Petricka to Brewers

[DHonks]

Don’t think anyone posted this, but yesterday the Brewers sent Williams down

[Tbadder]

So starts the merry-go-round. Hopefully it’s done as expertly as last year.

[JohnBriggs12]

So starts the merry-go-round. Hopefully it’s done as expertly as last year.

 

I don't think this move quite falls into the merry-go-round category. Petricka missed making the team out of spring training by a razor thin margin. He's a veteran major league reliever. Williams struggled out of the gate. He didn't have that luxury. He'll have to earn his way back.

[coolhandluke121]

This bullpen is going to be hot garbage outside of Hader.

[3and2Fastball]

This bullpen is going to be hot garbage outside of Hader.

 

Jeffress is due back in a few weeks. Wilson & Claudio have looked pretty good at times. I would expect they'll add to the bullpen at the trade deadline.

[coolhandluke121]

I'm not ready to talk myself into believing in them. There's just way too many guys with too much history of imploding, and who knows if Jeffress will bounce back fully. Look how long it took Matt Harvey to bounce back after a year of over-use.

 

I'm not going to argue the point much more than I already have, and more power to you if you can remain optimistic, but right now I honestly think it's absolute trash. I did a little exercise where I pretended I was not a Brewers fan but just a fan of some random AL team that isn't really a rival, and it was eye-opening to realize how bad this bullpen could be. I'll grant that a few guys will probably do reasonably well just by random chance, but beyond the impact Hader provides, there's almost no lower limit to how bad they could be. And there's not much upside beyond a few questionable guys ending up surprisingly "serviceable".

[OldSchoolSnapper]

I'm not ready to talk myself into believing in them. There's just way too many guys with too much history of imploding, and who knows if Jeffress will bounce back fully. Look how long it took Matt Harvey to bounce back after a year of over-use.

 

Jeffress wasn't overused. But I agree there is reason for concern. I've been keeping it in, but a lot of reason to believe 8-2 is a bit of a mirage. Run differential hasn't been very flattering. It wasn't last year either, but the pen made that passable. I'm not sure we can expect that again.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I'm not ready to talk myself into believing in them. There's just way too many guys with too much history of imploding, and who knows if Jeffress will bounce back fully. Look how long it took Matt Harvey to bounce back after a year of over-use.

 

I'm not going to argue the point much more than I already have, and more power to you if you can remain optimistic, but right now I honestly think it's absolute trash. I did a little exercise where I pretended I was not a Brewers fan but just a fan of some random AL team that isn't really a rival, and it was eye-opening to realize how bad this bullpen could be. I'll grant that a few guys will probably do reasonably well just by random chance, but beyond the impact Hader provides, there's almost no lower limit to how bad they could be. And there's not much upside beyond a few questionable guys ending up surprisingly "serviceable".

 

Bullpens are volatile. You just described the Brewers April-August 2018 bullpen in a nutshell. This bullpen didn't jell last year until Knebel came back from his demotion, and Woodruff and Burnes were inserted.

[pacopete4]

I'm not ready to talk myself into believing in them. There's just way too many guys with too much history of imploding, and who knows if Jeffress will bounce back fully. Look how long it took Matt Harvey to bounce back after a year of over-use.

 

I'm not going to argue the point much more than I already have, and more power to you if you can remain optimistic, but right now I honestly think it's absolute trash. I did a little exercise where I pretended I was not a Brewers fan but just a fan of some random AL team that isn't really a rival, and it was eye-opening to realize how bad this bullpen could be. I'll grant that a few guys will probably do reasonably well just by random chance, but beyond the impact Hader provides, there's almost no lower limit to how bad they could be. And there's not much upside beyond a few questionable guys ending up surprisingly "serviceable".

 

Bullpens are volatile. You just described the Brewers April-August 2018 bullpen in a nutshell. This bullpen didn't jell last year until Knebel came back from his demotion, and Woodruff and Burnes were inserted.

 

Spot on post Joey. I think we forget just how rocky our pen was during a lot of the season a year ago. They fought through it as a good ball team does. It is really hard to get a pen that just shuts down everyone for 162 games in a year. While the Brewers might not be as good as their 8-2 record in their first ten games, their bullpen probably isn't as bad as a lot of posters are making them out to being either.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

Bullpens are volatile but the Brewers won 96 games last year with a run differential of +95. Look at the other division champions and you can see how differently that team was built. Just saying there wasn't and probably isn't a whole lot of margin for error. The pen basically has to be very good or they have to score a lot more runs or a little bit of both. 8-3 with a RD of -1 is not very comforting. It's April 9 though.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Bullpens are volatile but the Brewers won 96 games last year with a run differential of +95. Look at the other division champions and you can see how differently that team was built. Just saying there wasn't and probably isn't a whole lot of margin for error. The pen basically has to be very good or they have to score a lot more runs or a little bit of both. 8-3 with a RD of -1 is not very comforting. It's April 9 though.

 

Yep. They've also played three series against three teams that many are pegging as playoff contenders (the Reds arguably are not, but many considered them a darkhorse). Considering the schedule so far, I'll take 8-3.

[True Blue Brew Crew]

Yep. They've also played three series against three teams that many are pegging as playoff contenders (the Reds arguably are not, but many considered them a darkhorse). Considering the schedule so far, I'll take 8-3.

 

Heck yeah. The next time the sky isn't falling after a loss will be the first time. In defense of those who have raised legitimate concerns like CHL, that doesn't mean the team is smoking cigars and popping champagne in the executive offices. Some of the numbers they are no doubt looking at aren't pretty. I trust that they're constantly keeping on an eye on various sources of talent infusion.

[coolhandluke121]

I know it was bad last year too, but this year I think it's worse. I understand how bullpen fortunes change, but there's not much in anyone's history besides Hader to lead one to expect pleasant surprises. There's also not as much talent to call up from the minors.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I know it was bad last year too, but this year I think it's worse. I understand how bullpen fortunes change, but there's not much in anyone's history besides Hader to lead one to expect pleasant surprises. There's also not as much talent to call up from the minors.

 

Josh Fields has 2 1/2 seasons of consistently good bullpen work with the Dodgers over the last three years. I expect him to be the next guy brought up when the need arises.

[coolhandluke121]

I'm not saying I'm ready to bet big money on them being terrible. "Bullpens are volatile" is a good mantra. But I find it hard to picture this group being successful. Guys like Fields, Petricka, and Claudio with a couple good years to their name remind me of how Barnes, Williams, Jennings, and even Drake had some promising statistics to pick from going into last year. There might be a few trees worth looking at, but the forest as a whole looks pretty ominous. There's just not a lot of real talent there.

[tmwiese55]

I generally agree. There is pretty much no one besides Hader right now that I'm not worried about when they come in the game. Anything can happen with everyone else at this point.

 

I'd nitpick the comment that said our pen was just as questionable last year until September-ish. Mid season, I agree. April through like late May though they were very good. Hader, JJ, Albers were all lights out to start the year. Barnes also did very well at the start I think.

[coolhandluke121]

Even Drake had a 1.125 e.r.a. until the middle of April last year. Also, last year's pen collapsed in part due to having so many games right before the ASB. Wasn't it 22 games in 21 days? This bullpen is showing signs of falling apart just 11 games in. That's not good.

[Outlander]

Maybe the bullpen wasn't as questionable at this point last year but the guys they counted on most August-the playoffs were Jeffress/Burnes/Knebel/Soria/Woodruff/Hader. Now they only have Hader in the bullpen.

[tmwiese55]

Maybe the bullpen wasn't as questionable at this point last year but the guys they counted on most August-the playoffs were Jeffress/Burnes/Knebel/Soria/Woodruff/Hader. Now they only have Hader in the bullpen.

 

that is a very good way to put it.

[True Blue Brew Crew]

Come August they'll no doubt add a couple useful arms via trade if need be. Relievers on expiring deals are a dime a dozen at the deadline. They also have Zack Brown that they can deploy the way they did with the young 3 currently in the rotation. Not to mention, one of said 3 could very well find themselves back in the pen if Jimmy Nelson ever returns to the rotation. And they could get some quality innings out of guys like Sanchez, Olczak, Derby, Houser, etc. They key will be getting to August.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Maybe the bullpen wasn't as questionable at this point last year but the guys they counted on most August-the playoffs were Jeffress/Burnes/Knebel/Soria/Woodruff/Hader. Now they only have Hader in the bullpen.

 

By that same token, the guys they depended on for big outs in the pen at this time last year were Hader, JJ, Albers, Taylor Williams and Barnes. This was the early season "closer by committee" stretch that was very effective after a few early hiccups. Assuming JJ comes back and is effective, they are playing a nearly identical hand.

[Lathund]

I'm not overly concerned about the bullpen, but I guess it's also a matter of expectations and what the plan is. It's not the kind of super 'pen it ended up being last year, so if that's the yardstick then yeah it'll fall short. But I also expect more from the offense and rotation compared to last year, so unlike last year an elite bullpen isn't a must to get to the postseason. So far, with the small sample size available, it's the stats with the worst predictive value that looks bad, while the ones with better predictive value are the ones pointing to an average to above-average bullpen. The bullpen guys have ~5 IP each, and all of them at Miller Park and GABP, so I wouldn't read much into noisy stats like ERA or HR rates. Bullpens are also somewhat unique in that they're the one area of the team that doesn't need to be great overall as long as the high leverage unit is. With Hader (And hopefully/probably) JJ it is. Use the split-heavy guys like Barnes and Claudio (Who people keep underrating) correctly and they'll put up very good numbers too. We're nowhere near panic time yet.

[Thurston Fluff]

I think most successful bullpens in any given season depends on multiple options beyond just the ones pegged to contribute before the season starts. TO me it appears we have more legitimate options than most teams but fewer than last season. As long as we have enough guys in the minors that are major league ready it will sort itself out.

[Brew crew 92]

I'm not ready to talk myself into believing in them. There's just way too many guys with too much history of imploding, and who knows if Jeffress will bounce back fully. Look how long it took Matt Harvey to bounce back after a year of over-use.

 

Jeffress wasn't overused. But I agree there is reason for concern. I've been keeping it in, but a lot of reason to believe 8-2 is a bit of a mirage. Run differential hasn't been very flattering. It wasn't last year either, but the pen made that passable. I'm not sure we can expect that again.

 

Jeffress pitched 84 innings last year, 18 more than any previous year. So I would argue he was overused, weakness in shoulder not withstanding.

[coolhandluke121]

 

Jeffress pitched 84 innings last year, 18 more than any previous year. So I would argue he was overused, weakness in shoulder not withstanding.

 

He also pitched over multiple innings more than he's used to. I'm not sure that's good or bad for relievers, but I'm under the impression that most of them prefer to only pitch one inning because coming back for the next inning just requires extra warm-up pitches and preparation.

 

He also was a beast in the late push to catch the Cubs. They used him a lot in September. I think he was running on a lot of adrenaline and pitching his heart out, but then when the season lasted 3 more weeks he had nothing left in the tank after the late season push. Imagine running a marathon and maxing out to take the lead at the finish line, only to see the finish line moved half a mile back.