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2019 Green Bay Packers draft preview and predictions


LouisEly
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This is going to be an interesting draft. Will Gutes continue TT’s tendencies (valuing triangle numbers over football intelligence) or carve a different path?

 

I think the first pick is going to generate some discussion...

 

1st (#12): Christian Wilkins, DT, Clemson – Disruptive interior presence with positional versatility, Wilkins owned Alabama’s OL in the national championship game. Has short area quickness and agility like a linebacker and he’s very active in pass rush, allowing him to be a true three-down DL. On top of that Wilkins has elite intelligence, leadership, and character, having graduated in just 2.5 years. The Packers need leadership, especially with Mike Daniels set to become a free agent after 2019, and Wilkins has the leadership and personality to be a face of the franchise type. His upside is higher than many think, and he also has perhaps the highest floor of anyone in the draft. The Packers haven’t shown much willingness to extend guys past 30 (Rodgers the obvious exception), and Daniels will be 30 next year. (Replaces Muhammad Wilkerson)

If he’s still available: Montez Sweat, Edge, Mississippi State – Sweat displayed his elite athleticism at the combine after displaying his pass rushing skills at the Senior Bowl. Sweat gets comped to Danielle Hunter due to his long frame and athleticism. He would have been long gone by this time if it were not for the heart condition he was diagnosed with. With pass rushing a premium, he may be too talented to pass up here.

Don’t be surprised if it’s: Devin White, ILB, LSU – Former running back who is still learning the position, White has play speed that just can’t be taught. His work ethic and competitiveness are off the charts, as is his ability to close. Scary to think he could get better with even more experience, White could be an All-Pro caliber LB for a long time. Pairing White with Martinez would give the Packers the best ILB pair in the NFL, and Martinez will be a FA after the season.

 

1st (#30): Dalton Risner, OT, Kansas State – a 2nd-team AP All-American, Risner gets comps to Bryan Bulaga and was PFF’s 2nd highest graded OT behind only Cole Van Lanen… and slightly ahead of Jonah Williams. He has more than enough pass blocking ability, as he won almost every battle when he squared off against Montez Sweat; Sweat got a sack, but only because their QB left the pocket and moved towards Sweat who Risner was running up the field. Risner is a mauler in the run game as well, has long arms and vice-like grip with his hands, has light feet and good lateral quickness, and his floor is a nasty Pro Bowl caliber guard. (Replaces Alex Light)

If he’s still available: T.J. Hockenson, TE, Iowa – I don’t think that Hockenson will go as high as some think. He’s a good athlete, not elite like Fant, but he’s an elite blocking and a true complete TE. Also an excellent route runner with a nose for finding the seam, he can adequately stretch the field. Hockenson could be a target if the Packers trade down from #12 to the late teens/early 20's.

Don’t be surprised if it’s: Noah Fant, TE, Iowa – one of the best pure athletes at TE in years, Fant has wide receiver speed and acceleration in a 6’4”, 250 lb body that can create matchup problems all over the field. His initial burst easily creates separation, and he’s a weapon in the red zone averaging one TD every four catches. Considering the lousy QBs and offensive scheme he was in at Iowa, putting him in a legitimate passing offense with an All-Pro QB could create one of the most lethal offensive weapons in the game.

 

2nd: N’Keal Harry, WR, Arizona State – eerily similar to Davante Adams, not only in size, play style, competitiveness, and alpha swagger, he also had almost identical combine numbers as Adams. Like Adams, Harry’s signatures are owning the back-shoulder throw and contested catch opportunities. Harry also relishes run blocking and has excellent play strength, having put up 28 reps on the bench at the combine; teams are going to have a really hard time jamming him at the line. There are questions about his ability to separate, but this is the NFL – nobody gets separation. It’s all about the ability to use your body for route leverage and having strong hands, and Harry excels at that just like Adams. Gutes personally attended ASU’s pro day, and I don’t think it was to watch Rennell Wren. (Replaces Randall Cobb/Trevor Davis)

If he’s still available: A.J. Brown, WR, Ole Miss – excellent route runner and super productive slot bully whose low center of gravity allows him to change directions on a dime. Big, strong hands, shields defenders from the ball with his body, and a more than willing blocker in the run game. Has the size to run plays out of the backfield like the Packers did with Cobb.

Don’t be surprised if it’s: Kaleb McGary, OT, Washington – three year starter at RT who came to Washington as a TE, for a guy as tall as he is he showed very good athleticism and change of direction at the combine. Diagnosed with a heart arrythmia, and his father with MS, he’s a bit of a medical concern but he’s as mentally tough and resilient as they come. Packers brought him in for a visit, but they usually do that for guys who are backup plans for the guys they want so he may be their 2nd choice.

 

3rd: Taylor Rapp, S, Washington – true junior and three-year starter who coaches have said is the smartest football player they’ve ever been around, and if there is anything the Packers need at safety it is football intelligence. Super active with positional versatility, he was used all over the field from free safety to nickel corner to linebacker hybrid but is best in the box to maximize his strengths in short-area quickness, run support, and open field tackling and minimize his weakness in long speed. Rapp has elite leadership and character, and pairing Rapp with Wilkins will provide much needed leadership, especially should they let Daniels leave. While his 40 time at their pro day left a little to be desired, he had some of the top 3-cone and short shuttle times at the combine. Vontaze Burfict ran a 5.00 at the combine, and he’s been a 7-year starter in the league. Intelligence and play recognition trumps long speed in the box. (Replaces Kentrell Brice)

If he’s still available: Amani Hooker, S, Iowa – with Amos in the fold the need is more for a hybrid/big nickel safety and Hooker fits that bill. He has an excellent feel for the play and quickly recognizes where the ball is going. His height and short arms could make him a liability for TE coverage, but he’s a very smart football player with great instincts and awareness, just what the Packers need.

Don’t be surprised if it’s: Isaiah Johnson, CB, Houston – Johnson played WR his first two years at Houston before switching to CB, so he’s fairly raw and that shows in the consistency of his play. But he has big upside as he’s an imposing 6’2”, 208, and ran a 4.40 40 at the combine with top-6 3-cone and short shuttle times. He’s going to have some growing pains early on, but you can’t teach those triangle numbers and with some coaching and patience he could be a very disruptive press corner with the speed to chase. Weak year for corners which may push him up.

 

4th (own): Jace Sternberger, TE, Texas A&M – excellent route runner and ball skills, Sternberger is a great receiving TE who put up big production for the Aggies. Keeps the same energy in and out of breaks and has the ability to get open on the 2nd and 3rd level. Not a great blocker, but a willing blocker who will put in the effort. (Replaces Lance Kendricks)

If he’s still available: Justin Hollins, OLB, Oregon – a bit of a poor-man’s Montez Sweat, Hollins has length (6’5”) and athleticism (4.50 40) as well as versatile production (14.5 TFL, 6.5 sacks, 7 pass breakups). What Hollins excels at perhaps the most is generating turnovers – he was 2nd in the nation with five forced fumbles and is known for going for the football and mastering the strip sack. Going into the season Jelks was the bigger name at Oregon, but Hollins far outplayed him.

If they haven’t drafted a tackle yet: Chuma Edoga, OT, USC – naturally gifted athlete with great foot quickness, Edoga can fire out of his stance and get in position as fast as anyone. A little unorthodox in his technique, but always seems to get the job done. A little small – which was the same knock on Bakhtiari coming out – but has very long arms which can allow him to stay at tackle and is very smart and understands what he needs to do to get the job done.

 

4th (Redskins): Blake Cashman, ILB, Minnesota – Cashman answered any questions about his athletic ability at the combine after running a 4.50 40 and posting top 3-cone and short shuttle times. Former walk on who lives for football on the field and in the film room, he was super productive (104 tackles, 15 TFL) but his short arms may limit his ability to cover taller TEs and make him subject to good stiff-arms. The last athletic ILB they drafted in the 4th round named Blake worked out really well. (Replaces Jake Ryan/Antonio Morrison)

If he’s still available: Dru Samia, G/T, Oklahoma – vocal leader more than full of aggression and attitude, Samia has a big level of nastiness to his game. Athletic, and experienced at RT, he could be the next Braden Smith who played inside in college but moves out to RT. The Packers could use some of his attitude on the field.

Don’t be surprised if it’s: Stanley Morgan, Jr., WR, Nebraska – super productive WR despite mediocre at best QBs throwing to him, Morgan is a complete WR. He put up some of the top 3-cone and short shuttle times at the combine and could be a great slot WR. Professional, excellent route runner, with kick and punt return experience, he could be a great replacement for Cobb without having to spend a day one or two pick.

 

5th: Malik Carney, OLB, North Carolina – at first glance his production (6 sacks, 12 TFL, 60 tackles) seems nothing special, but then realize he did that in only eight games. Suspended for four games due to selling shoes (sound familiar?), Carney also in only eight games finished second in the nation in forced fumbles with five and rakes at the ball like he’s starting a lawnmower. (Replaces Nick Perry)

If he’s still available: Josh Oliver, TE, San Jose St. - excellent route runner who used a fully-formed route tree, Oliver has huge hands (10 3/4") and plus ball skills. Showed above average athleticism at the combine, running a 4.63 40, but had average 3-cone and short shuttle times. Not a good blocker, but a willing blocker.

Don’t be surprised if it’s: Armon Watts, DT, Arkansas – ideal five technique who despite playing for the worst team in the SEC still put up impressive numbers for a DT in the SEC accounting for 7 sacks, 8.5 TFL, and three forced fumbles. Watts excels at anchoring against double teams and defeating single blocks and was impressive in practice at the Shrine game and in their game against Alabama.

 

6th (own): Darrin Hall, RB, Pittsburgh – spent most of his career behind Qadree Ollison and James Connor but is by far the most athletic of the three and when Ollison went down he shined. A classic one-cut runner, Hall averaged 7.5 yards per carry last year racking up over 1000 yards. He blew up his pro day, running a 4.42 40 and a 3-cone time that would have been best at the combine. (Replaces 3rd string RB revolving door)

If he’s still available: Ryan Connelly, ILB, Wisconsin – instinctive LB with an ability to diagnose plays and shoot the gap resulting in a TFL, as almost 12% of his tackles in his career were for losses. Good in zone coverage, Connelly can be an excellent special teamer while being a solid backup if not adequate starter.

Don’t be surprised if it’s: Donovan Wilson, S, Texas A&M – hard hitting safety who is also a team leader off and on the field. Smart, picked up a complicated defense quickly, helped get his team lined up on the field, and has long arms and adequate athleticism. Won’t turn down the chance to lay the lumber, but it cost him a few targeting penalties in the process.

 

6th (from Seattle): Nick Scott, S, Penn State – Scott came to Penn State as a RB, but stuck behind Saquan Barkley and Miles Sanders they needed a way to get his athleticism on the field. He switched to CB as a sophomore before moving to safety as a junior. Still learning the position, Scott has excellent athleticism and showed it at their pro day running a 4.43 40 with a 41” vertical. He had good production as a senior notching three interceptions. With experience returning kicks, Scott can be a special teams ace while learning the safety position. (Replaces Greene/Campbell/Pleasant)

If he’s still available: Devine Ozigbo, RB, Nebraska – finally put it all together as a senior, rushing for over 1000 yards and an impressive 7 yards per carry. Big, bruising back who keeps a low pad level, he also can hold his own in the passing game, having caught 39 passes between his junior and senior year.

Don’t be surprised if it’s: Kyle Shurmur, QB, Vanderbilt – doesn’t have elite arm strength, but he’s a very smart QB who can make rhythm throws in a west coast offense and has the accuracy to fit the ball into tight windows on short and medium throws. Put up a very respectable 50 TDs vs 16 INTs over his two years as a starter against tough SEC defenses. He may not be good enough to single-handedly win games, but he is smart and effective enough to not lose them. Son of NFL coach Pat Shurmur, and it shows.

 

7th: Jordan Kunaszyk, ILB, Cal – not only was he a tackling machine having made 143 this past year, he also was a turnover machine generating six forced fumbles and three interceptions over his junior and senior year. With Martinez a FA after next season, I wouldn’t be surprised if GB double-dips at ILB with a late pick. (Competes with James Crawford for roster spot)

If he’s still available: Gardner Minshew, QB, Washington State – the Packers need a backup QB who can pass, and that’s what he can do. The “athletes who can’t pass” haven’t been cutting it. Not elite arm strength, but he works through his progressions very quickly and gives safeties very little time to react. Could have great moustache contests with Rodgers.

Don’t be surprised if it’s: Ka'Dar Hollman, CB, Toledo – three year starter with desired size (6'0", 190) at corner, Hollman supposedly ran a sub-4.40 at Toledo's pro day. PFF has Hollman allowing a completion % of only 42% and a passer rating of 70. Average ball skills, having only two interceptions in 39 career games, but the Packers will take flyers late on guys with ideal triangle numbers.

 

 

UDFAs (* indicates priority or possible late round pick):

Eric Dungy, QB, Syracuse

Darmarea Crockett, RB, Missouri*

Johnathan Thomas, RB, Penn State

James O’Hagan, C, Buffalo

Wes Martin, G, Indiana*

Cody Conway, OT, Syracuse

Jeff Smith, WR, Boston College*

Andrew Beck, TE, Texas*

 

Curtis Bolton, S/LB, Oklahoma

Micah Abernathy, S, Tennessee*

Ryan Bee, DE, Marshall

Cole Holcomb, ILB, North Carolina*

C.J. Moore, CB, Mississippi*

Rodney Randle, CB, Lamar*

Randy Ramsey, OLB, Arkansas

Jordan Thompson, DT, Northwestern

Spenser Thompson-Meyers, K, St. Norbert

 

My thoughts on a few guys who have been prominently mentioned:

 

Jonathan Abram, S, Miss St – He’s a good big nickel/LB hybrid, but poor in coverage. Doesn’t have anticipation or ball skills and gets caught looking in the backfield. Got burned horribly in their bowl game. I think he’s Josh Jones 2.0.

 

Nasir Adderly, S, Delaware – some teams are excited about him because they think he has the length and skills to move to corner, but his safety play was inconsistent at best – not good recognition and response. We’ve seen how well the transition from safety to corner can go.

 

Jonah Williams, OT, Alabama – good player, but I just can’t see using the #12 overall pick on a RT. Maybe if they trade down to the late teens/early 20’s.

Edited by LouisEly
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Brewer Fanatic Contributor

Nice write-up as always.

 

Right now, my #12 preference is DT Oliver. I've seen him get mocked anywhere from top 5 to #20. Are you assuming he is there when we pick or not?

Also, I've seen White get penciled in heavily at #5 with TB.

 

I do agree with your take on Hockenson though. Seems like he is going to drop into the last 10 picks of round 1. Fant has been mocked to go in the single digits at a few places I've seen. But I have my doubts he will go that high.

 

If Oliver or Sweat isn't there at #12, I think I'd prefer to trade backwards. If the player isn't going to be "special" might as well get more bites of the apple.

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Oliver destroyed his pro day. Ran a 4.73 and his 3-cone time of 7.15 was the same as what Josh Allen did at the combine and would have been top 10 for running backs at the combine. He looked like a LB in drills, and some teams actually have him as either a DL or a LB and think that if he got down to 265 or less would be a ridiculous OLB in a 3-4.

 

I don't see Oliver getting past the Lions at #8, or the Bills at #9, especially considering that they have Rodgers and Brady in their respective divisions.

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Nice job, as always.

 

The #12 pick is very hard for me to get a handle on. As I posted in the other thread, with the expected run on QB's in the first half of the first round, the packers SHOULD get a way better player than we expected at 12. I would love Wilkins, Sweat, Bush, Ferrell, White, Oliver at that pick. With the last 2 probably gone, but I would pounce on if they are around.

 

I do hope that they use atleast one of these 1st round picks on offense and I have solely focused on Brown, Hockenson, or Fant at 30.

 

I hope you are right on Hockenson, I can't say I have a solid opinion on which Iowa TE will be the better pro.

 

Before free agency I would have hoped that the Packers load up on defense but now they don't have to. There seems to be great value on defense in the upper half of the 1st round. For all of the reasons described above, I have fully changed my mind on trading up. I think they can get 2 good players by keeping these picks.

 

EDIT: I do love the Harry pick at 2, if the packers go defense - TE in the 1st, and got Harry in the 2nd. I would be very pleased.

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I always hope for QB's drafted ahead of us but that hasn't always worked out and may not this year. The Cards could move Rosen before the draft taking out one team and Miami would be smart to take their chances and wait and see who falls. Giants reportedly don't like Haskins. Still some teams that need QB's up there but I could see only 2 going before us. It does seem like Oliver will be gone now, Sweat may be the D guy who drops who will be tough to pass on.
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Of course, right after I publish this the Packers bring in a couple of guys I had been looking at but didn't make the final cut. DT Trysten Hill had a really good combine and I wanted to squeeze him into one of their 4th round spots but went with Samia. Had I known that Madison reported I may have taken Samia out and put Hill in. DT is so deep this year that a good player will slip into round 3 or 4 and if so I wouldn't be surprised to see the Packers grab one there even if they go DT at #12.

 

They also brought in Tulane CB Donnie Lewis. I was looking at him before the Shrine game, but he got hurt in the Shrine game practices and fell off the radar. Lewis was tied for 4th in the nation in passes defensed and has good size at a listed 6'0", 195. I don't think the Packers draft a CB this year, but I think they bring in a couple of priority UDFAs. Randle is a smaller guy (5'10", 186) but ran a 4.28 with a 41" vertical at his pro day. Moore missed most of the year with injury but was a starter last year as a junior, has decent size (5'11", 196) and ran a 4.41 with a 37" vertical on their pro day.

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I must have browsed 8 mocks yesterday and maybe 2? Had #12 the same? That's iirc.

 

Im not sure what that means. Part of me thinks well so deep with options @12 theyll trade down. But now part of me wonders trading up from 30 as so many chances a stud is there to get that was top 10 but fell to 17/18 availability.

 

Sweat for example.

 

I will say i think 2 of the mocks were jokes more in line with their draft board and not a true mock. Kyler Murray in those two was 1st QB drafted in the teens.

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Just pointing this out...the Packers have jack behind Rodgers, and he is the same age Favre was when they drafted him...

 

The fact that there have been multiple stories now propping up Tim Boyle as the predicted backup and Rodgers heir apparent is ... scary. It wouldn't surprise me at all to see them spend a high-ish pick on a QB. Or even deal for one. If the Cardinals would take a #3 and #5 for Rosen, I'd seriously think about that.

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That's pretty ordinary fodder. They've done that over the years with so many guys. Craig Nall, there was a lot of buzz around Ingle Martin taking over Rodgers's spot in the hierarchy back in the day. It's all just coach speak to me. I think it's more likely they know if Rodgers gets hurt they are toast anyway so they didn't want to spend a lot on a vet.

 

I was just putting it out there though. If they adore a guy I wouldn't be surprised if a R1-3 pick is a QB.

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Man, I loved Craig Nall. There's a blast from the past.
"This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.
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Lol. They go into detail in Gunslinger. Some of it seemed like normal hazing (making Rodgers and others unknowingly sign his own helmet, then when he realized it, having to practice in an autographed helmet). Some of it seemed cruel and not very funny. Circulating rumors he was gay, and having a pretty distasteful shirt made and passed around a QB meeting. I wouldn't have liked Brett Favre a whole lot either.
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Lol. They go into detail in Gunslinger. Some of it seemed like normal hazing (making Rodgers and others unknowingly sign his own helmet, then when he realized it, having to practice in an autographed helmet). Some of it seemed cruel and not very funny. Circulating rumors he was gay, and having a pretty distasteful shirt made and passed around a QB meeting. I wouldn't have liked Brett Favre a whole lot either.

 

I have wanted to read that book but haven't gotten around to it. Yeah, Favre was definitely not nice to him. Took out his anger for Ted Thompson on Rodgers. Very childish and wasn't a good look for Brett. Brett was the alpha male around Green Bay (or at least he thinks he was) and Aaron being overly sensitive was a perfect target for stuff like that. I'm sure both regret how they behaved during the entire process. It is nice to see that both have grown up a bit and seem to have a pretty solid relationship now.

"This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.
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It's a great book. One of my favorite excerpts about that whole dynamic was from a reporter named Dylan Tomlinson. He had covered GB for a long time and personally could not stand Favre. All the worship that was published for years made him sick, but he never had the reason to publish the stories of Favre's drunkenness and debauchery around GB. He did a feature on Rodgers after he was drafted and loved him. He thought he was far more intelligent, open and and genuine. Eventually the topic of Favre came up and he'd asked Rodgers what he expected. Rodgers told him he hadn't heard from him, and had no idea what to expect. He asked Tomlinson what he thought, and he just said "Honestly, with how insecure he is, I think he's going to give you a ton of ****."

 

At the end of the season, as they were packing up lockers, Rodgers found him and just said "Everything you told me about Brett was 100% right."

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The packers have drafted only two QBs since doubling up on Matt Flynn and Brian Brohm in 2008: Brett Hundley and B.J. Coleman. That is pretty dang poor.

 

Probably about what to expect generally with drafting. QB is hard to do, especially later on. It's much easier to find a serviceable 5th round OG than a QB.

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Brewer Fanatic Contributor
The packers have drafted only two QBs since doubling up on Matt Flynn and Brian Brohm in 2008: Brett Hundley and B.J. Coleman. That is pretty dang poor.

 

Probably about what to expect generally with drafting. QB is hard to do, especially later on. It's much easier to find a serviceable 5th round OG than a QB.

 

That was one of the biggest differences between Thompson's and Wolf's tenures, though. Wolf regularly went back to the late-round QB well, even though the team regularly had depth there, and obviously with an iron man at QB1, it wasn't needed. Obviously some of those guys were misses (remember Kyle Wachholz LOL), but he was in turn able to deal many of those guys off for good value a few years later. Thompson didn't follow that philosophy at all, and that was disappointing.

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Hundley gave them reason to believe he could play. He got a lot of praise, was a good college player, and had some good preseasons. McCarthy probably had some arrogance as a QB master too. I think Hundley just wound up as a player who couldn't put it together consistently when the bright lights were on.

 

Plus, one thing kind of forgotten is that Hundley was basically rolling with the same team Rodgers had last year. He couldn't will them to wins, so it puts Hundley's year in perspective a little bit.

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Hundley gave them reason to believe he could play. He got a lot of praise, was a good college player, and had some good preseasons. McCarthy probably had some arrogance as a QB master too. I think Hundley just wound up as a player who couldn't put it together consistently when the bright lights were on.

 

Plus, one thing kind of forgotten is that Hundley was basically rolling with the same team Rodgers had last year. He couldn't will them to wins, so it puts Hundley's year in perspective a little bit.

 

Hundley definitely has talent. His issue, I think, is that he just didn't seem to improve any over the years. He did do some good things in 2017, and if given more to work with, I think he could be functional as a game manager-type starter.

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Never seemed like Hundley had a good enough arm nor accuracy to be an NFL QB. Those are two pretty large things that are hard to make up for.
"This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.
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I actually don't think his problem was arm-related at all. He graded out pretty well in both. His big flaw was he had some of the worst pocket presence I've ever seen. He would start scrambling with guys still 10 feet away, which in the NFL isn't possible to be effective while doing unless you're Aaron Rodgers. You have to be able to stand in and get rid of a pass with every millisecond of protection you have. He was incredibly skittish as a starter and would bolt when he saw anybody even starting to break through his protection. This is a lofty standard but always one of the reasons I've loved watching him play - Tom Brady. Next time you see a Pats game, watch how late some of his throws are made. He will stand there and complete his whole motion with guys inches away from him and sometimes just take absolute shots on his release. He knows he can't run away, so he uses every little second he gets.
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Hundley had no accuracy past 10 yards either. Maybe that was footwork instead of arm, but it was a major issue.

 

So any 4-5 round QBs of interest? Drafting another QB (and the Favre/Rodgers timing) crossed my mind also. Granted, that was precipitated by a huge fall by Rodgers. maybe someone falls in our lap at #30?

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