2019 Green Bay Packers draft preview and predictions

[OnTheBlack]

 

Yes. Livid. I'm in the minority and I know it. I just feel that up the middle, I can deal with 3 Howard Greens and call it a day. At #12 or higher, I'd rather find a dynamic ILB, DE, OL, or TE, as the OP stated are needs. Again, I'm in the minority and that's okay. If they are going to move up to the point at which Oliver would be available...top 3 to 5 as has been mocked, I'd rather it not be for an interior DL who gets me 26 tackles and 1.5 sacks per season. Howard Green can do that.

 

 

 

This is ALMOST like saying you wouldn't mind having an an INF of Yuni Betencourt's because...hey, we had one before and the team overall was good and despite the fact that he was a bad player most of his career, he made that good play in the SB!!!!

 

NO! You cannot just pass on the foundation of your defense.

 

 

And I might be selling Yuni B short in this comp. I mean...at least Yuni had a couple of good years early in his career. That's more than we can say for Green. Glad he hit got his hand in the air when Big Ben was backed up to force that Collins pick,but that's about all he did of substance.

 

 

But...I guess you've said you know you're in the minority, so....I'd just suggest you look at the best defenses in the NFL. They almost ALWAYS had a deep front. in fact, we've seen teams win SB's BECAUSE of their deep DL. WE'd just be passing on the position group as a whole here. The Pats dynasty was built on a defensive mind set that centered around Vince Wolfork and guys like Richard Seymour(they still like those types of bodies, the long limbed, athletic DL). The Giants beat that historic Pats team with a dominant pass rush with,Osi, Tuck, Strahan. The Bears last year had Mack and Akeem Hicks as their DE's when they made a big jump. The Seahawks were able to rotate defensive linemen to just keep pressuring the passer. The Texans defense that is year in and year out elite has JJ Watt at defensive END in their scheme(along with DJ Reader playing the other DE spot).

 

I could go on, but...man, you just don't see many teams throw out 3 guys who are on the street half way through the season and be successful with them. The Rams were in the Super Bowl this year because they had Donald playing DE...and they probably should have had Such playing DE as well, but he sacrificed a little in the way of stats to play the nose and eat some blocks for the other guys.

 

 

By the way, just one more thing to point out...and I just totally missed it because of your "3 Howard Green" statements. But you realize that almost all the players we're talking about here are Defensive ENDS, right? Oliver is a DE in the NFL, Gary is a OLB'er/DE hybrid?

 

Very possible that given how talented they are, both Williams AND Wilkens end up playing at DE for the Packers as well(if there was a shot that Williams fell to us). I think you're confusing defensive ends with NT's. And there I disagree with you. The Packers defense was extremely reliane on Ryan Pickett for years at the nose....but I would understand more your opinion to just throw out a big body who can eat up blocks there....though I'd still disagree as I think having a guy like Clark who can collapse the pocket is an extrodinarly luxury and makes life easier for everyone else. But...what you're basically saying is that if the Packers took Nick Bosa, because he's a DE(and one that's not as athletic as Oliver or Gary) you'd be livid?

 

You have NT and then 2 ENDS. A guy who lines up on the guards outside shoulder and one who lines up on the tackles. Those are your defensive ends and the exact guys we're talking about. Kenny Clark is well established as our NT and he's probably 1st up when they start dolling out extensions and he's likely to get a big one. Just gonna guess, but I'd say 4 years 55 million with 30+ guaranteed. And he's worth every penny. He's the player you build your 3-4 around(which is why we drafted Raji desite the fact that TT had Crabtree rated as the best player in that particular draft, you NEED that 0 technique to clog things up.

 

Although Pettine is a bit different. He likes his linemen to get penetration more...and that's nobody in his draft better at that as a 5 than Ed Oliver IMO.

 

 

So long story short, you say DE is a position of need and that's what you want drafted, but then say you'd be livid if we drafted some freakishly talented ones. I don't really understand that.

 

No. I don't want a pure 0-technique NT as a high first round pick in any given year. DE, absolutely. If the plan is to transition a smaller, athletic interior DL to DE or ILB, then great! Come on over! Kenny Clark (27th?), Ryan Pickett (drafted 30th by St. Louis?), are all great players and I was not livid to have them or pick them near the end of the first round. I'm just of the opinion that in a 3-4, I'd rather have two dynamic, fly to the ball ILB on my team than picking a 0-tech DT at #12 (or worse! = move up to take one) when we have a mighty fine DT in Kenny Clark already.

 

 

The only guy in the discussion that was a 0 technique was Wilkins and he can also play DE. The rest of the guys you listed where OLB'ers and DE's.

[nodakfan17]

Falcons Packers really went high on Lindstrom Gary. Oh well, if you like someone, what the heck.

Fixed that for you...

Gary seemed to be going in the 7-10 range last week in some mocks, so from that perspective maybe I shouldn’t be that disappointed.

[CheezWizHed]

Dolphin's pick Wilkins just executed the best shoulder-bump-bear-hug celebration with Goodall that I've ever seen. I think Goodall just soiled his pants trying to figure out what was about to happen.

[xisxisxis]

walterfootball.com live draft grade:

 

Green Bay Packers: Rashan Gary, DE/DT, Michigan D Grade

I can't really get behind this pick. Rashan Gary is insanely athletic and physically talented, but he was a huge disappointment as a player in Michigan. He also has some off-the-field concerns. There was speculation that Gary would fall to the 20s, which would've been a reasonable spot to select him. Not here, though. This is a major reach. If Gary couldn't produce in college, why would that suddenly happen when he has an NFL contract?

 

Read more at http://walterfootball.com/nfldraftgrades.php#VSlHCiGUjWAh0wht.99

 

Edit: And piling on:

 

Miami Dolphins: Christian Wilkins, DT, Clemson A- Grade

The Rashan Gary and Christian Wilkins selections are just one spot apart, yet they couldn't be more radically different. The Packers took a guy who was a major slacker in college, whereas the Dolphins just picked a high-character player who was a team captain at his school. Oh, and Wilkins was pretty damn good as well! This is a great pick that must be in the "A" range, as Wilkins will be able to replace Ndamukong Suh's production. The only reason this isn't an A+ or an "A" is because I felt as though the Dolphins had so many needs that they had to trade down. Still, I'm a fan of this move.

 

Read more: http://walterfootball.com/nfldraftgrades.php#ixzz5mAA9QZAw

Edited April 26, 2019 by xisxisxis

[patrickgpe]

I would have drafted Wilkins. I don’t hate the pick, but his lack of production scares me. Most of the players I targeted were gone, so I would have preferred to trade down. Hopefully Pettine can light a fire under his read end.

[reillymcshane]

Falcons Packers really went high on Lindstrom Gary. Oh well, if you like someone, what the heck.

Fixed that for you...

Gary was coming up in a lot of top 10 mocks - although he was in the mid/lower parts of the 1st round in others. So I don't see him as being a reach. He's not my favorite pick, but I can see the value.

 

Lindstrom on the other hand, was generally being mocked in the latter 1/3 of the 1st round.

[nodakfan17]

On the bright side, the Packers will probably go into the season with Kyler Fackrell as their 4th best pass rusher instead of their top pass rusher.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Gary has a large enough frame that he could easily be a 3-4 DE, particularly if he lines up next to one of the Smiths as an edge rushing OLB - given the Packers' offseason OLB signings, I'd guess Gary winds up just maintaining his weight right where it is. Daniels, Clark, and Gary as the 3 base DL is interesting with Smiths bookending them.

[JosephC]

But ... another large school DE that the Packers will convert to OLB. Where have I heard this before?

 

Who are you talking about? Clay Matthews? I hope not. Matthews was listed on USCs roster at 230 pounds as a senior and was 240 at the combine.

[nodakfan17]

I would have drafted Wilkins. I don’t hate the pick, but his lack of production scares me. Most of the players I targeted were gone, so I would have preferred to trade down. Hopefully Pettine can light a fire under his read end.

If we’re going on the record, I would have taken Jawaan Taylor.

[CheezWizHed]

I'm guessing Fant to the Vikings.

[OnTheBlack]

 

The ONLY thing I'd disagree with here is that there's no QB worthy of going in the top 16, but there isn't one that is good enough for US to draft in the top 16. Rodgers is all in and wants to play into his 40's. He's not jerking us around like Favre was. I wouldn't hate to see them take Lock or Jones at 30. You get him for 5 years pretty cheap then and hopefully he develops into a good backup. But since Rodgers, QB's don't fall down draft boards the same, so I think it's more likely that 4 will be gone in the top half than one of those two drops to us.

 

.

I'll stand by that statement. QB's are so overvalued at this time of the year because if you don't have one you have no chance to win. So teams reach and grab one when there are players there that have a much better chance to contribute.

 

I did look at Matt Miller's big board and there isn't a QB in the top 12 and only 2 in the top 32.

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2832566-matt-millers-final-2019-nfl-draft-big-board#slide1

 

I will agree that there is no QB for the packers. the only thing that would make sense to me is getting rosen for a 2, but i doubt that will happen.

 

 

I think we're talking semantics. If a QB has a 89 grade and there are Tackles or LB'ers with a 91 grade, you add a few points because of how important it is to have that QB.

 

Murray was obvious, Daniel Jones was NOT, but Haskins seemed to me like a lock. I kinda feel bad for the kid going to such a terrible situation. He's a prototypical QB that checks ever box except he's not a running QB, but that shouldn't be a priority.

[LouisEly]

Dolphin's pick Wilkins just executed the best shoulder-bump-bear-hug celebration with Goodall that I've ever seen. I think Goodall just soiled his pants trying to figure out what was about to happen.

That's why I wanted him.

[FVBrewerFan]

Gary has a large enough frame that he could easily be a 3-4 DE, particularly if he lines up next to one of the Smiths as an edge rushing OLB - given the Packers' offseason OLB signings, I'd guess Gary winds up just maintaining his weight right where it is. Daniels, Clark, and Gary as the 3 base DL is interesting with Smiths bookending them.

 

Packers saying he will start his career in the OLB room.

[HarveysWBs]

On the bright side, the Packers will probably go into the season with Kyler Fackrell as their 4th best pass rusher instead of their top pass rusher.

 

And Gary might be their third-best. That thought at first was comforting, as in, maybe he doesn’t have to be a stud right now and he can learn from Pettine and the Smiths.

 

Then I think, “Wait, this guy is a #12 pick. Shouldn’t he be a stud right now???” Gary has a lot to prove, and Gutekunst, who was always going to be graded on the next three years anyway, has raised the stakes on his tenure. This pick seems like a huge risk.

[nodakfan17]

I'm guessing Fant to the Vikings.

Yeah, that feels about right given how this night has gone thus far.

[JosephC]

I'm kind of rooting for the Packers to trade up now and grab Simmons, if for nothing else to watch the media lose their collective mind.

[nodakfan17]

Gary has a large enough frame that he could easily be a 3-4 DE, particularly if he lines up next to one of the Smiths as an edge rushing OLB - given the Packers' offseason OLB signings, I'd guess Gary winds up just maintaining his weight right where it is. Daniels, Clark, and Gary as the 3 base DL is interesting with Smiths bookending them.

 

Packers saying he will start his career in the OLB room.

I would be more confident if they said he was an OLB. That statement seems to imply they’re not 100% sure where he fits.

[reillymcshane]

I'm guessing Fant to the Vikings.

Yeah, that feels about right given how this night has gone thus far.

I'm saying OL for the Vikings. Taylor, Dillard or Ford.

[reillymcshane]

I'm kind of rooting for the Packers to trade up now and grab Simmons, if for nothing else to watch the media lose their collective mind.

No, we'll take DK Metcalf and we'll all poop our pants.

[LouisEly]

Gary has a large enough frame that he could easily be a 3-4 DE, particularly if he lines up next to one of the Smiths as an edge rushing OLB - given the Packers' offseason OLB signings, I'd guess Gary winds up just maintaining his weight right where it is. Daniels, Clark, and Gary as the 3 base DL is interesting with Smiths bookending them.

When your 4th best pass rusher had 10.5 sacks last year, you've got a pretty darned good pass rush.

[OnTheBlack]

I don’t like it. Damaged goods. No real position (like Datone Jones). I won’t pretend to know more than Gutekunst and Co., but this one has me puzzled.

 

 

He's not damaged goods and he's ABSOLUTELY nothing like Dahtone Jones. He's so much more athletically gifted, it's not even funny.

 

If he lives up to his potential, he's a all pro pass rusher, a Mack type of talent. He has as much upside as anyone in the draft.

 

I don't like that he hasn't done it in the NFL yet though. Of course when Sweat was the same age, he was moving from Michigan to Mississippi...

 

The Packers better have some reason to believe that his motor and his technique is better than what he showed in his college career. This seems like a BIG time boom or bust type pick.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

But ... another large school DE that the Packers will convert to OLB. Where have I heard this before?

 

Who are you talking about? Clay Matthews? I hope not. Matthews was listed on USCs roster at 230 pounds as a senior and was 240 at the combine.

 

One Nicholas Perry

[OnTheBlack]

Gary has a large enough frame that he could easily be a 3-4 DE, particularly if he lines up next to one of the Smiths as an edge rushing OLB - given the Packers' offseason OLB signings, I'd guess Gary winds up just maintaining his weight right where it is. Daniels, Clark, and Gary as the 3 base DL is interesting with Smiths bookending them.

When your 4th best pass rusher had 10.5 sacks last year, you've got a pretty darned good pass rush.

 

 

Not when almost none of those sacks were the result of him actually beating his guy and they came in bunches as he cleaned up other guys pass rushes.

 

A "win" is considered beating your guy in 2.5 seconds. Fackrell almost NEVER did that last year. And I think it's just as likely he won't get another 10 sacks in the rest of his career than he ever gets 5-6 sacks in a season again, much less 10.

[nodakfan17]

But ... another large school DE that the Packers will convert to OLB. Where have I heard this before?

 

Who are you talking about? Clay Matthews? I hope not. Matthews was listed on USCs roster at 230 pounds as a senior and was 240 at the combine.

 

One Nicholas Perry

Former 2nd round pick Mike Neal also comes to mind, though the conversion didn’t happen until he proved disappointing at DE.