Burnes and Statcast

[JimH5]

From Adam McCalvy's post on MLB.com:

 

Of Burnes’ 12 strikeouts, six came on his sensational slider and six on a fastball that topped out at 96.3 mph, according to Statcast, and featured a remarkable spin rate averaging 2,913 rpm that gives the pitch its rising effect. That’s a record since Statcast came online in 2015 for an outing in which a pitcher threw at least 25 four-seam fastballs.

 

Anything north of 2,600 rpm is considered elite. The previous Statcast record was shared by Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander, at 2,681 rpm.

 

Not sure how calibrated the Statcast equipment is around all the parks, but Burnes set a record today for highest spin rate. He could be an elite starting pitcher, which would be pretty awesome.

[MrTPlush]

I like Burnes a lot and think he had a nice start start despite the end result. I am pretty optimistic both him and Woodruff will figure it out this year soon rather than later. We need two out of the three youngsters to do good for us.

[FVBrewerFan]

Interesting post, thanks! I recall an article on Fangraphs that discussed Peralta's spin rate as high as 2,700. All 3 of these guys have immense potential. Now its all about consistency, and figuring out how to avoid the Yo effect. Which is how to get past 5 innings without throwing 100ish pitches. Getting through the lineup the 2nd time, even a 3rd time. Thats the stage elite pitchers get to, and stuff alone wont get you there.

[clancyphile]

I had Burnes as my #1 vote in three Top 25 polls (Mid-season 2017, Post-season 2017, and Pre-season 2018 - he was only bumped by the emergence of Cam Roegner in Mid-Season 2018, and I considered that a tie).

 

I definitely see him as a TOR-type pitcher, if not an ace. Scherzer and Verlander, though are very heady company...

[HiAndTight]

Interesting post, thanks! I recall an article on Fangraphs that discussed Peralta's spin rate as high as 2,700. All 3 of these guys have immense potential. Now its all about consistency, and figuring out how to avoid the Yo effect. Which is how to get past 5 innings without throwing 100ish pitches. Getting through the lineup the 2nd time, even a 3rd time. Thats the stage elite pitchers get to, and stuff alone wont get you there.

 

 

Burnes seemed like he was pitching with a little bit of that BP mentality today.

 

He looked great for the most part, but maybe he can incorporate that curve or the change he said he'd been working on, pitch backward a bit more, get some soft outs early and save the extra effort for the big spots when you really need a K, he'll move closer toward what you're talking about.

 

I pretty excited by all three of our young starters. I realize they weren't great the first time through, but they're young pitchers. I think they will all progress. They've all got good stuff. Woody might be the best BP options when Nelson comes back, but I really like him as a starter also.

 

 

This is the only thing to me that's more fun than watching playoff baseball. Watching the Brewers develop young players and watching them succeed here. We haven't had much luck with starting pitchers, but it's POSSIBLE that we could have 5 that we developed, 4 that we drafted or signed in our rotation this year in the highly unlikely event that for some reason Nelson is in the rotation and they callup Brown for a start like they did Peralta last year. When was the last time we've had home grown starting pitching this talented? Neugabauer and Sheets?

[Ennder]

It is important to note that spinrate itself is not a sign of quality of pitch. It is just as likely that a low spinrate is good as a high one. You do prefer to be on the outlier side though, the average spinrate fastball is generally the easiest to hit.

[DHonks]

Interesting post, thanks! I recall an article on Fangraphs that discussed Peralta's spin rate as high as 2,700. All 3 of these guys have immense potential. Now its all about consistency, and figuring out how to avoid the Yo effect. Which is how to get past 5 innings without throwing 100ish pitches. Getting through the lineup the 2nd time, even a 3rd time. Thats the stage elite pitchers get to, and stuff alone wont get you there.

 

 

What's weird is that I remember the early years of Yo being extremely efficient, often going 6-7 IP on nice pitch counts. If just seemed that as he lost velocity and his curve, be became more of a nibbler. I loved how early in his career he had an uncanny knack to strikeout guys looking.

[Jenkins5]

It is important to note that spinrate itself is not a sign of quality of pitch. It is just as likely that a low spinrate is good as a high one. You do prefer to be on the outlier side though, the average spinrate fastball is generally the easiest to hit.

 

Also depends on pitch you are throwing and what you want pitch to do. Outliers are most effective. Fastball is a backspin pitch. On fastballs more spin equals more rise. Less spin equals more sink & dive. If you are a K pitcher, you want high spin. Mix that with high velocity, fastball is extremely tough to hit. It’s on hitters quick & with launch angle swings of today, very hard to make contact. Low spin causes many ground balls

 

Curve harder to pinpoint because so many types but more spin traditionally means more effective. Depth and amount of movement is most important. Kershaw spins in at a solid 2,400rpm but drops an outraged amount. Like 9 inches on average.

 

Change & splitters are opposite of fastball and usually more effective with less spin.

 

It’s a newer science & statistics are building around it so not 100% in telling effectiveness. Fastball I think is the most sound one to look at. 96 and high spin like what Burnes threw.... hitters will struggle all season with that if it continues. Velocity & Rise is just so deadly in today’s game. The Ichiro type level pro slap hitters are dying out as uppercut lift swings are all the rage. You can’t effectively lift a rising fastball higher in zone.

[DHonks]

It is important to note that spinrate itself is not a sign of quality of pitch. It is just as likely that a low spinrate is good as a high one. You do prefer to be on the outlier side though, the average spinrate fastball is generally the easiest to hit.

 

Outliers are most effective. Fastball is a backspin pitch. On fastballs more spin equals more rise. Less spin equals more sink & dive.

 

Just wanted to give the caveat that it's the perception of a rising pitch, as technically Isaac Newton says a ball can't rise.

[CheezWizHed]

Technically you are correct about fastballs, but actually wrong about Isaac Newton.