Can Braun hit Cleanup?

[DHarris34Phan]

I think Ryan Braun is more than 'he is hitting in front of Prince'. He seems like he could man the 4 spot without the protection of Prince and still rake.

 

So, with JJ's struggles, could we flip Prince and Braun in the batting order? We would most likely kick start JJ again with Prince as protection, where he was an All Star for the 1st half of the year, and Ryan would be fine hitting Cleanup, IMO.

 

Hart

Hardy

Prince

Braun

 

The way our offensive has performed lately, we need that #2 hitter hot to give RBI opps. to Fielder and Braun, the hottest hitters on the team.

[JoeHova]

I'd keep Prince and Braun where they are for now, but I don't see why Braun couldn't hit cleanup. Anybody that hits for power can hit cleanup.

 

As for JJ, I'd prefer to move him down to 6th in the order before I started messing with Prince or Braun. I was looking at the numbers and JJ is slugging under .300 since May 25th. I don't think Babe Ruth batting behind him would make any difference, he just isn't hitting well lately. In fact, that's sort of an argument against protection mattering, because JJ's stretch of horrible play coincides almost perfectly with Braun's callup and Braun has been hitting at an MVP level the whole time he's been batting behind JJ.

[1992casey]

Putting sample and possible regression issues aside for a minute, Braun has the highest OBP and SLG pct. on the team. That screams cleanup.

 

Of course, Prince has a high OBP and high SLG pct., too, which also makes him an excellent choice.

 

Given that the #3 hitter comes to bat with two out and nobody on more than anyone else, it could be considered a 'waste' to bat either of those guys in that spot.

 

Of course, there's more to it than just the stats. In the heart of the order, keeping two lefties from hitting consecutively should be a priority. That's not an issue here, though.

 

My inclination would be to go with (3) Hall, (4) Prince, (5) Braun vs. righties. Vs. lefties I'd do (3) Prince, (4) Braun, (5) Hall.

 

(Good work by DHarris34Phan at keeping a full lineup out of the original post; it keeps the thread much more focused. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif)

[JohnBriggs12]

How does highest OBP scream cleanup? Especially when the problem isn't who is batting 3rd or 4th, but 1st, 2nd, and 5th right now.

 

Braun is the best hitter on the team right now. He's where he belongs. I can't say the same for Hardy though who needs to be dropped.

[hauser42]

Braun is more of a hitter that has power, were Prince is a power hitter.

 

Braun is a guy that will hit for average and be on base for Prince when he comes up. They need to be in these spots each and every day.

[1992casey]

JB, the cleanup hitter leads off innings more often than anyone other than the leadoff hitter.

 

EDIT: While I agree that the middle of the order (with Hall back) isn't a huge issue, there's nothing wrong with discussing it. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif We already have a thread for top-of-the order stuff, though, along with a thread for discussing the full lineup.

 

(edit 2: grammar)

[JohnBriggs12]

"The cleanup hitter leads off more often.."

 

Which wouldn't be as often with a high OBP guy in front of him would it? Call me old school, but isn't the job of the cleanup hitter to cleanup, not set the table?

[Ayt]

Well, Braun can do both, JB12.

[1992casey]

I think what you have to keep in mind is that if you go to ESPN and do sort for OBP, you'll find that most of the best OBPs belong to elite power hitters.

 

So while you certainly want high OBPs hitting before the cleanup hitter, chances are that the highest OBP on the team will end up defaulting to a power spot. I don't think anyone would argue using Fielder and Braun in the #1 or #2 spots, for instance (unless your lineup was so ridiculously good that you could afford that luxury).

 

I'm kind of hoping Russ can chime in a bit because he can explain some of the technical ramifications and would probably also have links. My understanding doesn't extend much past the raw data. While raw data is pretty hard to dispute, interpreting its meaning leaves a ton of room for discussion.

 

EDIT: Aytumious notes that Braun can do both table-setting and driving in runs. That's what I'm trying to say; your heart of the order should be doing both.

[FVBrewerFan]

I think Braun CAN hit clean-up, but why change the only thing that's working in this line-up? I do think it's time to move Hardy down in the line-up and try Weeks/Hart at the top- in either order. Without looking, I can't imagine Weeks' OPS is any worse that Hardy in July.

[DrWood]

I think we should clone braun and have him hitting in every slot of the order. We might want to even have a total of 12 brauns, and they could lead the 12 tribes of Israel.

 

point is, the way he is hitting right now he could hit anywhere.

[zzzmanwitz]

from what i recall, the three hole is the place that has nobody on and 2 outs more than any other spot in the order. So technically, shouldn't we put our worst hitter in the three spot? Just an interesting way to look at it.

[Team Canada]

I don't see any real benefit in Braun and Prince swapping spots. If anything, Braun 2nd and Hall 3rd should be considered, although that'd probably give Ned a chance to keep Estrada in the 5 hole.

[pitchleague]

Is this going to turn into another "Can Bill Hall Pitch?"-type threads?

[jason21nl]

Is this going to turn into another "Can Bill Hall Pitch?"-type threads?

 

well, can he?

 

I wouldn't mess where Braun is right now. He is out of his mind and I would ride that til its over.

[1992casey]

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from what i recall, the three hole is the place that has nobody on and 2 outs more than any other spot in the order. So technically, shouldn't we put our worst hitter in the three spot??

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Yeah, I mentioned that above. Glad to see you've committed that thought to memory. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

 

As I also mentioned, because it's raw data, it's tough to dispute that little factoid. But in addition, there are statisticians saying that putting one of a team's four top hitters into the #3 spot sacrifices second inning production for the sake of the first. That falls into the category of interpreting data and would be wide open for discussion.

 

I wouldn't go so far as to say a team's worst hitter should be in the three spot, though. After all, he will get more ABs than the #6, 7, and 8 hitters. But given the "nobody on and 2 outs" thing, I think #3 might be a nice spot for a lower OBP / high SLG guy or a good hitter who strikes out more than you'd like.

 

Last summer, the Science Channel aired a special on sabermetrics called Baseball's Secret Formula. One of the studies presented involved a lineup with four Babe Ruths and five Sandy Koufaxes. The best batting order had Babe hitting #1, 2, 4, & 5, with Koufax hitting #3, 6, 7, 8, and 9.

 

As far as the #2 spot, I think it's been fair to say that that spot has been 'elevated' in importance over the years. Most managers, statheads, and fans are now acknowledging the importance of OBP in that spot. Building on TC's "Braun hitting second" idea, the newest stuff is telling us that getting power?in addition to on base ability?into the top of the order is a really good thing that shouldn't be overlooked.

[FVBrewerFan]

In theory that makes sense. However, I would imagine the difference in hitting with nobody on and two outs is almost (if not) statistically insignificant from 1-9 in the line-up.

 

So you balance that vs a number that IS significant- number of ABs per game, nad you're far better off having one of your best hitters in the 3rd spot vs 6th or 7th.

[BrewCrewForever]

I think the 3 hole best suits Braun, but with his hitting ability and speed he could hit anywhere in any lineup.

[razzzorsharp]

Anothing thing to thin about is the fact that Braun's plus speed doesn't factor in as much with Fielder behind him. Batting fourth, the worries would not be as great about getting caught when trying to steal a base.

[GAME05]

wouldn't you rather have the slower Fielder hitting after the faster Braun? Fielder hits a double and Braun should score, but probably not the other way around.

 

Plus Braun is putting up some good SB numbers, so right now he's still setting the table in some sense for Fielder and Hall. if Braun hit any lower, the diamond would (in theory) have a batter or two on and negate Braun's speed.

[1992casey]

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?I would imagine the difference in hitting with nobody on and two outs is almost (if not) statistically insignificant from 1-9 in the line-up.

---

That's essentially what's happened with a lot of statistical study. Examining a relatively 'normal' complement of players (like you'd find on any of the 30 major league teams) rarely shows much difference when players are shuffled around. To get to the nuts and bolts of the matter and to see a difference, you have to use much more extreme examples.

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So you balance that vs a number that IS significant- number of ABs per game, nad you're far better off having one of your best hitters in the 3rd spot vs 6th or 7th.

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My gut says to agree with that. The study I cited doesn't get into #3 vs. #6 or #7, though. All it suggests is that you're better off putting a better hitter at #5 than at #3, despite the fact that #3 will bat a bit more often.

 

Obviously, the single study isn't enough. For starters, I'd continue the same thing and do 3 Ruths / 6 Koufaxes and 5 Ruths / 4 Koufaxes.

 

In the case of the TV show, limiting the batting order segment to one study would have simply matter of time-contstraint. It covered defense and strategies, too. Had this been a mini-series, an entire hour could have been devoted to lineups.

[Phenomenal Smith]

Quote:

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I wouldn't go so far as to say a team's worst hitter should be in the three spot, though. After all, he will get more ABs than the #6, 7, and 8 hitters. But given the "nobody on and 2 outs" thing, I think #3 might be a nice spot for a lower OBP / high SLG guy or a good hitter who strikes out more than you'd like.

---

 

I believe that Tango, Lichtman, and Dolphin advocate the following:

Your best OBP and SLG hitter should hit 4th. Your second best should hit 2nd. The third slot does have a lot of two out/ no runner situations, while the fifth slot has higher leverage at bats, so you should probably put a better hitter in the fifth slot than the third.

 

FWIW, I think Braun would be a great clean-up hitter.

[istanbultaye]

From what I understand, the biggest impact lineup order has to do with anything is determining the number of plate appearances in a season. Basically, take your best hitters and push them as high up in the lineup as you can w/o getting blasted by traditionalist fans and reporters. Braun and Fielder are our two best hitters, and other than Braun's speed profiling well in the 2 hole as well, I think they are pushed up as high as Ned would be able to get away with.

[1992casey]

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I believe that Tango, Lichtman, and Dolphin advocate the following:

Your best OBP and SLG hitter should hit 4th. Your second best should hit 2nd. The third slot does have a lot of two out/ no runner situations, while the fifth slot has higher leverage at bats, so you should probably put a better hitter in the fifth slot than the third.

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You may be right on that, Phenom. It seems consistent with what I've been 'reporting' and speculating on, especially in regard to #3-4-5.

 

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wouldn't you rather have the slower Fielder hitting after the faster Braun? Fielder hits a double and Braun should score, but probably not the other way around.

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Could be. I think the way to examine that one would be to create lineups with Braun, Fielder, and 7 average players, then seeing what happens.

 

 

(added quote for clarity)

[GAME05]

Could be. I think the way to examine that one would be to create lineups with Braun, Fielder, and 7 average players then seeing what happens.

 

The way Hardy's hitting lately, I'm pretty sure we've got that right now.