Greene and/or Cobb

[clancyphile]

Bleacher Report had some knee-jerk trade ideas:

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2830092-knee-jerk-mlb-trade-ideas-after-2019s-opening-weeks

 

The one involving the Brewers has them going for Alex Cobb, who has three years and had a hot second half of 2018. They cited the early struggles of Woodruff and Burnes.

 

Well, for me, Cobb is a hard pass. Costs too darn much, and the price in prospects is too darn high. Burnes and Woodruff will even out, and it's gonna do the Crew no good over the long haul to get Cobb.

 

On the other hand, Shane Greene, who Bleacher Report wanted the Cubs to trade for, is a very intriguing option. He's under control through 2020, and he'd bolster the bullpen, which could use a little help.

 

Here's what I'd do:

 

Tigers get:

RHP Bubba Derby

RHP Nate Griep

C Mario Feliciano

 

Brewers get:

RHP Shane Greene

$2 million in international bonus money

 

This not only bolsters the Brewers bullpen, it will deny the Cubs the bullpen help. Let them overpay for Kimbrel - the Crew will have Greene cheaper, and the Cubs will be in an even bigger financial hole.

[JosephC]

I'll play Tigers GM and counter your offer with-

 

Tigers get:

Eduarqui Fernandez

Adam Hill

 

Brewers get:

Shane Greene

 

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

I'll also play Orioles GM and make the Brewers the following offer

 

Orioles get:

Carlos Herrera

one Brewer "insider" named HighHeat19

 

Brewers get:

Alex Cobb

8.5 million dollars

[clancyphile]

I'll play Tigers GM and counter your offer with-

 

Tigers get:

Eduarqui Fernandez

Adam Hill

 

Brewers get:

Shane Greene

 

I'd probably counter that with:

Tigers get:

RHP Nate Griep

RHP Adam Hill

RHP Bubba Derby

 

Brewers get:

RHP Shane Greene

RHP Brian Garcia

 

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

I'll also play Orioles GM and make the Brewers the following offer

 

Orioles get:

Carlos Herrera

one Brewer "insider" named HighHeat19

 

Brewers get:

Alex Cobb

8.5 million dollars

 

And I'll counter with:

 

Orioles get:

3B Lucas Erceg

RHP Aaron Wilkerson

RHP Bowden Francis

SS C.J. Hinojosa

 

Brewers get:

RHP Alex Cobb

3B Ryan Mountcastle

IF Jean Carmona

[Brew crew 92]

I'll play Tigers GM and counter your offer with-

 

Tigers get:

Eduarqui Fernandez

Adam Hill

 

Brewers get:

Shane Greene

 

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

I'll also play Orioles GM and make the Brewers the following offer

 

Orioles get:

Carlos Herrera

one Brewer "insider" named HighHeat19

 

Brewers get:

Alex Cobb

8.5 million dollars

 

I’d do the Greene deal, not sure Avila would.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I'll play Tigers GM and counter your offer with-

 

Tigers get:

Eduarqui Fernandez

Adam Hill

 

Brewers get:

Shane Greene

 

I'd probably counter that with:

Tigers get:

RHP Nate Griep

RHP Adam Hill

RHP Bubba Derby

 

Brewers get:

RHP Shane Greene

RHP Brian Garcia

 

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

I'll also play Orioles GM and make the Brewers the following offer

 

Orioles get:

Carlos Herrera

one Brewer "insider" named HighHeat19

 

Brewers get:

Alex Cobb

8.5 million dollars

 

And I'll counter with:

 

Orioles get:

3B Lucas Erceg

RHP Aaron Wilkerson

RHP Bowden Francis

SS C.J. Hinojosa

 

Brewers get:

RHP Alex Cobb

3B Ryan Mountcastle

IF Jean Carmona

 

I see you throw Wilkerson's name into prospective deals all the time? Why is this? Who is going to see a 30-year-old AAAA tweener who needs a 40-man spot as any sort of asset?

[adambr2]

Wilkerson is worth zero as a trade asset. He has some small value to us being starter depth as someone who could cover an injury at the MLB level like a Hiram Burgos from a few years ago. But frankly I'm surprised Wilkerson has survived 40 man roster cuts as long as he has so far.

[clancyphile]

I'll play Tigers GM and counter your offer with-

 

Tigers get:

Eduarqui Fernandez

Adam Hill

 

Brewers get:

Shane Greene

 

I'd probably counter that with:

Tigers get:

RHP Nate Griep

RHP Adam Hill

RHP Bubba Derby

 

Brewers get:

RHP Shane Greene

RHP Brian Garcia

 

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

I'll also play Orioles GM and make the Brewers the following offer

 

Orioles get:

Carlos Herrera

one Brewer "insider" named HighHeat19

 

Brewers get:

Alex Cobb

8.5 million dollars

 

And I'll counter with:

 

Orioles get:

3B Lucas Erceg

RHP Aaron Wilkerson

RHP Bowden Francis

SS C.J. Hinojosa

 

Brewers get:

RHP Alex Cobb

3B Ryan Mountcastle

IF Jean Carmona

 

I see you throw Wilkerson's name into prospective deals all the time? Why is this? Who is going to see a 30-year-old AAAA tweener who needs a 40-man spot as any sort of asset?

 

Because while a team may be trying to rebuild with prospects, they still need a major league roster. Wilkerson is a high-end AAAA pitcher. Maybe he doesn't fit well with a healthy Brewers team, but as cheap rotation filler for a rebuilding team like Baltimore or Miami, he makes a ton of sense - buying time for them.

 

If he catches lightning in a bottle - great, sell high, get some more prospects. If he's okay - you have 3-4 cheap years of someone who can at least keep the team in a game. If he flames out... well, he didn't hurt your payroll flexibility that much and you'll likely get a better draft pick.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

 

Because while a team may be trying to rebuild with prospects, they still need a major league roster. Wilkerson is a high-end AAAA pitcher. Maybe he doesn't fit well with a healthy Brewers team, but as cheap rotation filler for a rebuilding team like Baltimore or Miami, he makes a ton of sense - buying time for them.

 

If he catches lightning in a bottle - great, sell high, get some more prospects. If he's okay - you have 3-4 cheap years of someone who can at least keep the team in a game. If he flames out... well, he didn't hurt your payroll flexibility that much and you'll likely get a better draft pick.

 

There are guys just as good if not better than Wilkerson who are waived nearly every day, with the added bonus that you can sign them to a minor league deal and not have to take up a 40-man spot. If the Brewers were to waive Wilkerson, I would say the chances are very strong he'd make it through unclaimed.

[JosephC]

I'll play Tigers GM and counter your offer with-

 

Tigers get:

Eduarqui Fernandez

Adam Hill

 

Brewers get:

Shane Greene

 

I'd probably counter that with:

Tigers get:

RHP Nate Griep

RHP Adam Hill

RHP Bubba Derby

 

Brewers get:

RHP Shane Greene

RHP Brian Garcia

 

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

I'll also play Orioles GM and make the Brewers the following offer

 

Orioles get:

Carlos Herrera

one Brewer "insider" named HighHeat19

 

Brewers get:

Alex Cobb

8.5 million dollars

 

And I'll counter with:

 

Orioles get:

3B Lucas Erceg

RHP Aaron Wilkerson

RHP Bowden Francis

SS C.J. Hinojosa

 

Brewers get:

RHP Alex Cobb

3B Ryan Mountcastle

IF Jean Carmona

 

I see you throw Wilkerson's name into prospective deals all the time? Why is this? Who is going to see a 30-year-old AAAA tweener who needs a 40-man spot as any sort of asset?

 

What is far more illogical is the inclusion of Ryan Mountcastle. The Orioles would probably love nothing more than to dump Cobb's salary, but they clearly don't need too. They are a team that has run a 150 million dollar payroll in the past, have it down to about 80 million this year, and will be dumping another 23 million after the following season in the Cashner and Trumbo contracts. After they likely trade off a couple more arbitration deals (Villar being one example), they will likely be running something like a 60-65 million dollar payroll in 2020 like the Brewers did a couple years ago. And Cobb is making 14-15 million per season, it's a bad contract but not a hideous contract like the Chris Davis deal.

 

So what motivation would the Orioles have to give up a legitimate top 100 prospect like Ryan Mountcastle and basically get back Erceg and what currently ranks as a bunch of junk from Milwaukee? It would be like, taking the Brewers from 2 years ago, being so desperate to trade Ryan Braun that they were willing to throw in Brett Phillips and get one decent, descending type prospect and nothing else back in return. But this is worse in that there is more money in Braun's contract and Milwaukee is a smaller market than Baltimore, making the financial impact that much more significant.

 

The Orioles are a bad, rebuilding team and are not going to give away prospects to unload Alex Cobb's contract.

[Lathund]

Wilkersons very good numbers in AAA/AA are why he's still around. Those numbers are as a starter with a 4-pitch mix, albeit without overpowering stuff. If he can hack it in the majors remains to be seen (No, 19 innings over two years, without any consistent role, is not enough to say either way), but a guy who has done that well in the upper minors, who still has two option years remaining is a lot better than what you regularly see on the waiver wire, which is mostly relievers and/or guys with no options remaining. He'd get snapped up almost immediately if waived, as there's literally no downside to it for any team with a 40-man spot open or easily created, which is nearly every rebuilding team and several of the others too. That start in St. Louis was very encouraging as well. You need a lot of starters to get through a full season, and if he's your 8th/9th starter you've got excellent depth; he'd be a lot higher on the depth chart on many teams.

[HiAndTight]

Wilkersons very good numbers in AAA/AA are why he's still around. Those numbers are as a starter with a 4-pitch mix, albeit without overpowering stuff. If he can hack it in the majors remains to be seen (No, 19 innings over two years, without any consistent role, is not enough to say either way), but a guy who has done that well in the upper minors, who still has two option years remaining is a lot better than what you regularly see on the waiver wire, which is mostly relievers and/or guys with no options remaining. He'd get snapped up almost immediately if waived, as there's literally no downside to it for any team with a 40-man spot open or easily created, which is nearly every rebuilding team and several of the others too. That start in St. Louis was very encouraging as well. You need a lot of starters to get through a full season, and if he's your 8th/9th starter you've got excellent depth; he'd be a lot higher on the depth chart on many teams.

 

 

Agreed. He actually makes a lot of sense going to a Detroit/Baltimore situation. He doesn't have to have a lot of value, just some.

[JohnBriggs12]

Wilkerson doesn't fit the normal profile. He went undrafted and didn't get to affiliated ball until he was 25. Yet he's had considerable success at the upper levels of the minor leagues and in very small major league sample he's got a nice WHIP of 1.157. For a rebuilding team not wanting to rush prospects or spend money for mediocre veterans to be stopgaps, he makes a lot of sense. Because he's 30, you don't worry about him logging too many innings either. That doesn't add up to much trade value, but as an extra piece he can be used.

[NYChez]

Cobb just gave up back-to-back-to-back home runs in the first inning and has an ERA of 12.60. Great opportunity to buy low!

[bill hAll Star]

Greene seems to be pitching somewhat better, but right now most of the stats point to a ton of luck being the difference in his stats between this year and last year.

[TURBO]

Still pretty happy we stayed away from Cobb and Archer...

[brewmann04]

hell yeah on that add Darvish too.