2019 Green Bay Packers draft preview and predictions

[pacopete4]

That’s more like it!

[LouisEly]

- DT Christian Wilkens (A guy who has been rising in some mocks. I've even seen him in the top 10 on a few boards, and I saw one mock with the Packers taking him at #12 - which I think is too high - but that's just me.)

I'll bet you've seen more than one.

[reillymcshane]

- DT Christian Wilkens (A guy who has been rising in some mocks. I've even seen him in the top 10 on a few boards, and I saw one mock with the Packers taking him at #12 - which I think is too high - but that's just me.)

I'll bet you've seen more than one.

I've seen Wilkens all over the 1st round. Once or twice in the top 10. But most in the 15-30 range. I believe one had us taking him at #30.

 

But I've seen him rising up in mocks as of late. I'm not sure why.

[CheezWizHed]

I'd guess any riser/fallers occurring now is based more on rumors of who likes whom... of course, those could also be smoke-screens or Russia collusion.

[brewcrewdue80]

Here's a terrible mock draft. Brought to you by NFL.com's own Chad Reuter

 

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000001027100/article/chad-reuter-2019-sevenround-nfl-mock-draft-round-1

 

4 QBs gone by pick 9. Drew Lock whom some mocks have to us at #30 is picked 2nd! after Oakland trades up 2 spots! for that 4th pick, a 2nd rd, and one of the team's 2020 1st rd pick.

 

That is ugly as it gets. Because SF is certainly not picking a QB, and he predicts the Jets would trade #3 to a team for Drew Lock then all the way down to 9 or 10. A guarantee not to get Allen or Bosa? Gotta be a Jets fan and it's his only way he can get Bosa in his mind for NY.

 

I might remember wrong on Lock to us and thinking of Daniel Jones. Sorta interchangeable names.

[JosephC]

I'd be picking these players for Green Bay in Reuter's scenario:

 

1-12 - Rashan Gary/DE/Michigan

1-30 - Noah Fant/TE/Iowa

2-44 - Juan Thornhill/S/Virginia

3-75 - Max Scharping/OT/Northern Illinois

4-114 - Isaiah Johnson/CB/Houston

4-118 - Michael Dieter/OG/Wisconsin

5-150 - Darius Slayton/WR/Auburn

6-185 - Ty Summers/ILB/Texas Christian

6-194 - Christian Miller/OLB/Alabama

7-226 - Marvell Tell/S/Southern California

[nodakfan17]

I look forward to draft week every year. I usually designate Saturday as my annual garage cleaning day, just so I can listen to sports talk radio all day without upsetting my wife.

 

I’m a big BPA proponent, but I’d love to see the Packers go TE, OL, and Safety (in no particular order) with their first 3 picks.

[JosephC]

The Journal-Sentinel has listed 25 of Green Bay's 30 pre-draft visits. I have sorted by position and then added an estimate as to where each player will be drafted.

 

QB - Drew Lock/Missouri (late 1st)

FB/TE - Andrew Beck/Texas (undrafted)

FB - John Lovett/Princeton (undrafted, college QB that project to fullback)

WR - Jeff Smith/Boston College (undrafted)

WR - DeAndre Thompkins/Penn State (undrafted)

TE - Jace Sternberger/Texas A&M (mid 3rd)

TE - Kahale Warring/San Diego State (late 3rd)

OT - Andre Dillard/Washington State (mid 1st)

OT - Kaleb McGary/Washington (early 2nd)

OT - Greg Little/Mississippi (early 2nd)

OT - Tytus Howard/Alabama State (mid 3rd, but I'm expecting him to go in round 2)

OG - Jonah Williams/Alabama (mid 1st)

OG - Nate Herbig/Stanford (early 6th)

DT - Trysten Hill/Central Florida (late 3rd)

DT - Greg Gaines/Washington (late 5th)

OLB - Montez Sweat/Mississippi State (early 1st)

OLB - Jesse Aniebonam/Maryland (undrafted)

OLB - Kaden Elliss/Idaho (undrafted)

OLB - Randy Ramsey/Arkansas (undrafted)

OLB - E.J. Speed/Tarleton State (undrafted)

ILB - Curtis Bolton/Oklahoma (7th round/undrafted)

ILB - Ulysees Gilbert/Akron (undrafted)

CB - Sean Bunting/Central Michigan (mid 3rd)

CB - Ka'dar Hollman/Toledo (undrafted)

LS - John Wirtel/Kansas (undrafted)

 

It has also been widely reported that the Packers wanted to use one of the 30 meetings on Duke QB-Daniel Jones (late round 1 grade), but couldn't set up the visit due to scheduling conflicts.

 

The Packers had also met with the following players at the combine:

 

DT - Ed Oliver/Houston (early 1st)

TE - Noah Fant/Iowa (late 1st)

TE - Jace Sternberger/Texas A&M (mid 3rd)

OT - Jawaan Taylor/Florida (early 1st)

DT - Quinnen Williams/Alabama (early 1st)

OLB - Jachai Polite/Florida (late 3rd)

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Reading a lot lately saying that Montez Sweat is free falling due to some medical concerns. I know a lot of this crap is smoke, but if the Packers could grab him at #30, that is huge value.

[JosephC]

Even with the heart condition, I don't think Sweat makes it to #12 much less #30. They do the physicals at the combine prior to the workouts, and the doctors there cleared him and allowed him to fully participate in workout activities. Any heart condition is a concern, but based on the info we have, I would have to assume that he would pass the physical of a majority of teams.

 

It's also worth noting that Washington OT-Kaleb McGary also has a heart condition, and the Packers had him in for a visit. Obviously the medical evaluations at the combine were not enough for Green Bay to remove either player from their board prior to scheduling the visit. Now maybe that changed when the team doctors took a look, but that is something we will probably never find out (unless the Packers end up selecting one or both of these players).

[RollieTime]

I would love Sweat at 12. He was the one guy I was hoping would somehow fall to the Packers prior to the heart condition coming out. But now I think it is much more likely. Sweat is an absolute athletic freak. His heart condition is a red flag, but he is exactly what the Packers have lacked on defense for a few years.

 

Sweat has the ability to be a player similar to Mack. If he is somehow there for the Packers, I don’t see how you could pass on him. When you have the chance to get a guy with that kind of talent, you need to take it. Packers need an absolute force on defense and I see Sweat being that type of player from day 1.

 

I don’t see the Packers having another top 15 pick for quite a few years unless they trade up. This is their year to hit big on a high first round pick. Hopefully Sweat drops to the Packers at 12 and hopefully the Packers are confident enough in his medicals that they won’t pass on him.

[reillymcshane]

Regarding Sweat, I've read that some teams have been scared off on him. However, I've also read that the condition isn't serious - and he should be fine as long as he is monitored properly.

 

Still, I can see how some teams might not want to see the condition get worse.

 

If a few teams pass on him due to the issue, and he falls to us, I'd take him. That's probably the ONLY reason he falls to us.

[brewcrewdue80]

Hey, a site put together it's own Big Board. They have 1st round names below #50 in it so approach it a little openly. Kinda reads off some stats, and in a way it'd be like a Clancy ranking! You at least get a little blurb about the player that may make you feel better about a name you hadn't heard and the Packers picked him. For Example:

 

206. DI Daniel Wise, Kansas

 

Weighing in at 6-foot-3, 281 pounds, Kansas’ Wise should move inside at the next level after playing edge defender with the Jayhawks in 2018. He earned a strong 83.1 run-defense grade a year ago, ranking 17th among qualifiers.

207. RB James Williams, Washington State

 

Williams earned the best receiving grade (90.7) of any draft-eligible back with at least 300 offensive snaps in 2018. His receiving chops should give him early opportunities in the NFL on passing downs.

208. C Ross Pierschbacher, Alabama

 

Pierschbacher, a four-year starter for the Crimson tide, earned a career-high 76.2 pass-blocking grade in 2018. He earned 67.7-plus overall grade all four years of his collegiate career.

209. QB Easton Stick, North Dakota State

 

Stick earned a 91.1 overall grade this past season albeit against FCS competition. He’s a fantastic athlete as well who’s leagues are a real threat.

 

I scrolled up and Jonathon Abram is at 112. Someone I think is tied around early 2nd in a number of mocks. Maybe even a 1st here and there.

 

Here's the link:

https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/draft-pffs-top-250-big-board-for-the-2019-nfl-draft

 

Let's add a big board that seems to avg out 23 big boards.

http://www.nflbigboard.com/

 

#11-17 is put #15.14-17.77 in avg. It doesn't get that bunched up until you get to the players in the 70-90 range.

 

There has to be some old boards among this ranking as Jachai Polite has as high as #6 and low of 165.

[reillymcshane]

Seeing a lot of buzz around OG Chris Lindstrom from Boston College as our pick at #30 - assuming he is still around.

[Mustang_51D]

Yeah, Sweat's heart is unfortunately a time bomb, especially since he's working, well, in sports... Poor guy should get a cushy job that wouldn't be too hard on his heart, but he's one hell of a great player and can't really leave the career and earn a fraction of his current wage for a job he likes less...

[JosephC]

Gaines Adams died from a condition that is reported to be similar to Sweat. His condition was undetected. Nick Fairley has a similar condition to Sweat that was found in the pre-draft physical and went on to play for six NFL seasons and then was apparently shut down by doctors. The more I've looked into Sweat's condition, the more concerns I have about it. I think it's pretty unlikely that he will have a 10 year career, and will likely be shut down by doctor's at some point. It's anyone's guess is to when that will be. It's obviously not really serious right now, because they have excluded players from participating in combine activities after the physical and they allowed Sweat to participate. NFL teams just have to trust the medical opinions on this one.

 

A pretty interesting article on the Maurice Hurst situation, it's unknown at this time if Hurst has the same condition as Adams/Fairley/Sweat but it's definitely worth taking the time to read this article:

https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/sports/profootballdoc/sd-sp-pfd-maurice-hurst-raiders-draft-irresponsible-0503-story.html

 

Hurst was diagnosed with his condition during his freshman year at Michigan, went on to play four seasons for the Wolverines and played in 13 games for the Raiders last season.

[JosephC]

I mocked through the first 11 picks and somehow wound up with a near-doomsday situation for the Packers. Obviously this won't happen as I'd expect the trade activity to really start around pick #8 which jumbles things up. The positive is that I don't see an early run on QBs, and with Miami and Washington needing QBs and sitting right after Green Bay, it presents excellent trade down opportunities. Actually, that's where things will get jumbled up, because those are the teams that would likely look to move up to Detroit's spot at #8 to get their QB ahead of Denver (although I think Denver will be content with Flacco for one year, and at least this morning it appears that most Bronco geared sites are naming Devin Bush as the favorite for Denver's first pick).

 

1. Cardinals - Kyler Murray/QB/Oklahoma

2. 49ers - Nick Bosa/DE/Ohio State

3. Jets - Quinnen Williams/DT/Alabama

4. Raiders - Josh Allen/OLB/Kentucky

5. Buccaneers - Devin White/LB/Louisiana State

6. Giants - Ed Oliver/DT/Houston

7. Jaguars - Jawaan Taylor/OT/Florida

8. Lions - Rashan Gary/DE/Michigan

9. Bills - Andre Dillard/OT/Washington State

10. Broncos-Devin Bush/LB/Michigan

11. Bengals - T.J. Hockenson/TE/Iowa

[patrickgpe]

I mocked through the first 11 picks and somehow wound up with a near-doomsday situation for the Packers. Obviously this won't happen as I'd expect the trade activity to really start around pick #8 which jumbles things up. The positive is that I don't see an early run on QBs, and with Miami and Washington needing QBs and sitting right after Green Bay, it presents excellent trade down opportunities. Actually, that's where things will get jumbled up, because those are the teams that would likely look to move up to Detroit's spot at #8 to get their QB ahead of Denver (although I think Denver will be content with Flacco for one year, and at least this morning it appears that most Bronco geared sites are naming Devin Bush as the favorite for Denver's first pick).

 

1. Cardinals - Kyler Murray/QB/Oklahoma

2. 49ers - Nick Bosa/DE/Ohio State

3. Jets - Quinnen Williams/DT/Alabama

4. Raiders - Josh Allen/OLB/Kentucky

5. Buccaneers - Devin White/LB/Louisiana State

6. Giants - Ed Oliver/DT/Houston

7. Jaguars - Jawaan Taylor/OT/Florida

8. Lions - Rashan Gary/DE/Michigan

9. Bills - Andre Dillard/OT/Washington State

10. Broncos-Devin Bush/LB/Michigan

11. Bengals - T.J. Hockenson/TE/Iowa

 

Burns at 12 then!

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I mocked through the first 11 picks and somehow wound up with a near-doomsday situation for the Packers. Obviously this won't happen as I'd expect the trade activity to really start around pick #8 which jumbles things up. The positive is that I don't see an early run on QBs, and with Miami and Washington needing QBs and sitting right after Green Bay, it presents excellent trade down opportunities. Actually, that's where things will get jumbled up, because those are the teams that would likely look to move up to Detroit's spot at #8 to get their QB ahead of Denver (although I think Denver will be content with Flacco for one year, and at least this morning it appears that most Bronco geared sites are naming Devin Bush as the favorite for Denver's first pick).

 

1. Cardinals - Kyler Murray/QB/Oklahoma

2. 49ers - Nick Bosa/DE/Ohio State

3. Jets - Quinnen Williams/DT/Alabama

4. Raiders - Josh Allen/OLB/Kentucky

5. Buccaneers - Devin White/LB/Louisiana State

6. Giants - Ed Oliver/DT/Houston

7. Jaguars - Jawaan Taylor/OT/Florida

8. Lions - Rashan Gary/DE/Michigan

9. Bills - Andre Dillard/OT/Washington State

10. Broncos-Devin Bush/LB/Michigan

11. Bengals - T.J. Hockenson/TE/Iowa

 

You see Clelin Ferrell dropping out of the top 10?

[patrickgpe]

Most mocks I see have Ferrell in the high 20's

[JosephC]

With the way things are shaping up, I wouldn't be surprised if Gutekunst throws a real curve ball at #12 and takes someone like OG-Cody Ford/Oklahoma. From the videos I've viewed on Tennessee's offense last year, it sure looked like they were a standard zone blocking team, and if that's the case someone like OG-Jonah Williams is probably a better fit. I didn't think there was any possibility of a guard at #12 when I got up this morning, but with the way things are shaking out, there is a pretty decent chance it will happen. I also wouldn't be shocked if they drafted Noah Fant at #12 either. I did a lot of looking at former Mike Pettine defenses, and while there have been some 6-0 LBs that have backed up, it seems like most of his starting linebackers have stood in the 6-3/6-2 area, which makes me think they won't take ILB-Devin Bush/Michigan even if he is available. But who knows for sure? Gutekunst only has a one-year track record and LaFleur has no track record as a head coach.

 

I'll do this projection today:

 

1-12 = Jonah Williams/OG/Alabama

Actually had penciled in OG-Cody Ford/Oklahoma at this spot and went back and changed it because Ford seems better suited for a power scheme and Williams seems better suited for a zone scheme. But that decision was largely based on YouTube videos and my amateur eye which could be completely wrong in evaluating what LaFleur might prefer. Also think the Packers might prefer Ford as big mammoth RT that could just maul people. Williams has been getting a lot of crap over the last couple of weeks but he's a technique-sound guy who could probably play all over the line. Limited ceiling but probably a really high floor as well.

 

1-30 = Irv Smith Jr./TE/Alabama

The thing that worries me about this projection is that Gutekunst took three receivers last year and all three of those guys had height. Smith is short for a tight end (6-2 3/8). But the more I looked at the board, the more it was obvious that Hockenson and Fant are at one level, Smith is at the next level, and there is a huge, huge falloff in TE quality after Smith goes off the board. Reports are that Smith is a decent positional blocker and has excellent upside as a pass-catcher.

 

2-44 = Juan Thornhill/S/Virginia

If the Packers pass on safety at #30, and I'd guess they will because I don't think Smith makes it to #44, safety seems like the overwhelming favorite at this spot. And there are several that will be available. Johnathan Abram/Mississippi State will likely be gone, but frankly he's so much of a box safety that I'm not even convinced that the Packers would want him. Most think Taylor Rapp/Washington will be gone, but he ran so poorly in workouts that I'm guessing he slides and keeps sliding right past pick #44. I really think Thornhill, Chauncey Gardner-Johnson/Florida, Nasir Adderley/Delaware and Darnell Savage, Jr./Maryland are all possibilities. I ended up dismissing Gardner-Johnson due to the reports that he has significant issues playing on the back end, Adderley because it sounds like he might be better suited as a cornerback, and Savage because he has less than ideal size. But all the players in this group are pretty interested, and I wouldn't be disappointed if the Packers took any of them. If it is safety at #44, it will be very interesting to see which one Gutekunst selects.

 

3-75 = Germaine Pratt/ILB/North Carolina State

This is the pick I'd dislike because Pratt's bio is very similar to Oren Burks. Ex-safety that's bulked up to linebacker. Burks has more length and is a better athlete, but Pratt is more compact and does appear to be a stronger player. Nonetheless, Pratt ran a 4.57 40-yard dash at the combine and maybe could be the player the Packers hoped they were getting in Burks last year. I haven't totally written off Burks yet, but that was really ugly last year.

 

4-114 = Will Harris/S/Boston College

This is where I started looking really hard for a defensive lineman, but IMO all of the quality ones are already gone and there are nothing but projects left. As you can see, there is no defensive lineman selections in this projection which is a disappointment. I ended up going with another safety here as a best player pick. Harris has the ideal build for a safety, showed good speed at the combine (4.41 in the 40), has some toughness and is a smart guy and intelligent player.

 

4-118 = Ben Banogu/OLB/Texas Christian

This one might be a stretch in terms of availability. The compilation board I'm working off has him slotted at #123, McGinn is projecting him as a third round pick. Has good athletic ability and real pass-rush upside. Instincts are mediocre.

 

5-150 = Tyler Roemer/OT/San Diego State

This one could be a stretch in terms of character. Roemer was suspended from the team with another player for a violation of team rules, likely for failing drug test(s) but the reason was never made public. From what I could gather, it doesn't sound like he's a bad guy or has a Randy Gregory type problem. I've seen plenty of footage on Roemer and think he'd be a solid day two pick if not for the character concerns. I think he stands head and shoulders above the remaining offensive lineman at this point of the draft, and would guess that Gutekunst would gamble on him at this point if available.

 

6-185 = David Sills V/WR/West Virginia

Long, linear receiver that can create some matchup problems down the field but isn't the most physical guy. I seem some similar qualities between Sills and Abbrederis who, of course, couldn't cut it. 6-3 1/4, 4.57 40-yard time, 33 touchdown catches in his last two seasons at West Virginia. Seems like a reasonable guy to take in round 6.

 

6-194 = Ka'dar Hollman/CB/Toledo

Getting pretty thinned out at this point in the draft, so why not take a couple guys that Packers have been connected to and could win a roster spot? Hollman looked to be an undrafted player a couple weeks ago, but his stock has been on the rise more than some of the other "undrafted projections" that have visited Green Bay, so it's pretty reasonable that the Packers would use a pick on him here now that it appears he has a good chance of being drafted.

 

7-226 = Andrew Beck/TE/Texas

Another player that visited Green Bay. Was mostly an H-back at Texas, projects as a combo FB/TE in the NFL. Even after drafting Irv Smith early, the Packers could still use some help at TE and Danny Vitale is the only fullback on the roster (and is somewhat of a similar player to Beck). I wouldn't be a bit surprised if the Packers took FB-Alec Ingold/Wisconsin here, depending on if LaFleur thinks it's necessary to add a pure fullback to the roster. Fullback was pretty much a worthless position in McCarthy's offense.

[LouisEly]

As for Lindstrom and any other guy who projects at guard, the Packers MO has definitely not been to draft an interior OL on day 1, and you have to go back to Daryn Colledge to find a day 2 pick. Particularly with the money they invested in Turner, and with Madison coming back.

 

I would be really, really surprised if they go interior OL prior to the 3rd round, if not day 3.

[reillymcshane]

With the way things are shaping up, I wouldn't be surprised if Gutekunst throws a real curve ball at #12 and takes someone like OG-Cody Ford/Oklahoma. From the videos I've viewed on Tennessee's offense last year, it sure looked like they were a standard zone blocking team, and if that's the case someone like OG-Jonah Williams is probably a better fit. I didn't think there was any possibility of a guard at #12 when I got up this morning, but with the way things are shaking out, there is a pretty decent chance it will happen. I also wouldn't be shocked if they drafted Noah Fant at #12 either. I did a lot of looking at former Mike Pettine defenses, and while there have been some 6-0 LBs that have backed up, it seems like most of his starting linebackers have stood in the 6-3/6-2 area, which makes me think they won't take ILB-Devin Bush/Michigan even if he is available. But who knows for sure? Gutekunst only has a one-year track record and LaFleur has no track record as a head coach.

 

I'll do this projection today:

 

1-12 = Jonah Williams/OG/Alabama

Actually had penciled in OG-Cody Ford/Oklahoma at this spot and went back and changed it because Ford seems better suited for a power scheme and Williams seems better suited for a zone scheme. But that decision was largely based on YouTube videos and my amateur eye which could be completely wrong in evaluating what LaFleur might prefer. Also think the Packers might prefer Ford as big mammoth RT that could just maul people. Williams has been getting a lot of crap over the last couple of weeks but he's a technique-sound guy who could probably play all over the line. Limited ceiling but probably a really high floor as well.

 

1-30 = Irv Smith Jr./TE/Alabama

The thing that worries me about this projection is that Gutekunst took three receivers last year and all three of those guys had height. Smith is short for a tight end (6-2 3/8). But the more I looked at the board, the more it was obvious that Hockenson and Fant are at one level, Smith is at the next level, and there is a huge, huge falloff in TE quality after Smith goes off the board. Reports are that Smith is a decent positional blocker and has excellent upside as a pass-catcher.

 

I'd be happy with Williams. He could play guard or tackle - although tackle would be his long term position.

 

As for Smith - not enamored with him this high. I could see in the 2nd round, but not here. If Fant is around, he's a good pick, but I don't see him being available at #30. I'd like to get AJ Brown - or even Marquis Brown - with our #30 pick. I really like AJ Brown. But a decent WR could easily be available in the 2nd round.

[patrickgpe]

While I don’t think any of these players will be around at these picks, my A plus draft for the packers is

1a Oliver

1b Fant or Brown

2 Harry or I. Smith

 

I am ok if they go offensive line at 12, like some suggested or get a pass rusher like bruins at 12. I think the only disaster pick is metcalf at 12. Oliver is impossible to get a read on I’ve seen him between 3-14 today. The quality of this first pick will depend on how many teams reach for a web above 12. I will be celebrating each one that does. In my humble opinion there isn’t a single quarterback worthy of going in the top half of the 1st based on ability alone, with the possible exception of Murray (who has no business going first overall)

[lcbj68c]

I still think these are the big need areas and are spots that get filled with the first three picks: TE, OT, ILB, S, DE.

 

This! Which is why I'll be livid if it's interior defensive lineman like Oliver, Q. Williams, Rashan Gary, Christian Wilkins, etc.

 

Prob going to cost a ton, but I'd prefer they get a dynamic defender like Devin White. Absent that, just take the best OL available at #12 and hopefully Fant is there at 30.