Ronald Acuna signs extension 8 years $100mil

[MrTPlush]

Please don't tell me "you are lying" in regard to that, I'm well aware of my own mental state and how I would handle complete financial freedom.

 

Then don’t mis-quote me and don’t apply your life to Acuna’s life

 

I’d say you are in a pretty small minority if you won’t be bummed losing out on $100mil+. Just saying for almost anyone that is going to give them some regret or bum them out to some extent.

 

But regardless that doesn’t change the fact whether it ends up a horrible financial decision or not. Because end of the the day losing out on millions is bad. Whether that bothers Acuña may be irrelevant, but no one really knows that.

 

Though I will say many are assuming Acuña will be a superstar...which maaay or may not happen. I wouldn’t say his stats last were that elite. He is a corner OFer so a ~.900 OPS is really friggen good....but hardly generational. If he just keeps repeating ~2018 it probably isn’t that terrible of a deal regardless for him. Now if he gets even better...yah probably pretty bad financial move.

[TURBO]

geez.

[xisxisxis]

I’d say you are in a pretty small minority if you won’t be bummed losing out on $100mil+. Just saying for almost anyone that is going to give them some regret or bum them out to some extent.

If a person isn't happy with $100M they won't be happy with $300M...

[Fear The Chorizo]

For those of you who think this is a bad deal, a question for you:

 

Would you rather have a 100% chance at 100 million dollars, or a 60% chance at 300 million?

 

Ronald Acuna and his family are set up for life. It's not always "what can I do to maximize my lifetime net worth." Sometimes it's just "how can I get the rest of my life figured out, remove the uncertainty and stress and be happy."

 

By the math, a 60 percent chance at $300 million is worth $180 million.

 

I can see why someone would sign the deal. But it's still worth much less than he could earn taking the other route. The Braves are delighted to do this.

 

Yes, but in reality it's a 60 percent chance at 300 mil in 5 years, or a 40 percent chance of a total way, way lower than 100 million...plus taking that gamble means he would make substantially less than what he will earn now for the next 3-4 seasons

[JimH5]

For those of you who think this is a bad deal, a question for you:

 

Would you rather have a 100% chance at 100 million dollars, or a 60% chance at 300 million?

 

Ronald Acuna and his family are set up for life. It's not always "what can I do to maximize my lifetime net worth." Sometimes it's just "how can I get the rest of my life figured out, remove the uncertainty and stress and be happy."

 

By the math, a 60 percent chance at $300 million is worth $180 million.

 

I can see why someone would sign the deal. But it's still worth much less than he could earn taking the other route. The Braves are delighted to do this.

 

Yes, but in reality it's a 60 percent chance at 300 mil in 5 years, or a 40 percent chance of a total way, way lower than 100 million...plus taking that gamble means he would make substantially less than what he will earn now for the next 3-4 seasons

 

Agreed. I'm not saying he was stupid for signing it. But by nature, team friendly contracts aren't player friendly contracts, and this is a team friendly contract. We just saw what the payout could be for those who go the Machado route.

 

It is possible that $100 million is an incredible sum of money, and even at that, he could wind up grossly underpaid. Both of those statements can be true. It's true of Yelich's current deal, which he signed gladly, but which also gave concessions on the back end.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Generally agreed, yet in Acuna's situation, if he truly proves to be a generational talent there's no doubt in my mind that he could sign a massive FA deal when he is 30 that winds up blowing the $300M 10+ year deals we are talking about now out of the water. Ten years from now $40M AAV contracts will be attainable.

 

Now, if he winds up not being that great or injuries cost him the chance to be great, he still makes a massive amount of money with the deal he just signed after playing roughly 2/3 of 1 mlb season.

[GoToHelfaer]

Generally agreed, yet in Acuna's situation, if he truly proves to be a generational talent there's no doubt in my mind that he could sign a massive FA deal when he is 30 that winds up blowing the $300M 10+ year deals we are talking about now out of the water. Ten years from now $40M AAV contracts will be attainable.

 

Now, if he winds up not being that great or injuries cost him the chance to be great, he still makes a massive amount of money with the deal he just signed after playing roughly 2/3 of 1 mlb season.

 

No doubt. Regardless of this deal being team friendly or not, signing this deal made Acuna and his family financially stable and if he blows his knee out tomorrow, it made him set for life, today. He'll now pocket $100 million regardless of injury or regression.

 

I think if you put me in Acuna's situation and told me I can get a $100 million dollar contract now or play for $560,000 a year and then deal with Arbitration and then re-evaluate in the future to maybe get $300 million, I'd sign now and hope to make up the difference in my age 31 Free Agency.

[HiAndTight]

For those of you who think this is a bad deal, a question for you:

 

Would you rather have a 100% chance at 100 million dollars, or a 60% chance at 300 million?

 

Ronald Acuna and his family are set up for life. It's not always "what can I do to maximize my lifetime net worth." Sometimes it's just "how can I get the rest of my life figured out, remove the uncertainty and stress and be happy."

 

By the math, a 60 percent chance at $300 million is worth $180 million.

 

I can see why someone would sign the deal. But it's still worth much less than he could earn taking the other route. The Braves are delighted to do this.

 

Less than he COULD. How much is the certainty worth to him?

 

How much is it worth that he can map out the rest of his life now knowing what he'll have? How much is it worth that he can just go enjoy the game he loves to play for the next 8 years and not worry about what will happen if he doesn't perform? How much stress does it add to the life of a pre-arbitration player when you get into a slump, you haven't gotten a long-term deal and you start to question if maybe you're not as good as you thought? How much sleep does it cost you and how much do you press and worry about it?

 

Is his life really going to be of less quality and happiness if he has to retire in 8 years with 100M and could have earned 300M if he had played his cards right?

 

There are so many more intangibles at play than just "this is what the chance is worth at this percent because this is the potential dollar amount."

 

 

You're 100 pct right. He's at the very least made generational money for himself and his family. I do believe he's a generational talent.

 

And for the record, it appears that phrase is being thrown around a lot because there seems to be more players doing things from ages 19-22 that are extremely rare than ever before.

[HiAndTight]

I used to have the tagline "it's better to remain silent and be thought an idiot than to speak and remove all doubt."

 

Welcome to the Idiot Club, Jeff Passan...

 

 

Maybe I missed it. What exactly did Jeff Passan say in reference to this contract that would "remove all doubt" that he's an idiot?

 

 

Also...if you're going to quote Lincoln, better to quote him accurately. Pretty sure old 'Abe didn't call anyone an idiot.

[JosephC]

I think the contract is light and wouldn't have recommended Acuna take the deal. Based on what he's done so far, I would estimate his future earnings at:

 

2019 = 0.575

2020 = 0.575

2021 = 12.5 (1st of 4 arbitration years as Super Two)

2022 = 16

2023 = 21

2024 = 26

2025 = 37.5

2026 = 37.5

2027 = 37.5

2028 = 37.5

 

As far as the arbitration process for Super 2's, best recent comparable would be Kris Bryant who got 10.85 million in year one and 12.9 million in year two.

 

Take the first eight years and the total for those 8 years is 151.65. From Acuna's perspective, I'd be more than willing to sacrifice 30% of what would appear to be about the max I could otherwise make. That would put my "want" at 106.155 million. Since he's guaranteed 100 million over the first 8 years, I don't think that part of the contract is bad at all. But I don't like the two option years stuck on the end. 34 million total for those two years, at a critical age range where he might really lose significant value on the free agent market....I don't know if I would have been willing to tie up those two season with team options at all. At a minimum, I would have expect the Braves to pay much closer to the 75 million number than the 34 million that he will likely get unless he busts or is injured.

 

So from his shoes, I would have pretty much demanded the deal be 8 years, 105 million, and to convince me to push it further than that, I would have demanded 10 years, 170 million....but in all honesty would have preferred to keep it at 8 years, 105 million and then try to land another 5+ year deal after the conclusion of year 8.

[HiAndTight]

Yah he is going to regret it if he ends up a superstar and could have made $100mil+ or more. It’s all subjective to your lifestyle. It’s like if you had some collectable that you sold for $50k and in 3 years you would have been able to get $150k. That extra $100k would keep you up at night or atleast highly regret your decision.

 

The comparison also isn’t extreme risk going year to year or this deal. He could have easily not sacrificed all those free agency years and instead gotten slightly less to save some of his free agency. Now he has to hit FA at 31 (if he is a superstar and worth picking up the options). The way FA is going these days...not the safest bet for another major deal.

 

Also no one is considering if he is a super star until 28 or so and then quickly declines. Then by the time he hits FA he isn’t even that good anymore. At 27 he could have had the mega mega deal, but not anymore. Not common, but could certainly happen.

 

At the end of the day can’t fault someone for taking $100mil, but it definitely could turn out badly for him.

 

First of all neither 50K nor 150K will set me up for life. That's the biggest difference, either 100M or 300M is life changing money. If I sold that collectable for 100M and someone else flipped it for 300M in a few years I would be just fine.

 

Going year to year is still a huge risk, he's only making near league minimum for 3 years, more than enough time to end up either with a career ending injury or somehow end up a bust.

 

Also you don't know that the Braves had any interest in a deal without buying out some FA. That's the whole benefit for them. If Acuna wouldn't do it, they might have rather just gone year to year.

 

Yes the odds of him getting a big deal are better at 28 than 31 but that difference doesn't prevent him from necessarily getting another great deal in his 30s like guys such as Goldschmidt, JD Martinez, Cain, etc, have all gotten.

 

 

How about if we turn this around. Which would make you feel more sick to your stomach? Turning down the shot at 100 million at 21 years old to maybe make 300 million later on and then end up having some car accident, catastrophic injury, whatever it may be, and you never make that 100 million, or being so successful in your profession that you made 100 million, but you could have made significantly more?

 

I wouldn't be fine with it like you adambr if I lost out on 200 million, but as I was sitting in my mansion and able to provide for my family, I'd cope. On the other side, if something awful happens and he's out of baseball in 3-4 years, I'd be pretty happy I signed that deal.

[Fear The Chorizo]

I think another key point to consider with this contract is Acuna's own familial history with baseball, where he grew up watching his father toil away in the minors as a once promising international signee prospect who never was able to put all his physical gifts together into becoming a MLB player...Acuna, Sr. was basically Jose Reyes Jr.'s peer in terms of projectable talent when they first signed, but obviously one "made it" in a big way and one never quite did. Acuna, Jr. saw firsthand how fleeting the chance at making it and setting one's family up for life as a MLB star truly is with his father's career. Realizing that financial dream for his family had to have been a motivating factor. He also idolized Reyes growing up, and even though he was one of the game's elite for a few seasons and did benefit financially through free agency, he saw how quickly stardom can fade due to injury/age taking away the physical gifts too soon in a career.

 

Reading through some of the quotes from Braves' brass and Acuna Jr. himself, he's going to be a Brave for life if he does become a superstar - and the Braves will take the Angels' Trout path and extend him with a mammoth deal well before he reaches those $17M option years in his late 20's.

[HiAndTight]

I’d say you are in a pretty small minority if you won’t be bummed losing out on $100mil+. Just saying for almost anyone that is going to give them some regret or bum them out to some extent.

If a person isn't happy with $100M they won't be happy with $300M...

 

 

You can be happy and still be upset with losing out on 200 million dollars.

[HiAndTight]

I think another key point to consider with this contract is Acuna's own familial history with baseball, where he grew up watching his father toil away in the minors as a once promising international signee prospect who never was able to put all his physical gifts together into becoming a MLB player...Acuna, Sr. was basically Jose Reyes Jr.'s peer in terms of projectable talent when they first signed, but obviously one "made it" in a big way and one never quite did. Acuna, Jr. saw firsthand how fleeting the chance at making it and setting one's family up for life as a MLB star truly is with his father's career. Realizing that financial dream for his family had to have been a motivating factor. He also idolized Reyes growing up, and even though he was one of the game's elite for a few seasons and did benefit financially through free agency, he saw how quickly stardom can fade due to injury/age taking away the physical gifts too soon in a career.

 

Reading through some of the quotes from Braves' brass and Acuna Jr. himself, he's going to be a Brave for life if he does become a superstar - and the Braves will take the Angels' Trout path and extend him with a mammoth deal well before he reaches those $17M option years in his late 20's.

 

 

That's a very interesting take. I knew his dad was a pro ball player, but little more. The only thing I would say is that he's already proven he can not only be a good, but great major leaguer. So he's way ahead of where his Dad ever was.

 

Still, at 21, that has to be a pretty strong influence on him and his family. Watching his dad spend his life grinding it out and now he can sign this deal and life in luxury.

 

 

I do wonder if it was the Braves that wanted the extra years or the player. Obviously the Braves wanted FA years or you don't even think about doing this. But the last 2 for instance.....I wonder if the Braves wanted that many FA years in order to commit this much, of if Acuna wanted that guarantee.

 

Either way, just an awesome move if you're a Braves fan. Especially since they seem like one of the cheapest teams in baseball relative to their revenue.

[tmwiese55]

I've been saying for years I don't know how guys turn down the 'bird in the hand' of just locking in more money they'll ever spend for the chance at more. Essentially it's kind of like that Deal or No Deal show with briefcases where you're risking near 0 so most people just lock in a good win rather than risk going to nothing. I guess the last couple FA years have turned these guys to my way of thinking on it, just put the 10s of mil in the bank and you don't have to worry about money no more. That's good, one less thing. So now the chances of that colossal payday or much less than 10 years go and they're opting to just lock in.

[brewcrewdue80]

I think the contract is light and wouldn't have recommended Acuna take the deal. Based on what he's done so far, I would estimate his future earnings at:

 

2019 = 0.575

2020 = 0.575

2021 = 12.5 (1st of 4 arbitration years as Super Two)

2022 = 16

2023 = 21

2024 = 26

2025 = 37.5

2026 = 37.5

2027 = 37.5

2028 = 37.5

 

As far as the arbitration process for Super 2's, best recent comparable would be Kris Bryant who got 10.85 million in year one and 12.9 million in year two.

Take the first eight years and the total for those 8 years is 151.65. From Acuna's perspective, I'd be more than willing to sacrifice 30% of what would appear to be about the max I could otherwise make. That would put my "want" at 106.155 million. Since he's guaranteed 100 million over the first 8 years, I don't think that part of the contract is bad at all. But I don't like the two option years stuck on the end. 34 million total for those two years, at a critical age range where he might really lose significant value on the free agent market....I don't know if I would have been willing to tie up those two season with team options at all. At a minimum, I would have expect the Braves to pay much closer to the 75 million number than the 34 million that he will likely get unless he busts or is injured.

 

So from his shoes, I would have pretty much demanded the deal be 8 years, 105 million, and to convince me to push it further than that, I would have demanded 10 years, 170 million....but in all honesty would have preferred to keep it at 8 years, 105 million and then try to land another 5+ year deal after the conclusion of year 8.

 

I want to say that any generational talent just lost money on this "weak" deal. I bolded what you said about Bryant as you need to look at Mookie Betts who WON his Arb case for Super 2 year 2 at a whopping 20million this year. You do the math that is almost 10million more than last season. It actually makes you almost wonder if he goes all 4 seasons at super 2 if he'd make 100million on that Alone! Acuna's longer 1st cup of tea and 144OPS+ is higher than Betts produced prior to only last season(year 4). This in a much easier hitting environment/Division than Acuna faces. And he's done that at age 20 vs Betts' last season being 21-24 before doing so at 25.

 

I don't know if players are looking at the next deal and predicting it's going in the way of the owners. That Arb results like Betts just got will be a thing of the past. My view though, Betts won his case and you have 2 full seasons before you would reach your first case, giving another Arb. round with increases to occur to see where year 1 stands and what Betts makes next season. That would have given him a real proper value to ask for in an extension like this that probably cost him 100million if not more on it's own.

[adambr2]

I think the contract is light and wouldn't have recommended Acuna take the deal. Based on what he's done so far, I would estimate his future earnings at:

 

2019 = 0.575

2020 = 0.575

2021 = 12.5 (1st of 4 arbitration years as Super Two)

2022 = 16

2023 = 21

2024 = 26

2025 = 37.5

2026 = 37.5

2027 = 37.5

2028 = 37.5

 

As far as the arbitration process for Super 2's, best recent comparable would be Kris Bryant who got 10.85 million in year one and 12.9 million in year two.

Take the first eight years and the total for those 8 years is 151.65. From Acuna's perspective, I'd be more than willing to sacrifice 30% of what would appear to be about the max I could otherwise make. That would put my "want" at 106.155 million. Since he's guaranteed 100 million over the first 8 years, I don't think that part of the contract is bad at all. But I don't like the two option years stuck on the end. 34 million total for those two years, at a critical age range where he might really lose significant value on the free agent market....I don't know if I would have been willing to tie up those two season with team options at all. At a minimum, I would have expect the Braves to pay much closer to the 75 million number than the 34 million that he will likely get unless he busts or is injured.

 

So from his shoes, I would have pretty much demanded the deal be 8 years, 105 million, and to convince me to push it further than that, I would have demanded 10 years, 170 million....but in all honesty would have preferred to keep it at 8 years, 105 million and then try to land another 5+ year deal after the conclusion of year 8.

 

I want to say that any generational talent just lost money on this "weak" deal. I bolded what you said about Bryant as you need to look at Mookie Betts who WON his Arb case for Super 2 year 2 at a whopping 20million this year. You do the math that is almost 10million more than last season. It actually makes you almost wonder if he goes all 4 seasons at super 2 if he'd make 100million on that Alone! Acuna's longer 1st cup of tea and 144OPS+ is higher than Betts produced prior to only last season(year 4). This in a much easier hitting environment/Division than Acuna faces. And he's done that at age 20 vs Betts' last season being 21-24 before doing so at 25.

 

I don't know if players are looking at the next deal and predicting it's going in the way of the owners. That Arb results like Betts just got will be a thing of the past. My view though, Betts won his case and you have 2 full seasons before you would reach your first case, giving another Arb. round with increases to occur to see where year 1 stands and what Betts makes next season. That would have given him a real proper value to ask for in an extension like this that probably cost him 100million if not more on it's own.

 

That's still 3 full years for Acuna to get hurt or have something happen and lose life changing money because he wanted to roll the dice on the life changing money for more life changing money.

 

Also, I know Acuna seems like a sure thing, but nothing ever is. You can break a leg and never play again. You can get a concussion and never be the same again. Or sometimes you can just flat out for whatever reason not end up living up to the hype.

 

I know it's probably not the best comparison but I remember watching Brett Lawrie just set the world on fire as a 21 year old rookie with the Jays and thinking how much we were going to regret trading him. Years later he was out of baseball for a couple years and couldn't even get a major league deal coming back to us. And he's still in his 20s today.

[Ennder]

I'd suggest you guys are just not taking any of the risk into account at all. It is just as likely that Acuna is out of baseball at the end of this contract as he puts up 37 million dollars of value for the final 4 years.

[HiAndTight]

I'd suggest you guys are just not taking any of the risk into account at all. It is just as likely that Acuna is out of baseball at the end of this contract as he puts up 37 million dollars of value for the final 4 years.

 

Based on? There isn't exactly a long list of young phenoms who have been out of baseball by his late 20's after putting up a historically good rookie year at the age of 20.

 

So what would make you suggest such a thing?

 

 

Edit-I, of course, mean position players, not just all players. Obviously, pitchers are a lot more susceptible to injury and the Mark Prior career arch.

 

It's rare an OF'er is this good, this young, this highly touted and then done by the time he's in his late 20's or a bust.

[Oxy]

I'd suggest you guys are just not taking any of the risk into account at all. It is just as likely that Acuna is out of baseball at the end of this contract as he puts up 37 million dollars of value for the final 4 years.

 

Based on? There isn't exactly a long list of young phenoms who have been out of baseball by his late 20's after putting up a historically good rookie year at the age of 20.

 

So what would make you suggest such a thing?

 

 

Edit-I, of course, mean position players, not just all players. Obviously, pitchers are a lot more susceptible to injury and the Mark Prior career arch.

 

It's rare an OF'er is this good, this young, this highly touted and then done by the time he's in his late 20's or a bust.

 

 

The only recent example I can think of is Jason Heyward. Not out of baseball by any means, just an average player making $28 million--which I would call a bust.

[HiAndTight]

I'd suggest you guys are just not taking any of the risk into account at all. It is just as likely that Acuna is out of baseball at the end of this contract as he puts up 37 million dollars of value for the final 4 years.

 

Based on? There isn't exactly a long list of young phenoms who have been out of baseball by his late 20's after putting up a historically good rookie year at the age of 20.

 

So what would make you suggest such a thing?

 

 

Edit-I, of course, mean position players, not just all players. Obviously, pitchers are a lot more susceptible to injury and the Mark Prior career arch.

 

It's rare an OF'er is this good, this young, this highly touted and then done by the time he's in his late 20's or a bust.

 

 

The only recent example I can think of is Jason Heyward. Not out of baseball by any means, just an average player making $28 million--which I would call a bust.

 

That was as close as I could come in recent memory. And since the issue here is finances, it's certainly not applicable to Heyward. I do LOVE looking at Heyward's line since the Cubs gave him 8 years and 184 million though. He's been less than a 2 WAR per year guy on average those three years and it cost them any shot at Harper or Machado. Yet, still...not the worst contract on that team.

[tmwiese55]

You can find a lot of hot prospects who flopped. Probably pretty rare after proving it for a year like this though. But Byron Bruxton pops into my head, can't miss mega prospect who's flopped. Think he'd love 100 mil in the bank. CAn probably go back and look at the top 5 on prospects lists the last 15 years and see tons of guys who never made any money. Nothing wrong with putting more money in the bank than you'll ever spend and just enjoy your life without the financial pressure.