as I see it, his agent sold off those 15+ million seasons for a roughly 3 million AAV.

[Jopal78]

I dislike the criticism of these extensions as somehow ripping off the players:

 

First of all, they have to want to sign an extension in the first place instead of going year to year. Think Ryan Braun vs. Prince Fielder.

 

Two, all of these players have agents who have a fiduciary duty to the player to work in the player's best interest. You wouldn't be an agent for very long in professional sports if you had the reputation of looking out for yourself as opposed to being a zealous advocate for their client.

 

Third, after receiving offers for an extension, the player has the ultimate negotiating tool, the ability to say no.

 

Finally, for almost all of these extensions I assume it gives the player incredible peace of mind knowing they and their family are financially secure at a young age, and in almost all cases the player will still have another bite at the apple when they do eventually hit free agency.

[MrTPlush]

I dislike the criticism of these extensions as somehow ripping off the players:

 

First of all, they have to want to sign an extension in the first place instead of going year to year. Think Ryan Braun vs. Prince Fielder.

 

Two, all of these players have agents who have a fiduciary duty to the player to work in the player's best interest. You wouldn't be an agent for very long in professional sports if you had the reputation of looking out for yourself as opposed to being a zealous advocate for their client.

 

Third, after receiving offers for an extension, the player has the ultimate negotiating tool, the ability to say no.

 

Finally, for almost all of these extensions I assume it gives the player incredible peace of mind knowing they and their family are financially secure at a young age, and in almost all cases the player will still have another bite at the apple when they do eventually hit free agency.

 

For the millionth time and hopefully the last time, I don't care that he took an extension. I think a lot of players should do it. The thing I see here is the fact comparatively speaking this extension sucks compared to what other players have been getting in similar deal in recent history. I don't think the guaranteed money is notably low by about $10mil and I think those option years are a complete joke. This contract should not have a max value of $50mil.

 

Braves got lucky to have a player that no matter what they offered he was going to say yes. Even with little leverage pretty sad his agent couldn't do better.

[markedman5]

Then don't use the term robbed in the subject line.

 

Nobody was robbed.........There are reasons to do extensions and reasons not to........every situation is different.

[MrTPlush]

Then don't use the term robbed in the subject line.

Nobody was robbed.........There are reasons to do extensions and reasons not to........every situation is different.

 

 

Braves definitely took advantage of him though, not saying that is wrong though. They saw a player desperate for money and got him to take a deal well under what other players have gotten. That is what happens when one party has little to no leverage, but wants to get a deal done no matter what.

[And That]

It's interesting how Meter would hold out Kimbrel and make such demands for a closer

Kimbrel's agent isn't holding Kimbrel out, Kimbrel is holding Kimbrel out. If Kimbrel wants to sign a deal presented to him, he would direct his agent to accept the deal. Or change agents.

[KeithStone53151]

It's interesting how Meter would hold out Kimbrel and make such demands for a closer

Kimbrel's agent isn't holding Kimbrel out, Kimbrel is holding Kimbrel out. If Kimbrel wants to sign a deal presented to him, he would direct his agent to accept the deal. Or change agents.

 

Completely agree, agents work for the players. It's definitely possible that Kimbrel is listening to bad advice, but at the end of the day it's his decision. Remember when Gomez(Boras client) signed that team friendly extension with the Brewers? This completely defied standard Boras "get to free agency" strategy, so it's virtually certain that Gomez specifically instructed Boras to work on an extension for him. Point being, agents work for the player...the player calls the shots.

[wildcat83]

I really don't see how the term "robbed" is appropriate. He got guaranteed money, which to him, may be more important than risking it for a possible bump. This contract pretty much sets him for life, and he can still hit the open market for 1 more big deal if he plays well.

 

Guy like Villar turned down guaranteed money and ended up with far less. Some people like the stability to know it's there and that's his choice.

 

Oddly, compare Arcia's 2017 with Albies 2018... they are not drastically different in a LOT of categories. Regression can happen, injuries can happen. He obviously wanted the security of guaranteed money... good for him.

 

Arcia 17 - hit 277/324/407/731 with 14 SB, 100 K

Albies 18- hit 261/305/452/757 with 14 SB, 116 K

[LouisEly]

For the millionth time and hopefully the last time, I don't care that he took an extension. I think a lot of players should do it. The thing I see here is the fact comparatively speaking this extension sucks compared to what other players have been getting in similar deal in recent history. I don't think the guaranteed money is notably low by about $10mil and I think those option years are a complete joke. This contract should not have a max value of $50mil.

 

Braves got lucky to have a player that no matter what they offered he was going to say yes. Even with little leverage pretty sad his agent couldn't do better.

Not being condescending - who are the comps that you are using?

 

2018:

Albies: .261/.305/.452, .757 OPS

 

Most of the guys who have signed big extensions have much better numbers than that, and have much more established track records than one year in the majors. For a .757 OPS 2B, I don't think his deal is terrible.

[MrTPlush]

Yelich was similar at his extension time OPS wise (as an outfielder) if that is what you want to use. Kingery wasn’t even hitting MLB pitching. Both got more attractive deals in my opinion.

[pacopete4]

[sarcasm]Robbed?!? You gotta be kidding me![/sarcasm]

[xisxisxis]

What's clear from many of these early extensions is that there is now a measurable value that can be put on how players value "removing risk" and it's pretty clear it's much higher than many poster think. The market has spoken.

[NievesNoNO]

So he's pretty much given up 4 years of FA at 7 mil/per, correct? That's not good. It is hard to fault somebody for taking guaranteed financial freedom however.

 

It's a lot different to go into free agency as a 27 year old middle infielder vs. a 30 year old middle infielder. Honestly, most likely just the contract locking in the salaries for the arbitration years will be a steal for the team.

 

There is no risk by the team in this case. If he made no improvement on his numbers or ability, even a current version Albies at age 27 would probably garner $12-$15/ per season for 5-6 years. And we've seen what Machado type numbers would get you.

 

I mean good for Atlanta and good for Albies right now. It's obviously something he agreed to and knows what he potentially gave up. It's not like he was forced to take the deal. Personally, if I was him and my agent came to me with that deal, I would've fired him. But I suppose that's me now and not as a 22 year old.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Random tinfoil hat-related questions - during a players' strike, do the longterm guaranteed contracts still get paid to players even though there aren't games played? And, are pre-arbitration or arbitration-eligible players still paid if there isn't a season? Do those players accrue service time during a strike despite not having games? Depending on the answers to those questions, it might make quite a bit more sense for current pre-arbitration players to sign onto longterm extensions now, particularly if their initial foray into salary arbitration would line up after the current CBA expires.

[xisxisxis]

Random tinfoil hat-related questions - during a players' strike, do the longterm guaranteed contracts still get paid to players even though there aren't games played? And, are pre-arbitration or arbitration-eligible players still paid if there isn't a season? Do those players accrue service time during a strike despite not having games? Depending on the answers to those questions, it might make quite a bit more sense for current pre-arbitration players to sign onto longterm extensions now, particularly if their initial foray into salary arbitration would line up after the current CBA expires.

No, No, No.

[Ennder]

This is the Braves we are talking about, there is a decent chance they already gave him millions under the table when he was younger and they just didn't happen to get caught with this one.

[wntrtxn21]

Then don't use the term robbed in the subject line.

Nobody was robbed.........There are reasons to do extensions and reasons not to........every situation is different.

 

 

Braves definitely took advantage of him though, not saying that is wrong though. They saw a player desperate for money and got him to take a deal well under what other players have gotten. That is what happens when one party has little to no leverage, but wants to get a deal done no matter what.

 

How do you know Albies was desperate for money? He made over half a million dollars last year and is scheduled to make more this year. Pretty darn good for a guy from Curacao. Albies had ALL the leverage. He could say NO and wait for a huge pay day. However he could also get hurt and suddenly become a liability. He set himself up for life with the contract. Plus he'll earn a lot more after this contract expires. Not bad for a kid from a small island country.

[Oxy]

This is the Braves we are talking about, there is a decent chance they already gave him millions under the table when he was younger and they just didn't happen to get caught with this one.

 

This is kinda the elephant in the room. It's gotta be pretty much impossible to enforce something like this. We have trouble enough enforcing actually important things like drug smuggling and immigration--and giving a little extra help to some Latin American teenagers and their families is supposed to be a bad thing? And then we are supposed to be outraged if that teenager happens to reward that type of "help" with a loyalty signing like this? Color me shrugged.

[TURBO]

 

Braves got lucky to have a player that no matter what they offered he was going to say yes.

 

Ummmmm, really?

 

C'mon, that is just not true.

[JosephC]

It's interesting how Meter would hold out Kimbrel and make such demands for a closer

Kimbrel's agent isn't holding Kimbrel out, Kimbrel is holding Kimbrel out. If Kimbrel wants to sign a deal presented to him, he would direct his agent to accept the deal. Or change agents.

 

Yes, you are correct. That was a poor choice of words on my part. Especially with Kimbrel, who is a veteran that's been around the game a long time, has played for different teams, has seen many teammates come and go. Albies is still a very young guy that hasn't been around MLB clubhouses that long and probably relied heavily on his agent. If Kimbrel gets burned by his current situation, he really has no one to blame but himself. He should know how the business works.

[Oxy]

It's interesting how Meter would hold out Kimbrel and make such demands for a closer

Kimbrel's agent isn't holding Kimbrel out, Kimbrel is holding Kimbrel out. If Kimbrel wants to sign a deal presented to him, he would direct his agent to accept the deal. Or change agents.

 

Yes, you are correct. That was a poor choice of words on my part. Especially with Kimbrel, who is a veteran that's been around the game a long time, has played for different teams, has seen many teammates come and go. Albies is still a very young guy that hasn't been around MLB clubhouses that long and probably relied heavily on his agent. If Kimbrel gets burned by his current situation, he really has no one to blame but himself. He should know how the business works.

 

And maybe Kimbrel has had a somewhat miserable time of it constantly moving around all the time chasing the highest paycheck all over the country--thus refusing to sign a one year deal. He wants to settle down for 5 or 6 years and end his career in one place. Nobody has been willing to commit to a reliever for that long. His agent sees this and Albies sees this and is like "I want to stay in Atlanta for the rest of my career--Meter, make that happen"

 

For him perhaps the difference between 35 million and 100 million is just negligible monopoly money--the way the difference between 100 million and 300 million would be fairly negligible monopoly money to me. That may or may not be the case for him 10 years from now, but that might be how it seems right now.

 

Speculation is fun.

[OnTheBlack]

I'm trying to think of an elite non-pitching prospect who blew out a knee/elbow whatever and never did anything afterward. I'm coming up blank. Mat Gamel I guess but he wasn't elite by any means. Anyone else?

 

 

I can't think of one. Rocco Baldelli is the closest example I can think of when it comes to a "can't miss" type of elite talent that didn't really pan out. Still, he had two very good years at 21 and 22, got hurt and missed his age 23 season blowing out his knee, but came back to put up another 3.0 WAR season, but then developed a rare disease that ruined his career and he still fought his way back to come up with a couple of huge hits in the ALDS vs the Red Sox, including the game winning hit.

 

But if he doesn't suffer that illness, it's a different story.

 

 

I don't like this deal and I'm kinda shocked people are defending it so strongly. We're talking about a 22 year old kid, and the struggles these kids have coming to a new country is well documented. Comparing this to the Ryan Braun signing an extension(for a MUCH-MUCH better deal) as opposed to Prince not signing and instead opting for free agency is a little disingenuous. One is the son of a former big leaguer who was very familiar with how the business side of the game worked, and the other was from an upper middle class family in Southern California. Not quite the same as some kid here on his own(and yes, I do consider a 22 year old a kid) from Latin America.

 

I think he got taken advantage of. There's no question that he signed the deal, that both sides agreed...but I think he got taken advantage of.

 

This is a terrible deal BEFORE you get to the two option years the Braves have. When you throw those in, you can see why so many people are talking about this being one of the worst deals ever. I really hope ridiculous deals like this don't lead to a significant change in service time or compensation for players before they get to free agency.

 

This is a 22 year old kid who was an elite prospect, has a 4 WAR season under his belt, has great power, speed, defense, a good arm and a great hit tool at a premium position. You can always come up with a worse case scenario to justify arguing that his was a reasonable deal for both sides, but it's just kinda insane to me.

 

This deal is as bad for the player as the Chris Davis deal is for the team(Baltimore).

 

 

Just one last note, to those who are arguing that he ran the risk of walking away with nothing if he had a devastating injury..one that he couldn't come back from...whatever that might be for a guy with all his tools, if he was with a decent agency, I'm sure he had an insurance policy that would pay out ~10 million dollars if he had such an injury and then never played again. This is just horrible. This is like a David Bote type deal for a Machado like talent(that part may be hyperbole, but he's a big time talent).